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In<\/em>\"\" an interview with ET Now, GV Giri, Analyst, IIFL<\/a>, shares his views on the soft launch of 4G services by Reliance Jio. The expert also talks about the likely impact of Jio's full-fledged launch on telecom incumbents. Excerpts: <\/em>
\n
\nET Now: What are you views on the soft launch of Rel Jio's 4G service on Sunday? How do you see things shaping up from here on? Do you think that the move would give more muscle room to competitors to beef up, before the commercial launch? When do you expect the launch to happen?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>The commercial launch will probably happen in the third quarter of next calendar year. In terms of beefing up of competitors, Reliance Jio requires the handset market to be filled with 4G handsets to a reasonable extent, which is not the case now. Let us see how it moves forward. So far, it seems to be progressing rapidly. There will be some advantage to competitors because Jio launch now seems to be delayed by more than what people had expected. But that advantage would not be much.
\n
In the long run, all these things do not matter. Whether Jio and the other competitors are successful would really depends on the industry<\/a>'s health more than anything else. If you see the incumbents after a couple of decades in the business, their return on equities<\/a> (ROEs) have not been stellar. The government and the TRAI also seem to be taking a punitive stance against the telcos every now and then. So they are in a bad psychological space. The industry has to do well and that is really what will determine where Jio measures up and whether the competitors can take advantage of Jio's delay or not. These are small matters. The bigger issue really is the outlook for the industry.
\n
\nET Now: I just spoke to Himanshu Kapania of Idea Cellular<\/a>, where he sounded fairly confident about the outcome of the Jio's competition in the data space and the financial health of the company, given the spate of capex and the investments that it has had to make. Kapania is of view that the industry has been through such things in the past and he sees it to be no different case. Do you think that this time around, it is slightly different than earlier times?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>Clearly because amidst all the talk of a heavily-muscled competitor coming in, one must not forget that the overall law that circumscribes the health of any one competitor in the system is the fact that no company can have more than 25 per cent of the total spectrum in the market. So there will be about three or four companies with just about equal amount of raw material.
\n
\nYou might say that capital makes a difference and Reliance Jio is indeed well-capitalised. The company has poured in a lot of investments, but so have the others. Therefore in the long run, it is the service quality and the commitment to the business, and skills with which decisions are executed, are what will make the difference. I do not think things change much incrementally. The other issue to remember is that indeed Reliance Jio is coming in, but we have also seen three smaller companies making an attempt to merge and, therefore, consolidation is happening at the bottom end of the system. Both these things have be weighed simultaneously.
\n
\nET Now: In light of that, from investors' perspective, there are three options, there are three stocks<\/a> to play with ie.e Bharti Airtel<\/a>, Idea Cellular and 'comeback from the brink' kind of a player Reliance Communications<\/a>, (RCom). If you were to recommend a stock, which of these three would be and why? Let us assume that the investor is net neutral. He is not an institutional investor, who will not subscribe to RCom. What would be your best case investment in the telecom space currently?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>We have buy recommendations on Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Idea Cellular. Among them, Bharti is our top pick because it is better capitalised than Idea Cellular at least for the time being. Bharti is generating healthy cash flows from its Indian operations and it seems to have a good stock of spectrum, thanks to its performance in auctions in the last of couple of years.
\n
\nAs said, we also have a buy recommendation on Idea Cellular. Both these stocks have been beaten down to such an extent that we tend to look at the outlook for the stock in light of the stock price. While the outlook for the sector is slightly grim, stocks are reflecting that pessimism.
\n
\nET Now: How do you look at RCom's strategy?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>RCom is making all the right moves. This is actually the right thing they have done: Hunt out competitors, who are having spectrum but are not optimally utilized. The company is trying to get such assets under its own belt. But the biggest issue with RCom is how much its debt will be, when all this settles down. On that front also, tower and optic fibre deals and non-telecom moves such as selling of real estate<\/a> and other unrelated parts of the telecom business such as the global cloud exchange are steps in the right direction. We will need to see how it looks when everything settles down. At the moment my guess would be that even after doing many of these things, the debt on its books would quite be substantial.
\n
\n\n<\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":50352521,"title":"Overall telecom market can touch Rs 3.5 lakh cr in the next 5 years: Himanshu Kapania, MD, Idea Cellular","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/overall-telecom-market-can-touch-rs-3-5-lakh-cr-in-the-next-5-years-himanshu-kapania-md-idea-cellular\/50352521","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":50352538,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Expect Reliance Jio commercial launch by Q3CY16; Bharti a preferred pick: GV Giri, IIFL","synopsis":"Bharti is our top pick because it is better capitalised than Idea Cellular at least for the time being; it is also generating healthy cash flows, says Giri.","titleseo":"telecomnews\/expect-reliance-jio-commercial-launch-by-q3cy16-bharti-a-preferred-pick-gv-giri-iifl","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ET Now","artdate":"2015-12-28 14:34:25","lastupd":"2015-12-28 16:40:53","breadcrumbTags":["Airtel","industry","Bharti Airtel","real estate","stocks","equities","Idea Cellular","Reliance communications","IIFL"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/expect-reliance-jio-commercial-launch-by-q3cy16-bharti-a-preferred-pick-gv-giri-iifl"}}" data-authors="[" "]" data-category-name="" data-category_id="" data-date="2015-12-28" data-index="article_1">

期望依赖Jio Q3CY16商业发射;Bharti优先选择:IIFL GV Giri

Bharti是我们的首选,因为它是更好的资本主意细胞至少暂时;它还产生健康的现金流,吉里说。

  • 2015年12月28日更新是04:40点
在 现在采访等,问义理,分析师,IIFL,他的观点在软启动的4 g服务Jio的依赖。专家还谈到了可能带来的影响Jio对电信公司的全面启动。摘录:

等现在:你意见的软启动Rel星期天Jio的4 g服务吗?你如何看待事物形成从这里吗?你认为此举将使更多的肌肉空间竞争对手加强,商业发射前?您何时启动?

全球之声Giri:商业发射可能会发生在第三季度的下一个日历年。加强竞争对手而言,依赖Jio要求手机市场充满4 g手机在一个合理的程度上,这不是现在的情况。让我们看看它往前移动。到目前为止,似乎进展迅速。将会有一些优势的竞争对手,因为Jio发射现在似乎被推迟超过人们的预期。但这一优势不会太多。

从长远来看,所有这些都无关紧要。Jio和其他竞争对手是否成功将取决于行业的健康胜过一切。如果你看到后现有的几十年,他们的回报股票(鹿)没有恒星。政府和火车似乎也对电信公司每采取惩罚性措施。所以他们在一个糟糕的心理空间。这个行业已经做得很好,就是将确定Jio措施以及竞争对手是否可以利用Jio的延迟。这些都是小问题。更大的问题是这个行业的前景。

等现在:我只是说Himanshu Kapania知道细胞,他听起来相当有信心Jio竞争的结果在数据空间和公司的财务状况,考虑到大量的资本支出和投资,这不得不使。Kapania来看,该行业在过去曾经历过这样的事情,他认为这是没有什么不同。你认为这一次,它比早些时候稍微不同的吗?

全球之声Giri:显然因为在所有的肌肉竞争者进入,一个不能忘记这个限制的健康的整个法律系统中任何一个竞争对手的是,没有一家公司可以有超过25%的总频谱市场。所以会有三个或四个公司几乎相同数量的原材料。

你可能会说,资本的区别和依赖Jio确实是资本充足。公司倒了大量的投资,但别人也有。因此从长远来看,它是服务质量和业务的承诺,和技能决定执行,就是将不同。我不认为事情逐步改变太多。另一个问题,实际上依赖Jio进来,但是我们也看到了三个小公司试图合并,因此,整合发生在底部的系统。这些事情都是同时重。

外星人:光,从投资者的角度来看,有三个选项,有三个股票玩ie.eBharti Airtel,细胞和回归从边缘球员信实电信(RCom)。如果你推荐股票,这三个会,为什么?让我们假设投资者净是中立的。他不是一个机构投资者,他们不会RCom的订阅。什么是你最好的投资目前在电信领域?

全球之声Giri:我们有买Bharti建议附近的旅馆细胞和想法。其中,Bharti是我们的首选,因为它是资本比细胞至少暂时的想法。Bharti从其印度业务生成健康的现金流,它似乎有一个很好的股票的频谱,由于其性能在拍卖的最后几年。

说,我们也有一个推荐细胞。这两个股市一直打压到了这样一种程度,我们倾向于看股票的股价前景。虽然该行业的前景是有点严峻,股票是悲观主义的反映。

等:你如何看待信实电信的战略?

全球之声Giri:信实电信让所有正确的动作。这是他们做了正确的事情:找出竞争对手,谁有频谱但并非最优利用。公司想让这些资产以自己的腰带。但信实电信最大的问题是有多少债务,当所有这些定居下来。在这方面,塔和光纤协议和non-telecom销售等房地产和其他不相关的部分电信业务全球云交换等步骤在正确的方向上。我们需要看看它看起来当一切安定下来。目前我的猜测是,即使在做这些事之后,债务在其书会相当可观。

  • 发布于2015年12月28日02:34点坚持
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  • 期望依赖Jio Q3CY16商业发射;Bharti优先选择:IIFL GV Giri
In<\/em>\"\" an interview with ET Now, GV Giri, Analyst, IIFL<\/a>, shares his views on the soft launch of 4G services by Reliance Jio. The expert also talks about the likely impact of Jio's full-fledged launch on telecom incumbents. Excerpts: <\/em>
\n
\nET Now: What are you views on the soft launch of Rel Jio's 4G service on Sunday? How do you see things shaping up from here on? Do you think that the move would give more muscle room to competitors to beef up, before the commercial launch? When do you expect the launch to happen?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>The commercial launch will probably happen in the third quarter of next calendar year. In terms of beefing up of competitors, Reliance Jio requires the handset market to be filled with 4G handsets to a reasonable extent, which is not the case now. Let us see how it moves forward. So far, it seems to be progressing rapidly. There will be some advantage to competitors because Jio launch now seems to be delayed by more than what people had expected. But that advantage would not be much.
\n
In the long run, all these things do not matter. Whether Jio and the other competitors are successful would really depends on the industry<\/a>'s health more than anything else. If you see the incumbents after a couple of decades in the business, their return on equities<\/a> (ROEs) have not been stellar. The government and the TRAI also seem to be taking a punitive stance against the telcos every now and then. So they are in a bad psychological space. The industry has to do well and that is really what will determine where Jio measures up and whether the competitors can take advantage of Jio's delay or not. These are small matters. The bigger issue really is the outlook for the industry.
\n
\nET Now: I just spoke to Himanshu Kapania of Idea Cellular<\/a>, where he sounded fairly confident about the outcome of the Jio's competition in the data space and the financial health of the company, given the spate of capex and the investments that it has had to make. Kapania is of view that the industry has been through such things in the past and he sees it to be no different case. Do you think that this time around, it is slightly different than earlier times?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>Clearly because amidst all the talk of a heavily-muscled competitor coming in, one must not forget that the overall law that circumscribes the health of any one competitor in the system is the fact that no company can have more than 25 per cent of the total spectrum in the market. So there will be about three or four companies with just about equal amount of raw material.
\n
\nYou might say that capital makes a difference and Reliance Jio is indeed well-capitalised. The company has poured in a lot of investments, but so have the others. Therefore in the long run, it is the service quality and the commitment to the business, and skills with which decisions are executed, are what will make the difference. I do not think things change much incrementally. The other issue to remember is that indeed Reliance Jio is coming in, but we have also seen three smaller companies making an attempt to merge and, therefore, consolidation is happening at the bottom end of the system. Both these things have be weighed simultaneously.
\n
\nET Now: In light of that, from investors' perspective, there are three options, there are three stocks<\/a> to play with ie.e Bharti Airtel<\/a>, Idea Cellular and 'comeback from the brink' kind of a player Reliance Communications<\/a>, (RCom). If you were to recommend a stock, which of these three would be and why? Let us assume that the investor is net neutral. He is not an institutional investor, who will not subscribe to RCom. What would be your best case investment in the telecom space currently?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>We have buy recommendations on Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Idea Cellular. Among them, Bharti is our top pick because it is better capitalised than Idea Cellular at least for the time being. Bharti is generating healthy cash flows from its Indian operations and it seems to have a good stock of spectrum, thanks to its performance in auctions in the last of couple of years.
\n
\nAs said, we also have a buy recommendation on Idea Cellular. Both these stocks have been beaten down to such an extent that we tend to look at the outlook for the stock in light of the stock price. While the outlook for the sector is slightly grim, stocks are reflecting that pessimism.
\n
\nET Now: How do you look at RCom's strategy?<\/strong>
\n
\nGV Giri: <\/strong>RCom is making all the right moves. This is actually the right thing they have done: Hunt out competitors, who are having spectrum but are not optimally utilized. The company is trying to get such assets under its own belt. But the biggest issue with RCom is how much its debt will be, when all this settles down. On that front also, tower and optic fibre deals and non-telecom moves such as selling of real estate<\/a> and other unrelated parts of the telecom business such as the global cloud exchange are steps in the right direction. We will need to see how it looks when everything settles down. At the moment my guess would be that even after doing many of these things, the debt on its books would quite be substantial.
\n
\n\n<\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":50352521,"title":"Overall telecom market can touch Rs 3.5 lakh cr in the next 5 years: Himanshu Kapania, MD, Idea Cellular","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/overall-telecom-market-can-touch-rs-3-5-lakh-cr-in-the-next-5-years-himanshu-kapania-md-idea-cellular\/50352521","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":50352538,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Expect Reliance Jio commercial launch by Q3CY16; Bharti a preferred pick: GV Giri, IIFL","synopsis":"Bharti is our top pick because it is better capitalised than Idea Cellular at least for the time being; it is also generating healthy cash flows, says Giri.","titleseo":"telecomnews\/expect-reliance-jio-commercial-launch-by-q3cy16-bharti-a-preferred-pick-gv-giri-iifl","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ET Now","artdate":"2015-12-28 14:34:25","lastupd":"2015-12-28 16:40:53","breadcrumbTags":["Airtel","industry","Bharti Airtel","real estate","stocks","equities","Idea Cellular","Reliance communications","IIFL"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/expect-reliance-jio-commercial-launch-by-q3cy16-bharti-a-preferred-pick-gv-giri-iifl"}}" data-news_link="//www.iser-br.com/news/expect-reliance-jio-commercial-launch-by-q3cy16-bharti-a-preferred-pick-gv-giri-iifl/50352538">