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Under sweeping new regulations announced by the Biden administration on Oct. 7, U.S. companies must cease supplying Chinese chipmakers<\/a> with equipment that can produce relatively advanced chips unless they first obtain a license.
The measures are set to undermine China's efforts to develop its own chip industry<\/a> aimed at reducing its reliance on foreign-made chips. China consumes more than three quarters of the semiconductors<\/a> sold globally, which hit $556 billion in 2021, but produces around 15% of global output.
\"The tech decoupling could serve as China's Sputnik<\/a> moment in innovation, forcing it to take a top-down and self-reliance approach, especially in semiconductors<\/a>,\" Citi economists said in a note, likening it to the surge in spending and research seen in the United States after the Soviet Union's launch of the world's first satellite.
The restrictions also arrive just before the upcoming Communist Party Congress in Beijing, in which President Xi Jinping is expected to secure an unprecedented third term.
The importance of technological self-sufficiency, already a priority for Xi in the past decade, will likely surface as a key theme for this year's Congress.
Boston Consulting Group estimated in 2021 that a country would need at least $1 trillion in incremental upfront investment to build fully \"self-sufficient\" local chip supply chains.
The new restrictions are likely to spur Chinese chipmakers to try producing advanced chips by using creative engineering solutions with older technologies not subject to the sanctions, experts said.
This is something that China's top contract chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC<\/a>), has attempted before.
In late 2020 Washington barred it from obtaining an advanced chipmaking tool called an EUV machine from Dutch firm ASML which is critical for making chips using 7 nanometer process nodes.
While the sanctions are intended to prevent SMIC<\/a> from producing advanced chips, some analysts have found signs that SMIC has nevertheless managed to produce 7 nm chips by tweaking simpler DUV machines it could still purchase freely from ASML.
Experts say such attempts, however, are unlikely to produce commercially viable products for mass production.
\"You can tweak certain tools. People are creative. But what will the yields be? How can they achieve commercial volumes? These are the questions,\" says Marco Mezger, a consultant in Taiwan who tracks the global memory chip sector.
Experts say China's own equipment makers remain four to five years behind their overseas counterparts, making them not suitable as instant substitutes for equipment lost from U.S. suppliers such as KLA Corp<\/a>, Applied Materials, and Lam Research.
Two other leading Chinese chipmakers likely to be dealt a blow are NAND memory chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technologies Co Ltd (YMTC<\/a>) and DRAM maker Changxin Memory Technologies Inc (CXMT<\/a>).
YMTC<\/a> and CXMT<\/a> are both state-backed companies founded roughly 10 years ago and China's best hopes for breaking into the global market, going neck and neck with top players such as Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology.
But neither company has achieved mass production at the cutting edge, though they have made strides - with YMTC claiming to have developed 232-layer NAND, and CXMT reportedly inching towards mass production of 10nm DRAM.
SMIC, YMTC and CXMT did not respond to requests for comment.
WINTER IS COMING
Overseas toolmakers will likewise face painful hits to their bottom line as China's efforts to nurture its domestic chip industry<\/a> have been a boon to many of them.
KLA, Applied Materials, and Lam Research each earn roughly 30% of their revenue from China, which ranks as their top geographic market and also the fastest growing.
Applied Materials said on Wednesday export restrictions to China would result in a $250-$550 million loss in net sales in the quarter ending Oct. 30, with a similar impact expected in the following three months.
\"Until we see some $10 billion fab set up in Ohio or Oregon, I see a big concern for our revenue next year,\" one source at an equipment company told Reuters, referring to the CHIPS Act that provides $52.7 billion subsidies for U.S. chip production and research.
Sources at toolmaking firms also said they are scrambling to comply with the new export restrictions, with some companies ordering a broad supply ban to avoid breaking the rules, which they say are ambiguous.
\"If we go by the letter of the bill, the equipment companies might have to close their doors,\" said one seller of chip equipment, who asked to not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Washington is also scrambling to tackle unintended consequences of its new export curbs, people familiar with the matter said.
Hours before the new restriction took effect, South Korea's SK Hynix said it got U.S. authorization to receive goods for its chip production facilities in China without additional licensing imposed by the new rules.
Yet business at toolmaking firms servicing Chinese customers has already slowed dramatically, leaving their staff with little work to do but creating an opening for Chinese equipment makers seeking to catch up with western rivals, sources said.
\"Our top management team has told us to relax for a couple of months - we can still come to work but it's not mandatory,\" said one source at an overseas equipment company based in China.
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中国面临的“斯普特尼克时刻”我们出口限制交易打击其芯片的野心
拜登下彻底宣布的新规定政府10月7日,美国公司必须停止向中国芯片制造商提供设备,可以产生相对先进的芯片,除非他们首先获得许可证。
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拜登下彻底宣布的新规定政府10月7日,美国公司必须停止供应芯片制造商与设备,可以产生相对先进的芯片,除非他们首先获得许可。
这些措施将损害中国的努力发展自己的芯片行业旨在减少依赖外国制造的芯片。中国消费超过四分之三的半导体全球销售,于2021年达到5560亿美元,但生产全球产出的15%左右。
“技术解耦可以作为中国的人造卫星时刻创新,迫使它采取自上而下和自力更生的方法,特别是在半导体”,花旗集团的经济学家在一份报告中说,把它比作是支出的激增和研究在美国在苏联的世界上第一颗人造卫星的发射。
限制也到达之前在北京即将到来的共产党代表大会,在习近平副主席将获得前所未有的第三个任期。
技术自给自足的重要性,已经在过去的十年中,优先考虑Xi表面可能为国会今年的一个重要主题。
波士顿咨询集团2021年的估计,一个国家需要至少1万亿美元的增量前期投资建立完全“自给自足”的当地芯片供应链。
新的限制可能会刺激中国芯片制造商试图生产先进的芯片通过创造性的工程解决方案与老技术不受制裁,专家说。
这是中国最大的合同芯片生产商中芯国际集团(中芯国际),已经尝试过。
华盛顿在2020年晚些时候禁止它获得一个先进的芯片工具称为EUV机从荷兰ASML公司使用7纳米芯片制造过程的关键节点。
而制裁旨在防止中芯国际从生产先进的芯片,一些分析人士发现,尽管如此,中芯国际管理生产7纳米芯片通过调整简单DUV机器从ASML仍然可以自由购买。
专家说,这样的尝试,不过,不太可能产生商业上可行的产品批量生产。
“你可以调整特定的工具。人有创造力。但收益率会什么呢?他们怎么能实现商业卷?这些问题,”顾问Marco Mezger说在台湾跟踪全球内存芯片行业。
专家说,中国自己的设备制造商保持四到五年海外同行,使他们不适合即时替代品设备失去了从美国供应商等解放军的集团应用材料,和林研究。
另外两个中国主要芯片制造商可能打击NAND内存芯片制造商长江内存技术有限公司(YMTC)和DRAM制造商昌鑫内存技术公司(CXMT)。
YMTC和CXMT都是国有企业建立大约10年前,中国最好的希望打入全球市场,将并驾齐驱与三星电子(Samsung Electronics)等顶级球员和微米技术。
但无论是公司已经实现了大规模生产前沿,尽管他们取得了进步——YMTC声称已经开发出232 -层与非,据报道,CXMT朝着10 nm DRAM的大规模生产。
中芯国际,YMTC CXMT没有回应记者的置评请求。
冬天即将来临
海外工具同样会面临痛苦的打击他们的底线为中国培养国内的努力芯片行业有很多人的福音。
心理契约、应用材料和林研究每个获得约30%的收入来自中国,这是他们最地理市场,也是增长最快的。
应用材料公司周三表示,对中国出口限制将导致250 - 5.5亿美元的损失在截至10月30日的季度,净销售额预计将会有一个类似的影响在接下来的三个月。
“直到我们看到一些100亿美元的工厂建立在俄亥俄州或俄勒冈州,我看到一个大问题对我们明年的收入,”一个源设备公司对路透表示,他指的是芯片的行为,为美国提供527亿美元的补贴芯片生产和研究。
来源在工具制造公司也表示,他们正忙于遵守新的出口限制,禁止与一些公司订购一个广泛的供应,以避免破坏规则,他们说模棱两可的。
“如果我们去信的法案,设备公司可能不得不关门,“说芯片设备的销售商,他要求不透露姓名的敏感性。
华盛顿也忙于应对新的出口限制的意想不到的后果,知情人士说。
新的限制生效前几个小时,韩国SK海力士表示,有美国授权接收货物的芯片生产设施在中国没有额外的许可实施的新规则。
然而在工具制造公司业务服务中国客户已经大幅放缓,让员工没有工作要做,但创建一个开放对中国设备制造商为了赶上西方竞争对手,消息人士说。
“我们的高层管理团队已经告诉我们放松几个月——我们仍然可以来上班,但不是强制性的,”一位消息人士说海外设备公司位于中国。
