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Between March 2017 to March 2020, data subscribers went up by more than 320 million, while data traffic surged to ~90 billion GBs in fiscal 2020.
After March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic festered, and up to March 2023, the sector is estimated to have added more than 125 million data subscribers. Average data usage per subscriber doubled in this period, leading to data traffic of ~200 billion GBs in fiscal 2023.
Work from home, online classes and over-the-top (OTT) entertainment spurred the spike.
Those habits continued as return to office and schools\/colleges gathered pace amid normalcy after the pandemic.
Now, it’s the turn of 5G<\/a> services to drive medium-term demand in a market that has ~1,140+ million wireless subscribers, second only to China. 5G services have been rolled out in 3,000+ cities within just seven months of spectrum auction, arguable the fastest such execution anywhere.
The continuity of such uptake, however, hinges on unlocking use-cases and ensuring significant improvement in network infrastructure, which is expected to happen only gradually over the next few years.
Even so, about a third of wireless data users in India — or ~300 million subscribers — will likely switch to 5G by March 2025, according to CRISIL Ratings<\/a> estimates. The balance two-thirds will continue using 4G. Given 5G’s superior speeds – believed to be over 20 times that of 4G – data consumption is expected to surge further over the medium term, resulting in India’s data traffic doubling over fiscals 2023-26 to ~400 billion GBs in fiscal 2026.
Put another way, with ~35 GB data consumption per subscriber per month expected by fiscal 2026, India will continue to be among the highest data consuming countries in the world.
How will this dial up the finances of telcos?
The rise in data consumption will certainly increase the sector’s average revenue per user (ARPU) over the medium term. Benefits such as free unlimited 5G data<\/a> offered by telcos currently, and ever-improving access to digital content and rising preference for online gaming should keep inducing subscribers to uptrade to premium tariff plans.
As for tariff hike, telcos have taken broad-based hikes twice in the past three years — 50-60% in December 2019, and another 20-25% in November 2021. Now it’s unlikely to be broad-based in the near term given that telcos focussing on migrating 4G subscribers to 5G. Instead, we expect ongoing rejig in tariffs for select plans and uptrading to drive blended ARPUs to over Rs 250 in the medium term as against an estimated ~Rs 175 as of fiscal 2023, which is among the lowest in the world.
The medium-term upside potential, however, is huge since telcos are not monetising 5G yet; they are offering technology-neutral pricing to drive 5G adoption. As more 5G retail use-cases get unlocked, the potential for tariff hike increases.
But there’s some static in the line.
Unless 5G monetisation<\/a> begins, sector’s return on capital employed (RoCE) would remain modest at 9-10% in the near term. This is because the benefit of improved ARPUs would not be enough to generate healthy returns given the massive capex of Rs 2-2.5 lakh crore planned by telcos to set up 5G networks over the next few years.
The telecom sector is characterised by high capital intensity because of continuous investments required for technological upgradation and spectrum purchase. To be sure, telcos spent >Rs 6 lakh crore for spectrum acquisition and setting up networks between fiscals 2017 and 2023.
This situation is not new. When 4G was launched, telcos weren’t generating adequate returns for their 3G investments.
Now with the humongous spending on 5G rollout, a material rise in ARPU has become imperative for healthy returns.
Over the medium term, as 5G monetisation begins, we expect the sector’s RoCE to improve to 12-14%. This is presuming no major investments will be required to buy spectrum at the forthcoming auctions. All three private telcos are believed to have adequate spectrum to cater to the expected explosion in 5G-driven data consumption over the medium term.
In the road ahead, while rising data consumption augurs well for the sector’s overall growth, a significant upward revision in tariffs anytime soon could lead to faster generation of healthy returns.
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5克,电信公司数据使用响在更好的时代
“数据上升的消费肯定会增加部门的每用户平均收入(ARPU)在中期。好处,如自由无限的5 g电信公司目前提供的数据,和不断完善的访问数字内容和不断上升的倾向于网络游戏应该保持诱导用户uptrade税收优惠计划,“古普塔说。
读到
2017年3月至2020年3月之间,数据用户增加了超过3.2亿个,而数据流量激增2020 ~ 900亿财年GBs。
在2020年3月,当Covid-19大流行开始恶化,到2023年3月,部门估计增加了1.25亿多个用户的数据。每用户平均数据使用在此期间翻了一倍,导致数据流量2023 ~ 2000亿财年GBs。
在家工作,在线课程和过多的(OTT)娱乐刺激了飙升。
这些习惯继续回到办公室,学校/大学步伐。在大流行后正常。
现在,轮到的5克服务推动中期市场需求~ + 1140无线用户,仅次于中国。5 g服务已经推出了3000 +城市仅仅7个月的频谱拍卖,等有争议的最快的执行。
然而,连续性的吸收取决于解锁用例和确保在网络基础设施明显改善,预计只有逐渐在接下来的几年里发生。
即便如此,大约三分之一的无线数据用户在印度——或者~ 3亿用户——可能会切换到5克,2025年3月,根据CRISIL的评级估计。三分之二的平衡将会继续使用4 g。鉴于5 g的优越的速度——被认为是超过20倍4 g -数据消费预计将进一步在中期内,导致印度的数据流量翻倍在财政2023 - 26 ~ 4000亿GBs在2026财年。
换句话说,每用户每月消费~ 35 GB数据预计到2026财政年度,印度将继续成为世界上最高数据消费国。
这将如何拨打电信公司的财务状况?
数据消费的增加肯定会增加部门的每用户平均收入(ARPU)在中期。好处,如自由无限的5 g的数据目前提供的电信公司,和不断完善的访问数字内容和不断上升的倾向于网络游戏应该保持诱导用户uptrade额外关税的计划。
至于关税提高,电信公司已经全面上涨两次在过去的三年里- 50 - 60% 2019年12月,另一个在2021年11月20 - 25%。现在是不太可能在短期内全面考虑到电信公司关注4 g用户迁移到5克。相反,我们预计持续调整关税选择计划和uptrading开车arpu混合,随着Rs 250年中期对估计Rs 175 ~ 2023财年,这是世界上最低的之一。
然而,中期上涨潜力是巨大因为电信公司尚未货币化5克;他们提供技术无关的定价采用5克。随着越来越多的5 g零售用例得到解锁,关税上调的可能性增加。
但是有一些静态的线。
除非5 g货币化开始,部门的资本回报率(RoCE)将在短期内保持谦虚在9 - 10%。这是因为提高arpu的好处还不足以产生健康的回报给2 - 2.5十万的卢比的大规模资本支出计划由电信公司建立5 g网络在未来几年。
电信行业的特点是高资本密集度的连续光谱技术升级和购买所需的投资。可以肯定的是,电信公司花> 6十万的卢比对光谱采集和建立财政2017年和2023年之间的网络。
这种情况并不新鲜。4 g启动时,电信公司没有产生足够的3 g的投资回报率。
现在的巨额支出5 g推出,材料提高ARPU已经成为健康的必要的回报。
在中期内,5 g货币化开始,我们预计该部门的RoCE提高到12 - 14%。这是假设没有重大投资将被要求购买频谱即将拍卖。所有三个私人电信公司被认为有足够的频谱迎合5 g-driven数据消费预期的爆炸在中期内。
在前方的道路,而不断上升的数据消费行业的整体增长前程似锦,很快大幅向上修正的关税可能会导致更快的一代的健康收益。
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