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Kolkata: Average consumer spends on mobile services<\/a> are set to rise sharply in the fiscal fourth quarter – the highest since Reliance Jio<\/a>'s entry in late-2016 - on the back of steep tariff hikes<\/a> taken last November-December by India’s top private carriers, say analysts.
“Consumer spending on mobile services<\/a> is estimated to grow by around 8-9% sequentially in the March quarter - significantly higher than in the October-December period -- on the back of sharp tariff hikes taken last November-December by the telcos,\" Kunal Vora, head of equity research at BNP Paribas, told ET.
Analysts reckon that consumer spending<\/a> on mobile services in the fourth quarter of FY22 will be the highest in a quarter since Jio<\/a>’s entry.
Overall consumer spending on mobile services saw a revival of sorts in the fiscal third-quarter, growing 4.2% sequentially to Rs 42,000 crore, crossing pre-Jio levels – the previous spending high was Rs 40,900 crore in Q1FY17. This was largely driven by the doubling of base prepaid rates - from Rs 49 to Rs 99 - initiated by the telcos last July, coupled with the partial impact of follow-up hikes taken late-November, early-December.
But analysts now expect the mobile services consumption<\/a> trend to have sharply accelerated in the March quarter, with telcos set to have benefitted significantly from the flow-through of the last round of tariff hikes.
BNP’s Vora said “growth in consumer spends on mobile services in Q4FY22 would have been even higher than 8-9%, but for the lower number of days in the March quarter, muted subscriber growth and the tariff hikes also being limited to only prepaid users”. According to industry<\/a> estimates, prepaid users garner around 85-90% of telco revenues.
Analysts said that muted subscriber growth in the March quarter was primarily due to SIM consolidation after the sharp tariff hikes in the fiscal third quarter. SIM consolidation, typically, causes a sharp drop in the number of mobile connections as consumers make fresh choices on their preferred telco brands after a round of price hikes. This often results in many consumers with two mobile connections (read: SIM cards) retaining only one.
In the fiscal third quarter, FY22, the Big 3 telcos had raised prepaid tariffs by upto 25% to boost average revenue per user (APRU) by garnering more revenue from their subscribers. Before that, Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Vodafone Idea<\/a> had initially hiked base prepaid rates in July 2021.
The telecom industry has been recovering from sustained price wars after Jio’s entry in September 2016. Jio had disrupted markets with free voice calls and low data prices that led to rapid consolidation and shrunk the sector down to just three large private players from as many 10 operators per circle not too long ago.
But subsequently, the sharp price hikes taken by Airtel, Jio and Vi in the December quarter signalled that the days of intense price competition in India’s debt-laden telecom sector are perhaps over.
Overall “postpaid net revenues grew 15.7% on-quarter to Rs 4,450 crore in Q3FY22, while prepaid net revenues rose 3.1% sequentially to Rs 34,800 crore,” ICICI Securities said in a note, analysing latest telecom sector performance data collated by the regulator.
It added that net revenues for telcos (after deducting inter-company settlements) rose 4.4% on-quarter to Rs 39,200 crore while (industry) ARPU (based on consumer spends) rose 5.3% sequentially to Rs 121 in the December quarter.
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消费者支出移动服务将十字架上pre-Jio水平4问:分析师
“移动服务消费预计将增长8 - 9%左右顺序3月季度-显著高于10的大幅上调关税被电信公司,11 - 12月刊上“Kunal Vora法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的股票研究主管,告诉等。
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加尔各答:平均消费支出移动服务将在第四季度大幅上升——以来的最高水平依赖Jio的条目- 2016年末的陡峭关税上涨去年,印度最大的私营航空公司11 - 12月刊,分析师说。
“消费者移动服务支出顺序估计增长8 - 9%,明显高于3月季度10——的大幅关税上涨了11 - 12月刊上电信公司,”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的股票研究主管Kunal Vora,告诉等。
分析人士认为,消费支出在第四季度的移动服务FY22将最高的四分之一Jio的条目。
总体消费各种各样的移动服务看到了复兴的第三财季,顺序增长4.2% 42000卢比,穿越pre-Jio——前面的支出水平高是Q1FY17 40900卢比。这在很大程度上是由基地预付率翻倍——从Rs 49 Rs 99 -由电信公司去年7月,加上后续的部分影响上涨11月下旬,比去年同期有所增长。
但分析师现在预计移动服务消费趋势在3季度急剧加速,与电信公司将明显受益的主要材料最后一轮关税上调。
BNP Vora说“Q4FY22消费者花在移动服务的增长会更加高于8 - 9%,但较低的天数在3月季度,柔和的用户增长和关税上涨也仅限于预付费用户”。根据行业估计,预付费用户获得约85 - 90%的电信收入。
分析师表示,沉默用户3月季度的增长主要是由于SIM整合后大幅关税上调第三财季。SIM合并,通常情况下,导致移动连接的数量急剧下降,消费者做出新鲜的选择他们喜欢的电信品牌经过一轮的涨价。这往往导致许多消费者和两个移动连接(阅读:SIM卡)保持只有一个。
第三财季,FY22,三大电信公司已经提高了预付关税高达25%提高每用户平均收入(APRU)获得更多的收入从他们的用户。在此之前,Bharti Airtel和沃达丰的想法2021年7月最初徒步基地预付率。
电信行业已经从持续的价格战中恢复Jio入境后在2016年9月。Jio与免费语音通话和低数据扰乱市场价格,导致快速整合和萎缩的部门减少到三个大型私人玩家尽可能多的每圈不久前10运营商。
但随后,采取的大幅涨价Airtel Jio和Vi在12月当季暗示,激烈的价格竞争的日子在印度的负债累累的电信业也许是结束了。
整体“邮资已付的净收入增长了15.7%。今年第一季度在Q3FY22 4450卢比,而预付34800卢比净营收较上季成长3.1%,”印度工业信贷投资银行证券在一份报告中称,最新分析电信行业监管机构的性能数据整理。
它补充说,电信公司净收益(扣除公司之间结算)上涨4.4%。今年第一季度39200卢比,而(行业)顺序ARPU(基于消费者花)上涨5.3%在12月当季121卢比。
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