\n\n\t“A steep decline in data realisations coupled with gradual growth in consumption volumes could lower the data ARPUs. Data ARPUs have been growing led by growth in per capita volumes consumed which is offsetting the declining data realizations,” the agency said in a note.\n
\n\n\tThe proposed 4G launch will intensify competition which will squeeze the market share, EBITDA margins and credit metrics of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, the agency said, adding that Reliance Jio will look to unsettle some of the large operators in their prominent geographies, leading to a re-distribution of the market share which is currently concentrated among the top three operators.\n
\n\n\tAirtel is the market leader of the Indian telecom market with revenue market share and subscriber market share of around 30% and 24%, respectively. Idea on the other hand has been witnessing robust growth thus catching up to Vodafone which is at the second place. The three operators together cater to around 60% of the total telecom subscribers while they hold more than 67% of the revenue market share.\n
\n\n\tThe agency said that voice revenue are likely to remain moderate in FY17 on stagnant minutes of usage (MoU) and further competition in call realisations. It expects data revenue to remain stagnant on a 30%-40% decline in data realisations\/megabyte in FY17 driven by RJio’s launch, while support from data consumption growth to data average revenue per user will be gradual.\n
\n\n\tThe operators’ debt profile will deteriorate in FY17 as the agency expects them to incur high capex on network expansion and acquisition of additional spectrum through trading, largely to compete with Reliance Jio.\n
\n\n\tIn the third quarter FY16, data realisations\/megabyte declined by 4.5%-5.5% sequentially for the top two listed entities Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular. “This price decline was in anticipation of the RJio launch, and therefore expects a further softening of data tariffs in FY17. 8%-10% qoq growth in data volumes consumption shall not be sufficient to support data average revenue per users which shall therefore moderate in FY17,” the agency said.\n
\n\n\tInd-Ra expects voice revenue to decline in FY17 due to market maturity and competitive pricing. MoU and voice revenue are flattish as the voice market has matured.\n
\n\n\tAirtel and Idea reduced voice tariffs by 8%-10% over 2015 to arrest declining minutes of usage (MoU) and to counter competition. Voice also faces threat from data cannibalization, the agency said.\n
\n\n\tInd-Ra expects the credit metrics of operators to stretch in FY17. They are likely to increase investments in FY17 to upgrade, install and augment network capability, sensing a long-term opportunity in broadband and threat from RJio.\n
\n\n\tWhile the operators would upgrade their infrastructure to meet data requirement, they would also be required to install new infrastructure to roll-out newer technologies. They shall also follow debt-driven acquisitions of further spectra to augment their holdings.\n
\n\n\tSpectrum will drive consolidation in the sector in line with the long-term roll-out plans of these operators. “The recent guidelines allowing spectrum sharing and trading transactions within industry participants is a positive move for the sector as smaller players will be able to monetise their spectrum assets while bigger players enhance their spectrum holdings,” the agency reckons.\n
\n\n\t It added that a few spectrum trading deals were reported in FY16 which will gain further momentum in FY17.\n
\n
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数据依赖Jio 4 g启动一个主要威胁关税,价格可能会破坏数据
提出的4 g发射会加剧竞争将挤压市场份额,EBITDA利润率和信贷指标Bharti Airtel,沃达丰印度和细胞,该机构说。
新德里:穆克什Amabni-owned依赖Jio的发射4 g服务是一个主要威胁数据关税,这可能会破坏数据定价,导致数据实现。软化30%以上FY17目前水平的-40%,据印度的评级和研究(Ind-Ra)。
“急剧下降的数据实现。加上逐渐增长的消费卷arpu可以降低数据。数据arpu增长由人均消费量的增长抵消下降数据实现,”该机构在一份报告中说。
提出的4 g发射会加剧竞争将挤压市场份额,EBITDA利润率和信贷指标Bharti Airtel,沃达丰印度和细胞,该机构说,并补充说依赖Jio会扰乱一些大型运营商的著名的地理位置,导致的一种再分配市场份额目前集中在三大运营商。
Airtel的市场领导者是印度电信市场收入市场份额和用户市场份额约30%和24%,分别。想法另一方面已经目睹强劲增长从而赶上沃达丰是第二名。三个运营商一起迎合电信用户总数的60%左右时持有超过67%的收入市场份额。
该机构说,语音收入可能仍是温和FY17停滞的分钟的使用(MoU)和进一步的竞争实现。。预计数据收入仍停滞在30%下降-40%数据实现。/字节FY17由RJio的发射,而支持数据消费增长数据每用户平均收入将是循序渐进的。
运营商的债务状况会恶化在FY17机构预计他们招致高资本支出网络扩张和收购额外的频谱通过交易,主要与信实Jio竞争。
第三季度FY16、数据实现。/字节顺序下降了4.5% - -5.5%的细胞最主要的两个实体Bharti Airtel和想法。“这是RJio发射的预期价格下降,因此预计数据关税FY17进一步软化。数据量增长8% - -10%不可小觑不得足以支持消费数据每用户平均收入,因此在FY17温和,”该机构说。
FY17 Ind-Ra预计语音收入下降由于市场成熟度和有竞争力的价格。谅解备忘录和语音收入稍平的的声音市场已经成熟。
Airtel和想法降低声音关税下降8% -10% 2015逮捕分钟的使用(MoU)和应对竞争。声音从数据自相残杀,也面临着威胁。
Ind-Ra预计运营商的信贷指标在FY17伸展。他们可能会增加投资FY17升级,安装和增加网络功能,感知RJio宽带的长期机会和威胁。
而运营商将升级他们的基础设施,以满足数据需求,他们也会要求安装新的基础设施来推出新技术。他们还应当遵循大举收购进一步的光谱,以增加其持有。
频谱将推动行业整合符合这些运营商的长期推广计划。“最近的指导方针允许频谱共享和产业内贸易事务参与者对该行业是一个积极的举动,小公司能够将频谱资产变现而大的球员提高频谱控股,”该机构估计。
它补充说,一些频谱交易交易被报道在FY17 FY16这将进一步上涨势头。
“急剧下降的数据实现。加上逐渐增长的消费卷arpu可以降低数据。数据arpu增长由人均消费量的增长抵消下降数据实现,”该机构在一份报告中说。
提出的4 g发射会加剧竞争将挤压市场份额,EBITDA利润率和信贷指标Bharti Airtel,沃达丰印度和细胞,该机构说,并补充说依赖Jio会扰乱一些大型运营商的著名的地理位置,导致的一种再分配市场份额目前集中在三大运营商。
Airtel的市场领导者是印度电信市场收入市场份额和用户市场份额约30%和24%,分别。想法另一方面已经目睹强劲增长从而赶上沃达丰是第二名。三个运营商一起迎合电信用户总数的60%左右时持有超过67%的收入市场份额。
该机构说,语音收入可能仍是温和FY17停滞的分钟的使用(MoU)和进一步的竞争实现。。预计数据收入仍停滞在30%下降-40%数据实现。/字节FY17由RJio的发射,而支持数据消费增长数据每用户平均收入将是循序渐进的。
运营商的债务状况会恶化在FY17机构预计他们招致高资本支出网络扩张和收购额外的频谱通过交易,主要与信实Jio竞争。
第三季度FY16、数据实现。/字节顺序下降了4.5% - -5.5%的细胞最主要的两个实体Bharti Airtel和想法。“这是RJio发射的预期价格下降,因此预计数据关税FY17进一步软化。数据量增长8% - -10%不可小觑不得足以支持消费数据每用户平均收入,因此在FY17温和,”该机构说。
FY17 Ind-Ra预计语音收入下降由于市场成熟度和有竞争力的价格。谅解备忘录和语音收入稍平的的声音市场已经成熟。
Airtel和想法降低声音关税下降8% -10% 2015逮捕分钟的使用(MoU)和应对竞争。声音从数据自相残杀,也面临着威胁。
Ind-Ra预计运营商的信贷指标在FY17伸展。他们可能会增加投资FY17升级,安装和增加网络功能,感知RJio宽带的长期机会和威胁。
而运营商将升级他们的基础设施,以满足数据需求,他们也会要求安装新的基础设施来推出新技术。他们还应当遵循大举收购进一步的光谱,以增加其持有。
频谱将推动行业整合符合这些运营商的长期推广计划。“最近的指导方针允许频谱共享和产业内贸易事务参与者对该行业是一个积极的举动,小公司能够将频谱资产变现而大的球员提高频谱控股,”该机构估计。
它补充说,一些频谱交易交易被报道在FY17 FY16这将进一步上涨势头。
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