China’s military drills after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan sparked alarm around the region, although its trade retaliation barely made a dent -- mostly because Beijing doesn’t want to hurt itself. 如果中国想要减少对本国经济制裁的影响,可以针对台湾木材、矿产、鞋子和帽子。台湾的贸易更依赖中国提供这些物品比中国接受他们从岛上。 中国的军事演习后,美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西来台湾地区引发了警报,尽管它的贸易报复几乎没有什么进展,主要是因为北京不想伤害自己。
The value of trade targeted by China’s sanctions contributes a tiny amount of less than 1% to Taiwan’s gross domestic product, according to economists, taking the sting out of China’s announcements. Beijing could ramp up actions by targeting more food products, wood or minerals. But levies on any big-ticket items that would cause real damage to Taipei -- such as semiconductors<\/a> -- are near-unthinkable, given China’s reliance<\/a> on the island for cutting-edge technology.
“The chance remains relatively low” for China to target Taiwanese tech, said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “If you look at Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply<\/a>, it’s very much dominant. It would be very difficult for China to find the alternative supply if it bans the Taiwan-made semiconductors.”
Beijing still has a few tools it could deploy to pressure Taipei. China and Hong Kong account for around 40% of Taiwan’s total exports, though Taipei has made efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China in recent years. More restrictions would be an economic headache for Taiwan, which is already grappling with slowing global demand for electronics and high inflation, cooling its growth outlook.
Here’s a look at what China has already targeted and how likely more measures against Taiwan are:
Trade Sanctions<\/strong>
The trade sanctions Beijing has already inflicted this month are expected to have a marginal impact on Taipei. Food accounts for just 0.4% of cross-strait trade, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists wrote in a research note last week. In all, bilateral trade between the two economies reached $328.3 billion last year.
The recent restrictions impacting citrus fruits and some fish exports might have an impact of less than 0.1% on Taiwan’s GDP, the Goldman economists said.
There’s also evidence of other tension, including Chinese customs data that show Beijing has blocked other food imports, though it’s not clear when those suspensions happened.
If China wants to mitigate the fallout of sanctions on its own economy, it could target Taiwanese wood, minerals, shoes or hats. Taiwan’s trade relies significantly more on delivering those items to China than China does on receiving them from the island, according to a DBS report.
China would also have an easier time finding alternative sources for those products, according to DBS. For instance, one-fifth of Taiwanese wood is exported to China, but these comprise only some 0.1% of China’s total wood imports. Other countries where China imports wood from include Russia, the US and Australia.
China could also restrict more of its own exports to Taiwan, as it did with natural sand. There’s some historical precedent for doing so, as Beijing previously halted sand exports in 2007 for about a year, citing environmental concerns. Taiwan, though, has reduced its reliance on China in that area since that ban more than a decade ago, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who called the most recent restrictions “mainly symbolic.”
Technological Power<\/strong>
It’s unsurprising that technology is at the heart of trade across the Taiwan Strait, comprising nearly 70% of Taiwan’s total exports to China.
Taiwan is known as the world’s leading supplier of semiconductors, thanks to the outsized dominance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which on its own accounts for around half of the global foundry market. It would be very difficult for China to find an alternative supplier if it bars chips imports from Taiwan, particularly for the most advanced 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer chips.
China and other major countries, including the US and Japan, have sought to boost domestic investments in semiconductors and to entice companies like TSMC<\/a> to build plants in their countries, in part to ease the geopolitical risks of potential disruptions to Taiwan’s supply of chips.
Chinese chip-makers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp<\/a>. have also had to contend with US sanctions and tightening export restrictions as Washington tries to curb Beijing’s chip ambitions. While homegrown firms in China have made strides in producing advanced chips, industry experts say they remain several years behind TSMC’s standards, meaning the Taiwanese firm remains a key resource for China.
Investment Ties<\/strong>
There are other ways in which the two economies are intertwined aside from trade across the Taiwan Strait.
Many of Taiwan’s major electronic firms have production bases inside of China, including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which is the main iPhone assembler for Apple Inc<\/a>. The company, also called Foxconn<\/a>, was at one point known as the largest private employer in China, with ambitions to expand to more than a million workers. The company’s plant in Zhengzhou alone employs some 200,000 workers, according to a report earlier this year in the local Henan Daily newspaper.
That could make moves by Beijing to crack down on Taiwanese firms like Foxconn difficult to pull off without impacting those companies’ contributions to the local economy.
Tourism is another avenue that China could target. The effects might be limited, though, as China had restricted visas for its citizens to travel to Taiwan before the Covid shutdown. Tsai’s government, meanwhile, has policies encouraging tourism and travel from other regions, including Southeast Asia.
Taiwan has been looking to diminish its dependence on China in recent years, with Tsai exploring ways to bolster trade and investment with Southeast Asia, India, Australia and New Zealand. Taipei last year asked to join Asia-Pacific’s biggest working trade deal, though its application is still pending.
Supply Chains<\/strong>
Actions against Taiwan by China -- such as more military drills -- could also impact supply routes in the Taiwan Strait, which is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Almost half of the global container fleet and 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage passed through the waterway this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
More aggressive actions in the strait, though, could have more of an impact on trade routes involving Chinese ports than Taiwanese ones. The recent Chinese military exercises have had limited impact on container shipping in the Taiwan Strait, beyond some divergence of vessels away from specified military exclusion zones, said Tan Hua Joo, a consultant at the container analysis firm Linerlytica. While access to Taiwanese ports is not dependent on passage through the strait, he added, entry to ports in Hong Kong and northern China often are.
“If there’s full-blown military action, that would be a completely different story,” he said. “But given the experience in the last two weeks, I think its quite clear that China has no intention of blocking the trade routes because its own trade volumes would also be affected if there was any vessel transit restrictions.”
Economists also suspect Beijing could take steps to restrict more trade in the second half of 2022, given that President Xi Jinping may want to bolster his power ahead of a Communist Party Congress later this year, when he is expected to secure a historic third term in office. Beijing claims the self-governed island as its own territory, and has made unification a top strategic priority.
“China may broaden the trade restriction measures in the coming months or quarters,” Ma from DBS said. “Given the very busy political calendar going forward, I think it’s possible that the tensions between Beijing and Taipei may escalate gradually going forward.”
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中国对台湾的依赖会使贸易报复昂贵
贸易制裁中国的目标的价值贡献极少量的不到1%,台湾的国内生产总值(gdp),经济学家表示,中国宣布的刺。北京方面可能加大行动目标更多的食物产品,木材或矿物质。但征收任何大件商品,到台北,如会造成真正的伤害半导体——是near-unthinkable,鉴于中国依赖岛上的尖端技术。
北京仍有一些工具可以部署到台北的压力。中国内地和香港约占台湾出口总额的40%,但台北一直努力减少其近年来经济依赖中国。对台湾更多的限制将是一个经济问题,已解决全球电子产品需求放缓和高通货膨胀,冷却其增长前景。
来看看中国已经针对性和如何可能对台湾更多的措施是:
贸易制裁
贸易制裁北京已经造成本月预计将对台北的边际影响。两岸贸易食品仅占0.4%,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group inc .)分析师上周在一份研究报告中写道。总之,两个经济体之间的双边贸易去年达到3283亿美元。
最近的出口限制影响柑橘类水果和一些鱼可能产生影响的台湾GDP的不到0.1%,高盛的经济学家说。
还有其他紧张的证据,包括中国海关数据显示中国政府封锁其他食品进口,尽管目前还不清楚当这些悬浮液。
如果中国想要减少对本国经济制裁的影响,可以针对台湾木材、矿产、鞋子和帽子。台湾的贸易更依赖中国提供这些物品比中国接受他们从岛上,星展银行的一份报告称。
中国也将更轻松地为这些产品找到替代资源,根据星展。例如,五分之一的台湾木材出口到中国,但这些只包含一些中国木材进口总量的0.1%。其他国家,中国进口木材来自包括俄罗斯、美国和澳大利亚。
中国也可以限制自己的出口到台湾,与天然砂一样。这样做有一些历史先例,如北京之前停止砂出口在2007年大约一年,原因是环境问题。台湾,虽然降低了中国在这个领域的依赖禁令以来,十多年前,据摩根大通(jpm . n:行情)的经济学家,称最近限制“主要符号。”
技术力量
这是奇怪的核心技术是海峡两岸贸易,包括台湾对中国的出口总额的近70%。
台湾被称为半导体的全球领先的供应商,由于台湾半导体制造有限公司的巨大优势,在自己的占全球铸造市场的一半左右。对于中国来说,这将是非常困难的找到另一个供应商如果酒吧从台湾进口芯片,特别是对最先进的5纳米和7-nanometer芯片。
中国和其他主要国家,包括美国和日本,试图刺激国内半导体和吸引企业投资台积电在他们的国家建立工厂,部分缓解潜在的地缘政治风险台湾芯片供应中断。
中国芯片等中芯国际集团。也不得不面对美国的制裁和收紧出口限制在美国为了遏制中国的芯片的野心。尽管本土公司在中国取得了长足进步生产先进的芯片,业内专家表示他们仍然落后于台积电的标准数年之久,这意味着台湾公司对中国仍然是一个关键的资源。
投资关系
还有其他两国经济相互交织的方式除了台湾海峡两岸贸易。
许多台湾的主要电子公司生产基地在中国,包括鸿海精密工业股份有限公司,是主要的iPhone汇编苹果(aapl . o:行情)。公司,也被称为富士康,一度被称为中国最大的私人雇主,野心扩大到超过一百万名工人。在郑州公司的工厂雇用了约200000名工人,今年早些时候的一份报告显示,在当地河南日报。乐动扑克
北京可能出手打击台湾富士康这样的企业难以实现而不影响这些公司对当地经济的贡献。
旅游业是另一个大道,中国可能的目标。的影响可能有限,因为中国有限制其公民的签证前往台湾Covid之前关闭。蔡政府,与此同时,政策鼓励旅游业从其他地区,包括东南亚。
台湾一直在寻求减少其依赖中国近年来,与蔡探讨如何加强贸易和投资与东南亚,印度,澳大利亚和新西兰。台北去年要求加入亚太地区最大的贸易协议工作,尽管其应用仍悬而未决。
供应链
行动由中国台湾,比如更多的军事演习,也可能影响补给线在台湾海峡,这是世界上最繁忙的航线之一。几乎一半的全球集装箱船队和88%的世界上最大的船舶吨位今年通过这条水道,据彭博社采集数据显示。
在海峡更激进的行动,可能会有更多的影响比台湾的贸易路线涉及中国港口。中国最近军事演习对集装箱运输在台湾海峡,除了一些分歧指定的船只远离军事禁区,说谭华Joo) Linerlytica容器分析顾问公司。虽然访问台湾的港口不是依赖通过海峡,他补充道,进入港口在香港和中国北方经常。
“如果有全面的军事行动,这将是一个完全不同的故事,”他说。“但是考虑到经验在过去的两周里,我认为它很清楚,中国无意阻止贸易路线,因为自己的贸易量也会影响是否有船运输的限制。”
经济学家还怀疑中国政府可能采取措施限制更多的贸易在2022年下半年,鉴于习近平副主席可能想巩固他的权力的共产党代表大会今年晚些时候,当他将获得历史性的第三个任期。北京声称台湾是中国的领土,并使得统一战略的一项首要目标。
“中国可能扩大的贸易限制措施在未来几个月或季度,“马从星展银行说。“考虑到政治日程很忙,我认为这是可能的,北京和台北之间的紧张局势可能升级逐渐前进。”
读到
China’s military drills after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan sparked alarm around the region, although its trade retaliation barely made a dent -- mostly because Beijing doesn’t want to hurt itself.
The value of trade targeted by China’s sanctions contributes a tiny amount of less than 1% to Taiwan’s gross domestic product, according to economists, taking the sting out of China’s announcements. Beijing could ramp up actions by targeting more food products, wood or minerals. But levies on any big-ticket items that would cause real damage to Taipei -- such as semiconductors<\/a> -- are near-unthinkable, given China’s reliance<\/a> on the island for cutting-edge technology.
“The chance remains relatively low” for China to target Taiwanese tech, said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “If you look at Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply<\/a>, it’s very much dominant. It would be very difficult for China to find the alternative supply if it bans the Taiwan-made semiconductors.”
Beijing still has a few tools it could deploy to pressure Taipei. China and Hong Kong account for around 40% of Taiwan’s total exports, though Taipei has made efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China in recent years. More restrictions would be an economic headache for Taiwan, which is already grappling with slowing global demand for electronics and high inflation, cooling its growth outlook.
Here’s a look at what China has already targeted and how likely more measures against Taiwan are:
Trade Sanctions<\/strong>
The trade sanctions Beijing has already inflicted this month are expected to have a marginal impact on Taipei. Food accounts for just 0.4% of cross-strait trade, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists wrote in a research note last week. In all, bilateral trade between the two economies reached $328.3 billion last year.
The recent restrictions impacting citrus fruits and some fish exports might have an impact of less than 0.1% on Taiwan’s GDP, the Goldman economists said.
There’s also evidence of other tension, including Chinese customs data that show Beijing has blocked other food imports, though it’s not clear when those suspensions happened.
If China wants to mitigate the fallout of sanctions on its own economy, it could target Taiwanese wood, minerals, shoes or hats. Taiwan’s trade relies significantly more on delivering those items to China than China does on receiving them from the island, according to a DBS report.
China would also have an easier time finding alternative sources for those products, according to DBS. For instance, one-fifth of Taiwanese wood is exported to China, but these comprise only some 0.1% of China’s total wood imports. Other countries where China imports wood from include Russia, the US and Australia.
China could also restrict more of its own exports to Taiwan, as it did with natural sand. There’s some historical precedent for doing so, as Beijing previously halted sand exports in 2007 for about a year, citing environmental concerns. Taiwan, though, has reduced its reliance on China in that area since that ban more than a decade ago, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who called the most recent restrictions “mainly symbolic.”
Technological Power<\/strong>
It’s unsurprising that technology is at the heart of trade across the Taiwan Strait, comprising nearly 70% of Taiwan’s total exports to China.
Taiwan is known as the world’s leading supplier of semiconductors, thanks to the outsized dominance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which on its own accounts for around half of the global foundry market. It would be very difficult for China to find an alternative supplier if it bars chips imports from Taiwan, particularly for the most advanced 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer chips.
China and other major countries, including the US and Japan, have sought to boost domestic investments in semiconductors and to entice companies like TSMC<\/a> to build plants in their countries, in part to ease the geopolitical risks of potential disruptions to Taiwan’s supply of chips.
Chinese chip-makers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp<\/a>. have also had to contend with US sanctions and tightening export restrictions as Washington tries to curb Beijing’s chip ambitions. While homegrown firms in China have made strides in producing advanced chips, industry experts say they remain several years behind TSMC’s standards, meaning the Taiwanese firm remains a key resource for China.
Investment Ties<\/strong>
There are other ways in which the two economies are intertwined aside from trade across the Taiwan Strait.
Many of Taiwan’s major electronic firms have production bases inside of China, including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which is the main iPhone assembler for Apple Inc<\/a>. The company, also called Foxconn<\/a>, was at one point known as the largest private employer in China, with ambitions to expand to more than a million workers. The company’s plant in Zhengzhou alone employs some 200,000 workers, according to a report earlier this year in the local Henan Daily newspaper.
That could make moves by Beijing to crack down on Taiwanese firms like Foxconn difficult to pull off without impacting those companies’ contributions to the local economy.
Tourism is another avenue that China could target. The effects might be limited, though, as China had restricted visas for its citizens to travel to Taiwan before the Covid shutdown. Tsai’s government, meanwhile, has policies encouraging tourism and travel from other regions, including Southeast Asia.
Taiwan has been looking to diminish its dependence on China in recent years, with Tsai exploring ways to bolster trade and investment with Southeast Asia, India, Australia and New Zealand. Taipei last year asked to join Asia-Pacific’s biggest working trade deal, though its application is still pending.
Supply Chains<\/strong>
Actions against Taiwan by China -- such as more military drills -- could also impact supply routes in the Taiwan Strait, which is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Almost half of the global container fleet and 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage passed through the waterway this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
More aggressive actions in the strait, though, could have more of an impact on trade routes involving Chinese ports than Taiwanese ones. The recent Chinese military exercises have had limited impact on container shipping in the Taiwan Strait, beyond some divergence of vessels away from specified military exclusion zones, said Tan Hua Joo, a consultant at the container analysis firm Linerlytica. While access to Taiwanese ports is not dependent on passage through the strait, he added, entry to ports in Hong Kong and northern China often are.
“If there’s full-blown military action, that would be a completely different story,” he said. “But given the experience in the last two weeks, I think its quite clear that China has no intention of blocking the trade routes because its own trade volumes would also be affected if there was any vessel transit restrictions.”
Economists also suspect Beijing could take steps to restrict more trade in the second half of 2022, given that President Xi Jinping may want to bolster his power ahead of a Communist Party Congress later this year, when he is expected to secure a historic third term in office. Beijing claims the self-governed island as its own territory, and has made unification a top strategic priority.
“China may broaden the trade restriction measures in the coming months or quarters,” Ma from DBS said. “Given the very busy political calendar going forward, I think it’s possible that the tensions between Beijing and Taipei may escalate gradually going forward.”
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