NEW DELHI: Reliance Jio<\/a> Infocomm could emerge as the biggest telecom operator in fiscal year beginning April 1, a period which is unlikely to see the return of adequate pricing power for the financially stricken industry<\/a>, said India Ratings<\/a> and Research. 新德里消息:依赖JioInfocomm可以成为最大的电信运营商财政年度从4月1日开始,一段时间内不太可能看到返回适当的定价能力的经济受损行业说,印度的评级和研究。
“RJio’s dominance will increase as it would continue to seize market share in terms of both subscribers and revenue from Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Vodafone-Idea and eventually emerge as the largest telecom player in the industry,” the research agency has said in its release Thursday.
“The pricing recovery in 2019-20 is unlikely to be sufficient to compensate for the revenue loss witnessed in the preceding two years,” it added, while giving an outlook for the upcoming financial year.
The outlook for the year explains how, given the continued capex commitments, refinancing requirements would remain high for all the players. “As a result, free cash flows would remain negative in 2019-20. The aggregate net debt of Bharti, Voda-Idea and RJio at end-of the current financial year is estimated to be around Rs 3 trillion, implying net leverage of over 6x for the sector,” owing to which, it said the telecom operators will continue to require equity infusion and asset monetisation to deleverage their balance sheets.
The report further says that the focus of operators will eventually shift to average revenue per user (ARPU) from subscriber market share.
“The share of 4G subscribers, who offer higher ARPU, will be a critical profitability indicator and revenue market share will evolve accordingly,” according to the report which also says that revenue growth would be uneven across telcos and RJio is positioned to outperform peers.
The agency also highlighted that overall subscriber growth will remain muted in the next financial year, or it could even witness a decline, as the dual-SIM nature of the market changes to single SIM with ARPUs trudging upwards.
“The ARPU is likely to improve over the second half of the next financial year as the minimum recharge plans launched by Bharti and Voda-Idea will weed out low ARPU customers,” the report explained.
However, the agency feels that 5G spectrum auctions might get a lukewarm response from the sector since the ecosystem for it hadn’t yet taken-off.
“In 2019-20, the industry may not witness active participation in 5G spectrum auctions because of several reasons such as companies having other capex priorities, the immature ecosystem for 5G, and already stretched leverage profiles,” therefore, the report feels any disruption from 5G was unlikely in near term.
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“RJio将增加的主导地位将继续抢占市场份额从Bharti的用户和收入附近的旅馆Vodafone-Idea,最终成为行业最大的电信的球员,”研究机构周四在其新闻稿中说。
“2019 - 20的定价复苏不太可能足以弥补收入损失目睹了前两年,”它补充道,同时给予一个展望即将到来的财政年度。
报告进一步指出,运营商将最终的重点转向每用户平均收入(ARPU)从用户市场份额。
“4 g的共享用户,提供更高的ARPU,将是一个关键的盈利能力指标和收入市场份额也将相应得到发展,”据报道也说,收入增长将不均匀在电信公司和RJio定位优于同行。
该机构还强调整体用户增长将保持温和在下一财政年度,它甚至可以见证一个下降,随着市场变化的双卡性质单一SIM arpu向上跋涉。
“ARPU可能在下半年提高下一个财政年度最低充电计划发起Bharti Voda-Idea ARPU淘汰低客户”报告解释道。
然而,该机构认为5 g频谱拍卖可能会回应冷淡以来的行业生态系统还没有起飞。
“在2019 - 20,该行业可能不证人积极参与5 g频谱拍卖,因为几个原因如公司有其他资本支出的优先级,5 g的不成熟的生态系统,并且已经延伸利用档案,“因此,报告认为任何中断从5 g在短期内不太可能。
NEW DELHI: Reliance Jio<\/a> Infocomm could emerge as the biggest telecom operator in fiscal year beginning April 1, a period which is unlikely to see the return of adequate pricing power for the financially stricken industry<\/a>, said India Ratings<\/a> and Research.
“RJio’s dominance will increase as it would continue to seize market share in terms of both subscribers and revenue from Bharti Airtel<\/a> and Vodafone-Idea and eventually emerge as the largest telecom player in the industry,” the research agency has said in its release Thursday.
“The pricing recovery in 2019-20 is unlikely to be sufficient to compensate for the revenue loss witnessed in the preceding two years,” it added, while giving an outlook for the upcoming financial year.
The outlook for the year explains how, given the continued capex commitments, refinancing requirements would remain high for all the players. “As a result, free cash flows would remain negative in 2019-20. The aggregate net debt of Bharti, Voda-Idea and RJio at end-of the current financial year is estimated to be around Rs 3 trillion, implying net leverage of over 6x for the sector,” owing to which, it said the telecom operators will continue to require equity infusion and asset monetisation to deleverage their balance sheets.
The report further says that the focus of operators will eventually shift to average revenue per user (ARPU) from subscriber market share.
“The share of 4G subscribers, who offer higher ARPU, will be a critical profitability indicator and revenue market share will evolve accordingly,” according to the report which also says that revenue growth would be uneven across telcos and RJio is positioned to outperform peers.
The agency also highlighted that overall subscriber growth will remain muted in the next financial year, or it could even witness a decline, as the dual-SIM nature of the market changes to single SIM with ARPUs trudging upwards.
“The ARPU is likely to improve over the second half of the next financial year as the minimum recharge plans launched by Bharti and Voda-Idea will weed out low ARPU customers,” the report explained.
However, the agency feels that 5G spectrum auctions might get a lukewarm response from the sector since the ecosystem for it hadn’t yet taken-off.
“In 2019-20, the industry may not witness active participation in 5G spectrum auctions because of several reasons such as companies having other capex priorities, the immature ecosystem for 5G, and already stretched leverage profiles,” therefore, the report feels any disruption from 5G was unlikely in near term.
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