In 217 BC, the Roman dictator Fabius Maximus conceived a novel strategy in the war with Carthage. His opponent, Hannibal<\/a>, had won several devastating battles, and the Roman people were ready to try something different. 生成人工智能的计算要求高得不可思议。分析开源软件类似驱动器Bing的chatbot或谷歌巴德估计晚上11¢查询的成本,根据艾伦·里特,佐治亚理工学院的计算机教授。 公元前217年,罗马独裁者费边马克西姆斯想出一个新策略与迦太基战争。他的竞争对手,汉尼拔,赢了几场毁灭性的战役,罗马人准备尝试不一样的东西。
Fabius knew Hannibal liked to fight and had the military power to do so effectively. Instead of meeting Carthage head on, Fabius studiously avoided large confrontations.
He sent small attack units to bait Carthaginian troops into unfavorable situations and then wage havoc by destroying their food supply or by simply finding ways to prolong Carthage’s march. That ended up costing Hannibal’s large army far more in resources than it did Rome.
They didn’t have chatbots in 217 BC, but there are parallels with today’s battle between Microsoft<\/a> Corp. and Google<\/a>.
The search war has never been much of a competition between the two companies, but it’s a profitable one. Executing a web search is fairly cheap, and the ads account for most of Google’s $283 billion in annual revenue. Microsoft managed to turn a profit on Bing, too, more than seven years ago, despite its tiny market share.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google stands to lose a lot more if there were a fundamental shift in how people search for things on the internet<\/a>. That shift isn’t a given. Developing a competent, reliable chatbot is expensive. Potentially even more costly is the ongoing expense of people interacting with the product.
The computational demands of generative artificial intelligence are exorbitantly high. An analysis of open-source software similar to what drives Bing’s chatbot or Google Bard estimates the cost of a query at 11¢, according to Alan Ritter<\/a>, a computing professor at Georgia Tech<\/a>.
What exactly it costs Google or Microsoft is a secret. They have their own cloud infrastructures that can be optimized to work more efficiently with their proprietary chatbots, said Ritter, who studies natural language processing.
Sam Altman, a Microsoft ally who runs the startup behind ChatGPT<\/a>, has only said it’s “probably single-digits cents per chat.” Morgan Stanley<\/a> estimated the cost of a ChatGPT query at a more palatable 2¢. Even that is a steep premium to a traditional web search, which can be done for a fraction of a penny, Ritter said.
Perhaps a chatbot becomes so accurate that Google or Microsoft will be able to justify a substantial increase in advertising rates. That hasn’t happened.
If every web search were to suddenly switch to a chatbot conversation tomorrow, Bing’s margins would suffer, but Alphabet’s would take an absolute beating. Even in a scenario where Google appears to win, it actually loses.
This is where the Fabian strategy comes into play. For more than a decade, Microsoft’s Bing has run a traditional battle plan on Google, with paltry results. Now the hype around Microsoft’s chatbot is ratcheting up pressure on Google to match it — likely at a great cost to the company.
Meanwhile, the Bing chatbot is only available to a limited number of people — there’s still a wait list — and in a limited way — on a search engine few people use, within a similarly unpopular Microsoft web browser or in an update rolling out to Windows 11.
A creative interpretation of the strategy is that Microsoft isn’t competing to be the No. 1 search engine but that it’s attempting to reimagine aspects of search in a way that’s less lucrative for everyone — effectively luring Google into little skirmishes it won’t win. The question is whether Google engages. It has said it’ll release its own chatbot but hasn’t committed to building it into search results in the way Microsoft has.
It sure sounds like Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella<\/a> hopes Google takes the bait, though. “They’re the 800-pound gorilla,” Nadella said in an interview with the Verge. “And I hope that, with our innovation, they will definitely want to come out and show that they can dance. And I want people to know that we made them dance.”
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微软的新人工智能与谷歌将公司数十亿美元的成本
费边知道汉尼拔喜欢战斗,军事力量有效地这样做。而不是会议迦太基,费边刻意避免对抗。
打发小攻击单位诱饵迦太基军队进入不利的情况下,然后工资破坏破坏他们的食物供应或只是想办法延长迦太基的游行。最终成本汉尼拔的大比罗马军队更多的资源。
搜索战争从来没有这两家公司之间的竞争,但这是一个有利可图的一个。执行一个搜索相当便宜,和谷歌的广告占大多数的每年2830亿美元的收入。微软必应设法盈利,也比七年前,尽管其微小的市场份额。
字母Inc .)谷歌站失去更多的如果有一个根本性转变人们如何寻找的东西互联网。这种转变不是一个给定的。开发能力,可靠的chatbot是昂贵的。可能更昂贵的是人们的持续的费用与产品的交互。
生成人工智能的计算要求高得不可思议。分析开源软件类似驱动器Bing的chatbot或谷歌巴德估计晚上11¢查询的成本,根据艾伦里特计算教授佐治亚理工学院。
究竟这成本谷歌或微软是一个秘密。他们有自己的云基础设施,可以优化与自营聊天机器人工作更有效率,里特说,他研究自然语言处理。
微软盟友山姆·奥特曼背后的启动运行ChatGPT只说这是“可能的个位数美分/聊天。”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估计的成本更容易2¢ChatGPT查询。即使这是一个陡峭的溢价传统网络搜索,可做一分钱的一小部分,里特说。
也许聊天机器人变得如此准确,谷歌或微软能够证明广告费率大幅增加。这并没有发生。
如果每个网页搜索明天突然切换到一个聊天机器人对话,Bing的利润率将受到影响,但字母需要绝对的跳动。即使在一个场景,谷歌似乎赢了,实际上失去了。
这是费边策略发挥作用的地方。十多年来,微软的必应在谷歌上运行传统的作战计划,微不足道的结果。现在炒作微软的chatbot从而对谷歌与增大压力,可能给公司造成巨大的损失。
同时,Bing的chatbot只有数量有限的人,还有一个等待列表,在一个有限的方式——在一个搜索引擎很少人使用,在一个同样不受欢迎的微软网络浏览器或更新推出Windows 11。
创意战略的解释是,微软并没有竞争第一的搜索引擎,但它是试图重新定义方面的搜索,对每个人来说都不赚钱的——实际上吸引谷歌成小冲突不会赢。问题在于,谷歌吸引。它说它会释放自己的chatbot但没有致力于建设成微软搜索结果的方式。
听上去像微软首席执行官萨提亚Nadella不过,希望谷歌的诱饵。“他们800磅重的大猩猩”,Nadella边缘在一次采访中说。“我希望,我们的创新,他们肯定会想出来证明他们可以跳舞。我想让人们知道我们跳舞。”
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In 217 BC, the Roman dictator Fabius Maximus conceived a novel strategy in the war with Carthage. His opponent, Hannibal<\/a>, had won several devastating battles, and the Roman people were ready to try something different.
Fabius knew Hannibal liked to fight and had the military power to do so effectively. Instead of meeting Carthage head on, Fabius studiously avoided large confrontations.
He sent small attack units to bait Carthaginian troops into unfavorable situations and then wage havoc by destroying their food supply or by simply finding ways to prolong Carthage’s march. That ended up costing Hannibal’s large army far more in resources than it did Rome.
They didn’t have chatbots in 217 BC, but there are parallels with today’s battle between Microsoft<\/a> Corp. and Google<\/a>.
The search war has never been much of a competition between the two companies, but it’s a profitable one. Executing a web search is fairly cheap, and the ads account for most of Google’s $283 billion in annual revenue. Microsoft managed to turn a profit on Bing, too, more than seven years ago, despite its tiny market share.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google stands to lose a lot more if there were a fundamental shift in how people search for things on the internet<\/a>. That shift isn’t a given. Developing a competent, reliable chatbot is expensive. Potentially even more costly is the ongoing expense of people interacting with the product.
The computational demands of generative artificial intelligence are exorbitantly high. An analysis of open-source software similar to what drives Bing’s chatbot or Google Bard estimates the cost of a query at 11¢, according to Alan Ritter<\/a>, a computing professor at Georgia Tech<\/a>.
What exactly it costs Google or Microsoft is a secret. They have their own cloud infrastructures that can be optimized to work more efficiently with their proprietary chatbots, said Ritter, who studies natural language processing.
Sam Altman, a Microsoft ally who runs the startup behind ChatGPT<\/a>, has only said it’s “probably single-digits cents per chat.” Morgan Stanley<\/a> estimated the cost of a ChatGPT query at a more palatable 2¢. Even that is a steep premium to a traditional web search, which can be done for a fraction of a penny, Ritter said.
Perhaps a chatbot becomes so accurate that Google or Microsoft will be able to justify a substantial increase in advertising rates. That hasn’t happened.
If every web search were to suddenly switch to a chatbot conversation tomorrow, Bing’s margins would suffer, but Alphabet’s would take an absolute beating. Even in a scenario where Google appears to win, it actually loses.
This is where the Fabian strategy comes into play. For more than a decade, Microsoft’s Bing has run a traditional battle plan on Google, with paltry results. Now the hype around Microsoft’s chatbot is ratcheting up pressure on Google to match it — likely at a great cost to the company.
Meanwhile, the Bing chatbot is only available to a limited number of people — there’s still a wait list — and in a limited way — on a search engine few people use, within a similarly unpopular Microsoft web browser or in an update rolling out to Windows 11.
A creative interpretation of the strategy is that Microsoft isn’t competing to be the No. 1 search engine but that it’s attempting to reimagine aspects of search in a way that’s less lucrative for everyone — effectively luring Google into little skirmishes it won’t win. The question is whether Google engages. It has said it’ll release its own chatbot but hasn’t committed to building it into search results in the way Microsoft has.
It sure sounds like Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella<\/a> hopes Google takes the bait, though. “They’re the 800-pound gorilla,” Nadella said in an interview with the Verge. “And I hope that, with our innovation, they will definitely want to come out and show that they can dance. And I want people to know that we made them dance.”
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