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In addition to trimming expenses, telecom operators will also look at monetisation of 5G, as well as 4G tariff hikes to make up for the high capex<\/a> in the last fiscal year<\/a>, they said.
“Large capex by (Reliance<\/a>) Jio and (Bharti) Airtel<\/a> has not translated into a large growth differential over VIL (Vodafone Idea<\/a>) and we think the industry<\/a> would look to rein in capex,” BNP Paribas<\/a> analysts said in a recent report.
With both Jio and Airtel having launched their 5G services<\/a> in the country, and both looking to expand the coverage extensively by March 2024, analysts expect capex to remain elevated this fiscal year as well and then start tapering.
VIL, on the other hand, has already been seeing a slowdown in capex for a few quarters now, since it continues to face liquidity woes, limiting its ability to invest in its 4G network<\/a>, and meaningfully launch 5G services.
This, analysts said, exposes VIL to further market share erosion.
“Capex (of Vi) remained meagre at Rs 560 crore (around 92% lower than Bharti’s India wireless capex) in 4Q. Vi’s market share losses continued, driven by lower network investments (versus peers),” Kotak Securities said.
VIL’s cumulative capex over the last three years of Rs 12,000 crore is also well below Airtel’s Rs 49, 600 crore, which could make it more difficult for the smallest of India’s three private telecom operators to defend its market share, BNP analysts said.
Since the tariff hikes in November-December 2021, the industry has witnessed increasing rotational churn leading to inflated SG&A costs for the telcos. This trend however seems to be tapering as well, since all three show a slowdown in customer acquisition costs. Rotational churn is where an existing customer leaves the network only to take a new connection on the same network in order to avail of offers available to new connections.
While VIL’s SG&A cost was down 2.5% on quarter in Q4, Airtel’s was 7.5% lower. Jio continued to see growth on this metric quarter-on-quarter, though the pace has slowed sequentially to 6% in Q4 from 12% in Q3.
VIL chief executive Akshaya Moondra had mentioned on the fourth-quarter earnings call that the industry was spending Rs 12,000-14,000 crore a year on customer acquisition, but this was not leading to any significant net additions to the overall wireless user base because of the rotational churn.
“This is consistent with our observations from our rural survey where we gathered that telcos have cut channel commissions on MNP (mobile number portability) and new SIM activations,” analysts from IIFL said.
Telcos are now paying around Rs 250-280 per port-in to retailers for MNP versus over Rs 300 some months back, the brokerage had observed in a previous report. Commissions on new SIM activations have also dropped to Rs 109-149 from Rs 179 a few months ago.
In addition to trimming costs, telcos are expected to drive 5G monetisation, while pushing for 4G tariff hikes, to start recovery of investments made towards 5G expansion and network infrastructure.
“With rapid rollouts of 5G infrastructure, we expect operators to look for ways to monetise the high capex incurred in FY23 by raising tariffs for 4G services and ARPU (average revenue per user) lift from 5G subscribers,” analysts from BNP Paribas said.
With the effects of the November 2021 price hike having rolled through, the fiscal fourth-quarter revenue growth for the sector slowed to 9%, less than half the levels of recent quarters, even as higher data usage, and higher minimum plan prices failed to impact revenues in a meaningful way.
“We think this makes it clear to the industry that another price rise is due, and expect the government to encourage a price rise to help repair the sector that it is a major creditor and owner of,” Deutsche Bank said.
However, there is no timeline on the next round of tariff hikes as the 2024 general election looms. Analysts have said that for VIL to benefit meaningfully, a 20% hike in tariffs is the minimum required, and allow it to invest in 5G.
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Jio, Airtel,沃达丰的想法可能会减缓资本支出从明年财政
“大型资本支出(依赖)Jio和(Bharti Airtel)没有翻译成一个大增长差距在维尔(沃达丰的想法),我们认为该行业会控制资本支出,”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师在最近的一份报告中说。
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除了削减开支,电信运营商也会看看5 g的货币化,以及4 g弥补高税率资本支出在过去财政年度,他们说。
“大型资本支出(依赖)Jio和(Bharti)附近的旅馆没有翻译成一个大增长差距在维尔(沃达丰的想法),我们认为行业会抑制资本支出。”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师在最近的一份报告中说。
Jio和Airtel发动了5 g服务在这个国家,都希望扩大覆盖面广泛的截至2024年3月,分析师预计本财政年度资本支出继续升高然后开始逐渐减少。
维尔,另一方面,已经看到了几个季度的资本支出放缓,因为它仍面临流动性危机,限制其投资的能力4 g网络,和有意义的发射5 g服务。
分析师表示,这暴露了维尔进一步市场份额流失。
“资本支出(Vi)仍然微薄的560卢比(约92%低于印度Bharti的无线资本支出)4 q。Vi的市场份额持续亏损,由较低的网络投资(与同行),”科塔克证券说。
维尔的累积资本支出在过去三年的12000卢比也远低于Airtel的49岁的Rs 600卢比,这可能会更难印度最小的三个私人电信运营商来捍卫自己的市场份额,法国巴黎银行分析师表示。
自2021年11 - 12月刊的关税上涨,行业已经目睹了增加旋转波动导致膨胀的电信公司的销售成本。然而这一趋势似乎逐渐减少,因为所有三个显示放缓客户获取成本。旋转搅拌就是现有的顾客离开网络只有采取一个新的连接在同一个网络为了利用提供新的连接。
虽然维尔的销售成本下降了2.5%在第四季度的季度,Airtel的低7.5%。Jio继续看到这个指标环比增长,尽管速度顺序已经放缓6%,第四季度从第三季度的12%。
维尔首席执行官Akshaya Moondra第四季度财报电话会议上提到了行业每年支出12000 - 14000卢比客户收购,但这并不是导致任何重要的净增加的整体无线用户因为旋转搅动。
“这与我们的观察是一致的从我们的农村调查我们收集,电信公司削减渠道佣金MNP(手机号码可移植性)和新的SIM卡激活,“从IIFL分析师说。
电信公司现在支付每港口Rs 250 - 280左右为MNP零售商与Rs 300几个月回来,经纪公司已经观察到以前的报告。佣金新的SIM卡激活也降至Rs 109 - 149从Rs 179几个月前。
除了削减成本,电信公司将推动5 g的货币化,同时推动4 g关税上涨,开始恢复对5 g的投资扩张和网络基础设施。
“快速开展5 g的基础设施,我们预计运营商寻求套现的高资本支出发生FY23通过提高关税4 g服务和ARPU(每用户平均收入)电梯从5 g用户,”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的分析师说。
2021年11月涨价的影响有滚,部门的第四财季收入增长放缓至9%,不到一半的水平最近几个季度,尽管较高的数据使用,提高计划的最低价格未能影响收入以一种有意义的方式。
“我们认为,这很清楚另一个价格上涨是由于该行业,并期望政府鼓励价格上涨来帮助修复领域的主要债权人和所有者,”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)说。
然而,是没有时间限制的下一轮的关税上调为2024年大选迫在眉睫。分析人士说,对维尔效益显著,电费上涨20%是最低要求,并允许它投资5 g。
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