独家
地球轨道上有多少颗卫星?
在20世纪下半叶，卫星数量缓慢但稳定增长，直到2010年代初，每年大约发射60到100颗卫星。
似乎每周都会有一枚火箭发射到太空，运载火星探测器、游客，或者最常见的是，卫星．“太空越来越拥挤”的观点已经存在了几年，但它到底有多拥挤呢?那里会有多拥挤呢?
我是物理学教授和空间科学与技术中心在马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校。许多被送入轨道的卫星已经死亡并在大气中烧毁，但仍有数千颗。跟踪组织卫星发射不要总是报告相同的确切数字，但总体趋势是明确的——而且令人震惊。
自1957年苏联发射第一颗人造卫星Sputnik以来，人类每年都在稳步地将越来越多的物体送入轨道。在20世纪下半叶，卫星数量缓慢但稳定增长，直到2010年代初，每年大约发射60到100颗卫星。
但自那以后，这一速度急剧加快。
到2020年，114次发射将约1300颗卫星送入太空，首次超过每年新增1000颗卫星的大关。但过去没有哪一年能与2021年相比。截至9月16日，大约有1400颗新卫星已经开始环绕地球运行，而且随着时间的推移，这一数字只会增加。就在本周，SpaceX公司又部署了51人我们卫星进入轨道。
小型卫星，易于进入轨道
这种指数级增长有两个主要原因。首先，将卫星送入太空从未如此容易。例如，在2021年8月29日，SpaceX的一枚火箭将几颗卫星——包括一颗由我的学生建造的卫星——送往国际空间站。2021年10月11日，这些卫星将进入轨道，卫星数量将再次增加。
第二个原因是，火箭比以往任何时候都更容易、更便宜地携带更多卫星。这种增长并不是因为火箭变得更强大。相反，得益于电子革命，卫星变得更小了。2020年发射的所有航天器中，绝大多数(94%)是小卫星，即重量不到1320磅(600公斤)左右的卫星。
这些卫星大部分用于观测地球或通信和互联网。为了将互联网带到全球服务不足的地区，两家私营公司，SpaceX和StarlinkOneWeb两国仅在2020年就发射了近1000颗小型卫星。它们都计划在未来几年发射4万多颗卫星，在近地轨道上创建所谓的“巨型星座”。
最引人注目的是，还有几家公司也在关注这个价值1万亿美元的市场亚马逊柯伊伯计划。
拥挤的天空
随着卫星数量的巨大增长，对拥挤天空的担忧开始成为现实。在太空探索技术公司发射了第一批60颗星链卫星的一天后，天文学家开始看到它们挡住了恒星。虽然对可见天文学的影响很容易理解，但射电天文学家担心，由于像星链这样的巨型卫星的干扰，他们可能会在某些频率上失去70%的灵敏度。
专家们一直在研究和讨论这些星座带来的潜在问题，以及卫星公司可以解决这些问题的方法。这些措施包括减少卫星的数量和亮度，共享它们的位置，以及支持更好的图像处理软件。
随着近地轨道越来越拥挤，人们对太空碎片的担忧也在增加，碰撞的可能性也在增加。
未来趋势
不到10年前，太空民主化还是一个尚未实现的目标。现在，随着学生在空间站上的项目，以及超过105个国家在太空中至少拥有一颗卫星，人们可以说，这个目标是可以实现的。
每一次颠覆性的技术进步都需要更新规则——或者创造新的规则。SpaceX已经测试了降低星链星座影响的方法，亚马逊也透露了在任务完成后355天内让卫星脱离轨道的计划。不同利益攸关方的这些行动和其他行动让我充满希望，商业、科学和人类的努力将为这一潜在危机找到可持续的解决方案。
(免责声明:本文由美联社联合从对话。马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校的Supriya Chakrabarti。个人观点。)
我是物理学教授和空间科学与技术中心在马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校。许多被送入轨道的卫星已经死亡并在大气中烧毁，但仍有数千颗。跟踪组织卫星发射不要总是报告相同的确切数字，但总体趋势是明确的——而且令人震惊。
自1957年苏联发射第一颗人造卫星Sputnik以来，人类每年都在稳步地将越来越多的物体送入轨道。在20世纪下半叶，卫星数量缓慢但稳定增长，直到2010年代初，每年大约发射60到100颗卫星。
到2020年，114次发射将约1300颗卫星送入太空，首次超过每年新增1000颗卫星的大关。但过去没有哪一年能与2021年相比。截至9月16日，大约有1400颗新卫星已经开始环绕地球运行，而且随着时间的推移，这一数字只会增加。就在本周，SpaceX公司又部署了51人我们卫星进入轨道。
小型卫星，易于进入轨道
这种指数级增长有两个主要原因。首先，将卫星送入太空从未如此容易。例如，在2021年8月29日，SpaceX的一枚火箭将几颗卫星——包括一颗由我的学生建造的卫星——送往国际空间站。2021年10月11日，这些卫星将进入轨道，卫星数量将再次增加。
第二个原因是，火箭比以往任何时候都更容易、更便宜地携带更多卫星。这种增长并不是因为火箭变得更强大。相反，得益于电子革命，卫星变得更小了。2020年发射的所有航天器中，绝大多数(94%)是小卫星，即重量不到1320磅(600公斤)左右的卫星。
最引人注目的是，还有几家公司也在关注这个价值1万亿美元的市场亚马逊柯伊伯计划。
拥挤的天空
随着卫星数量的巨大增长，对拥挤天空的担忧开始成为现实。在太空探索技术公司发射了第一批60颗星链卫星的一天后，天文学家开始看到它们挡住了恒星。虽然对可见天文学的影响很容易理解，但射电天文学家担心，由于像星链这样的巨型卫星的干扰，他们可能会在某些频率上失去70%的灵敏度。
专家们一直在研究和讨论这些星座带来的潜在问题，以及卫星公司可以解决这些问题的方法。这些措施包括减少卫星的数量和亮度，共享它们的位置，以及支持更好的图像处理软件。
随着近地轨道越来越拥挤，人们对太空碎片的担忧也在增加，碰撞的可能性也在增加。
未来趋势
不到10年前，太空民主化还是一个尚未实现的目标。现在，随着学生在空间站上的项目，以及超过105个国家在太空中至少拥有一颗卫星，人们可以说，这个目标是可以实现的。
每一次颠覆性的技术进步都需要更新规则——或者创造新的规则。SpaceX已经测试了降低星链星座影响的方法，亚马逊也透露了在任务完成后355天内让卫星脱离轨道的计划。不同利益攸关方的这些行动和其他行动让我充满希望，商业、科学和人类的努力将为这一潜在危机找到可持续的解决方案。
(免责声明:本文由美联社联合从对话。马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校的Supriya Chakrabarti。个人观点。)
It seems like every week, another rocket is launched into space carrying rovers to Mars, tourists or, most commonly, satellites<\/a>. The idea that \"space is getting crowded\" has been around for a few years now, but just how crowded is it? And how crowded is it going to get?
I am a professor of physics and director of the Center for Space Science and Technology<\/a> at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell. Many satellites that were put into orbit have gone dead and burned up in the atmosphere, but thousands remain. Groups that track satellite launches<\/a> don't always report the same exact numbers, but the overall trend is clear - and astounding.
Since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik - the first human-made satellite - in 1957, humanity has steadily been putting more and more objects into orbit every year. Over the the second half of the 20th century, there was a slow but steady growth, with roughly 60 to 100 satellites launched yearly until the early 2010s.
I am a professor of physics and director of the Center for Space Science and Technology<\/a> at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell. Many satellites that were put into orbit have gone dead and burned up in the atmosphere, but thousands remain. Groups that track satellite launches<\/a> don't always report the same exact numbers, but the overall trend is clear - and astounding.
Since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik - the first human-made satellite - in 1957, humanity has steadily been putting more and more objects into orbit every year. Over the the second half of the 20th century, there was a slow but steady growth, with roughly 60 to 100 satellites launched yearly until the early 2010s.
<\/div><\/div>But since then, the pace has been increasing dramatically.
By 2020, 114 launches carried around 1,300 satellites to space, surpassing the 1,000 new satellites per year mark for the first time. But no year in the past compares to 2021. As of Sept. 16, roughly 1,400 new satellites have already begun circling the Earth, and that will only increase as the year goes on. Just this week, SpaceX<\/a> deployed another 51 Starlink<\/a> satellites into orbit.
Small satellites, easy access to orbit<\/strong>
There are two main reasons for this exponential growth. First, it has never been easier to get a satellite into space. For example, on Aug. 29, 2021, a SpaceX rocket carried several satellites - including one built by my students - to the International Space Station. On Oct. 11, 2021, these satellites will deploy into orbit, and the number of satellites will increase again.
The second reason is that rockets can carry more satellites more easily - and cheaply - than ever before. This increase isn't due to rockets getting more powerful. Rather, satellites have gotten smaller thanks to the electronics revolution. The vast majority - 94% - of all spacecraft launched in 2020 were smallsats - satellites that weigh less than around 1,320 pounds (600 kilograms).
By 2020, 114 launches carried around 1,300 satellites to space, surpassing the 1,000 new satellites per year mark for the first time. But no year in the past compares to 2021. As of Sept. 16, roughly 1,400 new satellites have already begun circling the Earth, and that will only increase as the year goes on. Just this week, SpaceX<\/a> deployed another 51 Starlink<\/a> satellites into orbit.
Small satellites, easy access to orbit<\/strong>
There are two main reasons for this exponential growth. First, it has never been easier to get a satellite into space. For example, on Aug. 29, 2021, a SpaceX rocket carried several satellites - including one built by my students - to the International Space Station. On Oct. 11, 2021, these satellites will deploy into orbit, and the number of satellites will increase again.
The second reason is that rockets can carry more satellites more easily - and cheaply - than ever before. This increase isn't due to rockets getting more powerful. Rather, satellites have gotten smaller thanks to the electronics revolution. The vast majority - 94% - of all spacecraft launched in 2020 were smallsats - satellites that weigh less than around 1,320 pounds (600 kilograms).
<\/div><\/div>The majority of these satellites are used for observing Earth or for communications and internet. With a goal of bringing the internet to underserved areas of the globe, two private companies, Starlink by SpaceX and OneWeb<\/a> together launched almost 1,000 smallsats in 2020 alone. They are each planning to launch more than 40,000 satellites in the coming years to create what are called \"mega-constellations\" in low-Earth orbit.
Several other companies are eyeing this US$1 trillion market, most notably Amazon<\/a> with its Project Kuiper .
A crowded sky<\/strong>
With the huge growth in satellites, fears of a crowded sky are starting to come true. A day after SpaceX launched its first 60 Starlink satellites, astronomers began to see them blocking out the stars. While the impact on visible astronomy is easy to understand, radio astronomers fear they may lose 70% sensitivity in certain frequencies due to interference from satellite megaconstellations like Starlink.
Experts have been studying and discussing the potential problems posed by these constellations and ways the satellite companies could address them . These include reducing the number and brightness of satellites, sharing their location and supporting better image-processing software.
As low-Earth orbit gets crowded, concern about space debris increases, as does a real possibility of collisions.
Future trends<\/strong>
Less than 10 years ago, the democratization of space was a goal yet to be realized. Now, with student projects on the Space Station and more than 105 countries having at least one satellite in space, one could argue that that goal is within reach.
Every disruptive technological advancement requires updates to the rules - or the creation of new ones. SpaceX has tested ways to lower the impact of Starlink constellations, and Amazon has disclosed plans to de-orbit their satellites within 355 days after mission completion. These and other actions by different stakeholders make me hopeful that commerce, science and human endeavors will find sustainable solutions to this potential crisis.
(Disclaimer: This article is syndicated by AP from The Conversation. Supriya Chakrabarti, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Views are personal.)<\/em><\/strong>
<\/div><\/div>
Several other companies are eyeing this US$1 trillion market, most notably Amazon<\/a> with its Project Kuiper .
A crowded sky<\/strong>
With the huge growth in satellites, fears of a crowded sky are starting to come true. A day after SpaceX launched its first 60 Starlink satellites, astronomers began to see them blocking out the stars. While the impact on visible astronomy is easy to understand, radio astronomers fear they may lose 70% sensitivity in certain frequencies due to interference from satellite megaconstellations like Starlink.
Experts have been studying and discussing the potential problems posed by these constellations and ways the satellite companies could address them . These include reducing the number and brightness of satellites, sharing their location and supporting better image-processing software.
As low-Earth orbit gets crowded, concern about space debris increases, as does a real possibility of collisions.
Future trends<\/strong>
Less than 10 years ago, the democratization of space was a goal yet to be realized. Now, with student projects on the Space Station and more than 105 countries having at least one satellite in space, one could argue that that goal is within reach.
Every disruptive technological advancement requires updates to the rules - or the creation of new ones. SpaceX has tested ways to lower the impact of Starlink constellations, and Amazon has disclosed plans to de-orbit their satellites within 355 days after mission completion. These and other actions by different stakeholders make me hopeful that commerce, science and human endeavors will find sustainable solutions to this potential crisis.
(Disclaimer: This article is syndicated by AP from The Conversation. Supriya Chakrabarti, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Views are personal.)<\/em><\/strong>
<\/div><\/div>
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