As we get into the first quarterly results season following the demonetisation<\/a> move, retail investors are getting jittery. Most experts we spoke to say that the third quarter<\/a> numbers are going to be bad, and it is largely attributable to demonetisation. “Though we started the December quarter<\/a> on a good note, the second part of it got affected by demonetisation,” says Raamdeo Agrawal, Co-Founder, Motilal Oswal Securities. 当我们进入第一个季度财报季后demonetisation移动,散户投资者正变得越来越紧张。大多数专家说我们谈过话第三季度数字会坏,很大程度上归因于demonetisation。“虽然我们在12月开始季度在一个好注意,demonetisation,影响了它的第二部分“说Raamdeo Agrawal,联合创始人,Motilal Oswal证券。
\n
So, how bad are the results likely to be? “It is very difficult to estimate the exact value, but the third-quarter earnings<\/a> are expected to show de-growth (fall in growth compared to the same period last year) at the broad market level,” says Hemant Kanawala, Head of Equity, Kotak Life Insurance. Vibhav Kapoor, Group CIO, IL&FS is more specific: “Though this is the most difficult quarter for predicting numbers, the direction is clear. While the top-lines are expected to remain flat or show a small fall at the aggregate level, bottom-lines may fall by a bigger margin (around 5% on a year-on-year basis).”
\n
\nMost experts do not expect any negative reaction at the broader market level. “The market, on aggregate basis, already has very low expectations. So, we can call the condition as a sober quarter with very low expectations,” says Gopal Agrawal, CIO, Mirae Mutual Fund. While the broader market may remain stable during results season, be ready for fireworks at individual stock counters. “Since the calculations have become difficult, positive or negative surprises at the sector or stock level will be much greater this time,” says Kapoor. Let’s see how the various sectors will fare.
\n
\nExport-oriented sectors<\/strong>
\nFirst, for globally-driven sectors, it was business as usual in the third quarter. “As much as 50% of the Nifty’s profit is from the global market and that will not be affected by the domestic turmoil,” says Kanawala. This means that the export-oriented sectors, such as information technology (IT), pharma, etc., are likely to continue reporting decent numbers.
\n
\nStill, one needs to be careful while analysing the numbers for the IT sector. This is because the December quarter has traditionally been a dull quarter for the IT sector and, therefore, while the numbers may look good on a year-on-year basis, they may not look particularly bright on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The US dollar has strengthened during the quarter, so companies may also be impacted on account of cross-currency movements.
\n
\nSome of the other export-oriented sectors,such as textiles, leather, etc., could report bad numbers. This is because most of their supply chain continues to be cash-based and it took a hit due to the demonetisation move.
\n
\nDomestically-driven sector<\/strong>
\nAmong the domestic-oriented sectors, consumption-based ones, such as auto, have taken the maximum hit. “We expect a weak quarter for auto companies with revenue and net profit likely to decline 4% and 10% respectively, year on year,” says a recent report from Kotak Institutional Equities. As more than 60% of the two-wheeler sales were being executed in cash, the impact has been more pronounced on two-wheeler manufacturers. They would suffered even more but for higher sales in the first 40 days of the third quarter—before the demonetisation came into force.
\n
\n“FMCG companies have tried to reduce their costs (cutting down on advertisement, for instance), so the impact on their numbers in this quarter will be minimal,” says Kapoor. However, most people have postponed purchasing consumer durables, so companies from this sector should report a significant fall in revenues and net profit.
\n
\n“The numbers of the banking and financial companies are like a black box, so we need to wait for the final numbers,” says Kapoor. Several contradictory factors are affecting the financial and banking sector’s performance, making it very difficult to assess the exact impact on the sector. While a large number of deposits is a positive, the fall in credit growth is a negative. There were also cases of large pre-payment of loans through demonetised currency—a positive if they were bad loans, else a negative. “Since the bond yields came down significantly in the last quarter, banks may report good treasury gains,” says Mirae’s Agrawal. Besides banks, several cash-rich companies, with large investments in government bonds, could also report treasury gains in the December quarter.
\n
“Among the domestic sectors, demonetisation’s impact<\/a> was minimal on utilities and power, so they may continue to report good numbers,” says Kapoor.
\n
Despite Reliance Jio<\/a>’s free introductory offer, the most disruptive event for the telecom sector, most telecom companies are expected to show a small earnings growth, mostly because of the seasonality factor—historically, it has been a good quarter. Being a beneficiary of the increased competition in the sector, Bharti Infratel is expected to report good numbers.
\n
\nAmong the commodity segment, industries such as cement, steel, etc., saw a demand contraction due to demonetisation. However, global commodities such as metals, oil and gas, etc., have benefitted from the increase in commodity prices. “Their bottomline should get further support from inventory gains due to the rise in commodity prices,” says Mirae’s Agrawal.
\n
\nFor realty, it will be another weak quarter. It has taken the maximum hit due to demonetisation, say experts, because a large number of transactions were in cash. Since the realty investors and home buyers, even those okay with non-cash modes of payments, are also on a wait and watch mode now, the sector’s revenue has come down drastically in the third quarter.\n\n<\/p><\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":56401440,"title":"CES 2017: Interesting gadgets to hit India this year","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/ces-2017-interesting-gadgets-to-hit-india-this-year\/56401440","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":56401489,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Demonetisation effect on Quarter 3 corporate earnings","synopsis":"While the broader market may remain stable during results season, be ready for fireworks at individual stock counters.","titleseo":"telecomnews\/demonetisation-effect-on-quarter-3-corporate-earnings","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Narendra Nathan","author_link":"\/author\/479216212\/narendra-nathan","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479216212.cms?width=100&height=100","author_additional":{"thumbsize":false,"msid":479216212,"author_name":"Narendra Nathan","author_seo_name":"narendra-nathan","designation":"Editor","agency":false}}],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ET Bureau","artdate":"2017-01-08 12:29:53","lastupd":"2017-01-08 12:30:35","breadcrumbTags":["Reliance Jio","industry","earnings","Quarter","Third quarter","demonetisation","demonetisation\u2019s impact"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/demonetisation-effect-on-quarter-3-corporate-earnings"}}" data-authors="[" narendra nathan"]" data-category-name="" data-category_id="" data-date="2017-01-08" data-index="article_1">
所以,结果可能会有多糟糕?“很难估计准确的值,但第三季收益料显示de-growth增长下降(与去年同期相比)在广阔的市场层面,“赫曼特Kanawala表示股权,科塔克人寿保险。Vibhav Kapoor集团首席信息官,IL&FS更具体:“虽然这是最艰难的季度预测数字,方向是明确的。尽管营收预计将持平或显示一个小总水平下降,利润可能下降更大的利润率较上年同期(大约5%)。”
多数专家并不期望任何负面反应在整体市场水平。“聚合的基础上,市场已经非常低的期望。我们可以称之为条件作为一个清醒的季度与非常低的期望,“说Gopal Agrawal, CIO,未来共同基金。尽管大盘可能保持稳定在结果季节,准备烟花在个股柜台。“自计算变得困难,积极或消极的惊喜在部门或库存水平将会更大,”卡普尔说。让我们来看看各个部门将票价。
出口导向型行业
首先,globally-driven行业,这是在第三季度照常营业。“漂亮的高达50%的利润来自国际市场,将不会受到国内动荡的影响,“Kanawala说。这意味着出口导向型行业,如信息技术(IT)、制药、等,很可能会继续报告不错的数字。
仍然需要小心,同时分析编号为IT部门。这是因为12月当季历来是一个沉闷的季度对IT行业,因此,虽然这些数字可能看起来不错在同比基础上,他们可能不会较此前一个季度看起来特别明亮。在季度美元走强,所以公司也可能受到影响的货币运动。
其他一些出口型行业,如纺织、皮革、等等,可能报告坏数字。这是因为大部分的供应链仍然是(现金,由于demonetisation移动。
国内驱动型行业
内资行业中,以消费为基础的,如汽车,最大的打击。“我们预计疲软的季度汽车公司营收和净利润可能分别下降4%和10%,同比,”最近的一份报告说科塔克机构股票。摩托车和自行车的超过60%的销售额正在执行的现金,扁平轮胎制造商的影响更加明显。他们会遭受更多的但是对于更高的销售额前40天第三季度demonetisation生效。
“快速消费品公司都试图减少他们的成本(例如,减少广告),因此影响他们的人数在本季度将是最小的,”卡普尔说。然而,大多数人都推迟了购买耐用消费品,所以公司这个行业应该报告收入和净利润大幅下降。
“银行和金融公司的数字就像一个黑盒子,所以我们需要等待最后的数字,”卡普尔说。几个相互矛盾的因素影响了金融和银行业的性能,使得它很难评估部门的确切影响。虽然大量的存款是一个积极的,信贷增长是负的。也有例大型预付款的贷款通过demonetised积极得交费,如果他们不良贷款,其他负面。“自债券收益率明显在去年最后一个季度,银行可能会报告良好的财政收益,“未来的Agrawal说。除了银行之外,一些现金充裕的企业,拥有大量投资于政府债券,也可以在12月的季度报告财政收益。
“在国内行业中,demonetisation的影响是最小的公用事业和力量,所以他们可能会继续报告好数字,”卡普尔说。
尽管依赖Jio免费的宣传品,电信行业的最具破坏性的事件,大多数电信公司预计将显示一个小利润增长,主要是因为季节性factor-historically,这是一个良好的季度。作为受益人的行业竞争加剧,鼓吹他预计报告好数字。
在大宗商品市场,行业,如水泥、钢铁、等,由于demonetisation看到需求萎缩。然而,全球大宗商品如金属、石油和天然气,等等,受益于商品价格的增加。“他们的底线应该得到进一步的支持库存收益由于大宗商品价格上涨,“未来的Agrawal说。
对于不动产,它将会是另一个疲软的季度。由于demonetisation花了最大的打击,专家说,因为大量的交易是现金。由于不动产投资者和购房者,即使是那些与非现金支付方式好,现在也在等待和观察模式,该行业在第三季度的收入已经大幅下降。
As we get into the first quarterly results season following the demonetisation<\/a> move, retail investors are getting jittery. Most experts we spoke to say that the third quarter<\/a> numbers are going to be bad, and it is largely attributable to demonetisation. “Though we started the December quarter<\/a> on a good note, the second part of it got affected by demonetisation,” says Raamdeo Agrawal, Co-Founder, Motilal Oswal Securities.
\n
So, how bad are the results likely to be? “It is very difficult to estimate the exact value, but the third-quarter earnings<\/a> are expected to show de-growth (fall in growth compared to the same period last year) at the broad market level,” says Hemant Kanawala, Head of Equity, Kotak Life Insurance. Vibhav Kapoor, Group CIO, IL&FS is more specific: “Though this is the most difficult quarter for predicting numbers, the direction is clear. While the top-lines are expected to remain flat or show a small fall at the aggregate level, bottom-lines may fall by a bigger margin (around 5% on a year-on-year basis).”
\n
\nMost experts do not expect any negative reaction at the broader market level. “The market, on aggregate basis, already has very low expectations. So, we can call the condition as a sober quarter with very low expectations,” says Gopal Agrawal, CIO, Mirae Mutual Fund. While the broader market may remain stable during results season, be ready for fireworks at individual stock counters. “Since the calculations have become difficult, positive or negative surprises at the sector or stock level will be much greater this time,” says Kapoor. Let’s see how the various sectors will fare.
\n
\nExport-oriented sectors<\/strong>
\nFirst, for globally-driven sectors, it was business as usual in the third quarter. “As much as 50% of the Nifty’s profit is from the global market and that will not be affected by the domestic turmoil,” says Kanawala. This means that the export-oriented sectors, such as information technology (IT), pharma, etc., are likely to continue reporting decent numbers.
\n
\nStill, one needs to be careful while analysing the numbers for the IT sector. This is because the December quarter has traditionally been a dull quarter for the IT sector and, therefore, while the numbers may look good on a year-on-year basis, they may not look particularly bright on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The US dollar has strengthened during the quarter, so companies may also be impacted on account of cross-currency movements.
\n
\nSome of the other export-oriented sectors,such as textiles, leather, etc., could report bad numbers. This is because most of their supply chain continues to be cash-based and it took a hit due to the demonetisation move.
\n
\nDomestically-driven sector<\/strong>
\nAmong the domestic-oriented sectors, consumption-based ones, such as auto, have taken the maximum hit. “We expect a weak quarter for auto companies with revenue and net profit likely to decline 4% and 10% respectively, year on year,” says a recent report from Kotak Institutional Equities. As more than 60% of the two-wheeler sales were being executed in cash, the impact has been more pronounced on two-wheeler manufacturers. They would suffered even more but for higher sales in the first 40 days of the third quarter—before the demonetisation came into force.
\n
\n“FMCG companies have tried to reduce their costs (cutting down on advertisement, for instance), so the impact on their numbers in this quarter will be minimal,” says Kapoor. However, most people have postponed purchasing consumer durables, so companies from this sector should report a significant fall in revenues and net profit.
\n
\n“The numbers of the banking and financial companies are like a black box, so we need to wait for the final numbers,” says Kapoor. Several contradictory factors are affecting the financial and banking sector’s performance, making it very difficult to assess the exact impact on the sector. While a large number of deposits is a positive, the fall in credit growth is a negative. There were also cases of large pre-payment of loans through demonetised currency—a positive if they were bad loans, else a negative. “Since the bond yields came down significantly in the last quarter, banks may report good treasury gains,” says Mirae’s Agrawal. Besides banks, several cash-rich companies, with large investments in government bonds, could also report treasury gains in the December quarter.
\n
“Among the domestic sectors, demonetisation’s impact<\/a> was minimal on utilities and power, so they may continue to report good numbers,” says Kapoor.
\n
Despite Reliance Jio<\/a>’s free introductory offer, the most disruptive event for the telecom sector, most telecom companies are expected to show a small earnings growth, mostly because of the seasonality factor—historically, it has been a good quarter. Being a beneficiary of the increased competition in the sector, Bharti Infratel is expected to report good numbers.
\n
\nAmong the commodity segment, industries such as cement, steel, etc., saw a demand contraction due to demonetisation. However, global commodities such as metals, oil and gas, etc., have benefitted from the increase in commodity prices. “Their bottomline should get further support from inventory gains due to the rise in commodity prices,” says Mirae’s Agrawal.
\n
\nFor realty, it will be another weak quarter. It has taken the maximum hit due to demonetisation, say experts, because a large number of transactions were in cash. Since the realty investors and home buyers, even those okay with non-cash modes of payments, are also on a wait and watch mode now, the sector’s revenue has come down drastically in the third quarter.\n\n<\/p><\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":56401440,"title":"CES 2017: Interesting gadgets to hit India this year","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/ces-2017-interesting-gadgets-to-hit-india-this-year\/56401440","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":56401489,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Demonetisation effect on Quarter 3 corporate earnings","synopsis":"While the broader market may remain stable during results season, be ready for fireworks at individual stock counters.","titleseo":"telecomnews\/demonetisation-effect-on-quarter-3-corporate-earnings","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Narendra Nathan","author_link":"\/author\/479216212\/narendra-nathan","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479216212.cms?width=100&height=100","author_additional":{"thumbsize":false,"msid":479216212,"author_name":"Narendra Nathan","author_seo_name":"narendra-nathan","designation":"Editor","agency":false}}],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ET Bureau","artdate":"2017-01-08 12:29:53","lastupd":"2017-01-08 12:30:35","breadcrumbTags":["Reliance Jio","industry","earnings","Quarter","Third quarter","demonetisation","demonetisation\u2019s impact"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/demonetisation-effect-on-quarter-3-corporate-earnings"}}" data-news_link="//www.iser-br.com/news/demonetisation-effect-on-quarter-3-corporate-earnings/56401489">
评论
现在评论 阅读评论(1)所有评论
找到这个评论进攻?
下面选择你的理由并单击submit按钮。这将提醒我们的版主采取行动