What is currently leading the market because we are getting very confusing cues?
<\/strong>Yes, and that happens when global markets are at lifetime highs. We are an outperforming market, if you see year to date India is up about 13% while MSCI emerging markets is down about 3% and that is largely because of the Chinese underperformance. China has a huge portion in the MSCI emerging markets. So clearly India has been an outperformer more on a hope rally that earnings are recovering. It is very difficult to compare as you cannot do year-on-year comparisons because it was a total lockdown and you cannot do quarter-on-quarter comparisons because this quarter was a bigger lockdown than the last quarter of the last fiscal or the first quarter of the calendar year.
So it is difficult to compare but as against expectations, the Nifty<\/a> earnings have been underperforming in a majority of cases and the trends which are a little worrisome are that the higher retail NPAs. Even quality banks like HDFC Bank made bigger provisions and reported higher NPAs. So the market is worried whether that will flow through. As the weaker hands start reporting over the next couple of weeks, we will see how much more of an impact it has been.
We saw some housing finance companies reporting pretty bad numbers. We saw some rural finance companies reporting pretty bad numbers. One pharma major reporting lower US revenues led to a rerating downwards on pharma. Those are the worrisome issues but I would say the market will be determined by global trends and global trends are upwards. Global economic recovery is strong. The S&P 500 is on course to deliver about 86% earnings growth this year and that is what will carry the global markets. We will be beneficiaries. So far we have been outperformers. We will maintain our outperformance vis-à-vis the emerging markets.
Which sectors do you think are going to be most vulnerable to cost inflation?
<\/strong>About 53% of the Nifty earnings are directly impacted by commodity costs in a big way and IT is seeing a big wage increase because of attrition and because of expansion. It is not going away in a rush. So nearly 50% of the Nifty earnings will get impacted. The IT part gets impacted by the wage spiral that we are seeing and the push by customers to reduce costs and we have seen margins under pressure.
The good thing is that the cost cut measures that have been taken over the last one year, has allowed companies to manage the costs. For example, even though Colgate was under input cost pressures, they managed to deliver a very sharp rise on the profit front by taking these cost outs. So Indian companies have taken a deep look at their cost base and that will happen. But as a macro trend, inflation is there at least for the next three to four months. Then we will see a little bit of cooling off in India. It is not that much of a bug globally.
In the case of India, given the position of oil, there is very little space to hide, that itself becomes such a huge cost push inflation factor which negates any other thing. Fiscal and monetary stimulus are inherently inflationary. So, it is very difficult to foresee inflation coming down and I am hoping RBI will also agree with that that there is very little monetary policy and what hiking rates can do in such a cost push environment.
One has to wait for the global cost pressures to get taken out or wait for the base impact to come in next year. That is when you will get some relief. Given that, through these cost outs, companies will deliver on the bottom line. There will be an expansion in volumes in the second half of the year.
The mobility indicators are already back to the March quarter numbers so we have had a dip in this June quarter but we are expecting a stronger macro in this quarter and which will accelerate as the festival season starts, it will accelerate going into the winters unless there is a very big third wave, we are really not expecting that looking at the UK scenario. We are expecting a mild third wave, but let’s keep our fingers crossed.
Do you think that the pricing power is returning to the telecom sector, especially Bharti Airtel<\/a>?
<\/strong>If you look at the post paid part, that is 5% of the customers and 20% of revenues and within that, a very small portion got impacted. In prepaid, it is a very low level, starting package which has been removed. Telecom players have really flattered to deceive is what I would say. For multiple years, they have not really delivered. We thought over the last one year with the AGR issue finally coming to a closure, there is some way to value these companies.
Secondly, a few months back, Sunil Mittal had come out and said that Airtel was looking at an ARPU of Rs 300 and that was music to the market’s ears. But we have seen the stocks underperforming. ARPUs are staying in the Rs 130-140 range. The other disconcerting factor is if you look at the customer growth numbers, Vodafone<\/a> and Bharti both have lost a chunk of customers as per yesterday’s reports.
I would say there are very few drivers really in place. We do not see some kind of an agreement or some kind of managerial will to take the bitter pill and get rid of non-profitable customers and increase the ARPUs from profitable customers. All of us are willing to pay higher for better services. Today all of us are using internet calls to communicate because the normal calls just do not get completed.
Most customers are willing to pay more but it is a fight down to destruction amongst the three players. We are really not seeing the ARPUs increasing so right now I am not very sanguine. Bharti will touch Rs 600 and come back again because those drivers for the sector are really lacking.
There is no big surge of value added services. There is no revenue in voice anymore. We had thought VAS will create some services and revenue pools but even those have not really taken off. Overall, they are not generating much from that customer and I would say it is better to upgrade to premiumise service and offer a more reliable service to higher paying customers than to just go for these millions of customers and not deliver anything either to the shareholder or to the customer.
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现在购买电信股票有意义吗?Ajay Bagga答案
“电信玩家真的受宠若惊欺骗人。多年来,他们真的没有了。我真的会说很少有司机。我们没有看到某种协议或某种管理将苦涩的药丸和摆脱教学客户和提高arpu从有利可图的客户。”
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“全球经济复苏强劲。标准普尔500指数有望在今年收入增长约86%,这就是将全球市场。我们将受益者。说:“印度保持胜过其他新兴市场专家Ajay Bagga。
目前主要市场,因为我们是非常令人困惑的线索吗?
是的,当全球市场处于纪录高点。我们是一个超越市场,如果你看到今年迄今印度上涨了约13%,而摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)新兴市场下跌了约3%,这主要是因为中国表现不佳。中国有很大一部分在MSCI新兴市场。显然印度一直是佼佼者更多盈利复苏的希望反弹。很难比较你不能做同比数据,因为这是一个季度比较封锁,你总不能因为这个季度是一个更大的封锁比上季度的财政或日历年度的第一季度。
所以很难但与预期相比,漂亮的业绩表现不佳的在大多数情况下,一个小的趋势令人担忧的是,零售npa就越高。即使质量HDFC银行银行更大的规定和更高的npa报道。因此市场担心这是否会流过。较弱的手开始报告在接下来的几周,我们将会看到有多少的影响。
我们看到一些住房金融公司报告很糟糕的数字。我们看到一些农村金融公司报告很糟糕的数字。制药公司一个主要报道美国收入低导致制药公司重新评估下。这些都是令人担忧的问题,但我认为市场将由全球趋势和全球趋势是向上的。全球经济复苏是强大的。标准普尔500指数有望在今年收入增长约86%,这就是将全球市场。我们将受益者。到目前为止,我们已经为业绩优胜者。我们将保持我们的出色表现与新兴市场。
你认为哪个行业都是最容易受到成本通胀?
大约53%的漂亮的业绩直接影响商品成本在很大程度上,看到一个大的加薪因为摩擦和扩张。不会匆忙。所以近50%的漂亮的业绩将会受到影响。它会影响一部分工资螺旋,我们看到和推动客户降低成本,我们已经看到利润率面临压力。
好事是,成本削减措施,已在过去的一年,使得企业管理成本。例如,尽管高露洁输入成本压力下,他们设法提供一个非常急剧上升在利润方面通过这些成本出局。所以印度公司已经深看它们的成本基础,这将发生。但作为一个宏观趋势,通货膨胀有至少未来三到四个月。然后我们会看到一点点的冷却在印度。这并不是说全球的bug。
在印度,由于石油的地位,很少有隐藏的空间,本身变得如此巨大的成本推进通货膨胀因素而否定其他的事情。财政和货币刺激措施本质上是通货膨胀。所以,很难预见通胀下降,我希望央行也会同意,很少有货币政策和提高利率能做什么在这样一个环境成本推进。
必须等待全球成本压力得到了或等待基础影响明年。当你将会得到一些缓解。鉴于此,通过这些成本出局,公司会兑现底线。将会有一个扩张数量在今年下半年。
流动性指标已经回到3月季度数字所以我们在今年6月季度已经下降,但是我们在本季度预计更宏观,这将加速随着节日季节的开始,这将加速进入冬天,除非有一个非常大的第三次浪潮,我们真的不希望看到英国的场景。我们期待一个轻微的第三次浪潮,但让我们保持我们的祈祷。
你认为定价权是返回到电信部门,特别是吗Bharti Airtel吗?
如果你看看邮资已付的部分,是客户的5%和20%的收入,在一个非常小的一部分有影响。在预付,这是一个非常低的水平,开始包已被移除。电信玩家真正自欺欺人的是我想说的。多年来,他们真的没有了。我们认为在过去一年的AGR问题终于来了一个闭包,有这些公司价值的方法。
其次,几个月前,苏尼尔•米塔尔已经出来了,说Airtel看着ARPU Rs 300那是音乐市场的耳朵。但我们已经看到了股市表现不佳。arpu住在Rs 130 - 140区间。另一个令人不安的因素是看客户增长数据,沃达丰(Vodafone)和Bharti都失去了一大块客户按昨天的报告。
我真的会说很少有司机。我们没有看到某种协议或某种管理将苦涩的药丸和摆脱教学客户和提高arpu从有利可图的客户。我们所有人愿意支付更高的更好的服务。今天我们所有人使用互联网电话沟通,因为正常的电话就没有得到完成。
大多数消费者愿意花更多的钱但它是一个战斗破坏的三名球员。我们真的没有看到arpu增加所以现在我不是很乐观。Bharti将Rs 600,再回来,因为那些司机对该行业非常缺乏。
没有大的增值服务。没有收入的声音了。我们认为血管将创建一些服务和收入池但是即使那些没有真正起飞。总的来说,它们不是生成的客户和我说最好是升级到premiumise服务和付费用户提供更可靠的服务高于为这些数以百万计的客户才行,不提供任何股东或给客户。
目前主要市场,因为我们是非常令人困惑的线索吗?
是的,当全球市场处于纪录高点。我们是一个超越市场,如果你看到今年迄今印度上涨了约13%,而摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)新兴市场下跌了约3%,这主要是因为中国表现不佳。中国有很大一部分在MSCI新兴市场。显然印度一直是佼佼者更多盈利复苏的希望反弹。很难比较你不能做同比数据,因为这是一个季度比较封锁,你总不能因为这个季度是一个更大的封锁比上季度的财政或日历年度的第一季度。
所以很难但与预期相比,漂亮的业绩表现不佳的在大多数情况下,一个小的趋势令人担忧的是,零售npa就越高。即使质量HDFC银行银行更大的规定和更高的npa报道。因此市场担心这是否会流过。较弱的手开始报告在接下来的几周,我们将会看到有多少的影响。
我们看到一些住房金融公司报告很糟糕的数字。我们看到一些农村金融公司报告很糟糕的数字。制药公司一个主要报道美国收入低导致制药公司重新评估下。这些都是令人担忧的问题,但我认为市场将由全球趋势和全球趋势是向上的。全球经济复苏是强大的。标准普尔500指数有望在今年收入增长约86%,这就是将全球市场。我们将受益者。到目前为止,我们已经为业绩优胜者。我们将保持我们的出色表现与新兴市场。
你认为哪个行业都是最容易受到成本通胀?
大约53%的漂亮的业绩直接影响商品成本在很大程度上,看到一个大的加薪因为摩擦和扩张。不会匆忙。所以近50%的漂亮的业绩将会受到影响。它会影响一部分工资螺旋,我们看到和推动客户降低成本,我们已经看到利润率面临压力。
好事是,成本削减措施,已在过去的一年,使得企业管理成本。例如,尽管高露洁输入成本压力下,他们设法提供一个非常急剧上升在利润方面通过这些成本出局。所以印度公司已经深看它们的成本基础,这将发生。但作为一个宏观趋势,通货膨胀有至少未来三到四个月。然后我们会看到一点点的冷却在印度。这并不是说全球的bug。
在印度,由于石油的地位,很少有隐藏的空间,本身变得如此巨大的成本推进通货膨胀因素而否定其他的事情。财政和货币刺激措施本质上是通货膨胀。所以,很难预见通胀下降,我希望央行也会同意,很少有货币政策和提高利率能做什么在这样一个环境成本推进。
必须等待全球成本压力得到了或等待基础影响明年。当你将会得到一些缓解。鉴于此,通过这些成本出局,公司会兑现底线。将会有一个扩张数量在今年下半年。
流动性指标已经回到3月季度数字所以我们在今年6月季度已经下降,但是我们在本季度预计更宏观,这将加速随着节日季节的开始,这将加速进入冬天,除非有一个非常大的第三次浪潮,我们真的不希望看到英国的场景。我们期待一个轻微的第三次浪潮,但让我们保持我们的祈祷。
你认为定价权是返回到电信部门,特别是吗Bharti Airtel吗?
如果你看看邮资已付的部分,是客户的5%和20%的收入,在一个非常小的一部分有影响。在预付,这是一个非常低的水平,开始包已被移除。电信玩家真正自欺欺人的是我想说的。多年来,他们真的没有了。我们认为在过去一年的AGR问题终于来了一个闭包,有这些公司价值的方法。
其次,几个月前,苏尼尔•米塔尔已经出来了,说Airtel看着ARPU Rs 300那是音乐市场的耳朵。但我们已经看到了股市表现不佳。arpu住在Rs 130 - 140区间。另一个令人不安的因素是看客户增长数据,沃达丰(Vodafone)和Bharti都失去了一大块客户按昨天的报告。
我真的会说很少有司机。我们没有看到某种协议或某种管理将苦涩的药丸和摆脱教学客户和提高arpu从有利可图的客户。我们所有人愿意支付更高的更好的服务。今天我们所有人使用互联网电话沟通,因为正常的电话就没有得到完成。
大多数消费者愿意花更多的钱但它是一个战斗破坏的三名球员。我们真的没有看到arpu增加所以现在我不是很乐观。Bharti将Rs 600,再回来,因为那些司机对该行业非常缺乏。
没有大的增值服务。没有收入的声音了。我们认为血管将创建一些服务和收入池但是即使那些没有真正起飞。总的来说,它们不是生成的客户和我说最好是升级到premiumise服务和付费用户提供更可靠的服务高于为这些数以百万计的客户才行,不提供任何股东或给客户。
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