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报告:20%的关税上调将使沃达丰Idea的ARPU在22财年达到140卢比

Motilal Oswal周三发布的一份报告称，20%的关税上调可能会使沃达丰Idea的ARPU在FY22E上升至140卢比，因为经济已经开始在新冠疫情导致的封锁后开放，同时对数据的需求增长不减弱。

报告:20%的关税上调将使沃达丰Idea的ARPU在22财年达到140卢比
新德里:20%的关税上调可能会导致价格上涨沃达丰的想法Motilal Oswal周三发布的一份报告称，印度的ARPU在FY22E达到140卢比，原因是经济在covid - 19导致的封锁后开始开放，同时对数据的需求增长不减弱。

ET曾报道称，资金紧张的电信公司Vi正考虑在年底或明年初将关税提高15-20%，这是在财务复苏和遏制客户损失之间走钢丝。

Bharti Airtel可能会紧随其后，但两者都会密切关注竞争对手依赖Jio两名知情人士向《经济时报》透露，阿里巴巴的举措并相应地调整利率。

该报告称，价格上涨可以为Vi提供额外的现金流，然而，它需要ARPU上涨74%才能实现3000亿卢比的EBITDA，以可持续地解决其23财年的现金义务，包括延期频谱付款。

现金短缺的Vi，欠58254亿卢比AGR费到目前为止，印度已经为会费支付了近800亿卢比，根据政府，余额会费超过了50亿卢比。

报告称，Vi还需要遏制用户流失，以实现价格上涨的好处。在上一轮加息(2019年12月)中，25%的加息使其EBITDA增加了140亿卢比(25%)，而不是估计的430亿卢比。

Vi在21财年第二季度的净亏损从第一季度的2546.7亿卢比大幅收窄至720.34亿卢比，这得益于成本削减措施和较低的减值费用，但继续流失用户——三个月期间流失了800万用户。

该公司表示，随着限制取消，该季度市场活动增加，其用户流失率增加至2.6%(21财年第一季度为2.0%)。

读也

沃达丰Idea在8月份增加了最高宽带用户

沃达丰Idea可能会在2020年底或2021年初将关税提高15-20%

Motilal Oswal金融服务公司该公司表示，由于流动性紧张和业务连续性的清晰度有限，该公司仍在“审查”中。

沃达丰(Vodafone)在撰写本报告时，Idea的股价为9.20卢比，下跌1.08%。

而20%的上涨可以将Bharti Airtel和Jio的ARPU分别提高到178卢比和167卢比。以70%的增量利润率计算，FY22E的EBITDA应分别达到5590亿卢比和1420亿卢比，合并水平分别增长22%和30%。

Motilal Oswal预计，在没有任何关税上调的情况下，Bharti Airtel和Reliance Jio将各自产生640亿卢比的无息现金流(FCF)，其中包括各自1300亿卢比和2800亿卢比的频谱更新成本。

该金融机构表示，继续看好Bharti Airtel和Reliance Jio，目标价格分别为650卢比和900卢比，持有66%的股份。

它还为Bharti Airtel/Reliance Jio分配了11倍/18倍的更高倍数，以从任何潜在的关税上调中获得预期收益，获得更高的市场份额收益


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\"20%<\/figure>NEW DELHI: A 20% tariff hike could drive up Vodafone Idea<\/a>\u2019s (Vi) ARPU to Rs 140 in FY22E, as the economy has started opening up post-Covid-led lockdown along with unabated demand growth for data, a report by Motilal Oswal said on Wednesday.

ET had reported that the cash-strapped telco Vi is considering hiking tariff by upto 15-20% by the end of the year or early next year it walks a tightrope between making a financial recovery and stemming customer losses.

Bharti Airtel<\/a> may follow but both will closely watch rival Reliance Jio<\/a>\u2019s moves and calibrate their rates accordingly, two people familiar with the matter had told ET.

<\/div><\/div>The report said the price hike could provide Vi with additional cash flow, however, it requires an ARPU hike of 74% to achieve an EBITDA of Rs 300 billion to address its cash obligation sustainably in FY23, including the deferred spectrum payments.

Cash-strapped Vi, which owes Rs 58,254 crore as AGR dues<\/a>, has paid nearly Rs 8000 crore till now towards the dues and the balance dues is over Rs 50,000 crore, as per the government.

Vi also needs to arrest its subscriber churn to realize the benefit of the price hike, said the report. In the previous round of hike (December 2019), a 25% hike increased its EBITDA by Rs 14 billion (25%) as against estimates of Rs 43 billion.

Vi sharply narrowed its net loss to Rs 7203.4 crore in Q2FY21 compared with Rs 25,467 crore in the first, helped by cost reduction efforts and a lower impairment charge but continued to lose subscribers--eight million in the three-month period, ET had reported.

Its subscriber churn increased to 2.6% (vs 2.0% in Q1FY21), as the market activity increased during the quarter with lifting up of restrictions, the company had said.

Read also<\/h3>
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Vodafone Idea adds highest broadband users in August<\/h4><\/a><\/div>
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Vodafone Idea may raise tariffs by 15-20% end of 2020 or early 2021<\/h4><\/a><\/div><\/div>
Motilal Oswal Financial Services<\/a> said it maintains Vi under \u201creview\u201d due to its liquidity crunch and limited clarity on business continuity.

<\/div><\/div>Vodafone<\/a> Idea\u2019s shares were trading at Rs 9.20, down by 1.08%, at the time of writing this report.

While a 20% hike could increase Bharti Airtel\u2019s and Jio\u2019s ARPU to Rs 178 and Rs 167, respectively. At 70% incremental margin, EBITDA in FY22E should reach Rs 559 billion and Rs 142 billion at a growth of 22%, 30% at the consolidated level, respectively..

In the absence of any tariff hike, Motilal Oswal expects Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio to generate a post-interest-free cash flow (FCF) of Rs 64 billion each, including respective spectrum renewal costs of Rs 130 billion and Rs 280 billion.

The financial institution said it continues to remain bullish on Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio with a target price of Rs 650 and Rs 900, respectively for a 66% stake.

It has further assigned a higher multiple of 11x\/18x to Bharti Airtel\/Reliance Jio for capturing expected gains from any potential tariff hike, higher market share gains

<\/div><\/div>
Follow and connect with us on Twitter<\/a>, Facebook<\/a>, Linkedin<\/a>, Youtube<\/a><\/div>","NumberOfSentences":{"minfo":"15.0","minfoseo":"15-0"},"AutomatedReadabilityIndex":{"minfo":"14.0","minfoseo":"14-0"},"LastPublishMilliTime":{"minfo":"1605689453263","minfoseo":"1605689453263"},"ReadabilityGradeLevel":{"minfo":"College","minfoseo":"college"},"GadgetsMarkedReviewed":{"minfo":"0","minfoseo":"0"},"HashCode":{"minfo":"-1587954823","minfoseo":"-1587954823"},"latestnewsflag":{"minfo":"1.0","minfoseo":"1-0"},"OriginalImageHeightPx":{"minfo":"900.0","minfoseo":"900-0"},"OriginalImageWidthPx":{"minfo":"1200.0","minfoseo":"1200-0"},"NumberOfCharacters":{"minfo":"2842.0","minfoseo":"2842-0"},"NumberOfWords":{"minfo":"480.0","minfoseo":"480-0"},"key":{"0":{"keyid":"7923605","value":"vodafone idea arpu","smid":"0","keynameseo":"vodafone-idea-arpu","keytype":"","keycount":"totalcount","weightage":"100"},"1":{"keyid":"7035270","value":"Vodafone idea share 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company (read Vi), $1.2 billion (Rs 9,600 crore) of debt is payable by Sep '23, while gross cash balance as of Sep '22 is Rs 200 crore\u2026 So without a capital raise, ARPU for Vi will have to rise by Rs 35 for the company to be able to meet its immediate repayment needs by Sep '23 (including capex, debt and interest expenses),\u201d Goldman Sachs said in a note.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/without-fundraising-vodafone-idea-may-face-rs-6400-cr-cash-shortfall-by-september-say-analysts","seolocationalt":"Without fundraising, Vodafone Idea may face Rs 6,400-cr cash shortfall by September, say analysts","url_seo":"without-fundraising-vodafone-idea-may-face-rs-6400-cr-cash-shortfall-by-september-say-analysts"},"91597463":{"msid":"91597463","stname":"Etisalat gets indirect entry into Indian telecom market with Vodafone stake purchase: Report","artsyn":"Vodafone owns 47% stake in Vodafone Idea and around 10% in the British telecoms major will give Etisalat an indirect stake of 4.67% stake 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market competitiveness: Analysts","artsyn":"\"We believe that VIL would need a meaningful fundraise in near term to participate in 5G spectrum auctions along with strong structural improvement and periodic tariff hikes to meet cash outflows post the end of four year moratorium,\u201d Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse, in turn, said in a note to clients.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/capital-raise-essential-to-vodafone-ideas-competitiveness-opex-lower-than-peers-icici","seolocationalt":"Capital raise essential to Vodafone Idea\u2019s participation in 5G auction, market competitiveness: Analysts","url_seo":"capital-raise-essential-to-vodafone-ideas-competitiveness-opex-lower-than-peers-icici"},"89565528":{"msid":"89565528","stname":"Vodafone Idea hangs by a thread even as silver lining emerges","artsyn":"Last month, Vodafone Idea CEO Ravinder Takkar on raising tariffs said, \u201cIt\u2019s possible that there could be another price hike in 2022 but certainly at some point the price hike will take place. The last one was almost 2 years earlier which I believe is a bit long. We certainly would expect less than two years but in 2022 we will have to see how quickly these prices get embedded. Probably, it could be 2023 as well.\u201d","seolocation":"telecomnews\/vodafone-idea-hangs-by-a-thread-even-as-silver-lining-emerges","seolocationalt":"Vodafone Idea hangs by a thread even as silver lining emerges","url_seo":"vodafone-idea-hangs-by-a-thread-even-as-silver-lining-emerges"},"89083556":{"msid":"89083556","stname":"Reliance Jio ARPU likely to keep rising, but Vodafone Idea Q3 growth not enough","artsyn":"Jio's net profit went up 2.6% sequentially to Rs 3,617 crore, while its quarterly revenue from operations increased more than 3% to Rs 19,347 crore. By contrast, Vi's December quarter net loss widened to Rs 7,234.1 crore, stung by higher operating and interest costs.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/reliance-jio-arpu-likely-to-keep-rising-but-vodafone-idea-q3-growth-not-enough","seolocationalt":"Reliance Jio ARPU likely to keep rising, but Vodafone Idea Q3 growth not enough","url_seo":"reliance-jio-arpu-likely-to-keep-rising-but-vodafone-idea-q3-growth-not-enough"},"88529160":{"msid":"88529160","stname":"TDSAT stays Trai order on MNP on Vodafone Idea appeal","artsyn":"\u201cThe issue noted \u2026 requires consideration. But till decision on the issue raised, respondent shall not take any precitipate action against the appellant,\" TDSAT said on Friday. The matter has been listed on February 22.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/tdsat-stays-trai-order-on-mnp-on-vodafone-idea-appeal","seolocationalt":"TDSAT stays Trai order on MNP on Vodafone Idea appeal","url_seo":"tdsat-stays-trai-order-on-mnp-on-vodafone-idea-appeal"},"87883466":{"msid":"87883466","stname":"Tariff hike to boost Vodafone Idea\u2019s ARPU; help in fundraising: Analysts","artsyn":"Vodafone Idea\u2019s base plan has now increased to Rs 99, compelling consumers to recharge to higher plans, offering a huge push to ARPU. \u201cHowever, this may result in further consolidation of dual SIM cards, increasing churn,\u201d Motilal Oswal said.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/tariff-hike-to-boost-vodafone-ideas-arpu-help-in-fundraising-analysts","seolocationalt":"Tariff hike to boost Vodafone Idea\u2019s ARPU; help in fundraising: Analysts","url_seo":"tariff-hike-to-boost-vodafone-ideas-arpu-help-in-fundraising-analysts"},"87863805":{"msid":"87863805","stname":"After Airtel, Vodafone Idea to raise tariffs by upto 25% from November 25","artsyn":"From November 25, the telco\u2019s price of its entry-level plan will be 25% more expensive at Rs 99, while 11 other mobile phone plans and four data packages will be around or over 20% dearer, Vi said in a statement Tuesday.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/vodafone-idea-to-raise-tarriffs-by-upto-25-from-november-25","seolocationalt":"After Airtel, Vodafone Idea to raise tariffs by upto 25% from November 25","url_seo":"vodafone-idea-to-raise-tarriffs-by-upto-25-from-november-25"},"87099887":{"msid":"87099887","stname":"Vodafone Idea may get Rs 20,000 crore in next two weeks: Report","artsyn":"Vodafone Idea (Vi) is likely to get Rs 20,000 crore as fund infusion in the next two weeks, of which about Rs 7,000-8,000 crore will be injected by its promoters \u2014 Vodafone Group Plc and Aditya Birla Group, while returned bank guarantees (BGs) will comprise the remaining amount, Indian Express reported.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/vodafone-idea-may-get-rs-20000-crore-in-next-two-weeks-report","seolocationalt":"Vodafone Idea may get Rs 20,000 crore in next two weeks: Report","url_seo":"vodafone-idea-may-get-rs-20000-crore-in-next-two-weeks-report"},"85973654":{"msid":"85973654","stname":"Telecom towercos to face upto 1.8 lakh tenancy losses if Vodafone Idea collapses: ICRA","artsyn":"The ratings agency, in fact, expects \u201ctotal tenancies for the tower industry by FY2024 to remain below FY2021 levels\u201d if Vi does not survive and the telecom market is reduced to a duopoly.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/telecom-towercos-to-face-upto-1-8-lakh-tenancy-losses-if-vodafone-idea-collapses-icra","seolocationalt":"Telecom towercos to face upto 1.8 lakh tenancy losses if Vodafone Idea collapses: ICRA","url_seo":"telecom-towercos-to-face-upto-1-8-lakh-tenancy-losses-if-vodafone-idea-collapses-icra"},"85175187":{"msid":"85175187","stname":"Government may have to take the biggest hit if Vodafone Idea fails","artsyn":"According to numbers sourced from various analysts and Vodafone Idea's financial results, at Rs 107, the company remains precariously placed with the lowest average revenue per user (Arpu) among its peers.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/government-may-have-to-take-the-biggest-hit-if-vodafone-idea-fails","seolocationalt":"Government may have to take the biggest hit if Vodafone Idea fails","url_seo":"government-may-have-to-take-the-biggest-hit-if-vodafone-idea-fails"},"79279456":{"msid":"79279456","stname":"20% tariff hike could drive Vodafone Idea\u2019s ARPU to Rs 140 in FY22: Report","artsyn":"A 20% tariff hike could drive up Vodafone Idea\u2019s (Vi) ARPU to Rs 140 in FY22E, as the economy has started opening up post-Covid-led lockdown along with unabated demand growth for data, a report by Motilal Oswal said on Wednesday.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/20-tariff-hike-could-drive-vodafone-ideas-arpu-to-rs-140-in-fy22-report","seolocationalt":"20% tariff hike could drive Vodafone Idea\u2019s ARPU to Rs 140 in FY22: Report","url_seo":"20-tariff-hike-could-drive-vodafone-ideas-arpu-to-rs-140-in-fy22-report"},"77459008":{"msid":"77459008","stname":"Here's what Vodafone Idea needs to survive in India","artsyn":"Vodafone Idea\u2019s survival is hinging on decent-sized capital infusion and industry reforms such as floor tariff and other reliefs, brokerage firm ICICI Securities said in a note on Monday.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/vodafone-idea-needs-capital-infusion-tariff-hike-for-survival-in-india-report","seolocationalt":"Here's what Vodafone Idea needs to survive in India","url_seo":"vodafone-idea-needs-capital-infusion-tariff-hike-for-survival-in-india-report"},"76206471":{"msid":"76206471","stname":"Vodafone Idea may see further upside on likely ARPU growth: CLSA","artsyn":"The brokerage has a buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 12.","seolocation":"telecomnews\/vodafone-idea-may-see-further-upside-on-likely-arpu-growth","seolocationalt":"Vodafone Idea may see further upside on likely ARPU growth: CLSA","url_seo":"vodafone-idea-may-see-further-upside-on-likely-arpu-growth"}}}}" data-news-images="[{"msid":"79279471","msname":"VI","msnameseo":"vi","mediatype":"1","artdate":"2020-11-11 17:57:00.0","caption":""}]" data-newsletter-by="0" data-newsletter-date="a" data-hasbottomcarousel="" data-alldetailsopen="0" data-multipleanalyticshit="" data-deeplink="https://ettelecom.app.link?$deeplink_path=" data-socialshareformat="default">
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