Governments are making multibillion-dollar announcements to deal with the global chip shortage<\/a>. That's unlikely to help at this point and only risks muddying priorities for the future.
Following the U.S. and the European Union<\/a>, Japan has announced large capital investments in the semiconductor<\/a> industry<\/a> as part of a bigger 55.7 trillion yen ($488 billion) economic relief package. All told, over this year and the next, outlays could total close to $200 billion, according to Jefferies analysts. So far, allocation of the funds remains quite vague but much of it is being directed toward future technology, with the goal to fund the build-out of vast parts of the semiconductor supply chain.
While that’s commendable, it doesn’t address the current problem — and never will. Such big, unfocused public allocations tend to get spread all over the place, ultimately impeding actual technological headway. In addition, the shortages we’ve been hearing about are mostly for older chip technology, which has been well-documented.
In Japan’s case, a big part of the $6.8 billion earmarked for the chipmaking industry will be distributed under a freshly established New Energy and Industrial Technology Developmental Organization. In its strategy document for the industry, the government notes that it’s striving to boost cutting-edge logic semiconductors used in various electronic systems, introduce domestic manufacturing “with next-generation” technology, and strengthen “choke points technologies of equipment and materials” that will support the global semiconductor supply chain.
Here’s the thing: These aren’t the sectors that need the help. Consider semiconductor production equipment, or SPE, the machines used to make the chips<\/a>. Funding this sector at this point in the cycle doesn’t make sense. Chips take as long as three months to make, while these machines take far longer. Meanwhile, the industry is extremely cyclical, has always run a structural shortage and 80% of it is concentrated with just a handful of players. That means by the time they’re all in sync, we’ll either end up with overcapacity or not the right kind of machines for the chips we need.
Since the shortage took hold, demand for SPE machines has been up sharply. North American billings, a proxy for demand, rose 36% in October from a year earlier, and were up 38% in the prior month, according to Nomura. The analysts, in fact, raised their growth projections to 39.5% from 35.4%, with total equipment sales to be close to $100 billion this year.
Japan is home to a few of the global leaders, including Tokyo Electron Ltd<\/a> and SCREEN Holdings Co<\/a>. Their earnings have continued to rise along with orders. That’s because early on, when obvious signs of shortages appeared, chipmakers started ordering more of the machinery that always runs on a carefully calibrated balance. The SPE makers have increased production capacity and some have noted they aren’t running up against issues that would hold back their shipments<\/a>. Their exports have continued to rise, too. Subsidies to these makers, at this point, wouldn’t add much value. In fact, chip-related companies in Asia are now striking an optimistic tone, with Micron Technology Inc<\/a>. Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra recently saying that the global semiconductor crunch is easing.
It’s worth investing for the future, no doubt. However, if governments don’t target the areas that are truly sources of bottlenecks, or those that lag behind technologically, then it ends up being misspent. In fact, at the rate industrial technology is evolving, fresh financing should increasingly be targeted toward sectors that are beyond the leading edge, closer to the bleeding edge.
As policy<\/a> makers react to the almost one-year-old shortage, a reassessment for the future needs to happen now. Without that, it won’t be surprising to see shortages and crunches of vital industrial parts in the future.
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政府正在应对全球数十亿美元的公告芯片短缺。这种情况不太可能帮助在这一点上,只有风险使得未来的优先级。
美国和欧盟,日本宣布大量资本投资半导体 行业作为一个更大的55.7万亿日圆(4880亿美元)的经济救援计划。总之,在今年和明年,支出总额接近2000亿美元,据Jefferies分析师。到目前为止,分配基金仍很模糊,但大部分是指向未来的技术,与目标基金绝大部分的建设半导体供应链。
虽然这是值得称道的,它并不能解决当前的问题,永远也不会。这么大,无重点的公共分配会到处传播,最终阻碍实际技术进展。此外,我们一直听到的短缺是大多年龄较大的芯片技术,证据确凿的。
在日本的情况下,很大一部分的68亿美元用于芯片制造业将分布在刚建立的新能源和工业技术发展组织。在行业的战略文件,政府指出,努力提高尖端半导体逻辑中使用各种电子系统,引进国内制造业“下一代”技术,并加强“瓶颈技术的设备和材料”将支持全球半导体供应链。
事情是这样的:这些不是需要帮助的部门。考虑半导体生产设备,或SPE,使使用的机器芯片。资助这个行业在这一点上的周期没有意义。芯片需要长达三个月,虽然这些机器花费很长的时间。同时,这个行业非常的周期性,一直运行一个结构性短缺和80%的集中,而且只有少数的球员。这意味着它们都在同步的时候,我们会最终产能过剩或不合适的机器我们需要的芯片。
短缺开始以来,对SPE机器的需求已经大幅上升。北美比林斯,代表需求,10月份较上年同期上涨36%,前月上涨38%,根据野村。事实上,分析师上调了经济增长预测从35.4%到39.5%,与设备销售总额接近1000亿美元。
日本的一些全球领导人,包括东京电子有限公司和屏幕控股有限公司。随着订单收入不断上升。这是因为在早期,当明显短缺的迹象出现,芯片制造商开始订购更多的机器总是运行在一个仔细校准的平衡。SPE制造商增加了生产能力,有些人说他们不面对问题会阻碍他们的运行出货。他们的出口继续增长。补贴这些制造商,在这一点上,不会增加多少价值。事实上,chip-related公司在亚洲现在惊人的乐观语气,美光科技有限公司。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra最近说,全球半导体危机正在缓和。
值得投资的未来,毫无疑问。然而,如果政府不目标地区的真正来源瓶颈,或那些技术落后,那么它最终被浪费。事实上,在工业技术发展速度,新的融资越来越应该面向行业以外的前缘,接近流血的边缘。
作为政策制造商应对几乎一岁大的短缺,现在重新评估未来需要做的。不,它不会吃惊短缺和仰卧起坐未来至关重要的工业零部件。
政府正在应对全球数十亿美元的公告芯片短缺。这种情况不太可能帮助在这一点上,只有风险使得未来的优先级。
美国和欧盟,日本宣布大量资本投资半导体 行业作为一个更大的55.7万亿日圆(4880亿美元)的经济救援计划。总之,在今年和明年,支出总额接近2000亿美元,据Jefferies分析师。到目前为止,分配基金仍很模糊,但大部分是指向未来的技术,与目标基金绝大部分的建设半导体供应链。
虽然这是值得称道的,它并不能解决当前的问题,永远也不会。这么大,无重点的公共分配会到处传播,最终阻碍实际技术进展。此外,我们一直听到的短缺是大多年龄较大的芯片技术,证据确凿的。
在日本的情况下,很大一部分的68亿美元用于芯片制造业将分布在刚建立的新能源和工业技术发展组织。在行业的战略文件,政府指出,努力提高尖端半导体逻辑中使用各种电子系统,引进国内制造业“下一代”技术,并加强“瓶颈技术的设备和材料”将支持全球半导体供应链。
事情是这样的:这些不是需要帮助的部门。考虑半导体生产设备,或SPE,使使用的机器芯片。资助这个行业在这一点上的周期没有意义。芯片需要长达三个月,虽然这些机器花费很长的时间。同时,这个行业非常的周期性,一直运行一个结构性短缺和80%的集中,而且只有少数的球员。这意味着它们都在同步的时候,我们会最终产能过剩或不合适的机器我们需要的芯片。
短缺开始以来,对SPE机器的需求已经大幅上升。北美比林斯,代表需求,10月份较上年同期上涨36%,前月上涨38%,根据野村。事实上,分析师上调了经济增长预测从35.4%到39.5%,与设备销售总额接近1000亿美元。
日本的一些全球领导人,包括东京电子有限公司和屏幕控股有限公司。随着订单收入不断上升。这是因为在早期,当明显短缺的迹象出现,芯片制造商开始订购更多的机器总是运行在一个仔细校准的平衡。SPE制造商增加了生产能力,有些人说他们不面对问题会阻碍他们的运行出货。他们的出口继续增长。补贴这些制造商,在这一点上,不会增加多少价值。事实上,chip-related公司在亚洲现在惊人的乐观语气,美光科技有限公司。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra最近说,全球半导体危机正在缓和。
值得投资的未来,毫无疑问。然而,如果政府不目标地区的真正来源瓶颈,或那些技术落后,那么它最终被浪费。事实上,在工业技术发展速度,新的融资越来越应该面向行业以外的前缘,接近流血的边缘。
作为政策制造商应对几乎一岁大的短缺,现在重新评估未来需要做的。不,它不会吃惊短缺和仰卧起坐未来至关重要的工业零部件。
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