Mumbai: Idea Cellular<\/a>, the third-largest telco in India, will be the worst hit by the 57% reduction in interconnect user charges starting next month, according to analysts<\/a>. Reliance Jio Infocomm, which paid the highest IUC charges till now, will be the biggest beneficiary, with a likely 76% push in its operating income by the year ending March 2019, they said Jio的收益可能会转化为更低的价格,引发另一个残酷的价格战就在行业据说即将复苏的最新成员不得不收费数据服务,瑞银称。Jio可能使用其储蓄增加塔和扩大其覆盖面,扩大4 g服务(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)说。 孟买:知道细胞印度的第三大电信,受灾最严重的互连用户费用减少57%从下个月开始,根据分析师。依赖Jio Infocomm,支付最高IUC费用直到现在,将是最大的受益者,76%可能推动其营业收入截至2019年3月的一年里,他们说
\n.
Jio’s gains may translate into lower prices, triggering another bruising price war just when the industry<\/a> was said to on the verge of a recovery with the latest entrant having to charge for its data services, UBS said. Jio may use its savings to add towers and widen its coverage and expand 4G services, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
\n
\nAnalysts were generally agreed that earnings for the top three telcos would take a hit following the cut in IUC.
\n
\nAccording to Fitch, the operating profit of Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and Vodafone India will decline by 3%-6% in the financial year ending March 2018, placing additional pressure on these companies facing unprecedented competition from Jio.
\n
\nIUC formed 9% to 15% of consolidated revenue for Bharti and Idea, according to CLSA analysts Deepti Chaturvedi and Akshat Agarwal, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. The fee reduction could cut fiscal year 2019 earnings by as much as 7%, they said in a note to clients.
\n
\nEarnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of Airtel and Idea Cellular will be hit by 4-7% in FY19 and up to 8-12% when the charge is
\nremoved from January 2020, said CLSA in its report.
\n
Competitive intensity will prevent any increase in tariffs by the older telcos to meet the shortfall in IUC revenue, thereby impacting EBITDA generation, ICRA<\/a> said in a release. It is estimated that the decline in EBITDA for the larger incumbents would be in the range of 5-12%.
\n
\nGoldman Sachs estimates that as a result of this cut, Bharti Airtel’s annual cash flow will take a dent of about Rs 965 crore ($150 million), although it’s free cash flow will remain positive in FY18\/19
\n
The company could stare at a 40% fall in profit after tax, Morgan Stanley<\/a> said.
\n
\nAccording to UBS, Sunil Mittal-owned Airtel’s net inter connectivity inflow was Rs 200-300 crore per quarter before the entry of Jio and reached Rs 600-700 crore in the past two quarters due to large incoming traffic from Jio.
\n
\nCredit Suisse said it is reducing its EBITDA estimate for Bharti by about 3%, with sharper earnings per share cuts.
\nKumar Mangalam Birla-owned Idea’s cash flow will fall by Rs 1,608.9 crore ($250 million) in FY18, Goldman Sachs estimated. Credit Suisse reduced its EBITDA estimate for Idea by about 3%.
\n
\nAnalysts differ in their estimates of how much Jio will gain and some including CLSA have said the boost to the EBIDTA in FY 19 for the Mukesh Ambani-owned company will be about 20%.
\n
\nThe IUC cut will adversely impact the larger telcos over the medium term and in the process benefit Reliance Jio, according to ICRA Ltd.
\n“The latest TRAI regulation is expected to translate into savings for RJio in terms of the IUC it had to pay to other operators – as per RJio’s financials, its IUC charges for FY2017 stood at Rs 2,589 crore, for around seven months of services,” said Harsh Jagnani, Sector Head and Vice President, Corporate Ratings, ICRA.
\n
\nIn the first quarter of FY18, interconnect costs for Jio stood at Rs 2,100 crore, said Morgan Stanley.
\nJio may even see an earlier-than-expected EBIDTA breakeven, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch. As per Goldman Sachs, Jio could add an additional Rs 1,285 crore-Rs 2,893 crore ($200-450 million) of EBITDA during FY18-20.
\n
\nThe move will result in a benefit of about Rs 3,214 crore-Rs 3,800 crore per year for Jio, said rating company Fitch.
\n“Jio might also use the potential savings to improve its coverage from current 120,000 towers to 160,000 and eventually to 200,000,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in its report. It added that there will be a push towards more VoLTE services.
\n
\nUBS said Jio is likely to pass on the savings from lower IUC in the form of lower prices, particularly for its 4G feature phone, where the current price of Rs 153 a month is higher than the industry average revenue per user (ARPU).
\n
\nJioPhone is the 4G feature phone offering VoLTE services that is expected to be the next disruptor, forcing rivals to scurry for tie-ups or launch their own similar devices. Some analysts said if Jio lowers tariffs, it will start another price war.
\n
\nCredit Suisse estimates Jio is spending Rs 30-40 per user currently on net termination outflows (out of customer receipts of Rs 133 per month). “This cost should go down significantly. We do not see the company passing on this fully to customers, but may take some cuts to current tariffs—or at least defer any plans to raise the current discounted tariffs,” it said.
\n
\nIdea Cellular shares fell and ended 3.4% lower at Rs 80.15 on the BSE on Wednesday. Airtel recovered after an initial dip and gained 1.6% to Rs 396.24 at the close.
\nReliance Industries, the parent of Jio, advanced 0.9% to Rs 847.10.
\nCredit Suisse lowered its share price target for Bharti Airtel to Rs 320 from Rs 330 and for Idea to Rs 70 from Rs 74. “We continue to stay cautious on the telecom stocks,” it said.
\n
\nApart from the immediate impact on EBITDA generation, the industry also faces the challenge of continuation of competitive intensity from Jio, given the headroom it will get from the IUC savings, ICRA said in a release.
\n
\nIn the longer run, the asymmetry in traffic between the larger incumbents and Jio is expected to reduce as the subscriber base gap between them narrows and this would negate the impact of lower IUC to some extent, it said.
\n
\nFurther, the scrapping of IUC from January 2020 implies that operators can charge for incoming voice minutes, although it is unlikely, given the extent of competition and continuous move towards lower pricing of voice.
\n
\n“This move is likely to keep the competitive intensity for the industry high and prolong the restoration of pricing power, a must for all operators to generate adequate return on investments,” said Jagnani of ICRA.<\/p><\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":60765118,"title":"BSNL trying to take on Reliance Jio by offering 1 GB data daily, calling at Rs 249?","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/bsnl-trying-to-take-on-reliance-jio-by-offering-1-gb-data-daily-calling-at-rs-249\/60765118","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":60767158,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Idea Cellular to be worst hit by IUC cut, say analysts","synopsis":"Jio\u2019s gains may translate into lower prices, triggering another bruising price war just when the industry was said to on the verge of a recovery with the latest entrant having to charge for its data services, UBS said. Jio may use its savings to add towers and widen its coverage and expand 4G services, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.","titleseo":"telecomnews\/idea-cellular-to-be-worst-hit-by-iuc-cut-say-analysts","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Devina Sengupta","author_link":"\/author\/479212895\/devina-sengupta","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479212895.cms?width=100&height=100","author_additional":{"thumbsize":false,"msid":479212895,"author_name":"Devina Sengupta","author_seo_name":"devina-sengupta","designation":"Senior Assistant Editor","agency":false}}],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ET Bureau","artdate":"2017-09-20 18:52:09","lastupd":"2017-09-20 18:54:13","breadcrumbTags":["Idea Cellular","analysts","ICRA","industry","Morgan Stanley"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/idea-cellular-to-be-worst-hit-by-iuc-cut-say-analysts"}}" data-authors="[" devina sengupta"]" data-category-name="" data-category_id="" data-date="2017-09-20" data-index="article_1">
知道细胞受IUC严重减少,分析师说
。
Jio的收益可能会转化为更低的价格,引发另一个残酷的价格战就在行业据说即将复苏的最新成员不得不收费数据服务,瑞银称。Jio可能使用其储蓄增加塔和扩大其覆盖面,扩大4 g服务(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)说。
分析师普遍认为,收益的三大电信运营商削减IUC后也将会遭受重重一击。
根据惠誉,Bharti Airtel的营业利润,想法细胞和沃达丰印度将下降3% - -6%在截至2018年3月的财政年度,将额外的压力从Jio这些公司面临着前所未有的竞争。
IUC形成综合收入的9%到15% Bharti和想法,据里昂证券分析师Deepti Chaturvedi Akshat Agarwal,彭博周三报道。费用减少可以减少2019财政年度收益高达7%,他们在给客户的报告中说。
利息、折旧、税收和摊销前收益(营业)Airtel和想法细胞会受到FY19 4 - 7%,充电时8 - 12%
从2020年1月,里昂证券在其报告中表示。
竞争强度将阻止任何增加关税由电信公司来满足缺口IUC收入,从而影响息税前利润的一代,ICRA在一份新闻稿中说。据估计,息税前利润下降更大的现任者将会在5 - 12%的范围。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计,由于伤口,Bharti Airtel的年度现金流将减少约965卢比(1.5亿美元),尽管它在FY18/19的自由现金流仍将是积极的
该公司可以盯着税后利润下降40%,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)说。
据瑞银(UBS)、苏尼尔Mittal-owned Airtel的净国际米兰连接流入之前每季度200 - 300卢比的Jio和达到600 - 700卢比在过去两个季度由于Jio大型的传入流量。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)说,这是减少其EBITDA预估Bharti约3%,大幅度地削减每股收益。
Kumar Mangalam Birla-owned想法的现金流将下降1608 .9卢比(合2.5亿美元)FY18,高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)想法的EBITDA估计减少了约3%。
分析师估计Jio将获得多少不同,一些包括里昂证券表示,提高在19日财政年度的营业穆克什Ambani-owned公司将约为20%。
IUC削减将不利影响更大的电信公司在中期内和在这一过程中受益信实Jio有限公司举行据“国际机器人与自动化会议”。
“最新火车监管将转化为储蓄RJio IUC已支付的其他运营商——按RJio的金融类股,其IUC收费FY2017站在2589卢比,大约7个月的服务,“严厉Jagnani说,部门主管和副总统。举行公司评级,“国际机器人与自动化会议”
第一季度FY18,互连成本Jio站在2100卢比,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)说。
Jio甚至可能看到一个提前的营业盈亏平衡,美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)说。根据高盛(Goldman Sachs) Jio可以添加一个额外的1285 crore-Rs 2893卢比(合200 - 450美元)的EBITDA FY18-20期间。
此举将导致效益每年约3214 crore-Rs 3800卢比Jio,评级公司惠誉说。
“Jio也可能使用的潜在储蓄,以改善其覆盖当前塔120000年到160000年,最终到200000年,”美国银行美林在报告中说。它补充说,将会有一个推动更回服务。
瑞银表示Jio可能把储蓄的形式从较低的IUC更低的价格,尤其是其4 g功能手机,目前每月153卢比的价格高于行业每用户平均收入(ARPU)。
JioPhone的4 g功能手机提供回服务预计将成为下一个粉碎机,迫使对手匆匆合作或推出自己的类似设备。一些分析师说,如果Jio降低关税,它将开始另一个价格战。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)估计Jio花费30 - 40卢比每用户目前终止净流出(客户每月133卢比的收入)。“这个成本应该显著下降。我们看不到公司这充分传递给客户,但可能需要一些削减目前的关税或至少推迟任何计划提高当前折扣关税,”它说。
知道细胞股价下跌,收低3.4%,报80.15 Rs周三疯牛病。Airtel恢复初始倾角和后上涨1.6%,至396.24卢比在接近。
信实工业(Reliance Industries)的母公司Jio,上涨0.9%,至847.10卢比。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)将其股价目标从Rs 330和Bharti Airtel Rs 320 Rs 70 Rs 74。“我们继续保持对电信股票持谨慎态度,”它说。
除了直接对息税前利润的影响,行业也面临着持续的挑战从Jio竞争强度,考虑到空间将从IUC储蓄,ICRA在一份新闻稿中说。
从长远来看,更大的在职者和之间的不对称在交通Jio预计将减少的用户基础差距缩小,这将抵消IUC减少的影响在某种程度上,它说。
此外,IUC从2020年1月的取消意味着运营商可以传入的声音分钟,虽然不太可能,鉴于竞争的程度和持续走向低定价的声音。
“此举很可能保持行业的竞争强度高和延长恢复定价权,所有运营商必须产生足够的投资回报率,“说Jagnani。举行的“国际机器人与自动化会议”
Mumbai: Idea Cellular<\/a>, the third-largest telco in India, will be the worst hit by the 57% reduction in interconnect user charges starting next month, according to analysts<\/a>. Reliance Jio Infocomm, which paid the highest IUC charges till now, will be the biggest beneficiary, with a likely 76% push in its operating income by the year ending March 2019, they said
\n.
Jio’s gains may translate into lower prices, triggering another bruising price war just when the industry<\/a> was said to on the verge of a recovery with the latest entrant having to charge for its data services, UBS said. Jio may use its savings to add towers and widen its coverage and expand 4G services, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
\n
\nAnalysts were generally agreed that earnings for the top three telcos would take a hit following the cut in IUC.
\n
\nAccording to Fitch, the operating profit of Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and Vodafone India will decline by 3%-6% in the financial year ending March 2018, placing additional pressure on these companies facing unprecedented competition from Jio.
\n
\nIUC formed 9% to 15% of consolidated revenue for Bharti and Idea, according to CLSA analysts Deepti Chaturvedi and Akshat Agarwal, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. The fee reduction could cut fiscal year 2019 earnings by as much as 7%, they said in a note to clients.
\n
\nEarnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of Airtel and Idea Cellular will be hit by 4-7% in FY19 and up to 8-12% when the charge is
\nremoved from January 2020, said CLSA in its report.
\n
Competitive intensity will prevent any increase in tariffs by the older telcos to meet the shortfall in IUC revenue, thereby impacting EBITDA generation, ICRA<\/a> said in a release. It is estimated that the decline in EBITDA for the larger incumbents would be in the range of 5-12%.
\n
\nGoldman Sachs estimates that as a result of this cut, Bharti Airtel’s annual cash flow will take a dent of about Rs 965 crore ($150 million), although it’s free cash flow will remain positive in FY18\/19
\n
The company could stare at a 40% fall in profit after tax, Morgan Stanley<\/a> said.
\n
\nAccording to UBS, Sunil Mittal-owned Airtel’s net inter connectivity inflow was Rs 200-300 crore per quarter before the entry of Jio and reached Rs 600-700 crore in the past two quarters due to large incoming traffic from Jio.
\n
\nCredit Suisse said it is reducing its EBITDA estimate for Bharti by about 3%, with sharper earnings per share cuts.
\nKumar Mangalam Birla-owned Idea’s cash flow will fall by Rs 1,608.9 crore ($250 million) in FY18, Goldman Sachs estimated. Credit Suisse reduced its EBITDA estimate for Idea by about 3%.
\n
\nAnalysts differ in their estimates of how much Jio will gain and some including CLSA have said the boost to the EBIDTA in FY 19 for the Mukesh Ambani-owned company will be about 20%.
\n
\nThe IUC cut will adversely impact the larger telcos over the medium term and in the process benefit Reliance Jio, according to ICRA Ltd.
\n“The latest TRAI regulation is expected to translate into savings for RJio in terms of the IUC it had to pay to other operators – as per RJio’s financials, its IUC charges for FY2017 stood at Rs 2,589 crore, for around seven months of services,” said Harsh Jagnani, Sector Head and Vice President, Corporate Ratings, ICRA.
\n
\nIn the first quarter of FY18, interconnect costs for Jio stood at Rs 2,100 crore, said Morgan Stanley.
\nJio may even see an earlier-than-expected EBIDTA breakeven, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch. As per Goldman Sachs, Jio could add an additional Rs 1,285 crore-Rs 2,893 crore ($200-450 million) of EBITDA during FY18-20.
\n
\nThe move will result in a benefit of about Rs 3,214 crore-Rs 3,800 crore per year for Jio, said rating company Fitch.
\n“Jio might also use the potential savings to improve its coverage from current 120,000 towers to 160,000 and eventually to 200,000,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in its report. It added that there will be a push towards more VoLTE services.
\n
\nUBS said Jio is likely to pass on the savings from lower IUC in the form of lower prices, particularly for its 4G feature phone, where the current price of Rs 153 a month is higher than the industry average revenue per user (ARPU).
\n
\nJioPhone is the 4G feature phone offering VoLTE services that is expected to be the next disruptor, forcing rivals to scurry for tie-ups or launch their own similar devices. Some analysts said if Jio lowers tariffs, it will start another price war.
\n
\nCredit Suisse estimates Jio is spending Rs 30-40 per user currently on net termination outflows (out of customer receipts of Rs 133 per month). “This cost should go down significantly. We do not see the company passing on this fully to customers, but may take some cuts to current tariffs—or at least defer any plans to raise the current discounted tariffs,” it said.
\n
\nIdea Cellular shares fell and ended 3.4% lower at Rs 80.15 on the BSE on Wednesday. Airtel recovered after an initial dip and gained 1.6% to Rs 396.24 at the close.
\nReliance Industries, the parent of Jio, advanced 0.9% to Rs 847.10.
\nCredit Suisse lowered its share price target for Bharti Airtel to Rs 320 from Rs 330 and for Idea to Rs 70 from Rs 74. “We continue to stay cautious on the telecom stocks,” it said.
\n
\nApart from the immediate impact on EBITDA generation, the industry also faces the challenge of continuation of competitive intensity from Jio, given the headroom it will get from the IUC savings, ICRA said in a release.
\n
\nIn the longer run, the asymmetry in traffic between the larger incumbents and Jio is expected to reduce as the subscriber base gap between them narrows and this would negate the impact of lower IUC to some extent, it said.
\n
\nFurther, the scrapping of IUC from January 2020 implies that operators can charge for incoming voice minutes, although it is unlikely, given the extent of competition and continuous move towards lower pricing of voice.
\n
\n“This move is likely to keep the competitive intensity for the industry high and prolong the restoration of pricing power, a must for all operators to generate adequate return on investments,” said Jagnani of ICRA.<\/p><\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":60765118,"title":"BSNL trying to take on Reliance Jio by offering 1 GB data daily, calling at Rs 249?","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/bsnl-trying-to-take-on-reliance-jio-by-offering-1-gb-data-daily-calling-at-rs-249\/60765118","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":60767158,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Idea Cellular to be worst hit by IUC cut, say analysts","synopsis":"Jio\u2019s gains may translate into lower prices, triggering another bruising price war just when the industry was said to on the verge of a recovery with the latest entrant having to charge for its data services, UBS said. Jio may use its savings to add towers and widen its coverage and expand 4G services, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.","titleseo":"telecomnews\/idea-cellular-to-be-worst-hit-by-iuc-cut-say-analysts","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Devina Sengupta","author_link":"\/author\/479212895\/devina-sengupta","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479212895.cms?width=100&height=100","author_additional":{"thumbsize":false,"msid":479212895,"author_name":"Devina Sengupta","author_seo_name":"devina-sengupta","designation":"Senior Assistant Editor","agency":false}}],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ET Bureau","artdate":"2017-09-20 18:52:09","lastupd":"2017-09-20 18:54:13","breadcrumbTags":["Idea Cellular","analysts","ICRA","industry","Morgan Stanley"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/idea-cellular-to-be-worst-hit-by-iuc-cut-say-analysts"}}" data-news_link="//www.iser-br.com/news/idea-cellular-to-be-worst-hit-by-iuc-cut-say-analysts/60767158">
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