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Airtel<\/a> expects a major 5G rollout in FY24 as a base case, but is ready to accelerate rollout if competitive pressures demand. Management expects capex to trend ~US$3bn over the next two years.
Edelweiss analysts who attended the Airtel analyst day said that there can be lumpiness due to timing and pace of the rollout, leading to higher capex in a year and lower in others even though the telco’s management is guiding for steady capex. “We have seen market share aspirations leveraging new technology driving capex. Hence, we believe, although Bharti is well prepared, accelerated 5G capex impacting the balance sheet, cannot be ruled out.”
Airtel’s management highlighted that the network was 5G ready and had already conducted successful 5G field trials. The late introduction of 5G bestowed cost and efficiency benefits for Indian telcos, Airtel informed analysts.
Airtel, as per analysts, expects 5G rollout on mid-band (3.3-3.6GHz) and mmWave band (26GHz) spectrum providing 5G speeds and capacity with existing 4G network providing coverage.
The telco expects 5G spectrum auctions in May-22\/Jun-22 but a gradual rollout given limited handset readiness (25% of shipments but installed base penetration of ~15% by FY23 and ~25% by FY24).
Bharti Airtel informed analysts that it was working on several enterprise use cases around drone based smart inventory, anomaly detection, connected ambulances, surveillance, port solutions and AR shopping.
The telco reiterated the need for efficiently priced spectrum and indicated the industry<\/a> is unlikely to move forth on spectrum that is not economically viable
Airtel also informed analysts that it sees massive opportunity in the feature phone to smartphone upgrade and expects to further accelerate its 4G net additions in the country. The Sunil Mittal-led telco expects 200 million upgrades by FY26 with 40 million upgrades each year, as per its analyst presentation.
The telco is also aiming for over 40 million home broadband customers by 2025, up from 27 million in 2022 leveraging the local cable operator model in the country.