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Analysts say China's easing of restrictions on companies like e-commerce giant Alibaba<\/a> and online games company Tencent<\/a> and talk of support for the private sector reflects Beijing's decision to refocus on growth after the economy was ravaged by the pandemic and restrictions imposed to fight COVID-19.
But controls on internet<\/a> content remain firmly in place. And the crackdown has left a \"chilling\" effect on the industry, potentially slowing innovation, while U.S. restrictions against China's computer chips industry are hindering progress in developing leading edge technology in 5G<\/a> and artificial intelligence.
In January, a top official at China's central bank said in an interview with state-owned media that the crackdown on technology companies was \"basically\" over, adding that companies would be encouraged to lead economic growth and create more jobs. That came just weeks after China dropped stringent entry restrictions and testing and quarantine requirements that were part of its \"zero-COVID\" strategy meant to quash the virus.
\"With the end of the zero-COVID policy, China is returning to prioritizing economic growth, and the technology sector is obviously a critical driver of growth in China and a celebrated source of innovation,\" said Gregory Allen, a senior fellow in the Strategic Technologies Program at the U.S. research organization Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Companies like Alibaba and Tencent control everyday apps and services that are used ubiquitously by large swathes of the population - including online payments, messaging, food delivery and e-commerce.
Such companies flourished for two decades with scant regulation before Beijing launched a barrage of anti-monopoly, data security and other restrictions from late 2020, seeking to rein in e-commerce, social media and other companies it viewed as too big and independent.
Signaling an easing, Didi Global - which was ordered to stop new-user registrations in 2021 following accusations that it violated data security rules - recently was allowed to resume taking on new users.
Regulators said e-commerce giant Alibaba's finance affiliate Ant Group<\/a> can go ahead with plans to raise $1.5 billion for its consumer finance unit, an important step forward after the government called off a planned IPO two years ago and ordered the firm to restructure.
After slamming online games as \"spiritual opium\" and enforcing strict controls on screen time for minors, regulators last April begun approving new games following an eight-month hiatus, with the first foreign titles greenlighted in December.
Stocks of technology companies, including Alibaba, Tencent as well as others such as food delivery company Meituan and search engine and artificial intelligence firm Baidu have seen their stock prices nearly double since they hit rock bottom in late October. The market valuations of these companies, however, are still far from their peak in 2019.
The crackdown's chilling effects for investors and entrepreneurs will linger, Allen said, since the authorities have shown they're willing and able to forego growth to impose controls on the industry at any time.
Over the past two years, several founders of technology companies have stepped down as CEO or chairman of their respective firms - including Alibaba's Jack Ma, JD.com's Richard Liu, Bytedance's Zhang Yiming and Pinduoduo's Colin Huang.
In January, Alibaba's financial affiliate Ant Group said that Ma - once China's richest man - would give up control of the firm following a restructuring, and that no single shareholder would have control. Ma has rarely been seen in public since regulators pulled the plug on Ant Group's market debut in Hong Kong and Shanghai following his criticism of China's financial sector in 2020. He since reportedly has moved to Tokyo.
\"If you were a technology entrepreneur in China five years ago, very likely someone like Jack Ma was your hero, your idol, and was precisely what you aspired to achieve and the sort of person you aspire to become,\" said Allen. \"And to see a man like that kind of torn down, I think sends a really strong message.\"
He and other analysts say the crackdown could potentially stifle innovation, as investors and entrepreneurs become more cautious about operating in China.
\"The crackdown was deep and cut far to the bone, probably more than the government expected it to,\" said Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai. \"Because what's happened is over the last two years, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs have been scared to deploy capital and start new companies.\"
The value of venture capital deals in China plunged 44% to $62.1 billion in the first 10 months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, according to research firm Preqin.
Some entrepreneurs and venture capitalists are taking a wait-and-see attitude, \"worried in the long term that if they invest in a hot sector that the government that goes against China's agenda or doesn't fit with the government's agenda for the private sector that they might get wiped out,\" Rein said.
Well-established internet companies are still at an advantage to other tech industries in China that face added uncertainty due to friction between Washington and Beijing over advanced technology and trade as the U.S. seeks to block exports of high-end semiconductors and chip-making equipment and to limit Western dealings with companies like Huawei Technologies<\/a>, the world's largest maker of telecommunications networking gear.
The Biden<\/a> administration has stopped approving renewal of licenses to some U.S. companies that have been selling essential components to the Chinse tech giant. That's according to two people familiar with the matter who were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Washington gradually has tightened controls over U.S. exports to Huawei but had allowed some companies like Intel<\/a> and Qualcomm to sell it processors used in devices like laptops and lower-end smartphones. The U.S. has justified such sanctions on national security grounds. Huawei denies the accusations.
Under such pressure, China has accelerated efforts to become more self-sufficient in semiconductors and other advanced technologies, providing billions in subsidies and investments for the industry. But it remains years behind in some of the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes and a U.S. prohibition against supporting development and production of integrated circuits at some chip factories in China has deprived Chinese chip firms of the foreign talent that has long contributed to its domestic industry.
A U.S. ban on selling crucial semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China is another obstacle.
\"It's one thing to go into areas like software and cloud services, in which Chinese companies are already quite strong,\" said Allen of CSIS.
\"It's a very different thing to take Chinese companies that are a decade or two behind in state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing equipment and tell them to grow up immediately by replicating some of the most advanced technologies that the world has ever produced.\"
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寒意弥漫缓解中国科技公司尽管镇压
分析师说中国放宽限制企业电子商务巨头阿里巴巴和在线游戏公司腾讯和支持私营部门的言论反映了中国政府决定重新关注经济增长后遭大流行和限制COVID-19作战。
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分析人士说,中国宽松的限制等公司电子商务巨头阿里巴巴和网络游戏公司腾讯和支持私营部门的言论反映了中国政府决定重新关注经济增长后遭大流行和限制COVID-19作战。
但控制互联网内容保持坚定。和镇压留下了“寒蝉效应”的行业,可能减缓创新,而美国限制中国的计算机芯片产业在阻碍发展前沿技术5克和人工智能。
今年1月,中国央行一位高级官员在国有媒体采访时表示,打击技术公司是“基本”,他补充称,公司将被鼓励引导经济增长和创造更多就业机会。仅仅几个星期之前,中国放弃了严格的入境限制和检验检疫要求,“zero-COVID”战略的一部分,旨在消除病毒。
zero-COVID政策的结束,中国是回到优先考虑经济增长,和技术部门显然是中国经济增长的关键动力和一个著名的创新之源,”格雷戈里·艾伦说,在战略技术项目高级研究员在美国研究机构战略与国际研究中心。
阿里巴巴和腾讯等公司控制日常应用和服务无所不在地使用大片的人口——包括在线支付、消息传递、食品交付和电子商务。
与缺乏监管这些公司蓬勃发展二十年来在北京推出了一连串的反垄断之前,从2020年末数据安全性和其他限制,寻求控制电子商务、社交媒体和其他公司视为太大而独立。
信号一个宽松,迪迪全球——在2021年被勒令停止新用户注册后的指控违反了数据安全规则——最近被允许继续在新用户。
监管机构表示,电子商务巨头阿里巴巴的财政联盟蚁群可以推进计划筹集15亿美元的消费金融单位,一个重要的一步在政府两年前取消了上市计划,并下令该公司重组。
摔后在线游戏为“精神鸦片”,对未成年人实施严格控制在屏幕上的时间,监管机构去年4月开始批准新游戏中断8个月后,第一个外国标题greenlight 12月。
科技公司的股票,包括阿里巴巴、腾讯以及食品等快递公司Meituan和人工智能搜索引擎,百度公司的股票价格近一倍,因为他们在10月下旬谷底。然而,这些公司的市值仍从2019年的峰值。
镇压的寒蝉效应对投资者和企业家将持续,艾伦说,因为政府已经表明他们愿意并且能够放弃经济增长对行业在任何时候控制。
在过去的两年里,一些科技公司的创始人已经辞去首席执行官或董事长的各自的公司——包括阿里巴巴的马云,JD.com的理查德•刘Bytedance张翳明和Pinduoduo科林黄。
今年1月,阿里巴巴旗下金融子公司蚂蚁集团表示,马——曾经的中国首富将放弃控制权的公司重组后,和没有一个股东控制。马很少公开露面以来,监管机构取消了蚂蚁集团在香港和上海的市场上市后在2020年对中国金融部门的批评。据报道他自从搬到东京。
“如果你是一个技术企业家在中国五年前,很可能像马云这样的人是你的英雄,你的偶像,而正是你渴望实现你渴望成为的那种人,”艾伦说。”,看到一个男人喜欢这样的拆除,我想发出一个强烈的信号。”
他和其他分析师表示,打击可能会遏制创新,随着投资者和企业家在中国变得更加谨慎操作。
“镇压很深,切到骨头里,可能超过了政府的预期,”雷小山(Shaun Rein)表示,中国市场研究集团的创始人兼董事总经理在上海。”,因为在过去的两年里发生了什么,风险资本家和企业家开始害怕部署资本和新公司。”
在中国风险资本交易的价值暴跌44%,至621亿美元在2022年的前10个月与2021年同期相比,据研究公司Preqin的数据。
一些企业家和风险投资家采取了观望的态度,“长期担心,如果他们投资于针对中国的一个热门行业,政府的议程或不符合政府对私营部门的议程,他们可能会消灭,”控制。
知名互联网公司仍处于有利地位在中国其他科技产业面临着增加的不确定性由于华盛顿和北京之间的摩擦在先进技术和贸易在美国试图阻止出口高端半导体和芯片制造设备和限制西方与这样的公司打交道华为技术有限公司全球最大的电信网络设备制造商。
的拜登政府已经停止批准续期许可证,一些美国公司已经出售必要的组件来填隙科技巨头。这是根据两位知情人士未被授权公开发表评论的敏感物质和不愿透露姓名的发言。
华盛顿逐渐收紧控制美国出口到华为,但允许一些公司英特尔和高通出售处理器用于笔记本电脑和低端智能手机等设备。美国以国家安全为由等合理的制裁。华为否认了这一指控。
在这样的压力下,中国加快了努力变得更加自给自足在半导体和其他先进技术,为行业提供数十亿美元的补贴和投资。但仍年背后的一些最先进的半导体制造工艺和美国禁止支持开发和生产一些芯片的集成电路芯片工厂在中国已经剥夺了中国公司的外国人才,长期以来导致国内产业。
美国禁止向中国出售至关重要的半导体制造设备是另一个障碍。
“是一回事进入软件和云服务等领域,中国企业已经相当强劲,“战略与国际研究中心的艾伦说。
“这是一个非常不同的事情背后的十年或二十年的中国公司最先进的半导体制造设备和告诉他们长大后立即通过复制一些世界上最先进的技术生产的。”
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