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伯恩斯坦:Jio有潜力释放2万亿美元的市场机会

从我们的角度来看,投资电信显然是为了Jio平台。


Jio在新冠疫情期间获得的资金种类令人难以置信。Jio平台有近10-15项服务,他们有近50亿美元的总潜在市场伯恩斯坦分析师,Rahul Malhotra在互动中。

让我们了解一下信实的前景ARPU潜在以及你如何看待他们的服务收入,因为你认为它可能在未来三年内翻一番?
看看他们取得了什么成就。他们在新冠疫情期间收到的资金令人难以置信。Jio平台拥有近10-15项服务,涵盖所有服务,他们拥有近50亿美元的总目标市场。从我们的角度来看,围绕零售电子商务、支付和内容OTT的核心服务是他们潜在关注的一个大市场;这是一个接近2万亿美元的市场,包括电子商务机会、零售机会、OTT内容以及从支付角度来看的平台。

在美国和中国之后,印度显然是一个相当有吸引力的市场,对于来自美国和中东的所有这些全球投资者来说,这是一个接近6亿互联网用户和近7亿智能手机用户的市场。我认为,这整个2万亿美元的市场机会的释放,让许多投资者兴奋地关注Jio平台的机会。当我们将其与美国和中国进行比较时,我们会发现那些以平台为导向并围绕其构建平台的玩家往往会占据大量市场份额。我们看到亚马逊在美国的份额为40%。我们已经看到阿里巴巴中国拥有60%的电子商务市场。这推动了一个非常强大的数字广告市场和一个非常强大的支付市场;阿里巴巴的持股比例均超过50%。

从我们的角度来看,投资电信显然是为了Jio平台。这是核心业务所在,也是大量投资进入的基础,但新应用程序或新生态系统所推动的附加价值正在围绕零售商业、支付生态系统以及OTT和广告支出建立起来,这是相当独特的,这是一个非常大的机会。对于投资者来说,在未来五年内看到一个非常强大的市场份额的建立是很有趣的。

的潜力是什么Jio平台在未来的四五年里赚多少钱?
我认为这很重要。到2025年,电子商务零售市场规模将达到1.2万亿美元。支付市场将是另一个重要的市场,规模达7000亿美元。OTT广告市场规模将接近1000亿美元。因此,除了无线和移动机会之外,还有一个潜在的巨大机会,随着生态系统的发展,他们在整个平台和整个电子商务市场上建立了整个货币化,他们在JioMart上与基拉那商店合作,这是一个拥有3000万家基拉那商店的巨大机会。如果他们能够在很大程度上渗透并将所有这些基拉那商店数字化,并大规模地建立JioMart平台,那么可以预计,在未来五年内,除电信外的整个Jio平台也将成为整个收入潜力或货币化潜力的相当重要的一部分。

考虑到电子商务的机会,我们认为这将是一个1300 - 1400亿美元的市场,在支付方面也有机会。这是一种拥有的能力脸谱网作为合作伙伴,他们带来了技术、能力,并为拥有基拉纳商店的小企业提供消息和登录服务。当交易发生时,他们可以通过Whatsapp Pay管理整个交易。因此,我认为很多货币化引擎必须启动,显然,随着这项业务的执行,现在还处于早期阶段,但我认为在未来五年内,这将是整个Jio平台故事的很大一部分。

你认为华尔街会给出什么样的市盈率?
我认为利润率会随着时间的推移而上升,如果你看到并与中国的阿里巴巴等平台进行比较,他们的EBITDA接近25-30%。所以这些是人们可以从整个能力集或从长期角度建立的平台集来看的相似之处。但同样,一旦开始执行,我们将其与美国的亚马逊(Amazon)进行比较,当他们用电子商务模式构建广告模式时,我们将中国市场与腾讯(Tencent)和阿里巴巴(Alibaba)等大型平台进行比较。

因此,你可能会看到一个相当强劲的利润状况,因为你在很大程度上启动了电子商务,并将广告收入集中起来,因为品牌开始潜在地使用整个基拉纳商店网络。我认为利润率增长绝对是可能的,从Jio移动的情况来看,你可能会看到阿里巴巴在中国的利润率非常高,亚马逊在美国的利润率也非常高。所以我认为,如果执行得好,显然是有可能扩大的。

你认为2024-25年的每股收益会如何?
我手头没有,但它推动收益的方式显然是,当电子商务和其他一些平台业务开始建立时,整个移动无线角度将继续推动大部分收益。所以最初会有一些投资在这些模型上。因此,盈利能力和盈利指标需要时间来制定,但我认为,从更长期的角度来看,在五年的基础上,如果你看看这个模式,我们相信这两者的盈利都会有相当强劲的增长依赖作为Jio平台业务的一部分。所以我认为这取决于执行的方式。

在全球范围内,我们看到一些纯粹从事电子商务的企业,以及平台业务,利润率非常高,因为你可以接触到4 -5亿用户,另一方面,你在电子商务上拥有非常强大的网络,拥有基拉纳商店,有效地推动了很大的盈利潜力,这通常是一个利润率很高的业务。因此,我们不深入研究确切的数字,但我们相信,从现在开始,利润率增长的潜力非常大。

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The kind of funding that Jio have received during the Covid times is incredible. The Jio Platform has close to 10-15 services that they have across and they have close to $5 billion plus total addressable market, said Bernstein<\/a> analyst, Rahul Malhotra<\/a><\/strong> in an interaction.
<\/em>
Give us a sense as to what the outlook is on RIL\u2019s
ARPU potential<\/a> as well as how you see their services revenues as you are of the view that it could double in the next three years?
<\/strong>Look at what they have achieved. The kind of funding that they have received during the Covid times is incredible. The Jio platform has close to 10-15 services that they have across all of the services and they have close to $5 billion plus total addressable market. From our view the core services around retail e-commerce, around payments, around the content OTT we believe is a large market that they potentially are looking at; which is close to a $2 trillion market across the e-commerce opportunity, retail opportunity, the OTT content as well as the platform from a payments perspective.

India obviously is a fairly attractive market after the US and China and for all of these global investors from the US and the Middle East, it is an opportunity to tap a market which is close to 600 million internet users, close to 700 million smartphone users. I think this entire unlocking of a $2 trillion market opportunity is what excites a lot of these investors to look at the Jio Platform opportunity. When we compare that to global parallels in the US and China, what comes out is that players that are platform-oriented and building platforms around it tend to take a lot of market share. We have seen Amazon in the US do 40%. We have seen
Alibaba<\/a> in China having a 60% e-commerce market. That has driven a very strong digital advertising market as well as a very strong payments market; both being 50% plus for Alibaba.

From our perspective, the investment in telecom obviously is for the Jio Platform. That is where the core business is and that is the floor for a lot of these investments coming in but the additional value that is going to be driven from the new apps or new ecosystem is getting built around retail commerce around, payments ecosystems and as well as the OTT and the advertising spends is fairly unique and that makes a very large opportunity. It is interesting for the investors to look at this and over the next five years see a very strong market share build up.