Kolkata: India's much-awaited 5G<\/a> spectrum sale could be delayed if the government focuses on a 4G<\/a> auction in 2021, said Fitch Ratings<\/a>, also predicting limited participation from older carriers, Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Vodafone Idea<\/a> as 5G spectrum pricing remains exorbitant coupled with the lack of relevant use cases. 全球评级机构还预计“有限参与巴蒂电信和沃达丰的想法(Vi) 5 g拍卖,鉴于储备价格高企(监管机构设定的)和有限的5 g用例”。 加尔各答,印度的期待已久的5克频谱出售可以推迟如果政府关注4 g2021年拍卖,说惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)旧的航母,还预测有限的参与,Bharti Airtel和沃达丰的想法5 g频谱定价仍然过高加上缺乏相关的用例。
“5G spectrum auctions could be delayed if the government prioritises 4G auctions in 2021 to allow telcos to renew spectrum in 800\/900 Mhz bands in certain states,” Fitch said in a note Monday.
The global ratings agency also foresees “limited participation by Bharti and Vodafone Idea (Vi) in the 5G auction<\/a>, given the high reserve prices (set by the regulator) and limited 5G use cases”.
Last week, Airtel chief executive Gopal said the telco would give 5G airwaves a miss if they are auctioned next year as the current reserve prices set by the sector regulator are unaffordable.
The government plans to hold a 4G airwaves sale in early-2021, which may be followed by a sale of 5G airwaves later in the year, but is yet to clear the air on the timing of the 5G spectrum sale or the bands on offer.
Fitch also expects Reliance Jio<\/a> and Bharti Airtel to gain revenue share at the expense of loss-making Vi, and to jointly dominate 75%- 80% of the telecom market, from around 70% now.
It estimates that Vi could lose 50-to-70 million subscribers in the next 12 months, after losing about 155 million subscribers in the last nine quarters. “Jio could pick-up over half of Vi’s subscriber losses, with the balance going to Bharti.”
Analysts note that though Vi executed well on the cost-cutting front in the just-ended September quarter, its heavy subscriber losses – 8 million in the fiscal second quarter -- continue to erode revenues and hurt profitability. The telco’s user base in the quarter ended September was down at 271 million from around 408 million at the time of the merger in August 2018.
Fitch estimates Vi’s net leverage is likely to deteriorate substantially as a result of the Supreme Court’s verdict requiring the telco to pay its AGR dues of $8.9 billion. “Its cash balance at end-June 2020 of $470 million already falls below its short-term debt maturities and guarantees of $3.6 billion,” the global ratings agency said.
By contrast, Fitch expects Bharti and Jio’s revenues to rise by around 10%-15%, following strong growth expectations in 2020 of over 30%. “Ebitda margins may widen by 100-200 basis points (bps) to 37% and 44% for Bharti and Jio, respectively, on higher wireless tariffs and fixed-broadband expansion,” it added.
The ratings agency also estimates “Airtel’s (funds from operation FFO) net leverage to be around 2.2x-2.4x,” below the downgrade trigger of 2.5x, supported by sustained higher wireless tariffs amid easing price competition.
Last week, Airtel narrowed its consolidated net loss to Rs 763 crore in the second quarter, posting record consolidated revenue boosted by continued recovery of its India operations. Jio’s net profit too nearly trebled year-on-year in the July-September period, helped by higher mobile recharge volumes as lockdown curbs were eased, lower finance costs and continuing customer additions.
Though Vi narrowed net loss to Rs 7,203.4 crore in the September quarter, its continued subscriber losses hit revenue growth and the telco yet again flagged risks around its viability.
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惠誉说,5 g拍卖可能进一步推迟明年如果政府关注4 g出售
“5 g频谱拍卖可能被推迟,如果政府在2021年获得了4 g拍卖允许电信公司更新谱在800/900 Mhz频段在某些州,”惠誉周一在一份报告中说。
全球评级机构还预计“有限参与巴蒂电信和沃达丰(Vi)的想法5 g拍卖,考虑到高储备价格(监管机构设定的)和有限的5 g”用例。
政府计划在2021年初举行4 g无线电波销售,这可能是紧随其后的是出售5 g电波在今年晚些时候,但尚未明确空气5 g频谱拍卖的时机或乐队。
惠誉还预计依赖Jio和Bharti Airtel获得收入亏损Vi的份额,并共同主导电信市场的75% - 80%,从目前的70%左右。
估计Vi可能失去50 - 70用户在未来12个月内,在过去九个季度亏损约1.55亿用户。“Jio可能上升超过一半的六世的用户损失,Bharti平衡。”
分析师指出,尽管六世处死也在削减成本方面刚刚公布的季度,沉重的用户损失- 800万——继续侵蚀的第二财季收入和盈利能力受到伤害。电信的用户群,在截至9月份的季度是在2.71亿年从4.08亿年2018年8月时的合并。
惠誉估计六世的净杠杆率可能大幅恶化是由于最高法院的判决要求电信支付其AGR费89亿美元。”其4.7亿美元的现金余额在2020年6月底已经低于36亿美元的短期债务期限和担保,“全球评级机构说。
相比之下,惠誉预计Bharti Jio的收入上升-15%,10%左右后强劲增长预期在2020年超过30%。“Ebitda利润率可能会扩大到100 - 200个基点(bps)为巴蒂电信和Jio 37%和44%,分别在高关税和宽带无线扩张,”它补充道。
评级机构还估计“Airtel(资金操作基于来自营运资金流量的净杠杆率约2.2 - 2.4 x,“降级引发的2.5倍以下,持续支持更高的无线关税在缓和价格竞争。
上周,Airtel缩小其合并净亏损763卢比,第二季度发布记录合并收入得益于其印度业务的持续复苏。Jio的净利润同比增长了近两倍,当季得益于更高的移动充电量锁定限制放宽,降低融资成本和持续的客户增加。
尽管Vi缩小净亏损7203。4卢比,9月季度继续用户损失收入增长和电信再次标记在其生存能力的风险。
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Kolkata: India's much-awaited 5G<\/a> spectrum sale could be delayed if the government focuses on a 4G<\/a> auction in 2021, said Fitch Ratings<\/a>, also predicting limited participation from older carriers, Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Vodafone Idea<\/a> as 5G spectrum pricing remains exorbitant coupled with the lack of relevant use cases.
“5G spectrum auctions could be delayed if the government prioritises 4G auctions in 2021 to allow telcos to renew spectrum in 800\/900 Mhz bands in certain states,” Fitch said in a note Monday.
The global ratings agency also foresees “limited participation by Bharti and Vodafone Idea (Vi) in the 5G auction<\/a>, given the high reserve prices (set by the regulator) and limited 5G use cases”.
Last week, Airtel chief executive Gopal said the telco would give 5G airwaves a miss if they are auctioned next year as the current reserve prices set by the sector regulator are unaffordable.
The government plans to hold a 4G airwaves sale in early-2021, which may be followed by a sale of 5G airwaves later in the year, but is yet to clear the air on the timing of the 5G spectrum sale or the bands on offer.
Fitch also expects Reliance Jio<\/a> and Bharti Airtel to gain revenue share at the expense of loss-making Vi, and to jointly dominate 75%- 80% of the telecom market, from around 70% now.
It estimates that Vi could lose 50-to-70 million subscribers in the next 12 months, after losing about 155 million subscribers in the last nine quarters. “Jio could pick-up over half of Vi’s subscriber losses, with the balance going to Bharti.”
Analysts note that though Vi executed well on the cost-cutting front in the just-ended September quarter, its heavy subscriber losses – 8 million in the fiscal second quarter -- continue to erode revenues and hurt profitability. The telco’s user base in the quarter ended September was down at 271 million from around 408 million at the time of the merger in August 2018.
Fitch estimates Vi’s net leverage is likely to deteriorate substantially as a result of the Supreme Court’s verdict requiring the telco to pay its AGR dues of $8.9 billion. “Its cash balance at end-June 2020 of $470 million already falls below its short-term debt maturities and guarantees of $3.6 billion,” the global ratings agency said.
By contrast, Fitch expects Bharti and Jio’s revenues to rise by around 10%-15%, following strong growth expectations in 2020 of over 30%. “Ebitda margins may widen by 100-200 basis points (bps) to 37% and 44% for Bharti and Jio, respectively, on higher wireless tariffs and fixed-broadband expansion,” it added.
The ratings agency also estimates “Airtel’s (funds from operation FFO) net leverage to be around 2.2x-2.4x,” below the downgrade trigger of 2.5x, supported by sustained higher wireless tariffs amid easing price competition.
Last week, Airtel narrowed its consolidated net loss to Rs 763 crore in the second quarter, posting record consolidated revenue boosted by continued recovery of its India operations. Jio’s net profit too nearly trebled year-on-year in the July-September period, helped by higher mobile recharge volumes as lockdown curbs were eased, lower finance costs and continuing customer additions.
Though Vi narrowed net loss to Rs 7,203.4 crore in the September quarter, its continued subscriber losses hit revenue growth and the telco yet again flagged risks around its viability.
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