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By Toby Sterling
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VELDHOVEN, Netherlands: ASML<\/a>, a semiconductor industry<\/a> and stock market giant, has to think smaller. Or maybe bigger.
It is building machines the size of double-decker buses, weighing over 200 tonnes, in its quest to produce beams of focused light that create the microscopic circuitry on computer chips<\/a> used in everything from phones and laptops to cars and AI.
The company has enjoyed a rosy decade, its shares leaping 1,000% to take its value past 200 billion euros as it swept up most of the world's business for these lithography<\/a> systems.
It's now preparing to roll out a new $400 million machine for next-generation chips which it hopes will be its flagship by the late 2020s but for now remains an engineering challenge.
Executives at ASML<\/a>'s headquarters in the Dutch town of Veldhoven told Reuters a prototype was on track to be completed in the first half of 2023. They said the company and longtime R&D partner IMEC<\/a> were setting up a test lab on the spot - a first - so top chipmakers and their suppliers can explore the machine's properties and prepare to use production models as early as 2025.
Yet, as investors expect further dominance and growth to justify ASML's valuation at 35 times 2021 earnings, there is little margin for error should the company encounter technical or supply-chain snags.
\"Every check is green right now,\" said Christophe Fouquet, head of EUV<\/a> programs at ASML. \"But, you know, we still have to see it all (assembled) together.\"
EUV<\/a> stands for extreme ultraviolet, the wavelength of light used by ASML's most advanced machines.
The fortunes of the project are also important for ASML's customers, chipmakers racing to expand production amid a global shortage. They include U.S. player Intel, South Korea's Samsung and Taiwan's TSMC<\/a>, the biggest, which makes chips for the likes of Apple, AMD and Nvidia.
Industry specialist Dan Hutcheson of VLSI Research, who is not involved with the ASML project, said the new technology - known as a \"High-NA\" version of EUV - could provide a significant advantage to some chipmakers.
\"It's a bit like who's got the best gun,\" he said.
\"So either ASML makes it happen or they don't make it happen,\" he added. \"But if they make it happen, and you don't have your orders and you miss out on this, you've immediately made yourself non-competitive.\"
He said TSMC<\/a> eclipsed its rivals by integrating ASML's EUV machines first in the late 2010s - a mistake Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has vowed not to make again with High-NA.
Lithography<\/a> is a key determinant of how small circuitry on a chip can get, with High-NA promising a 66% reduction. Smaller is better in chipmaking, as the more transistors you pack in the same space, the faster and more energy efficient a chip can be.
Circuitry is now approaching the atomic level, leading to predictions that the end is nigh for \"Moore's Law\", a famous 1960's observation that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years.
\"If they (ASML) don't succeed it will become difficult to continue with Moore's Law,\" said Jos Versteeg, an analyst at Dutch-based bank InsingerGilissen, though he noted engineers had defied similar doubts in the past.
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Since 2000, ASML has rapidly taken market share from Japanese competitors Nikon<\/a> and Canon, which now mainly focus on older technology. ASML controls more than 90% of the lithography market. No competitor is attempting to build an EUV system, citing high development costs.
Shortages of ASML's machines, which cost up to $160 million each, are a bottleneck for chipmakers, who have plans to spend more than $100 billion in the coming years to build extra fabrication plants to meet demand.
The High-NA machines will be about 30% bigger than their predecessors, which themselves require three Boeing 747s to carry them in sections.
IMEC<\/a>, a non-profit research group that cooperates with companies across the semiconductor industry<\/a>, believes setting up the lab at ASML could save up to a year in development time.
ASML said it had five orders for pilot machines, which should be delivered in 2024, and \"more than five\" orders from five different customers for faster production models for delivery starting in 2025.
But this is no slam-dunk.
There are formidable challenges in integrating a host of complex components, including an optics system of polished, hyper-smooth curved mirrors, which are being built in a vacuum by Germany's Carl Zeiss.
Versteeg at InsingerGilissen said that while ASML enjoyed a near monopoly, its \"pricing is dependent on the productivity of the machines\". Meanwhile, it must sell EUV tools to the shrinking number of companies that make leading-edge chips, which include memory chip makers SK Hynix and Micron.
ASML is also tied to the wider fortunes of the cyclical chip industry, which some researchers expect to double past $1 trillion in annual sales this decade.
Fouquet worries most about supply-chain issues.
\"Right now, and like with every other product, we see some stress in the supply chain, and this is if you ask me today, probably the biggest challenge we have with High-NA.\"
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电脑芯片巨头ASML地方小的未来上押下重注
双层巴士大小的建筑机器,重达200吨,在寻求产生光束聚焦的光线,电脑芯片上创建微型电路用于从汽车和人工智能手机和笔记本电脑。
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由托比英镑
荷兰VELDHOVEN:ASML,一个半导体行业和股票市场巨大,想变小了。或者更大。
双层巴士大小的建筑机器,重达200吨,在寻求产生光束的聚焦光创建微电路电脑芯片从手机和笔记本电脑用于汽车和人工智能。
公司已经享受了美好的十年中,其股价跳1000%将其价值超过2000亿欧元,它席卷了世界上大部分的业务光刻技术系统。
现在准备推出一个新的4亿美元的机器下一代芯片希望将由2020年代末旗舰但现在仍然是一个工程挑战。
高管ASML的总部在荷兰小镇Veldhoven告诉路透原型有望在2023年上半年完成。他们表示,该公司和长期研发伙伴IMEC当场被设置一个测试实验室——第一次——所以顶级芯片制造商及其供应商可以探索机器的属性和准备使用生产模式早在2025年。
然而,正如投资者预期进一步证明,阿斯麦公司的估值优势和增长在2021年35倍收益,有小的误差应该公司遇到技术或供应链的障碍。
说:“每一个检查现在绿色Christophe Fouquet负责人EUV在ASML项目。“但是,你知道,我们还必须看到它一起(组装)。”
EUV代表极端的紫外线光的波长ASML所使用的最先进的机器。
项目的命运也重要,阿斯麦公司的客户,芯片制造商竞相扩大生产在全球短缺。他们包括美国球员英特尔,韩国三星和台湾台积电,最大的,这使得芯片为苹果,AMD和Nvidia。
行业的VLSI专家Dan Hutcheson,并不涉及ASML项目。他说,这项新技术——被称为“High-NA”版本的EUV——可能对一些芯片制造商提供一个重要的优势。
“这有点像谁有最好的枪,”他说。
“所以ASML使其发生或他们不让它发生的,”他补充道。“但如果他们做到这一点,你没有你的订单和你错过,你立刻让自己非竞争性。”
他说台积电超越竞争对手通过整合ASML的EUV机器首先在2010年代末——一个错误英特尔首席执行官Pat Gelsinger High-NA发誓不会再做。
光刻技术是一个关键因素的小芯片上的电路可以得到与High-NA承诺减少66%。小制造更好,因为更多的晶体管你打包在同一个空间,更快和更节能的芯片。
线路现在接近原子水平,导致预测的末日就要来临了“摩尔定律”,一个著名的1960年的观察,芯片上的晶体管数量每两年就增加一倍。
“如果他们(ASML)不成功会很难继续摩尔定律,”乔斯Versteeg说,荷兰银行分析师InsingerGilissen,尽管他指出工程师过去了类似的疑虑。
首先对硅
自2000年以来,ASML快速占领市场份额从日本竞争对手尼康和佳能,现在主要集中在老技术。ASML控制超过90%的光刻技术市场。没有竞争对手试图构建一个EUV系统,以高开发成本。
ASML短缺的机器,成本高达1.6亿美元,是芯片制造商的瓶颈,他们计划花费超过1000亿美元在未来几年建立额外的制造工厂,以满足需求。
High-NA机器会比他们的前任大30%左右,自己需要三架波音747飞机携带部分。
IMEC非营利性研究机构,与对面的公司合作半导体行业认为,建立实验室在ASML每年可以节省开发时间。
ASML表示,它有5个订单试验机器,应在2024年交付,和“五多”订单从五个不同的客户更快的生产模型从2025年开始交付。
但这不是扣篮。
有强大的挑战,将大量复杂的组件,包括抛光的光学系统,hyper-smooth曲面镜,正在建设由德国卡尔蔡司在真空中。
Versteeg InsingerGilissen表示,尽管ASML喜欢一种几近垄断的地位,其“定价是依赖于生产力的机器”。与此同时,它必须出售EUV工具公司领先的芯片数量减少,其中包括内存芯片制造商SK海力士和微米。
ASML也与更广泛的命运的周期性芯片行业,一些研究人员希望这十年来两年销售额超过1万亿美元。
Fouquet最担心的供应链问题。
“现在,和与其他产品一样,我们看到一些压力在供应链,这是如果你今天问我,可能与High-NA我们面临的最大挑战。”
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