映射出Paytm金融途径在一个场景,在该场景中,它仍然是一个占主导地位的数字支付球员在接下来的10年,Damodaran认为,即使有良好的假设,一个合理的估值的股票将在196亿美元左右。
智能手机的发展彻底改变了印度商业和Paytm一直是主要的受益者。当t…https://t.co/6UFLzMRWhM
本;Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran)1633384099000
The growth of smartphones has revolutionized Indian commerce, and Paytm has been one of the key beneficiaries. As t\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/6UFLzMRWhM<\/p>— Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran) 1633384099000<\/a><\/blockquote><\/div>
Damodaran, who has conducted detailed valuation analyses of high-profile firms globally, including food delivery firm Zomato<\/a>, said that Paytm\u2019s dominant position in India\u2019s digital payments market coupled with its history of losses would widely split opinions on its rightful valuation.
\u201cOn one side, there will be some who view a value of close to $20 billion (Rs 1,50,000 crore) for a company with a pittance in revenues, a history of operating losses and distracted management as insanity. On the other side, there will be some who feel that I am not giving the company credit for all of the new businesses it can enter, using its vast platform of users, and thus undervaluing the company,\u201d said Damodaran.
<\/div><\/div>He added that a wide range of uncertainty in Paytm\u2019s business model, and assumptions about its ability to maintain its dominance makes it a stock that should be bought with a certain degree of caution.
\u201cNeedless to say, if I invested in Paytm, it would not only have to be at the right price, i.e., trading at less than [Rs 1,50,000 crore], but also with the acceptance that this cannot be a passive (buy and hold) investment, but one that will require active engagement and monitoring of the company's actions and performance,\u201d he wrote.
The assessment comes at a time when Paytm is planning to raise $2.2 billion from the public market in what is set to be India's largest IPO in more than a decade. The offer is expected to be launched by the end of this month or in early November. Paytm is learnt to be seeking a valuation of at least $24 billion, which could go up to $30 billion, ET has previously reported.
Damodaran, in making his valuation assessment of Paytm, takes into consideration several metrics of Paytm\u2019s and India\u2019s smartphone and digital payments growth over the past decade. He also assesses growth trajectories of various legacy and growth-stage global fintech companies such as Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Square, Shopify and Ant Financial.
\u201cThe value story for Paytm starts with a large and growing digital payment market in India, one that has surged over the last four years, and is expected to increase five-fold over the next five years, as the smartphone penetration rate rises for India and more merchants accept mobile payments,\u201d said Damodaran.
He listed four financial challenges which Paytm is likely to face once its stocks face public scrutiny. These are: a dwindling GMV in a company's revenue share, its ability to generate profits, performance of its reinvestments and acquisitions, and its cost of capital along with its cash burn rate.
\u201cA few weeks ago, when I valued Zomato, I argued that it was a joint bet on the company's continued dominance of the food delivery market and the growth in the Indian restaurant\/food delivery business. Paytm is also a joint bet on an early entrant into the Indian mobile payment market, continuing to maintain market share, in a growing digital payment market in India,\u201d Damodaran said.
\u201cThat said, the companies have very different business models, with Zomato's 20%-plus take of every dollar spent on its platform vastly exceeding Paytm's less than 1% take of every dollar spent on its platform. They are both big market bets, but the Paytm bet is much more dependent on management figuring out a way to grow, while improving take rates at the same time,\u201d he added.
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