Companies in India release their September quarter earnings around the Diwali<\/a> festival, the high season for domestic consumption. No surprise then that this is when analysts run a reality check on the country’s billion-plus shoppers: How many of them took a home loan, ordered a fresh coat of paint, bought a phone? There’s a more pressing question this year: How did Dixon<\/a> do?
Even last year, stocks like Dixon Technologies<\/a> (India) Ltd., which makes LED TVs<\/a> for Samsung<\/a> Electronics Co., or Amber Enterprises India Ltd<\/a>., an air-conditioner parts supplier to LG<\/a> Electronics Inc., were relatively unknown entities. But now there’s a growing excitement around homegrown firms that could one day become just as large and important as the contract manufacturing giant Flex Ltd<\/a>., formerly Flextronics.
The reason for that optimism is firmly entrenched in geopolitics. The short-lived rout in Chinese stocks that followed President Xi Jinping’s ascendancy to a precedent-breaking third term came as a wake-up call. As Beijing threatens to break away from the West’s economic and political orbit<\/a> under its strongman leader, multinational firms need a backup location for making gadgets. And when it comes to implementing a China+1 strategy, who has a deeper labor pool than India?
![\"\"](\"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
The stock market is taking notice of the order flow. After a sixfold jump in two-and-a-half years, Dixon’s market value is now more than $3 billion. Taiwan’s PC maker Acer Inc. announced a partnership with the Indian firm last year. Headquartered in Noida, a suburb of New Delhi, Dixon is already manufacturing monitors for Dell Inc. and will soon start churning out Android-based smart TVs under a sub-license from Alphabet Inc. Sales grew 38% and profit rose 23% from a year earlier in the September quarter.
Analysts are super bullish. Nirmal Bang, a Mumbai-based brokerage, expects compounded annual profit growth of 52%-plus between 2022 and 2025. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is penciling in an even faster expansion in earnings — 63% annually over three years. “We view Dixon as a structural play on indigenization,” the researchers say.
India as a risk-mitigation tactic — a hedge against manufacturing all widgets in China<\/a> — is a story that’s gathering investor interest and helping to justify lofty valuations. The premium for Indian stocks over emerging-market shares is currently three standard deviations higher than the 10-year average. There’s plenty of nervousness, though. Apart from domestic banks, whose asset quality and margins have improved, some of the other investment themes are looking tired, at least temporarily.
Yes, the worst of the inflation surge is probably over, and the Reserve Bank of India may be close to a pause in its interest-rate cycle. But price pressures are still elevated. Going into the festival season, quarterly consumption volumes had been declining 1% annually for the past three years. Unilever Plc’s local unit is sitting on its lowest gross margin in several years. The software services industry<\/a>, for which India is globally known, is staring at weak demand from European clients even as it battles high employee attrition at home.
For a resource-constrained economy scarred by the pandemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s five-year, $24 billion industrial policy push is an expensive gamble on manufacturing. That money was more urgently required in education, health and an inadequate urban infrastructure creaking under freak weather events. Raising import tariffs to give the “Make in India<\/a>” project a protectionist edge is something that New Delhi has tried in its own socialist past — with disastrous consequences.
Dixon wouldn’t mind being treated as a national champion of sorts. Nor will the stock market. However, the real lever that could swing things in favor of the second-most-populous nation lies with CEOs of Fortune 500 companies. If China+1 is a real theme in India this Diwali, it’s more about Xi and his fraying relationship with the West than Modi and his policies.
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中西方的紧张局势提升印度的生产目标
印度作为一种降低风险的策略——在中国对冲制造所有小部件是一个故事,收集投资者的兴趣并帮助证明崇高的估值。印度股市在新兴市场股票的溢价是目前三个标准差高于10年平均水平。
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由安迪•穆克吉
公司在印度发布的季度收益排灯节节日,国内消费的旺季。这毫不奇怪,这是当分析师运行现实中国十几亿消费者:他们中有多少房屋贷款,订购了一层新的油漆,买了一个手机?今年有一个更紧迫的问题:如何迪克森做什么?
甚至去年,股票迪克森技术(印度)有限公司,使领导电视为三星电子有限公司琥珀色的印度企业有限公司一个空调零部件供应商LG电子有限公司,是相对不知名的实体。但是现在有越来越多的兴奋在本土企业有一天可能成为合同制造业巨头一样大的和重要的Flex有限公司原伟创力。
乐观的原因是扎根在地缘政治。中国股市的短暂的溃败之后,习近平副主席的优势precedent-breaking第三个任期之际,一记警钟。北京威胁要脱离西方的经济和政治轨道领袖的铁腕之下,跨国公司需要制造设备的备份位置。和实现中国+ 1战略时,谁有更深层次的劳动力比印度?
股票市场正在通知的订单流。在两年半增长6倍后,迪克森的市值已经超过30亿美元。台湾个人电脑制造商宏碁公司去年宣布与印度公司的合作。总部设在诺伊达,新德里郊区的,迪克森已经生产监控为戴尔公司(Dell Inc .)和将很快推出基于android系统的智能电视分许可下从字母表Inc .销售较上年同期增长38%,利润增长23%的季度。
分析师超级乐观。孟买经纪公司预计Nirmal爆炸复合年利润增长52%以上在2022和2025之间。Jefferies Financial Group inc .)用铅笔写在一个更快的扩张在三年内每年收益- 63%。“我们认为迪克森作为结构的本土化,”研究人员说。
印度作为一种降低风险的策略——对冲制造业所有小部件中国——是一个故事,收集投资者的兴趣并帮助证明崇高的估值。印度股市在新兴市场股票的溢价是目前三个标准差高于10年平均水平。有足够的紧张。除了国内银行的资产质量和利润率有所改善,一些其他的投资主题是累了,至少暂时是这样的。
是的,最严重的通货膨胀飙升可能是结束了,和印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)可能接近暂停其利率周期。但价格压力仍然高企。进入节日季节,季度消费卷已经在过去的三年里每年下降1%。联合利华的本地单位正坐在毛利率数年来的最低水平。软件服务行业,印度是全球皆知,盯着疲软的欧洲客户的需求即使它战斗高员工流失率在家里。
资源受限的经济满目疮痍的大流行,总理纳伦德拉•莫迪的五年,240亿美元的产业政策推动制造业是一个昂贵的赌博。这些钱更迫切需要在教育、健康和不适当的城市基础设施不堪重负反常天气事件。提高进口关税给”在印度“贸易保护主义的优势项目是新德里过去曾试图在自己的社会主义——灾难性的后果。
迪克森不介意被当作一个全国冠军。股票市场也不会。然而,真正的杠杆,可以摇摆的第二大国家在于财富500强公司的ceo。如果中国+ 1是一个真正的主题在印度排灯节,这是更多关于习近平和他的磨损与西方的关系比莫迪和他的政策。
公司在印度发布的季度收益排灯节节日,国内消费的旺季。这毫不奇怪,这是当分析师运行现实中国十几亿消费者:他们中有多少房屋贷款,订购了一层新的油漆,买了一个手机?今年有一个更紧迫的问题:如何迪克森做什么?
甚至去年,股票迪克森技术(印度)有限公司,使领导电视为三星电子有限公司琥珀色的印度企业有限公司一个空调零部件供应商LG电子有限公司,是相对不知名的实体。但是现在有越来越多的兴奋在本土企业有一天可能成为合同制造业巨头一样大的和重要的Flex有限公司原伟创力。
乐观的原因是扎根在地缘政治。中国股市的短暂的溃败之后,习近平副主席的优势precedent-breaking第三个任期之际,一记警钟。北京威胁要脱离西方的经济和政治轨道领袖的铁腕之下,跨国公司需要制造设备的备份位置。和实现中国+ 1战略时,谁有更深层次的劳动力比印度?
股票市场正在通知的订单流。在两年半增长6倍后,迪克森的市值已经超过30亿美元。台湾个人电脑制造商宏碁公司去年宣布与印度公司的合作。总部设在诺伊达,新德里郊区的,迪克森已经生产监控为戴尔公司(Dell Inc .)和将很快推出基于android系统的智能电视分许可下从字母表Inc .销售较上年同期增长38%,利润增长23%的季度。
分析师超级乐观。孟买经纪公司预计Nirmal爆炸复合年利润增长52%以上在2022和2025之间。Jefferies Financial Group inc .)用铅笔写在一个更快的扩张在三年内每年收益- 63%。“我们认为迪克森作为结构的本土化,”研究人员说。
印度作为一种降低风险的策略——对冲制造业所有小部件中国——是一个故事,收集投资者的兴趣并帮助证明崇高的估值。印度股市在新兴市场股票的溢价是目前三个标准差高于10年平均水平。有足够的紧张。除了国内银行的资产质量和利润率有所改善,一些其他的投资主题是累了,至少暂时是这样的。
是的,最严重的通货膨胀飙升可能是结束了,和印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)可能接近暂停其利率周期。但价格压力仍然高企。进入节日季节,季度消费卷已经在过去的三年里每年下降1%。联合利华的本地单位正坐在毛利率数年来的最低水平。软件服务行业,印度是全球皆知,盯着疲软的欧洲客户的需求即使它战斗高员工流失率在家里。
资源受限的经济满目疮痍的大流行,总理纳伦德拉•莫迪的五年,240亿美元的产业政策推动制造业是一个昂贵的赌博。这些钱更迫切需要在教育、健康和不适当的城市基础设施不堪重负反常天气事件。提高进口关税给”在印度“贸易保护主义的优势项目是新德里过去曾试图在自己的社会主义——灾难性的后果。
迪克森不介意被当作一个全国冠军。股票市场也不会。然而,真正的杠杆,可以摇摆的第二大国家在于财富500强公司的ceo。如果中国+ 1是一个真正的主题在印度排灯节,这是更多关于习近平和他的磨损与西方的关系比莫迪和他的政策。
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