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New Delhi: The government's decision on November 8 to immediately ban Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes that account for 86% of all currency in circulation has impacted a raft of sectors. Consumers have turned frugal, causing a sharp drop in demand for goods and services<\/a>. While farmers and small industries will bear the brunt and sectors like transport and real estate will visibly be in pain, several other industrial sectors will have to scale back services or production.
\nLijee Philip, Shailesh Menon and Shelley Singh take a look at some industrial sectors whose growth will be hit in the short to medium term .
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FROM CASH<\/a> TO LESS CASH TO CASHLESS<\/a>
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From American economist Larry Summers to yoga-guru-cum-entrepreneur Baba Ramdev, opinion on the world's largest demonetisation<\/a> drive has been split into two -it's not enough to curb corruption to it will work to curb black money.
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\nBut will it eventually lead to a world of cash free transactions where coins and notes are replaced by bits and bytes and spending, earning, investing get updated in real time via smart phones. Possible perhaps in a country with 1 billion mobile phones. But less likely in the immediate future considering only 200-odd million have a smartphone and others manage with less sophisticated phones. Lack of knowhow is also a challenge.
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\nNonetheless, in the last three weeks people have been managing with less cash--moribund Point of Sales machines are suddenly whizzing and frequently getting knocked out due to system overload. Orders for new card swipe machines have leaped 200 times. More and more debit cards are being used to buy goods and not just to withdraw cash. The three weeks since November 8 have seen a spurt in cashless transactions. That said, cash is likely to be back as the preferred option for transactions when things normalise.Shelley Singh examines the prospects of a cashless world, the experience of other countries and more.
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\nAUTOMOBILES LIFE IN THE SLOW LANE
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nInterest rate and tax cuts soon
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nFall in sales of two-wheelers, commercial vehicles and luxury cars
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\nNUMBER GAME:
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\nIn November, utility vehicles sales expected to be down 40-50%, commercial vehicle sales down by 50-60% and two-wheelers 20-40%
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\nSales of commercial vehicles, two wheelers and luxury cars are the worst hit by the demonetisation move. Carmakers are skimping on production to streamline inventory and have reduced dealer (wholesale) targets by up to 40%.
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\nWhile footfalls at dealerships across the country have dropped by 50-60%, bookings have fallen equally by 50%.Gautam Modi, a Mumbai-based Audi dealer, says sales fell by more than 45% in November. Even rural markets, which account for nearly two-thirds of entry-level motorcycle sales in the country, are in pain because vehicle purchases are done by cash. To offset the impact, manufacturers e though dealers and finance companies have started offering lower interest g rates and zero down payment to push sales. RC Bhargava, chairman of ) Maruti Suzuki, the country's largest car maker, however sees this as a blip.
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\nThe impact on small car sales may be , minimal as most of the transactions oc. cur through bank financing or loans.i “We have advance bookings and the waiting period for several models which , will help us tide through this phase.“
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\nHOSPITALITYTRAVEL THE TRIP CAN WAIT
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nUse of credit cards at national monuments, rise in digital payments
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nCancellation and no show rate increased by 33% in fine dining restaurants, drop in inbound tourism; airline bookings drop, cancellations increase
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\nNUMBER GAME:
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Restaurant reservations in Delhi NCR dropped by 28%, in Mumbai by 7% and in Bengaluru by 2% Demonetisation is weighing heavily on the tourism sector, already under stress due to the sharp escalation in pollution n India. The number of inbound tourists visiting national monuments have dropped significantly after the note ban. Almost all these places only accept cash, which leaves no option for these travellers, says Rajeev Kohli , Senior VP, Indian Association of Tour Operators.“This ban has almost choked the tourism industry<\/a> forcing many travellers to postpone or cancel travel,“ he says.
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\nAirlines too are seeing a drop in bookings and occupancy and increase in cancellations. On Monday, SpiceJet CMD Ajay Singh told a business channel that there is a visible impact of demonetisation on airlines.
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\nPopular tourist destinations of Indian travellers such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Maldives, Hawaii, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Nepal, China, Indonesia and Dubai have all seen a drop in bookings.The currency ban has caused huge uncertainty and disrupted transactions for smaller hotels, restaurants and food and beverage operations, which accept cash. Restaurant reservations dropped the highest in Delhi NCR, followed by Mumbai and Bengaluru, according to an EazyDiner report.
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FMCG<\/a> DEMAND INTACT, BUT WHERE IS THE MONEY?
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nPending dues flowing in from wholesalers (using old currencies)
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nRural buying power reduced
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\nNUMBER GAME:
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\n3540% drop in sales expected in the interim FMCG companies are already star ing at a 20 30% fall in sales post the note ban -and much of it is coming from rural India. Rural markets account for 40 45% of revenue for all major FMCGretailfocused companies.
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\nWhile most analysts expect sales of essential items like soap and toothpastes to continue unhindered, categories like body cream, special body oils, deodorants, high-end shampoos, snacks and fries, chocolates, special enriched food items and ice-creams may log lower sales in the interim.
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\n“There's demand for these products, but people do not have enough liquidity (money) to buy them,“ says Abneesh Roy, senior VP & FMCG-retail analyst at Edelweiss Securities.
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\n“People mostly use cash in rural India; they don't use cards like the way people in cities do. Since most FMCG companies have a large rural portfo lio, we may see some dip in their earnings over the next two-three quarters.“
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\nMost equity analysts, whom ET consulted, expect FMCG sales to drop 35 40% over the next two quarters. The only silver lining being the fact that many FMCG companies have managed to collect “pending pay-ins“ (collection dues) from powerful wholesalers in old `500 and `1,000 notes.
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\nBANKSNBFCS NO TIME FOR MONEY-SPINNERS AT THIS RATE
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nIncrease in CASA deposits for most banks; lending rates to drop further
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nMFIs, NBFCs miss collection cycles
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\nNUMBER GAME:
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\nBanks have received deposits in excess of `6 trillion since the note ban The government's demonetisation drive may puncture the earn ings of most banks this quarter.
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\nWith most staffers handling the `500 and `1000 note deposits, exchange and withdrawals, “revenue-yielding“ operations such as vending loans and cross-selling investment products have taken a backseat in most banks.
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\n“The earnings of banks may take a hit in the third and fourth quarter,“ says Siddharth Purohit, senior banking analyst at Angel Broking, a retail stock brokerage. “We may not see loan book growth as most banks are busy facilitating the demonetisation process. They're not aggressively selling a lot of credit products now. That apart, the SME and real estate sectors, to which most banks lend a significant part of their book are in a state of lull.“
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\nDemonetisation will help most banks improve their CASA (current account, saving account) deposit counters, albeit not many analysts expect this money to remain in the bank for long. Flushed with cash, most banks would now be forced to cut rates on both deposits and lending over the next few weeks. This, in turn, may spur credit offtake in the banking sector towards the first quarter of next fiscal.
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\nNBFCs and microfinance institutions (MFIs) are under severe stress as their collection cy cles (mostly in cash) have gone awry post November 8. Most NBFCs and MFIs have announced `collection holidays' till such time there's sufficient money in the system.
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E-COMMERCE<\/a> FEWER CLICKS
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nGood for unit economics as Cash on Delivery down and returns drop
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nAll companies hit; niche players worse off
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\nNUMBERS GAME:
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\nSales down 60-70% Of the 1 million items shipped daily from e-commerce com panies, 60% are on cash-on delivery (CoD). “These are not getting placed. Suddenly priority for shopping is low,“ says Sreedhar Prasad, partner, ecommerce and startups, KPMG India.
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\nWhile sellers say their business is down in the dumps, e-commerce companies are playing down the post-demonetisation impact. “Customers are adopting electronic payments at delivery and this has seen 10X growth,“ says an Amazon India spokesperson. Snapdeal says its digital wallet Freecharge has helped. A day after the decision to ban `500 and `1,000 notes, e-commerce companies capped CoD orders to below `1,000 with all purchases above this amount to be carried out by digital wallets or cards.
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\nSellers have a dif ferent view.Deepak Chopra, founder of Softek Surya, a seller based in Nehru Place, Delhi, says daily shipments to portals are down to 700 from 4,000. “I have 60 employees and monthly costs of `20 lakh. My sales have dropped to less than `5 lakh. How will I pay them?“ Hyderabad based seller Redlily and Jaipur based jewellery brand Dhora have also seen sharp decline in online sales.
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\nThe worse hit among e-commerce companies are the niche sellers-selling a single category like lingerie, eyewear, fashion-whose sales have dropped 60-70%. “People are buying only essentials. Besides, the large companies are equipping their logistics staff with card readers to ease payments in delivery. Smaller companies can't afford that,“ says Prasad of KPMG.
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\nLUXURY MARKET BLING GOES OUT OF FASHION
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nHuge, immediate spike in sales.Long-term sales depend on rise in dispoable income
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nLayoffs in short term; Could take longer to stabilise as buyers wait for impact of GST & any budget proposals as well
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\nNUMBER GAME:
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\nOverall market drops by 50-60% The luxury goods market already reel ing under the impact of global and local issues -from weak outlook to manda tory PAN requirement for purchases topping `2 lakh -got another hard knock due to demonetisation. The exception was the window between 8 pm and the wee hours of November 9 when buyers flocked to pick up expensive perfumes, scarves, watches, jewellery, smartphones (mainly iPhones) with the discontinued currency notes.
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\n“The immediate impact is severe,“ says Anurag Mathur, partner and retail expert, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) India.
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\nRajat Wahi, partner and head of consumer markets, KPMG India, believes there could be layoffs and the pain could last for six months.“After two quarters, pent-up demand will push sales,“ says Wahi.
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\nLuxury buyers could also go into hiding as they wait for the implications of GST and budget proposals. “Some drop (in luxury sales) might be permanent even, as buyers wait to get clarity,“ says Wahi.
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\nGOLD THE SHINE IS LOST FOR NOW
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nGold prices may fall post December
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nGold sales reduced to a trickle
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\nNUMBER GAME:
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\nPrice may drop below `28,000 per-ten-grams post December Zaveri Bazaar, the famed gold market of Mumbai, registers business worth `125 crore on an average day. Post the noteban, this has dropped to a mere `13 crore worth of sales per day.
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\n“We don't have buyers now...all that we get are people dealing in recycled gold and some minor wedding purchases,“ says Kumar Jain, vice-chairman of the Mumbai Jewellers Association.
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\nThe jewellers of Zaveri Bazaar were hoping to make a killing this wedding season as some 29,000 marriages are slated to take place across India in November and December. To meet the demand head on, wholesale jewellers of Zaveri Bazaar had imported and stocked close to 70 tonnes of gold (as against their quarterly import average of 30 tonnes).
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\n“Now we're left with only stock and no buyers... People have even started rescheduling marriages or holding simple ceremonies in courts and temples.“
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\nThe demonetisation drive is expected to depress gold prices significantly. Currently trading at `28,750 (per ten grams), gold prices are expected to drop below `28,000 (per ten grams) post December.Jewellers are also worried about tax raids as there are widespread reports of black money hoard ers using gold to clean up their cash-in-hand (in the initial days of demonetisation).
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\nENTERTAINMENT SHOW GOES ON, ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWLY
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\nPOSITIVE IMPACT:
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\nMore card spending, online booking now
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\nNEGATIVE IMPACT:
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\nNearly a dozen studios have delayed their (film) releases
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\nNUMBER GAME:
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\nAverage viewership dropped to just 55 people per show in the first week of demonetisation
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\nEntertainment sector (mostly cinema houses) could be the first one to wriggle out of hard ships caused by the demonetisation drive.
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\nAfter two weeks of “low business days“, things are looking up for most cinema houses as people have started using “plastic money“ to get their weekly celluloid fix.
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\n“Our card-based sales of tickets and food & beverages have doubled since the note ban,“ says Siddharth Jain, director, INOX Leisure. “For the first two weeks, people didn't have enough time to come and watch a movie as they were standing in bank queues... that period is behind us now.“
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\nTo increase footfalls, multiplex chains like Inox have set up POS machines on their premises to facilitate withdrawal of cash up to `2,000 a card every day.That said, nearly a dozen studios (mostly regional banners) have delayed their film releases indefinitely, awaiting the return of cash in the patrons' wallets.Lijee.Philip@timesgroup.com
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Demonetisation正在考虑行业如何
从美国经济学家拉里·萨默斯yoga-guru-cum-entrepreneur Baba Ramdev,舆论在世界上最大的demonetisation驱动器被分成两个——不足以遏制腐败将努力遏制黑钱。
新德里:政府决定在11月8日立即禁止Rs 500和Rs 1000指出,占86%的货币发行量影响一系列部门。消费者把节俭,导致需求大幅下滑商品和服务。虽然农民和小型企业将首当其冲,交通和房地产等行业将明显疼痛,其他几个工业部门将不得不缩减服务或生产。
Lijee菲利普,Shailesh梅农和雪莱辛格看看一些工业领域的增长将在短期到中期。
从现金减少现金不通过现金的
从美国经济学家拉里·萨默斯yoga-guru-cum-entrepreneur Baba Ramdev,对世界上最大的demonetisation驱动已经分裂成两个——不足以遏制腐败将努力遏制黑钱。
但它最终将导致一个硬币和纸币的世界无现金交易取而代之的是比特和字节和支出,收入,投资得到实时更新通过智能手机。可能也许在一个国家有10亿手机。但不太可能在不久的将来考虑只有200多万智能手机和其他管理不那么复杂的手机。缺乏技术也是一个挑战。
尽管如此,在过去的三个星期里人们用更少的现金管理,垂死的销售点机器突然呼啸而过,由于系统过载频繁出局。新卡刷卡机器的订单已经跳动200次。越来越多的借记卡被用于购买商品,而不仅仅是提取现金。11月8日以来的三个星期看过无现金交易激增。说,现金可能会回来的首选交易当事情正常化。雪莱辛格检查的前景一个无现金的世界,其他国家的经验等等。
慢车道上的生活汽车
积极的影响:
利率和减税
负面影响:
自行车的销量锐减,商用车和豪华轿车
数字游戏:
去年11月,多功能车销售将下降40 - 50%,商用车销售下降了50 - 60%,自行车20 - 40%
商用车销售,两个车夫和豪华轿车是受灾最严重的地区demonetisation移动。汽车制造商节省生产精简库存和减少了经销商(批发)40%的目标。
当脚步声在全国各地的经销商下降了50 - 60%,预订同样下降了50%。孟买奥迪经销商Gautam莫迪说,11月销量下降超过45%。即使是农村市场,占将近三分之二的入门级摩托车销售,在痛苦,因为车辆通过现金购买。来抵消影响,制造商e虽然经销商和金融公司开始提供低利息g利率和零首付,推动销售。)主席RC Bhargava马鲁蒂铃木中国最大的汽车制造商,但是认为这是暂时的。
汽车销售的影响小,最小的大部分交易oc。坏蛋通过银行融资或贷款。我“我们已经提前预订和等待期几个模型,将帮助我们通过这个阶段潮流。”
HOSPITALITYTRAVEL旅行可以等
积极的影响:
使用信用卡在国家纪念碑,上升的数字支付
负面影响:
取消,没有显示率增加了33%在美食餐馆,入境旅游下降;机票预订,取消增加
数字游戏:
餐厅订位在德里NCR下降了28%,在孟买和7%的在班加罗尔2% Demonetisation给旅游业带来了巨大的压力,在压力下已经在印度污染n由于急剧升级。入境游客数量的国家纪念碑注意禁止后大幅下降。几乎所有这些地方只接受现金,没有选择这些旅行者,Rajeev克里说,高级副总裁,印度旅行社协会。“这几乎哽咽的旅游禁令行业迫使许多旅客推迟或取消旅行,”他说。
航空公司也看到了取消预订和入住率下降增加。周一,扭亏为盈CMD Ajay辛格告诉业务渠道,可见demonetisation对航空公司的影响。
受欢迎的旅游目的地的印度游客如泰国、新加坡、马来西亚、马尔代夫、夏威夷、越南、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、中国、印度尼西亚和迪拜都见过预订量下降。货币禁令引起了巨大的不确定性和干扰交易规模较小的酒店,餐馆和食品和饮料业务,接受现金。餐厅预订了NCR在德里最高,其次是孟买和班加罗尔,据EazyDiner报告。
快速消费品需求完好无损,但钱在哪里?
积极的影响:
等待费流动从批发商(使用旧货币)
负面影响:
农村购买力降低
数字游戏:
销售额下降3540%,预计在此期间快速消费品公司已经明星荷兰国际集团(ing)在20个销售下降30%后注意禁令——大部分来自印度农村。农村市场占40为所有主要FMCGretailfocused公司45%的收入。
虽然大多数分析师预计的销售必要的物品,如肥皂和牙膏持续蔓延,类别,如身体霜、特殊身体油,除臭剂,高端洗发水、零食和薯条,巧克力,特别强化食品和冰淇淋可能在临时日志的销量减少。
“对这些产品的需求,但人们没有足够的流动性(钱)买“Abneesh罗伊说,高级副总裁& FMCG-retail雪绒花证券分析师。
“人们大多使用现金在印度农村;他们不使用卡片喜欢人们在城市做的方式。因为大多数快速消费品公司有一个大农村portfo利奥,我们可能看到一些他们的收入下降在未来2 - 3季度。”
大多数股票分析师,咨询,希望快速消费品销售下降35 40%在接下来的两个季度。唯一的一线希望是事实,很多快速消费品企业都设法收集“等待存款底”(收集费)从强大的批发商在旧的500年和1000年的笔记。
在这个利率BANKSNBFCS滋长,没有时间
积极的影响:
大多数银行CASA增加存款;贷款利率进一步下降
负面影响:
小额信贷机构,nbfc收集周期小姐
数字游戏:
银行收到存款超过6万亿年以来注意禁止政府demonetisation开车可能穿刺获得大多数银行本季度的老年男性。
与大多数员工处理500和1000存款,交换和取款,“revenue-yielding”操作,比如自动售货贷款和交叉销售投资产品在大多数银行采取了后座。
“银行的收益可能在第三和第四季度遭受打击,”哈斯。Purohit说天使经纪,资深银行业分析师零售股票经纪。“我们可能不像大多数银行贷款增长正忙着促进demonetisation过程。他们不是积极销售大量的信贷产品。分开,大多数的中小企业和房地产行业,银行借给他们的书的重要组成部分是处于平静状态。”
Demonetisation将帮助大多数银行提高CASA(经常账户、储蓄账户)存款计数器,尽管不是很多分析师预计这笔钱留在银行的长。冲洗用现金,大多数银行将被迫降息存款和贷款在未来几周内。反过来,这可能导致银行业的信贷除去对第一季度的财政。
nbfc和小额信贷机构(小额信贷机构)受到严重的压力作为收集cy cl出错(主要是现金)11月8日。大多数nbfc和小额信贷机构已经宣布“收集假期”到系统中这些时间有足够的金钱。
电子商务更少的点击
积极的影响:
好的单位经济货到付现下来收益下降
负面影响:
所有公司打击;小众玩家更糟
数字游戏:
销售下降了60 - 70%每天从发货的100万项目的电子商务公司,60%是现金交付(CoD)。“这些都是没有得到。突然优先考虑购物很低,“Sreedhar Prasad说,伙伴,电子商务创业,毕马威印度。
虽然卖家说他们的业务是垂头丧气,淡化post-demonetisation影响电子商务公司。“客户是采用电子支付在这个已交付和10倍的增长,”印度亚马逊的发言人说。Snapdeal称其电子钱包Freecharge帮助。一天后决定禁令的500年和1000年指出,电子商务公司的鳕鱼订单与以上购买这个数量低于1000年由数字钱包或卡片。
卖家有不同的观点。创始人Deepak Chopra Softek苏亚卖家在尼赫鲁地方,德里说,每天出货量门户从700下降到4000。“我有60名员工,每月20十万的成本。我的销售已经下降到了不到5十万卢比。我将如何支付?“基于海德拉巴卖家发红光和斋浦尔珠宝品牌Dhora也看到网上销售急剧下降。
之间的严重的影响电子商务公司利基销售商做出的,销售一个分类就像内衣,眼镜,fashion-whose销售下降了60 - 70%。“人们只买必需品。此外,大公司装备他们的物流人员卡片读者轻松地支付交货。小公司负担不起,”毕马威的普拉萨德说。
奢侈品市场珠宝的时尚
积极的影响:
巨大的,直接的销售高峰。长期的销售取决于dispoable收入上升
负面影响:
裁员在短期内;可能需要更长的时间来稳定买家等待销售税和任何预算提案的影响吗
数字游戏:
整体市场下降50 - 60%的奢侈品市场已经卷荷兰国际集团(ing)的影响下,全球和当地的问题——从前景到曼达岛保守党锅要求购买超过2多数由于demonetisation忘记另一个硬敲。8点之间的例外是窗口和11月9日的凌晨,当买家涌入挑选昂贵的香水,围巾、手表、珠宝、智能手机(主要是iphone)停止流通纸币。
说:“直接影响严重,Anurag Mathur伙伴和零售专家,普华永道(PwC)印度。
顾磊杰(Rajat Wahi合伙人及消费市场,毕马威印度,相信会有裁员和疼痛可能会持续六个月。“两个季度之后,被压抑的需求将推动销售,“Wahi说。
奢侈品买家也可以躲藏起来等待销售税和预算提案的意义。“一些下降(在奢侈品销售)甚至可能是永久性的,因为买家等待清晰,“Wahi说。
现在黄金光泽失去了
积极的影响:
邮报》12月黄金价格将会下降
负面影响:
黄金销售变成了涓涓细流
数字游戏:
价格可能会低于28000年per-ten-grams Zaveri Bazaar 12月后,孟买的著名的黄金市场,注册业务价值125卢比的平均每天。帖子noteban,这已经下降到仅仅每天13卢比的价值销售。
“我们没有买家现在…我们让人们从事回收金和购买一些小的婚礼,”Kumar Jain说,孟买珠宝商协会副主席。
Zaveri Bazaar的珠宝商希望赚一笔这个结婚旺季29000婚姻将在11月和12月发生在印度。来满足需求,珠宝商Zaveri Bazaar的进口和批发库存接近70吨黄金进口(如反对他们的季度平均30吨)。
“现在只剩下股票和没有买家…人甚至开始重新安排婚姻或在法院和寺庙举行简单仪式。”
demonetisation驱动预计将大幅打压金价。目前在28750年(每10克),黄金价格将低于”28000年12月(每10克)职位。珠宝商还担心税收袭击有广泛报道的黑钱囤积人使用黄金清理他们的手头现金(demonetisation初始的日子)。
娱乐节目,虽然慢一点
积极的影响:
现在更多的信用卡消费,在线预订
负面影响:
近12个工作室已经推迟了他们(电影)版本
数字游戏:
平均收视率下降至55人/展示demonetisation的第一周
娱乐部门(主要是电影院)可能是第一个摆脱船只demonetisation造成的硬碟。
经过两个星期的“低工作日”,随着人们对大多数电影院形势正在好转已经开始使用“塑料钱”进行每周的赛璐珞修复。
“我们的信用卡销售的门票和食物&饮料注意禁令以来已经翻了一倍,”哈斯Jain说,导演,不锈钢休闲。”前两周,人们没有足够的时间和看电影,因为他们站在银行排队……这一时期已经过去了。”
增加脚步声,不锈钢等多路链建立POS机的前提,以促进撤回现金每天多达2000卡。说,近12个工作室(大部分地区横幅)无限期地推迟了电影版本,等待返回现金的顾客的wallets.Lijee.Philip@timesgroup.com
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