Seeking to understand Beijing’s regulatory crackdown, some economists are looking over 4,500 miles away to an unlikely inspiration: Berlin. 德国式监管吸引中国在几个方面,Chris Leung说,星展银行集团控股有限公司首席中国经济学家德国大型国有银行,一个强劲的制造业出口行业,它没有经历过第二次世界大战以来的金融危机。 试图了解北京的监管打击,一些经济学家正在寻找在4500英里外的一个不太可能的灵感:柏林。
China<\/a> has turned from “the American way” to “the German way,” Chen Li, a senior strategist at brokerage Soochow Securities Co., wrote in a recent presentation that was widely shared on Chinese social media.
German-style regulation appeals to China in several ways, says Chris Leung, chief China economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. Germany<\/a> has large state-owned banks, a strong manufacturing export sector, and it hasn’t experienced a financial crisis since World War II.
“The departure of Beijing from the Anglo-Saxon model has already begun,” Leung wrote in a note Monday. “The German model is a strong contender as a guiding development model.”
While the analogy with Germany has its limits, there are at least three areas of convergence worth pointing out: anti-trust rules, an emphasis on manufacturing over services and its approach to education.
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Anti-Trust<\/strong>
Beijing is trying to shrink the market power of its largest private sector companies in technology and real estate, updating its anti-trust regulations to cover Internet services. Tech companies -- including two of the biggest success stories of China’s private economy, Alibaba<\/a> Group Holdings Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd.<\/a> -- have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in market value since the push began last year.
There’s a recognition that “companies like Facebook<\/a> and Twitter<\/a> don’t necessarily contribute to the common good and that the business model is about operating in a low regulation space,” said Rogier Creemers, a Chinese studies professor at Leiden University in the Netherlands. “That’s where the ‘we want to be like Germany’ idea comes from.”
China consulted German experts while writing its anti-monopoly regulations, said Peter Hefele, head of the Asia-Pacific department at Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a foundation affiliated with Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union party. “They copied a lot from German law.”
Manufacturing Share<\/strong>
China wants to become a developed economy without losing its industrial base. Beijing’s five-year economic plan released in March contains no target for the consumption share of the economy, but it does pledge to keep the share generated by manufacturing “basically stable” at 25%.
That echoes the German model, where manufacturing accounts for about 18% of economic output, compared with about 11% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.
“The admiration comes from the idea that Germany has never given up its industrial core, and that it may be more important than the service industry,” said Doris Fischer, chair of China business and economics at the University of Würzburg.
Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” program, with its focus on increasing domestic manufacturing in tech sectors, was inspired by Germany’s Industry 4.0 blueprint. While Beijing has downplayed that program following a backlash led by Washington, the trade war with the U.S. has only accelerated its ambitions for more manufacturing self-reliance.
“Chinese people have a strong view that the basis of the German economy is not the large listed companies, but middle-sized businesses that are ahead in technology,” said Bernard Kemper, chief executive of EEW Energy from Waste GmbH, which was acquired by a Chinese company in 2016. “China wants to learn from that.”
Vocational Education<\/strong>
Beijing took a hammer to its for-profit tutoring sector last month, leading to the closure of companies that helped kids to cram abstract knowledge outside of schools. By contrast, the private sector is being welcomed to take part in vocational colleges that teach practical skills. Vocational education is emphasized in Beijing’s five-year plan and has “great potential as China journeys toward socialist modernization,” President Xi Jinping said in April.
“Strict regulations have largely put the brakes on China’s education sector,” HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report last week. “But for vocational education, it’s a different story as policy<\/a> has been supportive.”
In a draft vocational education law issued this year, Beijing promised a “fusion of industry and education,” aping Germany’s system, where private companies provide paid internship opportunities.
“The only country where I’ve seen that imitated on a larger scale is China,” said Hermann Simon, chairman of German consultancy Simon-Kucher & Partners.
The Differences<\/strong>
Beijing also wants to avoid some key features of Germany’s model. It has no tolerance for independent trade unions. China has signaled it will maintain state investment at a higher rate than Germany, and wants to rely on domestic demand to drive economic growth rather than exports. While Beijing wants regulations to bind low-level officials, the top level of the ruling Communist Party has no independent check on its power.
“Market forces are being released in half the economy, and in the other half with national champions, it’s the opposite,” said Jacob Gunter, China economy analyst at Berlin-based think tank MERICS. “China wants to learn from Germany. That may be the case in areas dominated by the private sector. But elsewhere Beijing is keen to have a handful of large players because they are easier to direct.”
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经济学家看德国模式来解释中国的镇压
中国已从“美国方式”转变为“德国模式”,陈莉,高级策略师经纪东吴证券有限公司在最近的一份报告中写道,中国社交媒体被广泛共享。
德国式监管吸引中国在几个方面,首席中国经济学家Chris Leung说星展集团控股有限公司德国大型国有银行,一个强劲的制造业出口行业,它没有经历过第二次世界大战以来的金融危机。
类比与德国有其局限性,收敛至少有三个方面值得指出:反垄断规则,强调生产服务和它的教育方法。
反垄断
北京方面正试图缩小的市场力量最大的私营企业在技术和房地产,更新其反垄断规定网络服务。最大的科技公司——包括两个中国私营经济的成功故事,阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司和腾讯控股有限公司。——失去了数千亿美元自去年开始推动市场价值。
有识别”这样的公司脸谱网和推特不一定有助于公共利益和商业模式是关于操作在低调节空间,“Rogier Creemers说在荷兰莱顿大学中国研究教授。“这就是我们想要像德国的想法的来源。”
中国咨询德国专家在写它的反垄断规定,Peter Hefele说Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung亚太部门主管,隶属于基础德国中间偏右的基督教民主联盟的聚会。“他们从德国法律复制很多。”
制造业的份额
中国想成为一个发达经济体不失其工业基础。北京的五年经济计划在3月发布不包含消费占经济的目标,但它确实承诺保持份额由制造业“基本稳定”为25%。
德国模式相呼应,制造业占经济产出的18%,相比之下,在美国约11%根据世界银行。
“赞赏来自德国从未放弃其工业核心,而且它可能比服务行业更重要,”多丽丝·费希尔说,中国业务主席和维尔茨堡大学经济学。
北京的2025年“中国制造”项目,以其专注于提高国内制造业在技术领域,灵感来源于德国的工业4.0蓝图。北京已经淡化,反弹后程序由华盛顿的贸易战争与美国只有加速其野心制造业自力更生。
“中国人有强烈的观点,德国经济的基础不是大型上市公司,但在中型企业技术,”伯纳德Kemper说EEW能量浪费GmbH首席执行官在2016年被一家中国公司收购。“中国想学。”
职业教育
北京一个锤营利性辅导部门上个月,导致关闭的公司帮助孩子补习学校以外的抽象的知识。相比之下,私营部门被欢迎参加高职院校教授实用技能。职业教育是强调在北京的五年计划和“巨大潜力作为中国社会主义现代化建设之旅,”习近平副主席在4月说。
“严格规定在很大程度上刹住中国教育部门,”汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings Plc)上周在一份报告中表示。“但对于职业教育,这是一个不同的故事政策已经支持。”
今年发表的一份职业教育法律草案中,北京承诺”工业和教育的融合,“模仿德国的系统,在私人公司提供带薪实习机会。
“唯一的国家,我看到大规模模仿中国,”赫尔曼•西蒙表示德国咨询公司主席赛门。
的差异
北京德国也想避免一些关键特性的模型。它没有对独立的工会。中国已表示将保持国家投资以更高的速度比德国,并希望依靠国内需求来拉动经济增长而不是出口。虽然北京希望规定将低级官员,执政的共产党的高层没有独立检查。
“市场的力量被释放在经济的一半,另一半与国家冠军企业,相反,”雅各布·冈特说,中国经济分析师柏林智美力克。“中国希望从德国学习。这可能是在以私营企业为主的地区。但其他地方北京渴望有几个大的球员,因为他们更容易直接。”
读到
Seeking to understand Beijing’s regulatory crackdown, some economists are looking over 4,500 miles away to an unlikely inspiration: Berlin.
China<\/a> has turned from “the American way” to “the German way,” Chen Li, a senior strategist at brokerage Soochow Securities Co., wrote in a recent presentation that was widely shared on Chinese social media.
German-style regulation appeals to China in several ways, says Chris Leung, chief China economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. Germany<\/a> has large state-owned banks, a strong manufacturing export sector, and it hasn’t experienced a financial crisis since World War II.
“The departure of Beijing from the Anglo-Saxon model has already begun,” Leung wrote in a note Monday. “The German model is a strong contender as a guiding development model.”
While the analogy with Germany has its limits, there are at least three areas of convergence worth pointing out: anti-trust rules, an emphasis on manufacturing over services and its approach to education.
Anti-Trust<\/strong>
Beijing is trying to shrink the market power of its largest private sector companies in technology and real estate, updating its anti-trust regulations to cover Internet services. Tech companies -- including two of the biggest success stories of China’s private economy, Alibaba<\/a> Group Holdings Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd.<\/a> -- have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in market value since the push began last year.
There’s a recognition that “companies like Facebook<\/a> and Twitter<\/a> don’t necessarily contribute to the common good and that the business model is about operating in a low regulation space,” said Rogier Creemers, a Chinese studies professor at Leiden University in the Netherlands. “That’s where the ‘we want to be like Germany’ idea comes from.”
China consulted German experts while writing its anti-monopoly regulations, said Peter Hefele, head of the Asia-Pacific department at Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a foundation affiliated with Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union party. “They copied a lot from German law.”
Manufacturing Share<\/strong>
China wants to become a developed economy without losing its industrial base. Beijing’s five-year economic plan released in March contains no target for the consumption share of the economy, but it does pledge to keep the share generated by manufacturing “basically stable” at 25%.
That echoes the German model, where manufacturing accounts for about 18% of economic output, compared with about 11% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.
“The admiration comes from the idea that Germany has never given up its industrial core, and that it may be more important than the service industry,” said Doris Fischer, chair of China business and economics at the University of Würzburg.
Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” program, with its focus on increasing domestic manufacturing in tech sectors, was inspired by Germany’s Industry 4.0 blueprint. While Beijing has downplayed that program following a backlash led by Washington, the trade war with the U.S. has only accelerated its ambitions for more manufacturing self-reliance.
“Chinese people have a strong view that the basis of the German economy is not the large listed companies, but middle-sized businesses that are ahead in technology,” said Bernard Kemper, chief executive of EEW Energy from Waste GmbH, which was acquired by a Chinese company in 2016. “China wants to learn from that.”
Vocational Education<\/strong>
Beijing took a hammer to its for-profit tutoring sector last month, leading to the closure of companies that helped kids to cram abstract knowledge outside of schools. By contrast, the private sector is being welcomed to take part in vocational colleges that teach practical skills. Vocational education is emphasized in Beijing’s five-year plan and has “great potential as China journeys toward socialist modernization,” President Xi Jinping said in April.
“Strict regulations have largely put the brakes on China’s education sector,” HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report last week. “But for vocational education, it’s a different story as policy<\/a> has been supportive.”
In a draft vocational education law issued this year, Beijing promised a “fusion of industry and education,” aping Germany’s system, where private companies provide paid internship opportunities.
“The only country where I’ve seen that imitated on a larger scale is China,” said Hermann Simon, chairman of German consultancy Simon-Kucher & Partners.
The Differences<\/strong>
Beijing also wants to avoid some key features of Germany’s model. It has no tolerance for independent trade unions. China has signaled it will maintain state investment at a higher rate than Germany, and wants to rely on domestic demand to drive economic growth rather than exports. While Beijing wants regulations to bind low-level officials, the top level of the ruling Communist Party has no independent check on its power.
“Market forces are being released in half the economy, and in the other half with national champions, it’s the opposite,” said Jacob Gunter, China economy analyst at Berlin-based think tank MERICS. “China wants to learn from Germany. That may be the case in areas dominated by the private sector. But elsewhere Beijing is keen to have a handful of large players because they are easier to direct.”
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