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绩优股反弹失败使其处于历史低位

投资者将需要判断半导体盈利前景如此大幅下滑是否合理,是否会持续下去,还是所有这些悲观情绪都被夸大了,造成了一个难得的买入机会。

芯片股价去年遭受重创。最后几个月的半心半意的反弹,避免了有记录以来第二糟糕的年度表现。但即使盈利预期大幅下调,也无法改变该行业目前处于历史低点附近的事实,这让投资者试图弄清楚是否要重新进场。

30人组成的费城半导体2022年指数(SOX)下跌36%,为2008年以来最大跌幅。如果不是最近几周反弹了28%,该指数甚至可能已经超过了当时48%的跌幅。这次反弹以失败告终的事实引发了一个问题,即它们能便宜到什么程度。

给投资者带来短暂希望的是,他们相信半导体行业正处于一代人一次的复苏之中。Covid-19大流行引发的芯片短缺向世界展示了高管们已经知道的一个事实:从汽车到弹头,所有东西都需要芯片,而且这种饥饿只会加剧。
绩优股反弹失败使其处于历史低位
美国正在实施的切断中国前沿技术供应的战略,已促使北京方面加倍努力打造自给自足的工业计划。与此同时,华盛顿、东京和布鲁塞尔的政界人士一直在提供优惠条件,以吸引主要参与者开店。最受欢迎的,台湾积体半导体制造有限公司过去几年,该公司曾宣布在美国和日本进行扩张,但对欧洲市场的任何计划守口如瓶。台积电也在推进国内建设,最近公布了其在南部的最新设施台湾
绩优股反弹失败使其处于历史低位
这种政府补贴的产能扩张,再加上全球经济放缓、利率上升,以及乌克兰入侵,使得卖方分析师对该行业未来几年的利润更加谨慎。平均而言,SOX的24个月远期收益预期自2022年第一季度的峰值以来已经下调了17%。这是自2010年以来对芯片股进行的最大一次重估。
绩优股反弹失败使其处于历史低位
根据分析师汇编的每周数据,投资者一直在紧跟这些新预期抛售,令SOX的市盈率降至18.2倍彭博.在过去20年里,这个数字在19以下的时间不到20%,在22以上的时间则有63%。
绩优股反弹失败使其处于历史低位
只有历史才能告诉我们,当前这个以战争、不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势和新技术爆发为标志的时代,是一个真正的异类,还是只是更广泛的技术进步浪潮的一部分。当然,芯片股很少有这么便宜的。投资者将需要判断半导体盈利前景如此大幅下滑是否合理,是否会持续下去,还是所有这些悲观情绪都被夸大了,造成了一个难得的买入机会。

毕竟,如果政治和商业领袖是对的,半导体在未来几年将是一种宝贵的资源。使芯片制造商地球上最重要的公司。

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Chips<\/a> shares took a beating last year. A halfhearted rebound in the final months staved off the second-worst annual performance on record. But even a huge reduction in earnings expectations doesn\u2019t change the fact that the sector is now trading around historic lows, leaving investors trying to figure out whether to wade back in.

The 30-member Philadelphia
Semiconductor<\/a> Index (SOX) dropped 36% in 2022, the biggest decline since 2008. If not for a 28% rebound, which was reversed in recent weeks, the gauge may have even surpassed the 48% drop back then. The fact that the rally fizzled out raises the question of how cheap they\u2019ll get.

What\u2019s given investors moments of fleeting hope is the belief that the semiconductor industry is in the midst of a once-in-a-generation revival. A shortage spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic showed the world what executives had already known: Chips are needed in everything from cars to warheads, and that hunger will only grow.
\"Chips’<\/figure>The US\u2019s ongoing strategy to cut China off from leading-edge technology has spurred Beijing to double down on its own plans to build a self-sufficient industry. Meanwhile, politicians in Washington, Tokyo and Brussels have been offering sweeteners to get key players to set up shop. The most sought-after, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.<\/a>, announced expansions in the US and Japan over the past couple of years while remaining tight-lipped on any plans for Europe. TSMC<\/a> is also pushing ahead with building more at home, recently unveiling its latest facility in southern Taiwan<\/a>.
\"Chips’<\/figure>This government-subsidised capacity expansion combined with a slowing global economy, rising interest rates, and the invasion of Ukraine to make sell-side analysts more cautious about the sector\u2019s profits for the next few years. On average, 24-month forward earnings estimates for the SOX have been trimmed by 17% since a peak in the first quarter of 2022. That\u2019s the largest re-rating of chip stocks since 2010.
\"Chips’<\/figure>Investors have been selling in lockstep with these new expectations, bringing the price-to-earnings ratio for the SOX down to 18.2 times, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg<\/a>. That figure has been at or below 19 for less than 20% of the last 20 years, and sat above 22 for 63% of that period.
\"Chips’<\/figure>Only history will be able to tell us whether this current era \u2014 marked by war, escalating geopolitical tension and an explosion in next technologies \u2014 is a real outlier, or just part of the broader sweep of technological progress. For sure, chip stocks are rarely this cheap. Investors will need to decide whether such a big drop in outlook for semiconductor earnings is justified and will continue, or if all this gloom is overblown and makes for a rare opportunity to buy.