Mumbai: Towards the end of Reliance Industries<\/a>’ FY19-20 earnings presentation last week, an interesting information nugget popped up. In the last 10 years, three global technology giants – Amazon, Apple and Microsoft have each notched up trillion dollar market caps while all S&P energy companies put together are not worth more than $582 billion. These asset light technology companies have created more value than legacy 孟买:末信实工业公司“FY19-20收益上周表示,金块突然出现一个有趣的信息。在过去十年,三个全球科技巨头——亚马逊、苹果和微软都创下了万亿美元市值虽然所有标普能源公司放在一起不是价值超过5820亿美元。这些资产光比传统技术公司创造了更多的价值 Mumbai: Towards the end of Reliance Industries<\/a>’ FY19-20 earnings presentation last week, an interesting information nugget popped up. In the last 10 years, three global technology giants – Amazon, Apple and Microsoft have each notched up trillion dollar market caps while all S&P energy companies put together are not worth more than $582 billion. These asset light technology companies have created more value than legacy
businesses and investors have lapped them up.
There is a reason why this data<\/a> point finds a place in the presentation of a predominantly energy and petrochem company. There was a time when RIL<\/a> and its founder Dhirubhai Ambani wanted to emulate the exploits of global energy super giants like Exxon and Royal Dutch\/Shell and RIL’s own journey from a small textile firm to a global energy and petchem major is testimony to that.
But today, as tastes, preferences and habits change, data<\/a> is the new oil, and digital technology the new superhighway to trillion-dollar success. Mukesh Ambani, Dhirubhai’s eldest son, clearly wants the same story to play out in his business empire.
Facebook<\/a>’s $5.7 bln investment two weeks back and Silver Lake Partners<\/a>’ 1.15% stake buy for Rs 5655.7 crore on Monday have created third party valuation benchmarking ahead of the proposed $100 billion mega listing of Reliance Jio a few years down the line. More importantly, it underpins the pivot away from hydrocarbons and energy towards new economy.
As the world battles a pandemic, oil demand will remain lukewarm for months and a sector that is already battling refining overcapacity will see muted recovery at best. This will result in RIL’s non-oil income going up and the shift towards technology getting more pronounced.
A few months back, Bernstein Research described RIL as India’s answer to Exxon, AT&T and Amazon all rolled into one. Its clearly becoming the other way round.
OILING THE NEW DATA
<\/strong>
Based on Monday’s announcement, Silver Lake has valued Jio at $65 billion excluding $3.3 billion of debt. That
is at a 12.5% premium to the value implied by the Facebook<\/a> investment, signed just two weeks back. So on the back of this benchmarking, Jio is single handedly contributing 53% of RIL’s total market capitalisation of $121 billion. Reliance will own 90% of the business once both these deals get consummated.
In retail, no external investor has logged in yet, even though speculation of dialogues with Amazon and Google<\/a> keeps surfacing time and again. RIL owns 94.4% of the business. Last December’s share swap scheme for the unlisted Reliance Retail<\/a>’s shareholders did offer a sneak peek at the valuations, which came to about ₹2.5 lakh crore ($35 billion taking rupee at₹70 levels to the dollar). At current levels, it would come to $33 billion.
Most foreign and domestic brokerages attribute the $30-40 billion to the retail business while calculating the sum of the parts valuation. This includes debt and is based on the average multiple of the listed universe of home grown retail companies like Trent, Avenue Supermarts (D-Mart), Future Retail among others.
The consumer pieces, therefore, cumulatively are contributing at least $90-95 billion or around 78% of the market capitalisation, if not more.
The consumer pieces therefore cumulatively is contributing at least $95 billion or 78% of the market capitalisation, if not more.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
![](\"\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>After Facebook deal, Jio Platforms gets Rs 5,655.75 crore investment from Silver Lake<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>Jio-Silver Lake deal to help reposition RIL as consumer tech company: Analysts<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
CONSUMER IS KING AND COUNTER CYCLICAL
<\/strong>
Even if one looks at another key data point – EBITDA, its clear from where the incremental growth is coming from. The share of the consumer business (telecom and retail) has been consistently growing when compared with its historical core operations. They constituted 36% of consolidated operating profit in the March 2020 quarter compared with 17% beginning of FY19, RIL presentation shows.
The profit contribution of the consumer facing segment can be gauged from the fact that operating profit of the digital services is just Rs 162 crore lower than refining segment in March 2020 quarter.
Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail<\/a> are market leaders and the fastest growing companies in their respective fields. According to estimates by CLSA<\/a>, telecom and retail business will constitute 54% of RIL’s consolidated EBITDA in FY22 compared with 36% in FY20.
Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail are market leaders and the fastest growing companies in their respective fields. According to estimates by CLSA<\/a>, telecom and retail business will constitute 54% of RIL’s consolidated Ebitda in FY22, compared with 36% in FY20.
Morgan Stanley, bankers to Reliance for the two tech deals, estimated that FY2019 EBITDA from oil and gas (including India upstream and US shale) and petrochemicals was Rs 623 billion or Rs 62,300 crore ($8.2 billion at current rupee rate) while Rs 21,300 crore ($2.81 billion) was the EBITDA generated from Jio and retail. Keeping current oil industry<\/a> trends in mind, these numbers in FY20 are estimated to be $7.46 billion and $4.1 billion respectively while in FY22, they are pegged at $10.2 bn and $7.85 billion. The company’s intent is to make it 50:50 by FY22.
However, it needs to be kept in mind that the rupee has appreciated close to 7% against the dollar in last 5 months and that also would play its part in impacting the financials of an export centric business-like
refining.
It’s evident that worldwide, refining and petchem demand environment has materially worsened and the sharp crude price fall is detrimental for Reliance. Singapore gross refining margins (GRMs) -- a key indicator for the region -- are at a 15 year low as global petchem companies cut down on operations, shut down old plants or advance maintenance. This if prolonged, might force Aramco to reassess its deal with Reliance, or the deal maths, even at the cost of access to a high growth market like India. In comparison, most would conservatively put a 15-25% hike in ARPU for Jio over the next two years.
The storied House of Tatas often gets portrayed as a software-to-salt conglomerate. But while the $84 billion TCS remains the undisputed flagship for India’s largest and most diversified business group, contributing 75% of the entire group’s profit, the definition of Reliance’s core or mainstay has undergone a paradigm shift – something very few corporations of this heft have managed globally. Refining crude is fast giving way to refining data as Ambani braces to take on Amazon’s Jeff Bezos in the multi-billion dollar battle for the Indian consumer.
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企业和投资者也容易接受。
有一个原因数据找到一个地方演讲的主要能源和石化企业公司。有一段时间瑞来斯及其创始人迪路拜·安巴尼想模仿全球能源的利用超级巨头埃克森美孚和皇家荷兰/壳牌和瑞来斯的旅程从一个小型纺织公司全球能源和petchem主要是证明。
脸谱网的5.7美元左右投资两周回来Silver Lake Partners周一的1.15%的股份买5655.7卢比已经创建了第三方估值基准测试之前提议的1000亿美元的大型上市依赖Jio几年。更重要的是,它支撑主远离碳氢化合物对新经济和能源。
作为世界大流行的战役中,石油需求将保持不冷不热的好几个月,已经与炼油产能过剩的行业将温和复苏。这将导致瑞来斯的非石油收入上升和转向技术越来越明显。
几个月前,伯恩斯坦研究公司埃克森瑞来斯描述为印度的答案,美国电话电报公司(AT&T)和亚马逊于一身。它显然成为相反。
加油新的数据
根据周一宣布,银湖Jio估价为650亿美元不包括33亿美元的债务。那
在12.5%的溢价隐含的价值吗脸谱网投资,仅仅两周前签署。这样的基准,Jio单枪匹马瑞来斯贡献53%的总市值为1210亿美元。依赖将拥有90%的业务一旦这两个交易圆满成功。
在零售业,没有外部投资者登录,即使猜测与亚马逊和对话谷歌一次又一次的不断浮出水面。瑞来斯拥有业务94.4%的股份。去年12月的换股上市的计划信实零售的股东们提供了在估值先睹为快,来到约2.5₹十万的卢比(350亿卢比₹70美元水平)。在当前水平,330亿美元。
大多数外国和国内券商属性30 - 40美元的零售业务,而估值计算部分之和。这包括债务和基于上市的平均多重宇宙的本土零售企业如特伦特,大道超级市场(D-Mart),未来零售等等。
消费者,因此,累计贡献至少90 - 95美元市值的78%左右,如果不是更多。
消费者部分因此累计贡献至少950亿美元市值的78%,如果不是更多。
消费者是国王和反周期性的
即使一个看着另一个关键数据——EBITDA,明确从增量增长从何而来。消费者业务的份额(电信和零售)一直与历史相比核心业务增长。他们构成了36%的巩固2020年3季度营业利润17% FY19,瑞来斯演示了。
消费者面临的利润贡献部分可以被衡量的数字服务的营业利润是162卢比在2020年3月季度低于精制段。
依赖Jio和信实零售是市场领导者,在各自领域增长最快的公司。据估计,里昂证券(CLSA)、电信和零售业务将占54%瑞来斯的合并EBITDA FY22 FY20则为36%。
依赖Jio和信实零售市场领导者,在各自领域增长最快的公司。据估计,里昂证券(CLSA)、电信和零售业务将构成FY22瑞来斯合并息税前利润的54%,相比之下,FY20的36%。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)银行家依赖两个技术交易,估计FY2019 EBITDA从石油和天然气上游(包括印度和美国页岩)和石化Rs 6230亿或62300卢比(82亿美元在当前卢比汇率),而21300卢比(28.1亿美元)是EBITDA来自Jio和零售。保持当前的石油行业趋势,这些数字在FY20估计分别为74.6亿美元和41亿美元而FY22挂钩在102亿美元和78.5亿美元。公司的目的是让它由FY22 50:50。
然而,它需要记住卢比兑美元汇率已升值近7%在过去5个月,还将发挥它的作用,影响出口的金融中心商业
精炼。
很明显,在世界范围内,炼油和petchem需求环境严重恶化,原油价格大幅下跌的依赖是有害的。新加坡总炼油利润率(grm)——该地区的关键指标——是在15年低点,因全球petchem公司减少操作,关闭旧的植物或维护。如果长时间,可能会迫使阿拉伯国家石油公司重新评估其处理的依赖,或数学,甚至不惜成本进入一个高速增长的市场,如印度。相比之下,大多数保守将15 - 25%提高ARPU Jio未来两年。
再见的楼房经常被描绘成一个software-to-salt集团。虽然TCS的840亿美元仍然是印度最大、最无可争议的旗舰多元化企业集团,造成整个集团的75%利润,依赖的核心和支柱的定义经历了一种范式转移,很少有公司的实力在全球范围内管理。精炼原油很快让位给提炼数据,安巴尼括号在数十亿美元的亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯争夺印度消费者。
businesses and investors have lapped them up.
There is a reason why this data<\/a> point finds a place in the presentation of a predominantly energy and petrochem company. There was a time when RIL<\/a> and its founder Dhirubhai Ambani wanted to emulate the exploits of global energy super giants like Exxon and Royal Dutch\/Shell and RIL’s own journey from a small textile firm to a global energy and petchem major is testimony to that.
But today, as tastes, preferences and habits change, data<\/a> is the new oil, and digital technology the new superhighway to trillion-dollar success. Mukesh Ambani, Dhirubhai’s eldest son, clearly wants the same story to play out in his business empire.
Facebook<\/a>’s $5.7 bln investment two weeks back and Silver Lake Partners<\/a>’ 1.15% stake buy for Rs 5655.7 crore on Monday have created third party valuation benchmarking ahead of the proposed $100 billion mega listing of Reliance Jio a few years down the line. More importantly, it underpins the pivot away from hydrocarbons and energy towards new economy.
As the world battles a pandemic, oil demand will remain lukewarm for months and a sector that is already battling refining overcapacity will see muted recovery at best. This will result in RIL’s non-oil income going up and the shift towards technology getting more pronounced.
A few months back, Bernstein Research described RIL as India’s answer to Exxon, AT&T and Amazon all rolled into one. Its clearly becoming the other way round.
OILING THE NEW DATA
<\/strong>
Based on Monday’s announcement, Silver Lake has valued Jio at $65 billion excluding $3.3 billion of debt. That
is at a 12.5% premium to the value implied by the Facebook<\/a> investment, signed just two weeks back. So on the back of this benchmarking, Jio is single handedly contributing 53% of RIL’s total market capitalisation of $121 billion. Reliance will own 90% of the business once both these deals get consummated.
In retail, no external investor has logged in yet, even though speculation of dialogues with Amazon and Google<\/a> keeps surfacing time and again. RIL owns 94.4% of the business. Last December’s share swap scheme for the unlisted Reliance Retail<\/a>’s shareholders did offer a sneak peek at the valuations, which came to about ₹2.5 lakh crore ($35 billion taking rupee at₹70 levels to the dollar). At current levels, it would come to $33 billion.
Most foreign and domestic brokerages attribute the $30-40 billion to the retail business while calculating the sum of the parts valuation. This includes debt and is based on the average multiple of the listed universe of home grown retail companies like Trent, Avenue Supermarts (D-Mart), Future Retail among others.
The consumer pieces, therefore, cumulatively are contributing at least $90-95 billion or around 78% of the market capitalisation, if not more.
The consumer pieces therefore cumulatively is contributing at least $95 billion or 78% of the market capitalisation, if not more.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
<\/a><\/figure>After Facebook deal, Jio Platforms gets Rs 5,655.75 crore investment from Silver Lake<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>Jio-Silver Lake deal to help reposition RIL as consumer tech company: Analysts<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
CONSUMER IS KING AND COUNTER CYCLICAL
<\/strong>
Even if one looks at another key data point – EBITDA, its clear from where the incremental growth is coming from. The share of the consumer business (telecom and retail) has been consistently growing when compared with its historical core operations. They constituted 36% of consolidated operating profit in the March 2020 quarter compared with 17% beginning of FY19, RIL presentation shows.
The profit contribution of the consumer facing segment can be gauged from the fact that operating profit of the digital services is just Rs 162 crore lower than refining segment in March 2020 quarter.
Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail<\/a> are market leaders and the fastest growing companies in their respective fields. According to estimates by CLSA<\/a>, telecom and retail business will constitute 54% of RIL’s consolidated EBITDA in FY22 compared with 36% in FY20.
Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail are market leaders and the fastest growing companies in their respective fields. According to estimates by CLSA<\/a>, telecom and retail business will constitute 54% of RIL’s consolidated Ebitda in FY22, compared with 36% in FY20.
Morgan Stanley, bankers to Reliance for the two tech deals, estimated that FY2019 EBITDA from oil and gas (including India upstream and US shale) and petrochemicals was Rs 623 billion or Rs 62,300 crore ($8.2 billion at current rupee rate) while Rs 21,300 crore ($2.81 billion) was the EBITDA generated from Jio and retail. Keeping current oil industry<\/a> trends in mind, these numbers in FY20 are estimated to be $7.46 billion and $4.1 billion respectively while in FY22, they are pegged at $10.2 bn and $7.85 billion. The company’s intent is to make it 50:50 by FY22.
However, it needs to be kept in mind that the rupee has appreciated close to 7% against the dollar in last 5 months and that also would play its part in impacting the financials of an export centric business-like
refining.
It’s evident that worldwide, refining and petchem demand environment has materially worsened and the sharp crude price fall is detrimental for Reliance. Singapore gross refining margins (GRMs) -- a key indicator for the region -- are at a 15 year low as global petchem companies cut down on operations, shut down old plants or advance maintenance. This if prolonged, might force Aramco to reassess its deal with Reliance, or the deal maths, even at the cost of access to a high growth market like India. In comparison, most would conservatively put a 15-25% hike in ARPU for Jio over the next two years.
The storied House of Tatas often gets portrayed as a software-to-salt conglomerate. But while the $84 billion TCS remains the undisputed flagship for India’s largest and most diversified business group, contributing 75% of the entire group’s profit, the definition of Reliance’s core or mainstay has undergone a paradigm shift – something very few corporations of this heft have managed globally. Refining crude is fast giving way to refining data as Ambani braces to take on Amazon’s Jeff Bezos in the multi-billion dollar battle for the Indian consumer.
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