MUMBAI: The Aditya Birla Group<\/a> and Vodafone Group Plc<\/a> are alarmed at the sharp erosion in their telecom JV Vodafone Idea<\/a>’s user base<\/a>, with the carrier having lost about 20 million subscribers<\/a> to competition in the two quarters to March, top officials familiar with the matter say. Analysts say that the company may have lost a further 15 million subscribers for the quarter ended June 30. 孟买:Aditya Birla组和沃达丰集团恐慌的大幅侵蚀他们的电信企业沃达丰的想法的用户群,承运人有损失了约2000万人用户竞争在3月的两个季度,高层知情人士说。分析人士说,该公司可能已经失去了1500万订户截至6月30日的季度。 MUMBAI: The Aditya Birla Group<\/a> and Vodafone Group Plc<\/a> are alarmed at the sharp erosion in their telecom JV Vodafone Idea<\/a>’s user base<\/a>, with the carrier having lost about 20 million subscribers<\/a> to competition in the two quarters to March, top officials familiar with the matter say. Analysts say that the company may have lost a further 15 million subscribers for the quarter ended June 30.
The falling numbers have prompted discussions among the promoters around the future of the company, even if the telco was to be allowed by the Supreme Court to pay its adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues over 20 years, said one of the officials. That is because a sharp fall in the number of subscribers would have to be reversed to secure the company's future. That might need capital infusion by the promoters or other strategic investors and it's unclear if this will happen.
“The AGR relief is a separate issue and unconnected with the dim business prospects we face. The business is hanging by a thread,\" said another official. “Already the competitors are displaying their heft in the market place”.
Axis Capital expects loss-making Vodafone Idea to have lost another 15 million users in the April-June period, a period when Jio is expected to have added around 6 million with Airtel maintaining or increasing its subscriber base a tad. Analysts say under investment in network and aggressive rivals in Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are weaning away subscribers from Vodafone Idea.
Since the merger in August 2018 when it was the runaway subscriber market leader with 408 million users, the telco has lost 117 million subscribers to close the March quarter with 291 million, compared with 388 million for Jio and 284 million for Airtel. The telecom regulator's data however puts Vodafone Idea below even Airtel's subscriber numbers.
To be sure, if Vodafone Idea were allowed to pay AGR over a 20-year time period - as proposed by the government - it will be part of a three-private player telecom market serving over a billion subscribers, with tariffs and average revenue per user (ARPU) on the rise, backed by surging data consumption.
Analysts however say, even with that, the telco would need a significant capital infusion to be competitive in the market.
But the promoters may not be inclined to infuse any more capital, with officials saying that the Aditya Birla Group has other financial challenges to deal with and cannot spare further investments for the bleeding company.
Vodafone Group, on its part, has been paying up parts of the roughly Rs8,000 crore that the two JV partners had agreed to, as per a contingent liability mechanism (CLM). As per that agreement, the UK-based telecom major - which needs to pay on set dates - is set to inject another EUR35 million (Rs285 crore) by September, after putting in $200 million in April. But it has previously said it won’t infuse any fresh equity. The two partners though had infused about Rs18,000 crore in the telco as part of a Rs25,000-crore rights issue in April 2019.
Also, there have been no progress on any talks for fresh infusion of funds from external investors, the official added. Late May, Financial Times reported that Google was exploring an investment in Vodafone Idea, while there has also been unconfirmed speculation about similar interest from Amazon.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
![](\"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>Vodafone Idea Q4 review: Subscriber loss a concern; favourable AGR ruling holds the key<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>Airtel, Vodafone Idea Q1 likely dragged by Covid recharge blues; lower debt, user adds to help Jio<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
The Birla group, the Vodafone Group and Vodafone Idea declined to comment to ET’s specific queries. The telco’s stock ended 3.3% lower at Rs9.26 on the BSE Wednesday.
The telco last week posted a loss of Rs 11,643.5 crore for the fiscal fourth quarter, its seventh successive three-month period in the red, hurt by loss of subscribers, high finance costs and a one-time charge related mainly to its statutory dues, despite full impact of the December tariff hikes. Annual loss in FY20 stood at Rs 73,878 crore, the highest ever by any Indian firm.
In the 4QFY20 results release, the carrier, which has to pay Rs 51,400 crore more in AGR dues, again warned of continued threat to its viability unless the Supreme Court allows it to pay in instalments over several years, besides being able to renegotiate repayment terms with its lenders. The telco has backed a government proposal to be allowed to pay AGR dues over 20 years.
“Vodafone idea is struggling financially amid shrinking subscriber base, low cash generation and limited financial flexibility to invest in capex…The company is unlikely to survive in the absence of large equity injection,” Nitin Soni, senior director, corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings. “…We believe that the company would have lost more subscribers had there been no coronavirus led lockdown as that prevented active churn to other networks.”
Brokerage Motilal Oswal added that subscriber losses, especially in the data market and weakening competitive position was offsetting the positive impact of the price hikes “…11% ARPU (average revenue per user) increase translated into just 6% revenue growth (in 4QFY20)\".
Credit Suisse added that the telco’s Rs101 billion capex in FY20 is half of Bharti Airtel's India (ex-tower) capex. “…we believe that such prolonged under-investment would result in further market share loss for VIL in longer run”. The operator is also capturing lesser 4G<\/a> competitors and in the fourth quarter, added 1.4 million only compared to average net adds of 6.9 million in its previous two quarters.
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启动子之间的数字下降促使讨论公司的未来,即使电信被最高法院允许支付其调整后的总收益(AGR)会费20多年,一位官员表示。这是因为数量的急剧下降订阅者必须扭转,以确保公司的未来。发起人或其他可能需要注资的战略投资者,目前尚不清楚这是否会发生。
轴资本预计亏损沃达丰的想法失去了另一个1500万用户在4 - 6月期间,一个时期Jio预计将增加了约600万Airtel维持或增加其用户基础有点。分析人士说,在网络和咄咄逼人的竞争对手投资依赖Jio和Bharti Airtel订户断掉沃达丰的想法。
自2018年8月合并时的用户市场领导者拥有4.08亿用户,电信已经失去了1.17亿用户关闭与2.91亿年第一季度,Jio与3.88亿年相比,2.84亿年的旅馆。然而使沃达丰电信监管机构的数据下面的想法甚至Airtel的用户数量。
可以肯定的是,如果允许沃达丰的想法支付AGR在20年时间——政府——它将提出的三家私人的一部分球员电信市场服务超过十亿用户,关税和每用户平均收入(ARPU)在上升,激增的数据支持的消费。
然而分析家说,即便如此,电信将需要很大的资金注入市场的竞争力。
但发起人不得倾向于注入更多资本,官员们说Aditya Birla集团其他金融挑战来处理,不能闲置出血公司进一步投资。
沃达丰集团的一部分,已经支付了部分大致Rs8,000卢比的两个合资伙伴已同意,根据或有负债机制(CLM)。根据该协议,英国电信主要——需要支付设置日期——将注入另一个EUR35百万(Rs285卢比),9月后4月投入2亿美元。但它曾表示,它不会注入任何新股本。两个合作伙伴虽然已注入Rs18,000卢比在电信2019年4月Rs25,000-crore配股的一部分。
此外,没有任何谈判进展新鲜注入外部投资者的资金,这位官员补充道。5月底,《金融时报》报道,谷歌是探索投资沃达丰的想法,虽然也被未经证实的猜测类似亚马逊的兴趣。
博拉集团沃达丰集团和沃达丰的想法等的具体查询拒绝置评。电信的股价收低3.3%周三在Rs9.26疯牛病。
电信上周公布亏损11643。5卢比的第四财季,第七个连续三个月红,受到损失的用户,融资成本高,一次性收取相关的主要法定费,尽管12月关税上涨的全面影响。FY20年度亏损73878卢比,有史以来最高的印度公司。
4 qfy20结果发布,航空公司必须支付51400卢比的AGR会费,再次警告说,持续威胁其生存能力,除非最高法院允许支付分期付款在过去的几年里,除了能够与债权人协商还款条款。电信支持政府的提议被允许支付AGR费超过20年。
“沃达丰想法是经济困难在萎缩的用户基础,低现金生成能力和有限的投资资本支出的财务灵活性…公司是不可能生存在没有大量注资,“Nitin索尼,高级主管、企业评级惠誉评级(Fitch ratings)。“…我们相信公司会失去更多的用户如果没有冠状病毒导致封锁阻止积极生产其他网络。”
经纪Motilal Oswal说,用户损失,特别是在数据市场和竞争地位弱化抵消价格上涨的积极影响”…ARPU(每用户平均收入)增长11%转化为收入增长仅为6%(在4 qfy20)”。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)补充说,电信的Rs101十亿在印度Bharti Airtel FY20是一半的资本支出(ex-tower)资本支出。“…我们相信这样的长期投资不足将导致进一步的市场份额损失维尔在长远来看”。操作员也捕捉较小4 g竞争对手在第四季度,只增加了140万个相比它的前两个季度的平均净增加了690万。
The falling numbers have prompted discussions among the promoters around the future of the company, even if the telco was to be allowed by the Supreme Court to pay its adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues over 20 years, said one of the officials. That is because a sharp fall in the number of subscribers would have to be reversed to secure the company's future. That might need capital infusion by the promoters or other strategic investors and it's unclear if this will happen.
“The AGR relief is a separate issue and unconnected with the dim business prospects we face. The business is hanging by a thread,\" said another official. “Already the competitors are displaying their heft in the market place”.
Axis Capital expects loss-making Vodafone Idea to have lost another 15 million users in the April-June period, a period when Jio is expected to have added around 6 million with Airtel maintaining or increasing its subscriber base a tad. Analysts say under investment in network and aggressive rivals in Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are weaning away subscribers from Vodafone Idea.
Since the merger in August 2018 when it was the runaway subscriber market leader with 408 million users, the telco has lost 117 million subscribers to close the March quarter with 291 million, compared with 388 million for Jio and 284 million for Airtel. The telecom regulator's data however puts Vodafone Idea below even Airtel's subscriber numbers.
To be sure, if Vodafone Idea were allowed to pay AGR over a 20-year time period - as proposed by the government - it will be part of a three-private player telecom market serving over a billion subscribers, with tariffs and average revenue per user (ARPU) on the rise, backed by surging data consumption.
Analysts however say, even with that, the telco would need a significant capital infusion to be competitive in the market.
But the promoters may not be inclined to infuse any more capital, with officials saying that the Aditya Birla Group has other financial challenges to deal with and cannot spare further investments for the bleeding company.
Vodafone Group, on its part, has been paying up parts of the roughly Rs8,000 crore that the two JV partners had agreed to, as per a contingent liability mechanism (CLM). As per that agreement, the UK-based telecom major - which needs to pay on set dates - is set to inject another EUR35 million (Rs285 crore) by September, after putting in $200 million in April. But it has previously said it won’t infuse any fresh equity. The two partners though had infused about Rs18,000 crore in the telco as part of a Rs25,000-crore rights issue in April 2019.
Also, there have been no progress on any talks for fresh infusion of funds from external investors, the official added. Late May, Financial Times reported that Google was exploring an investment in Vodafone Idea, while there has also been unconfirmed speculation about similar interest from Amazon.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
<\/a><\/figure>Vodafone Idea Q4 review: Subscriber loss a concern; favourable AGR ruling holds the key<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>Airtel, Vodafone Idea Q1 likely dragged by Covid recharge blues; lower debt, user adds to help Jio<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
The Birla group, the Vodafone Group and Vodafone Idea declined to comment to ET’s specific queries. The telco’s stock ended 3.3% lower at Rs9.26 on the BSE Wednesday.
The telco last week posted a loss of Rs 11,643.5 crore for the fiscal fourth quarter, its seventh successive three-month period in the red, hurt by loss of subscribers, high finance costs and a one-time charge related mainly to its statutory dues, despite full impact of the December tariff hikes. Annual loss in FY20 stood at Rs 73,878 crore, the highest ever by any Indian firm.
In the 4QFY20 results release, the carrier, which has to pay Rs 51,400 crore more in AGR dues, again warned of continued threat to its viability unless the Supreme Court allows it to pay in instalments over several years, besides being able to renegotiate repayment terms with its lenders. The telco has backed a government proposal to be allowed to pay AGR dues over 20 years.
“Vodafone idea is struggling financially amid shrinking subscriber base, low cash generation and limited financial flexibility to invest in capex…The company is unlikely to survive in the absence of large equity injection,” Nitin Soni, senior director, corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings. “…We believe that the company would have lost more subscribers had there been no coronavirus led lockdown as that prevented active churn to other networks.”
Brokerage Motilal Oswal added that subscriber losses, especially in the data market and weakening competitive position was offsetting the positive impact of the price hikes “…11% ARPU (average revenue per user) increase translated into just 6% revenue growth (in 4QFY20)\".
Credit Suisse added that the telco’s Rs101 billion capex in FY20 is half of Bharti Airtel's India (ex-tower) capex. “…we believe that such prolonged under-investment would result in further market share loss for VIL in longer run”. The operator is also capturing lesser 4G<\/a> competitors and in the fourth quarter, added 1.4 million only compared to average net adds of 6.9 million in its previous two quarters.
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