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In Deven Choksey, MD, KRChoksey Investment Managers, talks about stocks<\/a> and sectors that are hogging limelight these days. Excerpts:-<\/em>\n
\nET Now: What are your thoughts on the market? The earnings pain has just about started.<\/strong>
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\nDeven Choksey: <\/strong>The week gone by was not very pleasant. It reminded everyone about the 2008 kind of a period, where we saw a complete carnage in the month of January. But, this is not something which is looking like 2008 for sure. That is one statement which I would like to put up first straight away.
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\nOn the contrary, if you analyse the kind of reasons behind the market fall, they were largely to do with the payment of losses that the investors\/traders have incurred in other asset classes, other markets of the world. They were forced to pay up and that is where they started selling some of the profitable positions that they held.
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Honestly, there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of either the market, or the economy<\/a>. On the contrary if at all one wants to put across, this is probably one of the strongest fundamental sides of the economy that India could ever experience. That is where one would like to believe that going forward it has to get translated into corporate earnings. Corporate results from IT majors, from private sector banks even from HUL<\/a> announced last week were quite encouraging.
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What is more encouraging is the commentary<\/a> and the confidence of the management of these companies, which have basically suggested that things are only looking up as far as the business environment<\/a>, is concerned. Therefore, on one side, traders\/investors have lost values but on the other side, certainly the situation is appearing to be better as far as earnings outlook is concerned.
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\nET Now: I want to get your opinion on Infosys. The numbers were great but how much of the good news is already in the price? Now that Infosys is more valuable than TCS and it has broken this record after a long gap of about three years?<\/strong>
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\nDeven Choksey: <\/strong>There are many positives for Infosys which are there in store but are not fully reflected into the company's fundamentals and the performance. The most important one would be that acquisitions that the company has made in the recent past, which are likely to turn profitable. They are likely to contribute systematically into the companies working. So that is one such point, which probably the market wants to see. On the other side, the companies distinctive working on the management and the cost, which is also getting reflect into the margin, give you the confidence that going forward the earnings would be also coming up from the efficiency-led margins.
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\nThe third most important aspect is the organic growth possibilities in the company. With the cash and appetite that Infosys has, I would only think that in the falling levels from the global market, probably they may end up acquiring some of the target companies at much bargain values. Most importantly, I would think the company would continue focusing on artificial intelligence digital and cloud computing. That is where one would feel that the company's business model would remain strong. All in all, I think that the company deserves to be rerated now, given the emerging situation, which is far stronger than what ever before probably the stock appears to get rerated. I do not know how much upside one can talk about in the near term, but certainly I would think that every correctional fall would invite buying interest into this counter.
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\nET Now: What is happening with the entire oil and gas space? We saw an outperformance even from a BPCL<\/a> and, of course, on Reliance Industries<\/a> ahead of its numbers. Is it now time to start bottom-fishing into these names?<\/strong>
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\nDeven Choksey: <\/strong>I am distinctly comfortable with the falling oil prices. It is probably giving you an opportunity to buy into companies like Reliance Industries because gross refining margins (GRMs) in this particular quarter is expected to be at record high levels. Our calculation says that GRMs could come in the vicinity of around $11.6 to a barrel, which is going to be the record high. If you look at the company from that perspective, it is looking much more comfortable.
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\nOn the other side, if you look at the petrochemical and polymer segments, where the delta effect is going to play positive role along with the volume growth, to my mind, Reliance would be in a better position in these segments along with the expanded capacity. The Reliance Jio roll out commentary could be distinctly taking the stock to a different level, a better level. Put together, within the basket, Reliance looks the most interesting stock to have in the portfolio. Select OMCs may look relatively better compared to the upstream companies like ONGC. Certainly, I would like to concentrate on them. But at the same time, the preference would be more on to Reliance Industries vis-à-vis the otherwise.
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\nET Now: I want to know about the banking pack, considering the RBI is sort of whipping the stick on a cleanup act by the banking pack, a fair amount of fear out there in terms of what the NPAs state is going to be by PSBs, in particular, and vicious selling coming in the banking names. Are they anywhere close to bottom or all the weakness being already in the price or do you think this is just the start of it?<\/strong>
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\nDeven Choksey: <\/strong>I would like to imagine that everything is priced today. Now probably, a bank like State Bank of India is quoting at one time or below one time price-to-book value. I cannot imagine the kind of valuations at which the stock is quoting at. Maybe, it is somewhat over exaggeration. A fear psychosis possibly is catching up the minds of the people. Some amount of profit position unloading has already started which could possibly result in fall in select banking stocks. My own take is that at least the large size banks like SBI deserve to be rerated. They deserve to be better placed.
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\nI do not see too much of a pain in large banks vis-à-vis from the mid and small-sized banks where I continue to believe that they would have to pass through some of the correcting phase. But certainly private sector banks and quality franchise like SBI remain relatively better off in the prevailing entire environment. So yes, buying at the lows in the fall definitely demands distinct amount of attention at this point of time.
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\nET Now: Your words on midcap names suggest there is a lot more pain left, is not it?<\/strong>
\nDeven Choksey: <\/strong>To a greater extent, some of the midcap offloading happened in the week gone by due to unwinding of positions by large ETFs. That unwinding has extended the damage to some of the profitable positions, which the traders were holding in the domestic market. It probably pushed them to fill up the mark to market.
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\nThey had to selloff those shares. To my mind, fundamentally select companies within the midcap basket are better placed. But unfortunately, due to the technical reasons, due to the requirement of fulfilling the losses elsewhere, traders are selling them. That is where you are getting them at attractive valuations. I would think that instead of looking southwards at this point of time, select midcaps do offer good opportunity and those who trade and those who buy at lows, for them, it is a good time to add stocks into the portfolio. That said, the approach would be very selective.
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在德文Choksey博士KRChoksey投资经理,谈论股票这些日子和部门占用聚光灯下。摘录:
外星人:市场上你的想法是什么?收益的疼痛还仅仅是开始。
德文Choksey:这个星期过去了不是很愉快。它提醒每个人对2008年的一段时间内,我们看到了一个完整的大屠杀在一月份。但是,这不是看起来像2008。这是一个声明,我希望先把。
相反,如果你分析市场下跌的原因,他们在很大程度上与支付投资者的损失/交易员在其他资产类别发生,世界其他市场。他们被迫支付,这就是他们开始销售的一些盈利的头寸。
说实话,没什么错的市场的基本面,或经济。相反如果一想,这可能是最强的一个基本的经济,印度能体验。这就是一个愿意相信未来它转化为企业盈利。企业业绩的专业,甚至从私营部门银行户上周宣布相当鼓舞人心的。
更令人鼓舞的是是什么评论和这些公司的管理的信心,已基本上认为事情只是查找业务环境,是担心。因此,一方面,交易员和投资者已失去价值,但另一方面,当然这种情况似乎是更好的盈利前景而言。
外星人:我想要得到你的意见在印孚瑟斯。的数字是伟大的但多少好消息已经在价格吗?乐动扑克现在,印孚瑟斯比TCS更有价值,它打破了这个记录经过长时间的差距大约三年?
德文Choksey:印孚瑟斯有很多优点,在商店,但不能完全反映到公司的基本面和性能。最重要的是,收购,该公司已经在最近的过去,这很可能将有利可图。他们可能会造成系统进入公司工作。这就是一个这样的点,可能市场希望看到。另一方面,企业独特的管理工作和成本,也反映到边缘,给你信心,未来的收益也会从efficiency-led利润率。
第三个最重要的方面是有机增长的可能性。印孚瑟斯的现金和欲望,我只会认为在全球市场的水平下降,可能他们最终可能会收购一些目标公司的交易价值。最重要的是,我认为该公司将继续专注于人工智能数字和云计算。这就是人会觉得公司的商业模式将会保持强劲。总而言之,我认为该公司应该rerated现在,鉴于新兴的情况,这远比以往任何时候都可能rerated股票出现。我不知道有多少好处在短期内可以讨论,但我认为每一个矫正会邀请到这个柜台购买兴趣。
等现在:什么是发生在整个石油和天然气的空间吗?我们甚至看到一个优胜的BPCL当然,信实工业公司领先的数字。现在是时候开始抄底进入这些名字?
德文Choksey:我完全适应油价下跌。这可能是给你一个机会买到这样的公司信实工业总值因为炼油利润率(grm)在这个季度有望在纪录高位水平。我们的计算说,克可能会在附近的每桶11.6美元,也就是纪录高位。如果你看看公司从这个角度来看,它看起来更舒服。
另一方面,如果你看看石化和聚合物段,δ效应在哪里随着销量增长发挥积极的作用,在我看来,依赖会在一个更好的位置在这些领域与扩展能力。信实Jio推出评论可能截然不同级别的股票,一个更好的水平。放在一起,在篮子内,依赖看起来最有趣的股票的投资组合。选择OMCs看起来相对比上游公司,如印度石油天然气公司。当然,我想专注于他们。但与此同时,偏好更信实工业相对于其他。
等现在:我想知道银行包,考虑到央行的搅拌棒的清理行动的银行包,相当数量的恐惧的npa状态是由公安局,特别是和恶性出售银行的名字。接近底部还是所有的弱点已经在价格或你认为这只是开始的吗?
德文Choksey:我想想象一切都是今天的价格。现在可能,银行像印度国家银行是引用一次或低于账面价值。我无法想象这样的估值的股票报价。也许,这是有点夸张。恐惧精神病可能正在迎头赶上的人的思想。一些利润位置卸载已经开始选择下降可能导致银行股。我自己的看法是,至少在印度国家银行等大型银行值得rerated。他们应该被更好的放置。
我也看不出太多的疼痛从中期大型银行相比,小型银行,我继续相信他们会通过一些纠正阶段。但肯定私营部门银行和质量业务像印度国家银行的整个环境中保持相对更好。是的,在低位买秋天绝对要求截然不同的注意力在这一点上的时间。
等现在:你的话中市值名称建议有更多疼痛离开,不是吗?
德文Choksey:在更大程度上,一些中型股卸载本周发生了由于解除头寸的etf。解除已经延长了损伤的一些盈利的头寸,这些交易员持有的国内市场。它可能把他们填补市场的标志。
他们不得不抛售这些股票。在我看来,根本上选择公司在中型股篮子是更好的。但不幸的是,由于技术原因,由于损失的要求履行其他地方,交易员出售它们。这就是你让他们有吸引力的估值。我认为,而不是向南看这一点的时候,选择做中盘股提供良好的机会和那些贸易和那些在低点买入,对他们来说,这是一个很好的时间来增加股票投资组合。也就是说,会非常有选择性的方法。
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