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Houston, we have a problem!
U.S. rocket companies are facing the daunting task of ferrying hundreds of satellites to space in the coming years as sanctions sideline the Russian space launch industry<\/a>.
SpaceX, Astra Space and Rocket Lab USA are among a handful of U.S. companies expected to fill the vacuum, but industry officials have doubts about their capacity to quickly ramp-up.
As the race between companies, including Elon Musk-owned SpaceX's Starlink and Amazon.com Inc's Project Kuiper, for building giant satellite constellations to beam broadband internet from space heats up, demand for launches is expected to skyrocket.
More than 800 satellites under 100 kilograms are expected to be put in orbit this year alone, nearly double the number of launches in 2021, according to data from launch service aggregator Precious Payload.
And with Project Kuiper taking up significant capacity over the next few years, analysts expect the industry to face some launch-related delays.
\"Come 2024, 2025, when all these mega constellations need a launch, there is going to be a real problem,\" Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck told Reuters, referring to the networks of communications satellites being built by SpaceX, AST Spacemobile and OneWeb.
Rocket Lab is among a new breed of firms building miniaturized propulsion systems to cash in on an exponential rise in demand for putting compact satellites in the so-called low earth orbit.
In 2021, satellites launched by OneWeb and SpaceX accounted for the launch of about three-quarters of small satellites, according to industry analytics firm BryceTech.
Still, Russia<\/a> maintained a 16% share of the global launch market over the past five years, according to historical databases.
Its share was actually larger, given that Soyuz rockets were also launched under a since-suspended French-Russian joint venture named Starsem.
About two-thirds of Soyuz launches were commercial or in support of the International Space Station (ISS), while the rest were for Russia's domestic customers, Quilty Analytics analyst Caleb Henry said.
If access to Russia's capabilities are lost due to Western sanctions on the country for its invasion of Ukraine, companies in Europe and the United States will have to quickly step in to meet demand.
That, however, may not be all that easy, given the complexities and challenges involved in building and launching new rockets.
\"It is always possible that new vehicles will come online faster, thanks to improved manufacturing techniques, but precedent suggests it will be difficult to achieve high launch cadences for the next few years,\" analyst Henry said.
Rocket Lab's Beck said the launch crisis would also apply to smaller satellites used to image the Earth and conduct scientific observation that usually share a ride to orbit on a rocket with other satellites.
Launch Crunch<\/strong>
Delayed launches can affect satellite internet companies in multiple ways. There is a risk of losing launch rights if they do not adhere to an FCC mandated deadline, while some firms may not see return on investment unless their satellite is in orbit.
United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing Co and Lockheed Martin, is set to replace its Russian engines with those made by Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin. Still, Western launch companies have a long way to go.
However, Amazon's blockbuster launch contracts for Project Kuiper can incentivize rocket makers to speed up production, industry experts say.
SpaceX's Starship launch vehicle is set to be in mass production sooner and analysts expect it to meet some demand. The company also launches satellites for and operates Starlink.
\"Longer term, launch constraints can be alleviated by Starship. Starship could crush pricing in the commercial market if Elon wants to, but my prediction is he is much more focused on getting humans to Mars,\" said Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu.
Yu added that \"new space companies\" such as SpaceX, Rocket Lab and Astra Space are the winners when demand rises and there is no dependence from satellite manufacturers around the world on Russia's Soyuz rocket.
Earlier this year, OneWeb decided to abandon Russian launch services and signed a deal with rival SpaceX to put its satellites in orbit.
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能力危机可能中止美国制裁威胁俄罗斯发射卫星繁荣
超过800 100公斤以下的卫星将在轨道上仅今年一年,近一倍的2021年全球发射次数,根据发射的数据服务聚合器宝贵的有效载荷。
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休斯顿,我们有一个问题!
美国火箭公司面临着艰巨的任务运送数百个卫星的空间在未来几年制裁副业俄罗斯太空发射行业。
SpaceX,阿斯特拉火箭和空间实验室美国是少数美国公司将填补真空,但业内官员怀疑他们的能力迅速过渡。
公司之间的竞争,包括伦Musk-owned SpaceX的柯伊伯我们和Amazon.com公司的项目,为构建大型卫星星座梁宽带互联网从太空升温,对发射预计将飞涨的需求。
超过800 100公斤以下的卫星将在轨道上仅今年一年,近一倍的2021年全球发射次数,根据发射的数据服务聚合器宝贵的有效载荷。
并与项目柯伊伯带重要的能力在未来几年内,分析师预计该行业面临一些推出相关延误。
“到2024年,2025年,当所有这些大型星座需要发射时,会有一个真正的问题,”火箭实验室首席执行官彼得·贝克告诉路透社,他指的是网络通信卫星由SpaceX, AST Spacemobile OneWeb。
火箭实验室是新一代企业构建小型推进系统利用一个指数上升的需求将紧凑的所谓的低地球轨道卫星。
在2021年,卫星OneWeb发起和SpaceX占约四分之三的小型卫星的发射,根据行业分析公司BryceTech。
尽管如此,俄罗斯维护全球推出市场16%的份额在过去的五年里,根据历史数据库。
实际上是更大的份额,因为“联盟”号火箭也推出了下since-suspended French-Russian合资Starsem命名。
大约三分之二的“联盟”号发射商业或在国际空间站(ISS)的支持,而其余的是俄罗斯的国内客户,奎尔蒂Analytics分析师亨利•迦勒说。
如果访问俄罗斯的能力丧失是由于西方的制裁的国家乌克兰的入侵,欧洲和美国的公司将不得不迅速介入,以满足需求。
然而,这可能不是那么容易,因为涉及的复杂性和挑战新建和发射火箭。
“总是有可能,新车将上线更快,由于制造技术的提高,但先例表明很难实现高未来几年推出的韵律,”分析师亨利说。
火箭实验室的贝克说,启动危机也适用于小卫星用于地球图像,进行科学观察,通常共享一个骑在火箭与其他卫星轨道。
推出紧缩
推迟发射可以以多种方式影响卫星互联网公司。有可能失去发射的权利,如果他们不遵守FCC规定的最后期限,而一些公司可能没有看到投资回报,除非他们的卫星在轨道上。
联合发射联盟,波音公司和洛克希德·马丁公司的合资公司,将取代其俄罗斯引擎与由杰夫Bezos-backed蓝色起源。不过,西方上市公司还有很长的路要走。
然而,亚马逊的重磅推出的合同项目柯伊伯可以激励火箭制造商加快生产,业内专家说。
SpaceX星际飞船的运载火箭将在大规模生产更快,分析师预计它满足一些需求。该公司还和经营我们发射卫星。
“长远来看,发射约束可以缓解由星际飞船。飞船可以粉碎定价在商业市场如果伦想要,但我的预测是,他更注重于让人类火星,”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师爱迪生Yu说。
Yu说,“新空间公司”如SpaceX,火箭实验室和阿斯特拉空间赢家当需求上升,没有依赖来自世界各地的卫星制造商在俄罗斯的联盟号火箭。
今年早些时候,OneWeb决定放弃俄罗斯发射服务和与竞争对手SpaceX公司签署了一项协议,将其卫星在轨道上。
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