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No 3 carrier, Idea Cellular<\/a>’s losses, they said, are likely to also mount significantly in the fiscal first quarter as the Kumar Birla led telco is likely to be weighed down by the strain of low tariffs for a disproportionately long period along with the continued migration of subscribers to lower priced bundled packs from higher ones, they said.
For market leader Bharti Airtel, brokerage Nomura estimates a net loss of Rs 500 crore, while Kotak Securities expects it to be around Rs 449 crore. Goldman Sachs<\/a> pegs it significantly lower, at Rs 220 crore. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 83 crore in the January-March quarter, and Rs 367 crore in the yearago period.
Chief executive officer Gopal Vittal told ET this week that Airtel’s India operations are likely to widen net losses in the June quarter — from Rs 652.30 crore in the January-March period — since revenue remains under pressure and costs continue to rise.
Losses at Idea, whose merger with Vodafone<\/a> India has been delayed beyond the June-end timeline, will continue to mount. While Bank of America-Merrill Lynch estimates it at Rs 2,493 crore, Credit Suisse<\/a> expects it to increase to nearly Rs 1,444 crore, from Rs 815 crore a year ago.
Bharti Airtel shares closed 1.01% lower on the BSE on Wednesday at Rs 366.45, while the Idea scrip fell over 3% to Rs 55.15.
Deutsche Bank<\/a> said the “5% depreciation in the rupee in the June quarter is likely to impact Bharti’s reported interest costs via mark-to-market (MTM) forex losses,” given that “around 50% of Airtel’s $14.6 billion debt is FX or forex-denominated”. Such a scenario, it said, is likely to see the “forex impact ballooning to Rs 40 billion in the June quarter from a modest Rs 70 million\/quarter in the last two quarters.”
Nomura has forecast an 11% sequential decline in its India wireless EBITDA(operating income) and a 6% on-quarter drop in its consolidated EBITDA to Rs 6,590 crore.
Credit Suisse expects listed incumbents Bharti Airtel and Idea to report subdued earnings numbers in the April-June period, courtesy the “full quarter impact of Jio’s lower prepaid plans and postpaid tariff cuts”.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch expects Bharti’s India cellular revenues<\/a> to remain largely flattish on-quarter at Rs 10,400 crore as “incremental revenue from the Telenor India acquisition would be offset by downtrading pressure, mainly from postpaid subscribers and the full quarterly impact of international termination rate cuts” that took effect in February.
Kotak Securities agreed that customer movement to the most competitive bundled plans “continues on the back of increasing smartphone adoption”, but said “the pace of such downtrading is moderating”.
Goldman Sachs expects Idea’s “high leverage relative to its peers to continue to be an overhang on the stock, despite recent deleveraging initiatives by the company”. It also expects Idea’s top line growth to lag Bharti, given the No 3 carrier’s “lower network investments” compared to the market leader.
Swiss brokerage UBS estimates Airtel’s consolidated revenue in the FY19 first quarter to fall 11% from Rs 21,958 crore a year ago, but
Kotak builds a near 8% on-quarter ARPU decline for Airtel to Rs 107 and expects Idea’s to drop 5.6% sequentially to Rs 99 in the June quarter, noting that “continued adoption of bundled plans would remain ARPU dilutive for now”.
Analysts though expect the April-June period to see the full quarter revenue contribution from Aircel customers gained by incumbents like Airtel and Idea in the fourth quarter FY18.
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3号航母,知道细胞的损失,他们说,可能也明显第一财政季度山Kumar贝拉电信可能会拖累了应变低关税的不成比例的长期的持续迁移用户从更高的定价较低的捆绑包,他们说。
为市场领袖Bharti Airtel,经纪公司野村估计净亏损500卢比,而科塔克证券预计大约449卢比。高盛(Goldman Sachs)挂钩显著降低,在220卢比。该公司公布净利润83卢比,1季度和367卢比台智能机。
首席执行官Gopal Vittal本周告诉ET, Airtel的印度业务可能会扩大6月季度净亏损1时期——从652.30卢比——因为收入依然面临压力,成本继续上升。
损失的想法,其合并沃达丰(Vodafone)印度一直推迟June-end以外的时间表,将会继续攀升。而美国银行-美林估计在2493卢比,瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)预计它将增加到近1444卢比,从一年前的815卢比。
Bharti Airtel股价周三收盘下跌1.01%在疯牛病366.45卢比,而代币下跌超过3%,至55.15卢比。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)说,“在印度卢比贬值5% 6月季度Bharti的报道可能会影响利息成本通过按市值计价(MTM)外汇损失,“鉴于”Airtel大约50%的146亿美元债务是外汇或forex-denominated”。这种情况下,它说,可能会看到“外汇影响膨胀Rs 400亿6月季度适度Rs 7000万/季度在过去两个季度。”
野村证券预计连续下降11%印度无线EBITDA(营业收入)和上一季度下降6%合并EBITDA 6590卢比。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)预计上市公司Bharti Airtel和想法报告4 - 6月当季收益数字,礼貌的“全季Jio的影响较低的预付计划和邮资已付的关税削减”。
美国银行-美林预计印度Bharti的细胞收入保持很大程度上稍平的一季度10400卢比作为“增量收入Telenor印度收购downtrading将抵消压力,主要来自邮资已付的订阅者和完整的季度国际终止降息的影响,2月份生效。
科塔克证券同意客户运动最具竞争力的捆绑计划“继续增加智能手机采用的”,但他表示“这种downtrading放缓的步伐”。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计想法的“高杠杆相对于同行继续是一个过剩的股票,尽管最近去杠杆化行动的公司”。它还预计想法的顶线增长滞后Bharti,鉴于3号航母的“降低网络投资”相比,市场领导者。
瑞士券商瑞银估计Airtel FY19第一季合并营收下降11%,从一年前的21958卢比
科塔克构建一季度ARPU下降近8% Airtel Rs 107,预计想法的顺序下降5.6% Rs 99 6月季度,指出“继续采用捆绑计划暂时仍将ARPU稀释”。
分析师预计4 - 6月期间虽然看到完整的季度营收的贡献从Aircel客户通过现有第四季度FY18 Airtel和想法。
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