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中国巨大的芯片雄心成为新冠疫情动荡的牺牲品
疫情期间，中美在半导体方面的竞争加剧，暴露了各国在关键电子元件上的相互依赖，并在全球范围内引发了科技保护主义。
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激增的新冠病例正在拖累世界第二大经济体，并迫使其政府暂停对国内芯片行业的巨额支出。在一个由美国及其盟友主导的市场，昂贵的补贴迄今收效甚微，还引发了几起备受瞩目的腐败调查。政策制定者现在正在寻找其他方法来帮助本土芯片公司。
在过去几年里，中国暂停了大约1000亿美元的支出，而且还在增加，这引发了人们对北京对一个不仅在推动人工智能和未来方面至关重要的行业的意图的质疑设备也包括军事系统。
“对中国来说，试图在其境内重建全球芯片供应链是不切实际的，而世界上最强大的国家花了40年时间才建成了这条供应链，”他说布雷迪王他是行业咨询公司Counterpoint的分析师。“中国只需要在几个关键领域足够强大。”
北京方面的态度似乎发生了大转变，突显出中国试图在这个5500亿美元的产业中占据一席之地所面临的巨大挑战。华盛顿在2022年发起了迄今为止最大的努力来阻止这一进展，初步迹象显示取得了成功。
疫情期间，中美在半导体方面的竞争加剧，暴露了各国在关键电子元件上的相互依赖，并在全球范围内引发了科技保护主义。中国半导体企业现在难以获得最先进的芯片制造机器和设计软件，由于特朗普政府的黑名单，它们有时无法获得海外芯片制造商的合同。
Trivium中国高级芯片分析师鲍凌浩表示:“地方政府确实资金紧张，但如果中央政府想为芯片行业提供资金支持，它会找到办法。”“目前还不清楚未来应该采取什么样的政策支持组合。政策制定者可能会重新评估这一战略。”
历史表明，攀登技术阶梯不仅势在必行，而且只要坚持不懈，就有可能实现。
过去几十年里，芯片行业的领导地位不断易手，取决于哪些公司在科技领域押下了最明智的赌注。上世纪80年代，由于全国范围内对DRAM的关注，日本公司占据了领先地位，但后来被韩国竞争对手超越，后者在存储芯片上的支出超过了日本公司，荷兰设备制造商阿斯麦(ASML Holding NV)也超越了日本，后者专攻光刻技术。过去10年，台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)已成长为全球最有价值的芯片制造商，这得益于多年来在竞争对手缩减投资之际对先进逻辑芯片的投资。
Counterpoint的王说:“台积电的成功建立在许多失败的案例之上。
但要复制日本和韩国的崛起，中国政府可能不得不调整自己的旧策略。
中国政府已经拨款1000多亿美元来发展国内半导体行业，降低对西方的依赖。2014年，它设立了3300亿元人民币(480亿美元)的国家集成电路产业投资基金，年复一年地向中芯国际和长江存储技术有限公司等顶级芯片公司大举投资。
但这种无限资本的感觉助长了浪费。2022年，监管机构对涉嫌腐败展开了前所未有的一系列调查，拘留了该国一些最大的行业人物。中国新的经济限制意味着，投资将需要达到更高的回报标准，迫使人们更多地考虑应该专注于哪些领域。
一个可能的领域可能是被称为RISC-V的开源半导体架构，被认为是英国Arm Ltd.的可能替代品。中国官员公开支持该标准，认为这是一种超越美国的方式，因为它相对较新(重要的是，它是开源的)，包括阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.)和华为技术有限公司(Huawei Technologies Co.)在内的大公司都公布了围绕该标准设计芯片的计划。
中国还向碳化硅和氮化镓芯片等蓝海技术投入了大量资金，尽管这些技术需要数年或更长时间才能实现。中国政府已将其视为绕过传统硅材料的另一种方式，但这项技术仍处于起步阶段。
由于与美国供应商断绝了联系，中国本土芯片制造商还可以探索在传统上被视为低端、但对电动汽车等未来技术同样重要的领域取得进展。例如，花旗银行的分析师在一份报告中写道，由于中国庞大的市场和国内供应链，中国的电源芯片公司将超越同行。
另一项政策要求是培养本土人才。美国最近的制裁包括暂停一些为中国芯片制造商工作的美国人——这些人将需要被替换。
“如果你看一下20大报告，人才培养是推动科技创新的重中之重，”鲍说。“中国一直严重依赖在美国培训的中国人来领导中国的半导体发展。在美国新的出口管制制度下，这不再是一条可行的道路。”
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<\/figure>For years, China was the world\u2019s biggest spender on chip incentives, a scale unmatched from Washington to Tokyo. Now, the effort to combat Covid<\/a> and deal with the threat of a global recession is depleting state coffers and forcing Beijing<\/a> to rethink that controversial approach.Surging Covid cases are hobbling the world\u2019s No. 2 economy and forcing its government to pause mammoth spending on its domestic chip industry. In a market dominated by the US and its allies, costly subsidies have so far borne little fruit and led to several high-profile corruption investigations. Policymakers are now searching for other ways to help homegrown chip firms.
The suspension of spending \u2014 some $100 billion and counting over the past few years \u2014 raises questions about Beijing\u2019s intentions for an industry that\u2019s essential not just in powering artificial intelligence and future devices<\/a>, but also military systems. Beijing\u2019s ultimate goal hasn\u2019t changed: Xi Jinping\u2019s administration remains intent on achieving primacy or at least matching geopolitical rivals in designing and producing components critical to most any device on the planet.
<\/div><\/div>But rather than try to replicate a Western-centric chip supply chain<\/a>, China may now choose to divert its limited state capital toward selective areas. Those include semiconductors for electric vehicles, novel materials for next-generation processors, and open-source chip architecture \u2014 arenas that are relatively nascent, and where no one nation can claim dominance. In a meeting Xi chaired last September, the Communist Party ordered the country to focus on core technologies where China has, or can gain, an edge.
\u201cIt\u2019s impractical for China to try to recreate within its borders the entire global chip supply chain that took the world\u2019s most powerful countries four decades to build,\u201d said Brady Wang<\/a>, an analyst at industry consultancy Counterpoint. \u201cChina just needs to be powerful enough in a few key sectors.\u201d
The seeming about-face in Beijing highlights the monumental challenge China faces in trying to claw its way up a $550 billion industry. Washington in 2022 launched its biggest effort yet to stall that advance, with early signs of success.
The US-China rivalry over semiconductors deepened during the pandemic, which laid bare countries\u2019 dependence on one another for key electronic components and spurred tech protectionism worldwide. Chinese semiconductor companies are now struggling to source the most advanced chipmaking machines and design software, and are sometimes unable to secure overseas contract chipmakers as a result of blacklists dating back to the Trump administration.
\u201cIt\u2019s impractical for China to try to recreate within its borders the entire global chip supply chain that took the world\u2019s most powerful countries four decades to build,\u201d said Brady Wang<\/a>, an analyst at industry consultancy Counterpoint. \u201cChina just needs to be powerful enough in a few key sectors.\u201d
The seeming about-face in Beijing highlights the monumental challenge China faces in trying to claw its way up a $550 billion industry. Washington in 2022 launched its biggest effort yet to stall that advance, with early signs of success.
The US-China rivalry over semiconductors deepened during the pandemic, which laid bare countries\u2019 dependence on one another for key electronic components and spurred tech protectionism worldwide. Chinese semiconductor companies are now struggling to source the most advanced chipmaking machines and design software, and are sometimes unable to secure overseas contract chipmakers as a result of blacklists dating back to the Trump administration.
<\/div><\/div>Yet it has little choice in the matter: Beijing has long identified the sector as key to its national security. Capital deployed or set aside previously has already set in motion a nationwide buildup that will boost capacity in coming years. The country is expected to add 20 new chip plants, the most among all global regions, between 2021 and 2023, according to industry group SEMI.
\u201cIt\u2019s true that local governments are cash-strapped but if Beijing wants to offer financial support for the chip industry, it will find a way to do so,\u201d said Trivium China\u2019s senior chip analyst, Bao Linghao. \u201cIt\u2019s still unclear what the right mix of policy support should be going forward. Policymakers are likely reassessing the strategy.\u201d
History shows that climbing the technology ladder is not just imperative, but possible with dogged persistence.
Leadership in the chip sector has changed hands over the decades, hinging on which companies made the canniest tech bets. Japanese firms grabbed the lead in the 1980s thanks to a nationwide focus on DRAM, only to be overtaken by South Korean rivals who outspent them on memory chips and by Dutch equipment maker ASML Holding NV, which honed in on lithography. Over the last decade, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has grown into the world\u2019s most valuable chipmaker, thanks to years of investing in advanced logic chips as rivals cut back.
\u201cThe success of TSMC is built on many failed cases,\u201d Counterpoint\u2019s Wang said.
But to replicate Japan and Korea\u2019s ascent, Beijing may have to tweak its old playbook.
China\u2019s government has allocated more than $100 billion to build up the domestic semiconductor sector and lower its dependence on the West. In 2014, it set up the 330-billion-yuan ($48 billion) National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which has lavished investments year after year in top chip companies such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. and Yangtze Memory Technologies Co.
But that sense of unlimited capital encouraged waste. In 2022, regulators launched an unprecedented series of investigations into alleged corruption, detaining some of the nation\u2019s biggest industry figures. China\u2019s new economic constraints mean investments will need to meet a higher standard in terms of returns, forcing more thought on which areas to focus on.
One possible area may be an open-sourced semiconductor architecture called RISC-V regarded as a possible alternative to Britain\u2019s Arm Ltd. Chinese officials have publicly championed the standard as a way to leapfrog America since it\u2019s relatively new (and, importantly, open-source), and big names including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Huawei Technologies Co. have unveiled plans to design chips around the standard.
China has also poured money into blue ocean technologies like silicon carbide and gallium nitride chips, though those will take years \u2014 or more \u2014 to come to fruition. Beijing has latched onto that as another way to bypass traditional silicon materials, but that technology remains in its infancy.
Cut off from US suppliers, local chipmakers can also explore advances in areas traditionally regarded as lower-end, but that that are no less essential to future technologies such as electric cars. For instance, Chinese power chip firms will outgrow their peers, thanks to the country\u2019s vast market and domestic supply chain, analysts from Citibank wrote in a note.
Another policy imperative is fostering local talent. Among the most-recent US sanctions was a moratorium on some Americans working for Chinese chipmakers \u2014 those will need to be replaced.
\u201cIf you look at the 20th Party Congress report, talent training is the top priority in the tech innovation push,\u201d Bao said. \u201cChina has relied heavily on US-trained Chinese to lead China\u2019s semiconductor development. That\u2019s no longer a viable path under the new US export control regime.\u201d
<\/div><\/div>
\u201cIt\u2019s true that local governments are cash-strapped but if Beijing wants to offer financial support for the chip industry, it will find a way to do so,\u201d said Trivium China\u2019s senior chip analyst, Bao Linghao. \u201cIt\u2019s still unclear what the right mix of policy support should be going forward. Policymakers are likely reassessing the strategy.\u201d
History shows that climbing the technology ladder is not just imperative, but possible with dogged persistence.
Leadership in the chip sector has changed hands over the decades, hinging on which companies made the canniest tech bets. Japanese firms grabbed the lead in the 1980s thanks to a nationwide focus on DRAM, only to be overtaken by South Korean rivals who outspent them on memory chips and by Dutch equipment maker ASML Holding NV, which honed in on lithography. Over the last decade, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has grown into the world\u2019s most valuable chipmaker, thanks to years of investing in advanced logic chips as rivals cut back.
\u201cThe success of TSMC is built on many failed cases,\u201d Counterpoint\u2019s Wang said.
But to replicate Japan and Korea\u2019s ascent, Beijing may have to tweak its old playbook.
China\u2019s government has allocated more than $100 billion to build up the domestic semiconductor sector and lower its dependence on the West. In 2014, it set up the 330-billion-yuan ($48 billion) National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which has lavished investments year after year in top chip companies such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. and Yangtze Memory Technologies Co.
But that sense of unlimited capital encouraged waste. In 2022, regulators launched an unprecedented series of investigations into alleged corruption, detaining some of the nation\u2019s biggest industry figures. China\u2019s new economic constraints mean investments will need to meet a higher standard in terms of returns, forcing more thought on which areas to focus on.
One possible area may be an open-sourced semiconductor architecture called RISC-V regarded as a possible alternative to Britain\u2019s Arm Ltd. Chinese officials have publicly championed the standard as a way to leapfrog America since it\u2019s relatively new (and, importantly, open-source), and big names including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Huawei Technologies Co. have unveiled plans to design chips around the standard.
China has also poured money into blue ocean technologies like silicon carbide and gallium nitride chips, though those will take years \u2014 or more \u2014 to come to fruition. Beijing has latched onto that as another way to bypass traditional silicon materials, but that technology remains in its infancy.
Cut off from US suppliers, local chipmakers can also explore advances in areas traditionally regarded as lower-end, but that that are no less essential to future technologies such as electric cars. For instance, Chinese power chip firms will outgrow their peers, thanks to the country\u2019s vast market and domestic supply chain, analysts from Citibank wrote in a note.
Another policy imperative is fostering local talent. Among the most-recent US sanctions was a moratorium on some Americans working for Chinese chipmakers \u2014 those will need to be replaced.
\u201cIf you look at the 20th Party Congress report, talent training is the top priority in the tech innovation push,\u201d Bao said. \u201cChina has relied heavily on US-trained Chinese to lead China\u2019s semiconductor development. That\u2019s no longer a viable path under the new US export control regime.\u201d
<\/div><\/div>
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