This time was supposed to be different. The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways. A combination of more disciplined management and new markets for its products — including 5G technology<\/a> and cloud services — would ensure that companies delivered more predictable earnings. 这一次应该是不同的。内存芯片行业,闻名兴衰周期,改变了它的方式。更加严格的管理和对其产品——包括新市场5 g技术和云服务——将确保公司交付更可预测的收益。
And yet, less than a year after memory companies made such pronouncements, the $160 billion industry is suffering one of its worst routs ever. There’s a glut of the chips sitting in warehouses, customers are cutting orders, and product prices have plunged.
“The chip industry thought that suppliers were going to have better control,” said Avril Wu, senior research vice president at TrendForce. “This downturn has proved everybody was wrong.”
The unprecedented crisis isn’t just wiping out cash at industry leaders like SK Hynix Inc<\/a>. and Micron Technology Inc<\/a>., but also destabilizing their suppliers, denting Asian economies that rely on tech exports, and forcing the few remaining memory players to form alliances or even consider mergers.
It’s been a swift descent from the industry’s pandemic sales surge, which was fueled by shoppers outfitting home offices and snapping up computers, tablets and smartphones. Now consumers and businesses are holding off on big purchases as they cope with inflation and rising interest rates. Makers of those devices<\/a>, the main buyers of memory chips<\/a>, are suddenly stuck with stockpiles of components and have no need for more.
Already, Samsung Electronics<\/a> Co. and its rivals are losing money on every chip they produce. Their collective operating losses are projected to hit a record $5 billion this year. Inventories — a critical indicator of demand for memory chips<\/a> — have more than tripled to record levels, reaching three to four months’ worth of supply.
Samsung<\/a> looks to be the only one that will escape relatively unscathed, thanks to its heft and diversified business, but even the South Korean giant’s semiconductor division is headed toward losses. Investors will get a sense of the damage this week when the company reports quarterly earnings.
“Chip equipment companies’ sales are plunging by around 30% to 50%. This is not a normal situation,” said Greg Roh, head of technology research at HMC Investment & Securities.
Shares in Samsung<\/a> fell as much as 2.3% Monday morning, in its biggest intraday fall in 12 days. SK Hynix fell 1.6%.
![\"\"](\"\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
Micron, the last remaining US memory chipmaker, has responded aggressively to plummeting demand. The company said late last month that it will cut its budget for new plants and equipment in addition to reducing output. The rate at which the industry rights itself will depend on how quickly the company’s counterparts make similar moves, Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra said.
“We have to get through this cycle,” he said. “I believe the trend of cross-cycle growth and profitability is still in place.”
Over in South Korea, Hynix has also slashed investments and scaled back output. The company’s inventory glut is partly the result of its acquisition of Intel Corp.’s flash memory business — a deal struck before the industry’s decline.
The Korean tech giant has typically continued to spend during downturns, hoping to exit them with superior production and higher profitability when demand picks up. This time around, the market has been betting the company will tighten its chip supply, lifting its stock price in recent weeks.
Chip-manufacturing equipment maker Lam Research Corp. said last week that it’s seeing an unprecedented reduction in orders as memory customers cut and postpone spending. Executives at the company, which counts Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron as its top customers, declined to predict when such actions might help the memory market rebound.
“We’ve seen extraordinary measures within the memory market,” Lam CEO Tim Archer said on a call with investors. “It’s at levels that we haven’t seen in 25 years.”
The risks have prompted companies in the industry to get more conservative. They’re more focused on profitability than trying to grow quickly and gain market share.
That’s especially true for so-called DRAM chips, where the three dominant suppliers — Samsung, Hynix and Micron — are reducing supply, said Shin Jinho, co-CEO of Midas International Asset Management. The other major part of the memory market, NAND chips, is more fragmented and is set to go through a more severe battle as the many contenders fight for survival, he said.
“The NAND market is experiencing fierce competition and the recovery will follow one quarter after the DRAM market recovery,” Shin said. “If the situation gets longer, eventually, we are going to see consolidation in the NAND market.”
The longer-term question is when customers’ demand will bounce back. China’s recent exit from Covid-related restrictions could be one catalyst to help the industry, as gadget makers will be able to bring manufacturing plants back to normal rhythm, said HMC Investment’s Roh.
“There will be pent-up demand for gadgets as well,” he said. “Our view is that memory will recover in the second half.”
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然而,不到一年之后记忆公司做出这样的声明,1600亿美元的产业正遭受最严重的路径之一。有大量的芯片坐在仓库,客户正在削减订单和产品价格暴跌。
“芯片行业认为供应商要有更好的控制,“艾薇儿Wu说,高级研究副总裁TrendForce。“这次经济衰退已经证明每个人都错了。”
这是一个迅速下降的行业的流行销售激增,这是受消费者舾装家庭办公室和抢购电脑,平板电脑和智能手机。现在消费者和企业在大笔消费,因为他们应对通货膨胀和利率上升。制造商的设备的主要买家内存芯片,突然卡在库存的组件,不需要更多。
了,三星电子公司和它的竞争对手是亏钱在每一个芯片。他们的集体经营亏损今年预计将达到创纪录的50亿美元。库存,需求的一个关键指标内存芯片——已经增加了两倍多至创纪录水平,达到三到四个月的供应。
三星似乎是唯一一个将逃脱相对较小,由于其实力和多元化的业务,但即使韩国巨头的半导体业务走向亏损。投资者本周将了解损害公司季度收益报告。
“芯片设备公司的销量暴跌30%至50%左右。这不是一个正常的情况下,”Greg卢武铉说,科技研究主管HMC投资证券。
的股票三星周一早上跌幅一度高达2.3%,在其最大盘中下跌12天。SK海力士下跌了1.6%。
微米,最后我们内存芯片制造商回应积极需求暴跌。该公司上个月表示,它将削减预算的新工厂和设备除了减少输出。行业权利本身的速度迅速将取决于公司的同行进行类似的举措,首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra说。
“我们必须通过这个循环,”他说。“我相信cross-cycle增长和盈利的趋势仍在。”
在韩国,海力士也削减了投资和减少输出。公司的库存过剩的部分结果收购英特尔(intc . o:行情)的闪存业务——该行业的衰落之前所达成的协议。
韩国科技巨头通常继续花在经济衰退期间,希望用优越的生产和出口需求回升时更高的盈利能力。这一次,市场一直押注公司将加强其芯片供应,提高其股票价格最近几周。
芯片设备制造商林研究公司上周表示,它看到前所未有的客户订单减少内存减少并推迟支出。数三星公司的高管,SK海力士和微米为顶级客户,拒绝预测何时这样的行动可能有助于内存市场反弹。
“我们看到在内存市场非常措施,”林总裁蒂姆·阿彻说在与投资者的电话。“这是水平25年来,我们没见过。”
风险促使公司在业界得到更为保守。他们更关注盈利能力比试图快速增长和扩大市场份额。
特别是所谓的DRAM芯片,这三个主要供应商——三星、海力士和微米——减少供应,Shin Jinho说,迈达斯国际资产管理公司的联合首席执行官。其他主要的一部分内存市场,NAND芯片,更分散,将经历更严重的斗争,成为许多竞争者的生存之战,他说。
NAND闪存市场正在经历激烈的竞争和经济复苏将遵循一个季度DRAM市场复苏后,“Shin说。“如果形势变长,最终,我们将看到在NAND闪存市场整合。”
长期的问题是当客户的需求将反弹。中国最近退出Covid-related限制可能是催化剂,帮助行业,随着设备制造商将能够带来制造工厂恢复正常节奏,HMC投资的卢武铉说。
“将会有被压抑的需求产品,”他说。“我们的观点是,记忆会在下半年恢复。”
读到
This time was supposed to be different. The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways. A combination of more disciplined management and new markets for its products — including 5G technology<\/a> and cloud services — would ensure that companies delivered more predictable earnings.
And yet, less than a year after memory companies made such pronouncements, the $160 billion industry is suffering one of its worst routs ever. There’s a glut of the chips sitting in warehouses, customers are cutting orders, and product prices have plunged.
“The chip industry thought that suppliers were going to have better control,” said Avril Wu, senior research vice president at TrendForce. “This downturn has proved everybody was wrong.”
The unprecedented crisis isn’t just wiping out cash at industry leaders like SK Hynix Inc<\/a>. and Micron Technology Inc<\/a>., but also destabilizing their suppliers, denting Asian economies that rely on tech exports, and forcing the few remaining memory players to form alliances or even consider mergers.
It’s been a swift descent from the industry’s pandemic sales surge, which was fueled by shoppers outfitting home offices and snapping up computers, tablets and smartphones. Now consumers and businesses are holding off on big purchases as they cope with inflation and rising interest rates. Makers of those devices<\/a>, the main buyers of memory chips<\/a>, are suddenly stuck with stockpiles of components and have no need for more.
Already, Samsung Electronics<\/a> Co. and its rivals are losing money on every chip they produce. Their collective operating losses are projected to hit a record $5 billion this year. Inventories — a critical indicator of demand for memory chips<\/a> — have more than tripled to record levels, reaching three to four months’ worth of supply.
Samsung<\/a> looks to be the only one that will escape relatively unscathed, thanks to its heft and diversified business, but even the South Korean giant’s semiconductor division is headed toward losses. Investors will get a sense of the damage this week when the company reports quarterly earnings.
“Chip equipment companies’ sales are plunging by around 30% to 50%. This is not a normal situation,” said Greg Roh, head of technology research at HMC Investment & Securities.
Shares in Samsung<\/a> fell as much as 2.3% Monday morning, in its biggest intraday fall in 12 days. SK Hynix fell 1.6%.
Micron, the last remaining US memory chipmaker, has responded aggressively to plummeting demand. The company said late last month that it will cut its budget for new plants and equipment in addition to reducing output. The rate at which the industry rights itself will depend on how quickly the company’s counterparts make similar moves, Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra said.
“We have to get through this cycle,” he said. “I believe the trend of cross-cycle growth and profitability is still in place.”
Over in South Korea, Hynix has also slashed investments and scaled back output. The company’s inventory glut is partly the result of its acquisition of Intel Corp.’s flash memory business — a deal struck before the industry’s decline.
The Korean tech giant has typically continued to spend during downturns, hoping to exit them with superior production and higher profitability when demand picks up. This time around, the market has been betting the company will tighten its chip supply, lifting its stock price in recent weeks.
Chip-manufacturing equipment maker Lam Research Corp. said last week that it’s seeing an unprecedented reduction in orders as memory customers cut and postpone spending. Executives at the company, which counts Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron as its top customers, declined to predict when such actions might help the memory market rebound.
“We’ve seen extraordinary measures within the memory market,” Lam CEO Tim Archer said on a call with investors. “It’s at levels that we haven’t seen in 25 years.”
The risks have prompted companies in the industry to get more conservative. They’re more focused on profitability than trying to grow quickly and gain market share.
That’s especially true for so-called DRAM chips, where the three dominant suppliers — Samsung, Hynix and Micron — are reducing supply, said Shin Jinho, co-CEO of Midas International Asset Management. The other major part of the memory market, NAND chips, is more fragmented and is set to go through a more severe battle as the many contenders fight for survival, he said.
“The NAND market is experiencing fierce competition and the recovery will follow one quarter after the DRAM market recovery,” Shin said. “If the situation gets longer, eventually, we are going to see consolidation in the NAND market.”
The longer-term question is when customers’ demand will bounce back. China’s recent exit from Covid-related restrictions could be one catalyst to help the industry, as gadget makers will be able to bring manufacturing plants back to normal rhythm, said HMC Investment’s Roh.
“There will be pent-up demand for gadgets as well,” he said. “Our view is that memory will recover in the second half.”
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