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There has been a little bit of slowdown<\/a> in India<\/a>, part of which is cyclical and part of it is global, he told ET in an interview, adding that investors appreciate the macroeconomic stability in the country.
“I was surprised a little bit, coming over, by how people seem to have a negative view. Yes, India is not growing at 7.5%, it printed 5% in the second quarter, but the numbers still look very good,” said Gori, who is in India for the annual JP Morgan<\/a> India investment summit.
India’s GDP growth declined to a six-year low of 5% in April-June quarter, as worried consumers cut spending and investments remained muted. Gori said, in his view, the gloom and doom the world over is coming from geopolitical issues, which are weighing heavily on people's minds.
“When I go around our region, most of the investment conversations focus on geopolitics — what’s happening in the trade war<\/a> and Brexit<\/a>,” he said. “To me that’s what is driving that sentiment right now.”
At the start of the year, JP Morgan’s view was that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates four times. Instead, it has cut rates, once on Wednesday, and could do two more rest of the year, suggesting deep worries about the economy even as unemployment is at record low levels.
The ECB has reversed the conventional wisdom of where it was going and announced more quantitative easing, Gori said. “With the geopolitical issues, the trade war and Brexit<\/a>, you face quite strong headwinds.” He said within this broad view, there are areas and pockets where it is worth investing such as India, Brazil and Indonesia.
“India is within a group of bright spots where we think it’s worthwhile to keep investing,” said Gori and the bank is putting its own money on the table.
“We are expanding our commercial banking business in India to serve local mid-cap companies. So, we are investing further in the country because we believe that the macroeconomic fundamentals support that,” he added.
“The macroeconomic picture makes sense. The demographic picture of India makes a lot of sense. The technology sector and everything we see around payments makes a lot of sense. Stability of government. All of these things are why we are investing here,” he said, making a case for India.
Even if there is slowdown<\/a>, the strong macros mean India is not constrained.
“You have room for manoeuvre on the monetary side,” he said, pencilling in 50-60 basis points cut or even more from the RBI.
“That should help in the second part of the year or early next year to boost the economy again. So, you have that, which to me is incredible because other economies don’t have those tools,” he said, pointing out how the country was better placed then others because of low inflation, fiscal prudence, low current account deficit and high foreign exchange reserves.
“You have the monetary space to do things. On the fiscal side, you have been relatively disciplined, or actually quite disciplined, compared to other emerging market countries. And then if the government is willing and has the political capital to go and re-kickstart the economy, I don’t see why India cannot improve from here.”
He said the Indian currency<\/a> could weaken a little bit probably to ₹74.5 to a dollar in 12 months from now. While the equity market is not cheap but there are some sectors, for example, TMT, that are quite interesting.
Even in financials, the fee-based industries like asset management or insurance are doing quite well and investors are looking at it quite positively, he added. “India has some incredible fintech corporations and in general the tech sector in India is creating some of the unicorns of the future.”
Weighing in on the demand for fiscal discipline, he said if you look at other countries, you can see how sentiment can turn against you very quickly once you lose that discipline.
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有一点经济放缓在印度,其中部分是周期性的,它的一部分是全球性的,他在一次采访中告诉ET,投资者欣赏这个国家的宏观经济稳定。
”我很惊讶,过来,人们似乎有负面看法。是的,印度不是7.5%的速度增长,它打印第二季度的5%,但这些数字看起来仍然很好,“戈里说,他是在印度的年度摩根大通(JP Morgan)印度投资峰会。
印度的GDP增长下降至六年低点5% 4 - 6月季度,由于担心消费者削减支出和投资仍然疲软。戈里说,在他看来,世界各地的厄运来自地缘政治问题,这在很大程度上正在考虑人们的思想。
“当我走在我们地区的大部分投资对话集中在地缘政治——发生了什么贸易战争和Brexit,”他说。“对我来说这就是驾驶这一观点吧。”
在今年年初,JP摩根的观点是,美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)将提高利率的四倍。相反,它已经降息,一旦周三,剩下能做两个,建议深深的担忧经济尽管失业率正处于创纪录的低水平。
欧洲央行已经逆转的传统智慧,并宣布更多量化宽松政策,戈里说。“地缘政治问题,贸易和战争Brexit,你的脸很强劲阻力。”他说在这个广泛的观点,有些地区和口袋,值得投资,如印度、巴西和印尼。
“印度是在一群亮点,我们认为这是值得的投资,”戈里说,银行把自己的钱放在桌子上。
“我们正在扩大我们的商业银行业务在印度当地的中型企业。所以,我们进一步投资在国家宏观经济基本面支持,因为我们相信,”他补充道。
“宏观经济情况是有意义的。印度人口的照片很有意义。技术部门和我们看到的一切事物都很有意义。政府的稳定。这些东西都是我们为什么在这里投资,”他说,印度的理由。
即使有经济放缓宏强意味着印度并不是限制。
“你有余地在货币方面,”他说,用画笔画在50 - 60个基点从印度央行削减甚至更多。
“这应该有助于在今年或明年初的第二部分再次提振经济。你,这对我来说是不可思议的,因为其他经济体没有这些工具,”他说,并指出国家如何更好然后其他人因为低通货膨胀,财政审慎,低的经常账户赤字和高外汇储备。
“你有货币空间来做事情。在财政政策方面,相对严谨,或非常严格,相比其他新兴市场国家。如果政府愿意和有政治资本去re-kickstart经济,我不明白为什么印度不可能改善。”
他说,印度的货币可能会削弱一点点可能₹74.5美元在12个月内。虽然股市是不便宜但是有一些行业,例如,TMT,非常有趣。
即使在金融类股,收费等行业资产管理或保险和投资者正在关注的业务做得很好很积极,他补充说。“印度有一些令人难以置信的fintech一般企业和高科技行业在印度创造未来的独角兽。”
参与需求的财政纪律,他说如果你看看其他国家,你很快可以看到情绪可以反对你一旦你失去纪律。
