Addis Ababa: For delivery man Sisay Alebachew, the difference between a good and bad day depends on Ethio Telecom<\/a>, Ethiopia's monopoly telecoms provider. 亚的斯亚贝巴:送货员Sisay Alebachew,之间的区别取决于好的和坏的一天Ethio电信、埃塞俄比亚电信的垄断提供者。
When the internet is down or too slow to use, customers struggle to place orders on the website of Deliver Addis, Sisay's e-commerce employer, meaning he has little to do.
Other times, when the phone network is jammed, Sisay can't reach customers to complete deliveries -- he wastes precious time standing outside their homes, dialling in vain.
Sisay is thrilled, then, that after years of build-up, change finally seems to be coming to Ethiopia's stunted telecoms sector, one of the last closed markets in the world.
Last week the government regulator invited firms to submit \"expressions of interest\" for two new telecoms licences that would break up Ethio Telecom's monopoly.
Officials also plan to sell a 40-percent stake in Ethio Telecom, a move they hope will make the firm more efficient.
\"For a business like ours, telecoms is crucial, and it's the most difficult challenge we face,\" Sisay told AFP during a break from his rounds one recent afternoon.
\"I've heard that many countries have a better connection compared to us. I'm hoping ours will improve when other companies join the market.\"
The shake-up of the telecoms sector is a cornerstone of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's economic reform agenda, although there are several big unknowns.
These include how much money outside firms will need to fork up to enter the market and what, exactly, the revamped sector will look like.
Nevertheless it's \"an exciting time\", said Deliver Addis founder Feleg Tsegaye.
\"I think everyone in the tech scene has at one point or another been wondering, 'When is this going to happen?'\"
- 'New growth area' - The Ethiopian Communications Authority, the regulator, has given firms until June 22 to submit expressions of interest for licences.
Potential bidders include France's Orange, Kenya's Safaricom and South Africa's MTN.
The value of licences could well exceed $1 billion each, and firms will also need to finance improvements to telecoms infrastructure held back by years of underinvestment.
Analysts point out that many firms see the cost as a bargain, given Ethiopia's population of 110 million -- plus the fact that Ethio Telecom currently has only around 44 million subscribers.
\"Ethiopia obviously represents this new growth area, and any operator would want to get in on the ground floor,\" said Chiti Mbizule, analyst at Fitch Solutions.
\"But despite the significant potential that we maintain Ethiopia has, for any player entering this market, it's not going to be cheap.\"
- Mobile money, shutdowns - There are some concerns that outside firms' operations will be limited.
A central bank directive issued last month allows non-financial firms to provide mobile financial services, but only if they're locally owned.
That could be a problem for companies like Safaricom and Orange which place mobile money at the centre of their business models.
Additionally, Ethiopia has developed a reputation for extended internet shutdowns during periods of social unrest and more innocuous events like national exams.
One of the most important things going forward will be for the government to assure outside firms they'll be operating on a \"level playing field\" with Ethio Telecom, said Zemedeneh Negatu, chairman of the US-based Fairfax Africa Fund.
\"It's the biggest untapped market left in the world, so all the serious players are pretty excited about the Ethiopian market,\" Zemedeneh said.
\"But on the Ethiopian side, we have to make sure to monetise that.\"
- 'No mandate'? - Perhaps inevitably, the telecoms reforms face political headwinds as Ethiopia gears up for national elections that, before the coronavirus pandemic, were planned for August.
Some critics accuse Abiy, who was appointed prime minister in 2018, of overstepping his mandate by selling off part of Ethio Telecom, a profitable state-owned firm.
\"If you were elected democratically on the agenda that you're going to be selling strategic assets, then you don't have to wait for elections,\" said Alemayehu Geda, an economist at Addis Ababa University. \"But this government didn't come via an election with an agenda of selling.\"
The worst outcome would be if the government were to simply \"cash in\" on reforms without guaranteeing service gets better, said German Ambassador Brita Wagener, though she stressed that so far officials seem committed to doing \"a thorough job\".
\"The IT sector needs a lot of improvement in the country. The internet has a lot of problems,\" Wagener said. \"We see that particularly now with all the virtual meetings we are having.\"
Abiy's team, for its part, seems determined to push forward with telecoms reforms even amid a state of emergency prompted by the coronavirus pandemic.
That's welcome news at Galani Coffee, an upscale cafe in Addis Ababa where customers routinely park themselves for hours to work on their laptops.
\"Whenever there is an internet outage they get frustrated,\" cafe supervisor Meheret Eyob told AFP before closing one recent evening, as the last tables settled their bills.
\"Most of them complain, and some of them don't ever come here again because of this.\"
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当互联网或太慢,客户网站上的努力下订单交付艾迪斯,Sisay电子商务的雇主,这意味着他没有关系。
其他时候,当电话网络堵塞,Sisay不能达到客户完成交付,他浪费宝贵的时间站在屋外,拨号徒劳无功。
Sisay是激动,经过多年的积累,改变似乎终于来到埃塞俄比亚阻碍电信业,世界上最后一个封闭的市场之一。
官员还计划出售Ethio电信40%的股份,他们希望此举将使公司更有效率。
“对于我们这样的企业,电信是至关重要的,这是我们面临的最困难的挑战,“Sisay告诉法新社在休息从他最近的一个下午。
“我听说许多国家相比,我们有一个更好的连接。我希望我们能改善当其他公司加入这个市场。”
电信业的重组是总理阿艾哈迈德的基石的经济改革议程,虽然有几个很大的未知数。
这包括外部公司需要多少钱进入市场和叉,确切地说,修订部门。
不过是“一个令人激动的时刻”,说交付艾迪斯创始人Feleg Tsegaye。
“我认为每个人都在科技现场一度被怀疑,当这是会发生什么?”
——“新增长领域”——埃塞俄比亚通信管理局监管机构,给了公司,直到6月22日提交意向书的执照。
潜在竞购者包括法国的橙色,肯尼亚的Safaricom和南非的MTN。
牌照的价值可能超过10亿美元,和公司也需要金融改善电信基础设施受到多年的投资不足。
分析师指出,许多公司认为成本是一个讨价还价,考虑到埃塞俄比亚的1.1亿人口,加上这一事实Ethio电信目前只有大约4400万用户。
“埃塞俄比亚显然代表了这个新的增长领域,任何运营商都想在一楼,“说丁Mbizule,惠誉分析师的解决方案。
“尽管我们保持埃塞俄比亚的巨大的潜力,对于任何球员进入这个市场,它不会便宜。”
——关闭移动货币——有一些担心外面公司的业务将是有限的。
上个月央行发布的指令允许非金融公司提供移动金融服务,但前提是他们在当地拥有。
,这可能是一个问题像Safaricom公司和橙色的地方移动钱他们的商业模式的核心。
此外,埃塞俄比亚发展以扩展互联网关闭期间,社会动荡和更无害的事件(如国家考试。
未来的最重要的事情之一将是政府保证外部公司他们会操作在一个“公平竞争”与Ethio电信,说Zemedeneh Negatu,美国主席费尔法克斯非洲基金。
“这是世界上最大的尚未开发的市场了,所以这些严重的球员都很兴奋埃塞俄比亚市场,“Zemedeneh说。
“但在埃塞俄比亚方面,我们必须确保套现。”
——“没有授权”?——也许不可避免的是,电信改革面临政治阻力而埃塞俄比亚正准备迎接全国大选,在冠状病毒大流行之前,计划在8月。
一些批评人士指责阿,在2018年被任命为总理,超越他的授权通过出售部分Ethio电信,一家盈利的国有企业。
“如果你当选民主议事日程,你要销售战略资产,然后你不必等待选举,“说马约Geda,亚的斯亚贝巴大学经济学家。“但这政府没有通过选举议程的销售。”
最坏的结果是如果政府只是“现金”改革而不保证服务变得更好,德国大使碧然德魏格纳说,虽然她强调说,到目前为止,官员们似乎致力于做“彻底的工作”。
“IT部门需要大量的改进。互联网有很多问题,”魏格纳说。“我们看到,尤其是我们现在所有的虚拟会议。”
阿的团队,就其本身而言,似乎决心推进电信改革即使在紧急状态引发的冠状病毒大流行。
在Galani咖啡,这是一个受乐动扑克欢迎的消息在亚的斯亚贝巴高档咖啡馆,顾客经常公园自己几个小时在他们的笔记本电脑上工作。
“只要有一个网络中断他们沮丧,”咖啡厅主管Meheret Eyob告诉法新社在结束之前最近的一个晚上,最后表结算账单。
“他们中的大多数人抱怨,他们中的一些人永远不要再次来这里,因为这个。”
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