NEW DELHI: At some point last year, Reliance Industries (RIL) played a major role in the rebound that the benchmark equity indices stages from their March lows. 新德里:去年在某种程度上,信实工业(瑞来斯)中扮演了主要角色的基准股指的反弹阶段较3月份低点。 NEW DELHI: At some point last year, Reliance Industries (RIL) played a major role in the rebound that the benchmark equity indices stages from their March lows.
The rally in RIL shares<\/a> was such that it helped Mukesh Ambani<\/a> climb up the billionaires’ ranks to become the world’s fourth richest with a fortune of nearly $90 billion.
This was when the stock hit a record high of Rs 2,368.80 in September 2020. Since then, the stock has come off 19 per cent, and Ambani's fortunes have dropped to $73.9 billion. He is no more in the top 10 billionaires list. The dominance of RIL shares in the market benchmarks has also reduced significantly, though most brokerages still remain bullish on the stock.
But why?
CLSA said it has an 'outperform' rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 2,250, but believes it would not be easy for the company to deliver on elevated earnings expectations.
While the brokerage sees “hard work and consolidation in 2021” and expects RIL to take steps to strengthen e-commerce and technology offerings, it fears EPS downgrades as telecom tariff hike has been the biggest driver of EPS growth for the oil-to-telecom firm.
“Elevated expectations and earnings are an overhang,” the brokerage said.
Axis Securities said five stocks, including RIL, accounted for 47 per cent of the 6,372-point rally that Nifty witnessed from 7,610 to 13,982 level last year, after making a bottom on March 23.
“RIL’s contribution to the rally has reduced significantly to 13 per cent today from 28 per cent three months back,\" the brokerage said.
Dipan Mehta, Director at Elixir Equities, called RIL’s underperformance a part and parcel of market behaviour. He said the stock had been a strong outperformer in the past three years due to the transformation taking place in the company. “Investors need to be a little patient,” he said.
\"I think the decline we are seeing in Nasdaq is impacting the RIL stock<\/a> as well, because the latter is now positioned more as a digital business. That is where a lot of the value creation happened. Now that there is some softness on that investment theme, we are seeing some selling pressure here. Also, when RIL was rallying, it was the only game in town. It was the only stock where a lot of traders, investors piled on to,” Mehta said.
The RIL stock has fallen 15 per cent in the last three months, compared with a 21 per cent rise in Nifty50.
“But now, the market rally has broadened significantly and there are many investment opportunities and many investment themes, which were not there in the last two-three years. Therefore, money is shifting out of largecaps like RIL, which have generated significant returns. This is perfectly natural. If you still have a 3-5 year view, RIL should still generate pretty decent returns, which will be higher than Sensex and Nifty,” he said.
Chakri Lokapriya, CIO & MD at TCG AMC, said the paus in the RIL stock is not much of a worry with oil prices and demand rebounding across the globe. “Its main underlying oil refinery business will do well and as the execution of each of its new initiatives with Facebook, with Reliance Retail for the local mom-and-pop stores -- as each one of those things roll out, we will begin to see a greater traction in RIL. It is still a good long-term buy. I would continue to hold the stock,” he told ETNOW.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
![](\"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>Reliance Industries' deals lift PE-VC funding to $39bn in ’20, highest in 5 yrs<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>CLSA fears EPS downgrades for RIL but retains outperform<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
What do analysts expect for Q3?
<\/strong>Edelweiss in its oil & gas preview projected RIL’s consolidated Ebitda to dip 8.3 per cent YoY, but increase 8.3 per cent sequentially led by strong petchem margins. It sees gross refining margins (GRMs) at $5.8\/bbl , which would be flat sequentially.
It sees an Ebitda rise of 34 per cent sequentially in the retail business due to higher footfalls amid the festive season and a 6 per cent sequential increase in RJio’ Ebitda. “RJio subscribers would increase to 416 million from 406 million currently, and Arpu to increase to Rs 148 from Rs 145,\" it said.
Emkay Global expects sequential consolidated Ebitda to rise 11 per cent to Rs 21,000 crore on the back of a recovery in retail and O2C income.
“Refining should improve on higher volumes and some improvement in GRMs to $6 per barrel. Petchem should be driven by an 8 per cent QoQ rise in margins. Retail Ebitda is estimated at Rs 2,570 crore, up 28 per cent QoQ (down 6 per cent YoY). For Jio, we expect 75 lakh net subscriber additions and 2 per cent Arpu growth QoQ at Rs 147.90,” Emkay said and projected consolidated PAT post (Jio Platforms-Reliance Retail minority interest) to rise 26 per cent QoQ to Rs 12,000 crore.
Other income should rise while interest cost should fall 23 per cent QoQ due to deleveraging, it said.
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的集会瑞来斯的股票这样就会帮助吗穆凯什•安巴尼爬到亿万富翁的行列,成为全球第四富有的近900亿美元的财富。
这是当股票创下历史新高的Rs 2368 .80 2020年9月。自那以来,股市已经下跌了19%,安巴尼的命运已经下降到了739亿美元。他不再是十大亿万富翁名单。瑞来斯的股票市场基准的主导地位也明显降低,虽然大部分券商仍看好该股。
里昂证券表示,它有一个股票的“跑赢大盘”评级,目标价2250卢比,但认为它不会容易实现高收益预期。
而经纪认为努力工作和2021年整合”,预计瑞来斯采取措施加强电子商务和技术产品,它担心EPS降级为电信关税上调是oil-to-telecom公司每股收益增长的最大推动力。
“高期望和收益是一个负担,”经纪说。
轴五股票证券称,包括瑞来斯,占47%的上涨6372点,漂亮的去年目睹了从7610年到13982年的水平,在底部3月23日。
“瑞来斯对集会的贡献从28%大幅减少到今天的13%三个月回来,“经纪说。
二苯乙腈Mehta主任灵丹妙药股票,称为瑞来斯表现不佳的市场行为的一部分。他说股票是一个强大的佼佼者在过去的三年里由于转换发生在该公司。“投资者需要有点耐心,”他说。
“我认为我们看到在纳斯达克(Nasdaq)是影响下降瑞来斯股票现在,因为后者是定位更多的数字业务。这就是很多价值创造的事情发生了。现在有一些柔软的投资主题,我们看到一些卖压。同时,瑞来斯集会的时候,这是城里唯一的游戏。这是唯一股票很多交易员,投资者蜂拥,”梅塔说。
瑞来斯的股票已经下跌15%在过去的三个月,而Nifty50增长21%。
“但是现在,市场涨势显著扩大,有许多投资机会和许多投资主题,没有过去2 - 3年。因此,资金转移的largecaps瑞来斯一样,已产生了巨大的回报。这是完全自然的。如果你仍然有3 - 5年看来,瑞来斯仍应产生相当不错的回报,将高于Sensex和漂亮的,”他说。
克里Lokapriya, CIO & MD在TCG AMC,说加索尔瑞来斯股票并没有太大的担心全球石油价格和需求反弹。”其主要基础炼油业务的执行将做得很好,每一个与Facebook的新举措,为本地夫妻店信实零售,每一个这些东西推出,我们将开始看到在瑞来斯更大的牵引力。这仍然是一个良好的长期购买。我将继续持有股票,”他告诉ETNOW。
分析师预计,第三季度的什么?
雪绒花在其石油天然气预览预计瑞来斯的合并息税前利润同比下降8.3%,但顺序由petchem强劲利润增加8.3%。它把总炼油利润率(grm) 5.8美元/桶,这将是平坦的顺序。
它看到一个顺序Ebitda增长34%的零售业务由于更高的脚步声在节日期间和RJio顺序增加6%的息税前利润。“RJio用户将从目前的4.06亿增加到4.16亿,和Arpu增加从145卢比148卢比,”它说。
假如全球预计顺序合并息税前利润增长11%,达到21000卢比的零售和复苏O2C收入。
“精炼应该改善于更大的数量和一些改善grm 6美元/桶。Petchem应该由集团利润上升了8%。零售Ebitda估计为2570卢比,不可小觑28%(同比下降6%)。Jio,我们预计75年十万的净新增用户数和Arpu增长2%在Rs 147.90不可小觑,“假如说,预计合并PAT post (Jio Platforms-Reliance零售少数股权)12000卢比上涨26%不可小觑。
其他收入上升,而利息成本应该下降23%不可小觑由于去杠杆化,它说。
The rally in RIL shares<\/a> was such that it helped Mukesh Ambani<\/a> climb up the billionaires’ ranks to become the world’s fourth richest with a fortune of nearly $90 billion.
This was when the stock hit a record high of Rs 2,368.80 in September 2020. Since then, the stock has come off 19 per cent, and Ambani's fortunes have dropped to $73.9 billion. He is no more in the top 10 billionaires list. The dominance of RIL shares in the market benchmarks has also reduced significantly, though most brokerages still remain bullish on the stock.
But why?
CLSA said it has an 'outperform' rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 2,250, but believes it would not be easy for the company to deliver on elevated earnings expectations.
While the brokerage sees “hard work and consolidation in 2021” and expects RIL to take steps to strengthen e-commerce and technology offerings, it fears EPS downgrades as telecom tariff hike has been the biggest driver of EPS growth for the oil-to-telecom firm.
“Elevated expectations and earnings are an overhang,” the brokerage said.
Axis Securities said five stocks, including RIL, accounted for 47 per cent of the 6,372-point rally that Nifty witnessed from 7,610 to 13,982 level last year, after making a bottom on March 23.
“RIL’s contribution to the rally has reduced significantly to 13 per cent today from 28 per cent three months back,\" the brokerage said.
Dipan Mehta, Director at Elixir Equities, called RIL’s underperformance a part and parcel of market behaviour. He said the stock had been a strong outperformer in the past three years due to the transformation taking place in the company. “Investors need to be a little patient,” he said.
\"I think the decline we are seeing in Nasdaq is impacting the RIL stock<\/a> as well, because the latter is now positioned more as a digital business. That is where a lot of the value creation happened. Now that there is some softness on that investment theme, we are seeing some selling pressure here. Also, when RIL was rallying, it was the only game in town. It was the only stock where a lot of traders, investors piled on to,” Mehta said.
The RIL stock has fallen 15 per cent in the last three months, compared with a 21 per cent rise in Nifty50.
“But now, the market rally has broadened significantly and there are many investment opportunities and many investment themes, which were not there in the last two-three years. Therefore, money is shifting out of largecaps like RIL, which have generated significant returns. This is perfectly natural. If you still have a 3-5 year view, RIL should still generate pretty decent returns, which will be higher than Sensex and Nifty,” he said.
Chakri Lokapriya, CIO & MD at TCG AMC, said the paus in the RIL stock is not much of a worry with oil prices and demand rebounding across the globe. “Its main underlying oil refinery business will do well and as the execution of each of its new initiatives with Facebook, with Reliance Retail for the local mom-and-pop stores -- as each one of those things roll out, we will begin to see a greater traction in RIL. It is still a good long-term buy. I would continue to hold the stock,” he told ETNOW.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
<\/a><\/figure>Reliance Industries' deals lift PE-VC funding to $39bn in ’20, highest in 5 yrs<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>CLSA fears EPS downgrades for RIL but retains outperform<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
What do analysts expect for Q3?
<\/strong>Edelweiss in its oil & gas preview projected RIL’s consolidated Ebitda to dip 8.3 per cent YoY, but increase 8.3 per cent sequentially led by strong petchem margins. It sees gross refining margins (GRMs) at $5.8\/bbl , which would be flat sequentially.
It sees an Ebitda rise of 34 per cent sequentially in the retail business due to higher footfalls amid the festive season and a 6 per cent sequential increase in RJio’ Ebitda. “RJio subscribers would increase to 416 million from 406 million currently, and Arpu to increase to Rs 148 from Rs 145,\" it said.
Emkay Global expects sequential consolidated Ebitda to rise 11 per cent to Rs 21,000 crore on the back of a recovery in retail and O2C income.
“Refining should improve on higher volumes and some improvement in GRMs to $6 per barrel. Petchem should be driven by an 8 per cent QoQ rise in margins. Retail Ebitda is estimated at Rs 2,570 crore, up 28 per cent QoQ (down 6 per cent YoY). For Jio, we expect 75 lakh net subscriber additions and 2 per cent Arpu growth QoQ at Rs 147.90,” Emkay said and projected consolidated PAT post (Jio Platforms-Reliance Retail minority interest) to rise 26 per cent QoQ to Rs 12,000 crore.
Other income should rise while interest cost should fall 23 per cent QoQ due to deleveraging, it said.
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