<\/em>
In an interview with ETMarkets, Misra who has a rich experience of over 23 years in institutional and private equity said: “Thus, sectors such as banking financial services, telecom, automobiles are expected to be amongst the bigger earnings drivers. Other secular sectors such as IT, consumer, and healthcare will also deliver steady growth,” Edited excerpts:<\/em>
In the first six months of 2022 – benchmark indices touched a fresh 52-week low. Where are markets headed in the next six months?
<\/strong>Even though we have a constructive view on the markets, it is difficult to suggest a market direction in the short term but for investors with a longer\/one year plus horizon, I expect markets would have given satisfactory returns versus alternate asset classes.
The carnage was seen in the small & midcap space in the first half of 2022. Do you think the excesses are now gone and we are sitting in a comfortable position with respect to valuations?
<\/strong>In aggregate, the corrections are not steep though individual stocks have been hit much more. Thus, on a YTD basis, the relative underperformance of the midcap\/small-cap index to Nifty has been at 4%\/16% while over a longer 1.5- 2 year period the mid and small caps are outperforming by a strong +15% and more.
In the preceding 18 months domestic mid and small-cap funds have seen larger inflows and direct retail interest has been stronger in this zone.
Despite the YTD correction, the midcap category is still trading at a reasonable premium to its average over the large-cap while the small-cap valuations in the aggregate are more comfortable.
However, corrections in prices and valuations must be looked at on a stock-by-stock basis after incorporating for the change in operating conditions and business outlook.
I believe selectively there are businesses that are available at reasonable valuations in these categories. Historically, the midcap category produces amongst a higher percentage of outperforming stocks, especially in strong rising markets.
How do we stack up against global peers after the recent fall?
<\/strong>On a YTD basis, the Indian market fall of around 10% reflected supply shock concerns that emerged after the Ukraine issue.
In this period, resource-driven markets such as Indonesia and Brazil have held up better while India’s fall is around the mid-point across countries.
On the other hand, and despite the YTD correction, Indian markets are amongst the better-performing markets globally with near flat returns over the last year. Valuations are in a comfortable zone versus our own past.
Valuations vis a vis other markets are at the higher range but India does have a comparatively robust growth outlook, wider sectoral representation, improving corporate balance sheets and a strong structural story to support it.
Where do you see commodity prices heading in the next six months of 2022?
<\/strong>I would expect commodity prices to be steady with an upward bias as the base case in this period. After the Ukraine shock the geopolitical premium has ebbed.
Overall, the metal price outlook will depend on global growth and industrial outlook and in particular will depend on the strength of the Chinese reopening and the success of its policy-induced recovery.
A revival in Chinese real estate, if it happens, will be a plus for commodities. Otherwise, the western central bank tightening will be a headwind for commodities.
Given the past history, the recent weakness in copper in particular does suggest a softening global outlook at least in manufacturing.
Crude on the other hand is driven by other dynamics. Possibilities of increased supply from US shale gas, successful diversion of Russian supply to new markets, success in geopolitical deals- Iran, etc will have a bearing on the supply side.
Otherwise, high inflation and monetary response could hurt demand at the margins and prevent an upward reset of prices.
However, given the volatile and finely balanced situation, any small shock can lead to crude spiking from the current levels.
The first six months of 2022 saw – war, inflation, Fed rate hike, rise in interest rates, crude oil @$120 and supply disruptions. Do you think these factors will play a major role in H22022?
<\/strong>Many of these are relevant and to be kept an eye on in the second half but possibly the shock and awe element will not be at play.
Hopefully, there is no escalation in war, and supply disruptions are easing as demand for goods is moderating led by a shift towards consumption of services and monetary tightening.
However, in the western world, it remains to be seen whether inflation is more deeply entrenched than hoped for.
Similarly, policy response can be inappropriate for the evolving situation while any small issue on the already tight supply side can lead to a spike in crude prices.
Overall, I hope these factors have a much lesser impact on domestic growth, inflation, and corporate earnings than what they already have in the first half.
How are earnings likely to pan out in H22022 or the rest of FY23 amid global headwinds and supply bottlenecks?
<\/strong>We expect earnings to be broad-based than what we have seen in the preceding 1-2 years. Except for another global shock, some of the current global headwinds should moderate in the second half.
Global supply bottlenecks for manufactured goods are already weakening at the margins. Otherwise, any hardening of commodity prices helps the commodity segment of the market deliver higher earnings and make up for the pressure on manufacturing margins while the reverse also holds.
Corporate earnings for the next couple of years are going to be driven by sectors that are emerging from a cyclical downturn or structural cleanup and the earnings of these sectors are unlikely to be impacted under the foreseeable circumstances.
Thus, sectors such as banking financial services, telecom, and automobiles are expected to be among the bigger earnings drivers. Other secular sectors such as IT, consumer, and healthcare will also deliver steady growth.
We are down in double digits from high but still not in a bear market. Can we say that this is March 2020 moment for retail investors, and they should not lose this opportunity?
<\/strong>These times are relevant for all investors with a long-term horizon. These are times to be building appropriate equity allocations wherever underweight.
While the markets can still be volatile in the weeks ahead, these are good times to build equity weights in a staggered manner.
Which sectors are likely to hog the limelight in H22022 and why?
<\/strong>Notwithstanding the supply shock-induced inflation and the ongoing monetary tightening we expect robust growth in the economy. Post the re-opening after Omicron and despite the Ukraine issue, high-frequency data suggests growth – consumption\/investment is broadly underway.
I believe good and well-run businesses across many sectors should do well. I would expect select stocks within the banking and non-banking, automobiles, real estate beneficiaries, and other consumption plays to do well.
Within BFS – improving credit growth outlook, healthy asset quality, capital adequacy, and reasonable valuations should help. Amongst other categories robust growth should benefit strong franchises to grow profitably.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)<\/em>
<\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":92659325,"title":"Taiwan's Foxconn raises full year outlook on strong tech demand","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/taiwans-foxconn-raises-full-year-outlook-on-strong-tech-demand\/92659325","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[{"msid":"92657261","title":"GAURAV MISRA-1200","entity_type":"IMAGES","seopath":"markets\/expert-view\/etmarkets-smart-talk-bfsi-telecom-auto-are-likely-to-drive-earnings-for-next-couple-of-years-gaurav-misra\/gaurav-misra-1200","category_name":"ETMarkets Smart Talk: BFSI, telecom, auto are likely to drive earnings for next couple of years: Gaurav Misra","synopsis":false,"thumb":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/thumb\/img-size-30278\/92657261.cms?width=150&height=112","link":"\/image\/markets\/expert-view\/etmarkets-smart-talk-bfsi-telecom-auto-are-likely-to-drive-earnings-for-next-couple-of-years-gaurav-misra\/gaurav-misra-1200\/92657261"},{"msid":"92635568","title":"ETMarkets Smart Talk: US Fed likely to raise rates by 150-200 bps in 2022; use dip to buy for 5 years: Siddharth Mehta","entity_type":"ARTICLE","seopath":"markets\/expert-view\/etmarkets-smart-talk-us-fed-likely-to-raise-rates-by-150-200-bps-in-2022-use-dip-to-buy-for-5-years-siddharth-mehta","category_name":"Expert Views","synopsis":"\"Our view is that from a 5\u20137-year perspective, many of these variables will play out and get reflected appropriately in stock prices. High-quality businesses with dominant competitive advantages have the appropriate levers to pull in difficult periods and we believe that they in fact will come through this period and go on to become larger and more dominant.\"","thumb":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/thumb\/img-size-37800\/92635568.cms?width=150&height=112","link":"\/news\/markets\/expert-view\/etmarkets-smart-talk-us-fed-likely-to-raise-rates-by-150-200-bps-in-2022-use-dip-to-buy-for-5-years-siddharth-mehta\/92635568"},{"msid":"92632808","title":"One can invest 50% now and remaining 50% if Nifty breaks below 15,200 in July: Rahul Sharma","entity_type":"ARTICLE","seopath":"markets\/expert-view\/one-can-invest-50-now-and-remaining-50-if-nifty-breaks-below-15200-in-july-rahul-sharma","category_name":"Expert Views","synopsis":"\"Investors are advised to stay put and in fact, use volatility to accumulate quality businesses at good prices in this month. One can invest 50% at current levels and the remaining 50% can be invested if the Nifty corrects down to 15,200 in July. A breach of 15,800\/15,930 resistance area can push the Nifty upwards of the 16,200-16,500 zone.\"","thumb":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/thumb\/img-size-30390\/92632808.cms?width=150&height=112","link":"\/news\/markets\/expert-view\/one-can-invest-50-now-and-remaining-50-if-nifty-breaks-below-15200-in-july-rahul-sharma\/92632808"},{"msid":"92650322","title":"Amber light on; see clearer skies by Diwali or December: Maneesh Dangi","entity_type":"ARTICLE","seopath":"markets\/expert-view\/amber-light-on-see-clearer-skies-by-diwali-or-december-maneesh-dangi","category_name":"Expert Views","synopsis":"\u201cThe macro is no longer as dark a red as it was appearing in October, November, December. It is turning amber again and perhaps it is the beginning of the end to use a clich\u00e9. So to that extent, maybe there are clearer skies ahead in a couple of months\u2019 time. Remember, time to short bond and equity both are behind us.\u201d","thumb":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/thumb\/img-size-53773\/92650322.cms?width=150&height=112","link":"\/news\/markets\/expert-view\/amber-light-on-see-clearer-skies-by-diwali-or-december-maneesh-dangi\/92650322"},{"msid":"92648368","title":"Book profits & take the cash home as policies are changing: Ajay Srivastava","entity_type":"ARTICLE","seopath":"markets\/expert-view\/book-profits-take-the-cash-home-as-policies-are-changing-ajay-srivastava","category_name":"Expert Views","synopsis":"\u201cFrom investor standpoint, one needs to be realistic about long-term aspirations on equity market and more critically, book your profit because when the economic policy changes as a total of the world and not only in India today, we will never know it and all your profits will disappear. \u201d","thumb":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/thumb\/img-size-20580\/92648368.cms?width=150&height=112","link":"\/news\/markets\/expert-view\/book-profits-take-the-cash-home-as-policies-are-changing-ajay-srivastava\/92648368"}],"msid":92659553,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"BFSI, telecom, auto are likely to drive earnings for next couple of years: Gaurav Misra","synopsis":"\"Corrections in prices and valuations must be looked at on a stock-by-stock basis after incorporating for the change in operating conditions and business outlook. I believe selectively there are businesses that are available at reasonable valuations in these categories. Historically, the midcap category produces amongst a higher percentage of outperforming stocks, especially in strong rising markets.\"","titleseo":"telecomnews\/bfsi-telecom-auto-are-likely-to-drive-earnings-for-next-couple-of-years-gaurav-misra","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Kshitij Anand","author_link":"\/author\/479257392\/kshitij-anand","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479257392.cms?width=100&height=100&hostid=268","author_additional":{"thumbsize":true,"msid":479257392,"author_name":"Kshitij Anand","author_seo_name":"kshitij-anand","designation":"Editor - Markets and Finance","agency":false}}],"analytics":{"comments":0,"views":127,"shares":0,"engagementtimems":635000},"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ETMarkets.com","artdate":"2022-07-04 20:20:38","lastupd":"2022-07-04 20:21:07","breadcrumbTags":["stocks to buy","mirae asset investment managers","gaurav misra","etmarkets smart talk","earnings season","Sensex | Nifty","expert view","stock market","smart talk","industry"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/bfsi-telecom-auto-are-likely-to-drive-earnings-for-next-couple-of-years-gaurav-misra"}}" data-authors="[" kshitij anand"]" data-category-name="" data-category_id="" data-date="2022-07-04" data-index="article_1">
- Telecom乐动扑克News
- 6分钟阅读
BFSI、电信、汽车可能会推动未来几年的收益:Gaurav Misra
“价格修正和估值必须看着stock-by-stock基础上合并后操作条件的变化和商业前景。我相信有选择地有企业在这些类别的合理估值。从历史上看,中型股类别之间产生一个更高比例的表现优于股市,尤其是在强大的市场上升。”
读到
“未来几年公司业绩会受到行业是新兴的周期性衰退或结构性清理和这些行业的收入不太可能影响在可预见的情况下,”说Gaurav Misra联席主管——股票、未来资产投资经理。
采访中ETMarkets, Misra超过23年的丰富经验在机构和私人股本说:“因此,银行业金融服务等行业,电信,汽车预计将在更大的业绩增长点。其他世俗等行业、消费者和医疗也将实现稳定增长,”编辑摘录:
在2022年的前六个月,基准指数触及52周低点。市场朝着未来六个月在哪里?
即使在市场上我们有建设性的观点,很难建议投资者短期内市场方向,但与更长的/一年+地平线,我预计市场会给满意回报与替代资产类别。
屠杀的小型和中型股空间在2022年上半年。你觉得过度现在走了,我们坐在一个舒适的位置对估值?
总的来说,修正不陡峭但个股受到的冲击更多。因此,根据epfr,中型股/小型股指数的表现相对较差,漂亮的一直在4% / 16%,长1.5 - 2年中期和小型股表现强势+ 15%甚至更多。
前18个月国内中小基金已经看到更大的资本流入和直接零售的兴趣已经在该区域。
尽管epfr校正,中型股类别仍然是其平均溢价交易在一个合理的大型而聚合的小盘股估值更舒适。
然而,在价格和估值修正后必须看着stock-by-stock基础上合并操作条件的变化和商业前景。
我相信有选择地有企业在这些类别的合理估值。从历史上看,中型股类别之间产生一个更高比例的表现优于股市,尤其是在市场强劲上升。
我们如何与全球同行在近期下跌?
根据epfr,印度市场下跌10%左右的反映供给冲击担心乌克兰后出现的问题。
在此期间,因印度尼西亚和巴西等市场有了更好的印度的秋天是各国在中点。
另一方面,尽管,使校正,印度市场在全球市场的公寓附近返回过去一年。估值在舒适区与自己的过去。
估值与其他市场更高的范围,印度确实有一个相对强劲的增长前景,更广泛的部门表示,改善公司的资产负债表和强大的结构性的故事来支持它。
你在哪里看到大宗商品价格朝着2022年的未来六个月吗?
我预计大宗商品价格将稳定高的基本情况。在乌克兰冲击地缘政治的溢价已经消退。
总的来说,金属价格前景将取决于全球经济增长和工业前景,特别是将取决于中国的力量重新开放,其政策性的成功复苏。
中国房地产的复苏,如果它发生,加上对大宗商品。否则,西方中央银行收紧对大宗商品将是一个不利因素。
考虑到过去的历史,特别是最近疲软的铜确实表明全球经济前景不断走软,至少在制造业。
原油另一方面是由其他动力学。从美国页岩气供应增加的可能性,成功转移俄罗斯供应的新市场,在地缘政治的成功交易——伊朗等轴承在供应方面。
否则,高通货膨胀和货币政策可能会损害利润率和防止向上复位的需求价格。
然而,考虑到动荡和平衡的情况下,任何小的冲击会导致原油飙升从当前水平。
2022年的前六个月——战争,通货膨胀,美联储加息,加息、原油@ 120美元,供应中断。你认为这些因素在H22022将发挥重要的作用?
许多这些相关和保持关注下半年但可能震慑元素将不会起作用。
希望没有战争升级,和供应中断是宽松是商品需求放缓由服务和收紧货币政策的转向消费。
然而,在西方世界,还有待观察通货膨胀是否比希望更根深蒂固。
同样,政策反应可以在任何适合发展形势本已供应紧张这方面小问题会导致原油价格飙升。
总而言之,我希望这些因素的影响小得多的国内增长,通货膨胀,企业盈利比他们已经在今年上半年。
收益如何可能在H22022锅或其他FY23在全球阻力和供应瓶颈?
我们期望收益比我们看到的要广泛的前1 - 2年。除了另一场全球危机,当前全球的一些不利因素应该在下半年温和。
全球供应瓶颈的制成品已经削弱利润率。否则,任何硬化的大宗商品价格有助于市场的大宗商品市场带来更高的收益和弥补制造业利润率的压力而反过来也成立。
企业盈利在未来几年将由行业新兴的周期性衰退或结构性清理和这些行业的收入在可预见的情况下不太可能受到影响。
因此,银行金融服务等行业,电信,和汽车预计将在更大的业绩增长点。其他世俗等行业、消费者和医疗也将实现稳定增长。
我们在从高两位数,但仍然没有进入熊市。我们能说这是对散户投资者2020年3月的时刻,他们不应该失去这个机会?
这些时间是相关的长线投资者。我们的时代是建立适当的股权分配无论体重过轻。
虽然市场在未来几周仍然可以不稳定,这些都是好时光交错的方式构建股票权重。
哪些行业可能在H22022风头最健,为什么?
尽管供应触觉的通货膨胀和不断收紧货币政策,我们预计经济强劲增长。帖子后重新开张ο尽管乌克兰问题,高频数据显示增长——消费/投资广泛展开。
我相信好的跨许多行业和运营良好的企业应该做的很好。我希望在银行和非银行选择股票,汽车、房地产的受益者和其他消费中做得很好。
在石——信贷增长前景改善,健康资产质量、资本充足率、合理的估值应该帮助。在其他类别盈利增长强劲的增长应该会获益强有力的地位。
(免责声明:建议,建议,观点和意见的专家。这些不代表经济时期的观点)
采访中ETMarkets, Misra超过23年的丰富经验在机构和私人股本说:“因此,银行业金融服务等行业,电信,汽车预计将在更大的业绩增长点。其他世俗等行业、消费者和医疗也将实现稳定增长,”编辑摘录:
在2022年的前六个月,基准指数触及52周低点。市场朝着未来六个月在哪里?
即使在市场上我们有建设性的观点,很难建议投资者短期内市场方向,但与更长的/一年+地平线,我预计市场会给满意回报与替代资产类别。
屠杀的小型和中型股空间在2022年上半年。你觉得过度现在走了,我们坐在一个舒适的位置对估值?
总的来说,修正不陡峭但个股受到的冲击更多。因此,根据epfr,中型股/小型股指数的表现相对较差,漂亮的一直在4% / 16%,长1.5 - 2年中期和小型股表现强势+ 15%甚至更多。
前18个月国内中小基金已经看到更大的资本流入和直接零售的兴趣已经在该区域。
尽管epfr校正,中型股类别仍然是其平均溢价交易在一个合理的大型而聚合的小盘股估值更舒适。
然而,在价格和估值修正后必须看着stock-by-stock基础上合并操作条件的变化和商业前景。
我相信有选择地有企业在这些类别的合理估值。从历史上看,中型股类别之间产生一个更高比例的表现优于股市,尤其是在市场强劲上升。
我们如何与全球同行在近期下跌?
根据epfr,印度市场下跌10%左右的反映供给冲击担心乌克兰后出现的问题。
在此期间,因印度尼西亚和巴西等市场有了更好的印度的秋天是各国在中点。
另一方面,尽管,使校正,印度市场在全球市场的公寓附近返回过去一年。估值在舒适区与自己的过去。
估值与其他市场更高的范围,印度确实有一个相对强劲的增长前景,更广泛的部门表示,改善公司的资产负债表和强大的结构性的故事来支持它。
你在哪里看到大宗商品价格朝着2022年的未来六个月吗?
我预计大宗商品价格将稳定高的基本情况。在乌克兰冲击地缘政治的溢价已经消退。
总的来说,金属价格前景将取决于全球经济增长和工业前景,特别是将取决于中国的力量重新开放,其政策性的成功复苏。
中国房地产的复苏,如果它发生,加上对大宗商品。否则,西方中央银行收紧对大宗商品将是一个不利因素。
考虑到过去的历史,特别是最近疲软的铜确实表明全球经济前景不断走软,至少在制造业。
原油另一方面是由其他动力学。从美国页岩气供应增加的可能性,成功转移俄罗斯供应的新市场,在地缘政治的成功交易——伊朗等轴承在供应方面。
否则,高通货膨胀和货币政策可能会损害利润率和防止向上复位的需求价格。
然而,考虑到动荡和平衡的情况下,任何小的冲击会导致原油飙升从当前水平。
2022年的前六个月——战争,通货膨胀,美联储加息,加息、原油@ 120美元,供应中断。你认为这些因素在H22022将发挥重要的作用?
许多这些相关和保持关注下半年但可能震慑元素将不会起作用。
希望没有战争升级,和供应中断是宽松是商品需求放缓由服务和收紧货币政策的转向消费。
然而,在西方世界,还有待观察通货膨胀是否比希望更根深蒂固。
同样,政策反应可以在任何适合发展形势本已供应紧张这方面小问题会导致原油价格飙升。
总而言之,我希望这些因素的影响小得多的国内增长,通货膨胀,企业盈利比他们已经在今年上半年。
收益如何可能在H22022锅或其他FY23在全球阻力和供应瓶颈?
我们期望收益比我们看到的要广泛的前1 - 2年。除了另一场全球危机,当前全球的一些不利因素应该在下半年温和。
全球供应瓶颈的制成品已经削弱利润率。否则,任何硬化的大宗商品价格有助于市场的大宗商品市场带来更高的收益和弥补制造业利润率的压力而反过来也成立。
企业盈利在未来几年将由行业新兴的周期性衰退或结构性清理和这些行业的收入在可预见的情况下不太可能受到影响。
因此,银行金融服务等行业,电信,和汽车预计将在更大的业绩增长点。其他世俗等行业、消费者和医疗也将实现稳定增长。
我们在从高两位数,但仍然没有进入熊市。我们能说这是对散户投资者2020年3月的时刻,他们不应该失去这个机会?
这些时间是相关的长线投资者。我们的时代是建立适当的股权分配无论体重过轻。
虽然市场在未来几周仍然可以不稳定,这些都是好时光交错的方式构建股票权重。
哪些行业可能在H22022风头最健,为什么?
尽管供应触觉的通货膨胀和不断收紧货币政策,我们预计经济强劲增长。帖子后重新开张ο尽管乌克兰问题,高频数据显示增长——消费/投资广泛展开。
我相信好的跨许多行业和运营良好的企业应该做的很好。我希望在银行和非银行选择股票,汽车、房地产的受益者和其他消费中做得很好。
在石——信贷增长前景改善,健康资产质量、资本充足率、合理的估值应该帮助。在其他类别盈利增长强劲的增长应该会获益强有力的地位。
(免责声明:建议,建议,观点和意见的专家。这些不代表经济时期的观点)
评论
现在评论 阅读评论(1)所有评论
找到这个评论进攻?
下面选择你的理由并单击submit按钮。这将提醒我们的版主采取行动