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NEW DELHI: India’s telecom industry, once a beacon of economic growth, will find it difficult to attract new investors — foreign or local — even though a new policy<\/a> promises stability and envisages $100 billion of inflows in the next four years, experts said.
According to Vodafone<\/a>’s former India managing director Marten Pieters, US brokerage Sanford C Bernstein and ratings company Fitch<\/a>, an uncertain regulatory environment, hyper-competition and continuous erosion of profit have made foreign investors wary about the local telecom services market.
“This (present day Indian telecom market) does not look like an attractive environment for (foreign) investors or new Indian investors,” said Pieters, who headed Vodafone<\/a> India from 2009 and 2015 and is now based in London.
Chris Lane, senior research analyst at Bernstein in Hong Kong, said, “Hypercompetition, falling profits and constantly changing regulatory environment in Indian telecom segment makes most (foreign investors) shy away.”
The comments come after the Indian government unveiled the draft of its new telecom policy<\/a> — the National Digital Communications Policy<\/a> 2018 — in May, which lays out plans to attract investments of $100 billion by 2022, create 4 million additional jobs and enhance the sector’s contribution to 8% of India’s GDP from about 6% in 2017. The investment target includes the development of a digital ecosystem to be driven by the transition to 5G technology.
“We see limited new investments in the intensely competitive market of Indian wireless industry… We believe that the new telecom policy<\/a> will likely play a limited role in new investments,” said Nitin Soni, director of corporates at Fitch<\/a> Ratings in Singapore.
In the new policy, the Department of Telecommunications plans to price spectrum optimally, review levies such as licence fees and spectrum usage charges, ease the exit of companies and take a fresh look at spectrum sharing, leasing and trading guidelines, all longstanding industry demands.
“The government has a role to play to make investment in the industry attractive. But that is not what I have seen in my years in India. Look at all the cases that go to court and end up in litigation,\" said Pieters, who is on the board of Vodafone India, which is merging with Idea Cellular<\/a>.
“But given the experience of all the foreign investors to date, I doubt any are seriously looking at the market. The only investors that might put more money are Jio, Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Vodafone\/Idea Cellular” to protect their existing investments, Lane said.
A recent media report said international telecom companies had lost over $30 billion in the past 10 years in India. A JM Financial report estimated total loss of investments at over $44.5 billion, including those of Tatas, Saudi Arabia’s Etisalat and Bahrain’s Batelco.
Lane added that changing the way spectrum is farmed out and dramatically reducing cost of spectrum would be a good first step to encourage more long-term investment. “China gives away spectrum for free but expects investment in quality networks. The Indian government has historically constrained supply to achieve high prices for spectrum… and then bemoans the fact that operators don’t have the money to invest as much,” said Lane.
A senior industry executive who recently held talks with sovereign wealth funds of Hong Kong and Singapore said that investors were keen to know where the Indian telecom market was headed.
“Most of them (investors) are saying that we’ll watch and wait, while some of them who have taken major positions are considering whether they should get out or stay in,” the executive told ET, asking not to be identified.
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新德里:印度的电信行业,一旦经济增长的灯塔,将很难吸引新的投资者,外国或地方——即使一个新的政策承诺稳定和设想在未来四年1000亿美元的资金流入,专家说。
根据沃达丰(Vodafone)印度的前董事总经理彼得貂,美国券商Sanford C Bernstein和评级公司惠誉一个不确定的监管环境,超竞争和持续的侵蚀利润让外国投资者担心当地的电信服务市场。
“这(今印度电信市场)看上去不像一个有吸引力的环境(外国)投资者或新印度投资者,”彼得说,他领导沃达丰(Vodafone)印度从2009年和2015年,现在在伦敦。
高级研究分析师克里斯•莱恩伯恩斯坦在香港,说,“Hypercompetition、利润下滑和不断变化的监管环境在印度电信市场大部分(外国投资者)羞。”
此前,印度政府公布了新草案电信政策——全国数字通信政策2018年5月,列出了计划吸引投资的1000亿美元,到2022年,额外创造400万个工作岗位,并提高部门的贡献占印度GDP的8%从2017年的约6%。投资目标包括开发数字生态系统的过渡到5 g技术。
“我们看到有限竞争激烈市场的新投资的印度无线产业…我们相信新的电信政策可能会在新投资发挥有限的作用,“Nitin索尼说,企业主管惠誉在新加坡的评级。
新政策,电信部计划价格频谱,审查等征收执照费和频谱使用费用,减轻企业的退出,重新审视频谱共享、租赁和交易的指导方针,长期以来的行业要求。
“政府扮演的角色做出投资行业的吸引力。但这并不是我所看到的在我年的印度。看看所有的情况下,去法院,最终在诉讼,”彼得说,他是董事会的沃达丰印度,这是合并知道细胞。
“但考虑到体验的所有外国投资者到目前为止,我怀疑有认真看市场。唯一的投资者,可能是Jio投入更多的钱,Bharti Airtel和沃达丰/细胞”来保护他们的现有投资,莱恩说。
最近媒体报道说,国际电信公司已经失去了超过300亿美元在过去10年里在印度。JM财务报告估计总损失的投资超过445亿美元,其中包括再见,沙特阿拉伯阿联酋电信和巴林巴林。
Lane说,改变频谱是养殖的方式,大幅降低成本的频谱是一个很好的鼓励更多长期投资的第一步。“中国质量免费赠送谱但预计投资网络。印度政府历来限制供应来实现高频谱价格…然后惋惜,运营商没有钱投资,”莱恩说。
行业高管最近举行了会谈香港和新加坡的主权财富基金表示,投资者想知道印度电信市场。
“大多数人(投资者)说,我们将观察和等待,虽然他们中的一些人采取了重要职位正在考虑他们是否应该出去或呆在“行政告诉等,要求不透露姓名。
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