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NEW DELHI: Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Jio<\/a> facing addressable market challenges when it comes to acquiring new users, leading to a slowdown in net active subscriber addition, Kotak<\/a> Institutional Securities said in a note.
\n
\n\"Even as Jio’s free offerings meant shift in usage from and decline in revenues for all operators, TRAI’s February 2017 subscriber report suggests that incumbents continue to see healthy net active sub adds, and challengers are losing ground even quicker... subscriber share, while an important metric to track, is not the most important variable however. Most important is how the industry revenue curve shapes up and that depends solely on Jio’s pricing approach; this remains aggressive for now,\" the agency said.
\n
\nThe 4G entrant ended Feb 2017 with 76 million active subs, up 7.2 million month-over-month. It had added an average of 13.7 mn active subs per month since launch in Sep 2016. Kotak noted that the slowdown in net adds pace for Jio is happening on expected line. \"We see this slowdown as natural noting 4G device base limitations that Jio has to contend with.\"
\n
As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's February subscriber report, India had 1.16 billion mobile subscribers<\/a> at end-Feb 2017 while the VLR (active) subscriber base stood at 1.01 billion. Reported and active subs base for the three incumbents combined stood at 671 million and 655 million, respectively.
\n
More importantly, Jio launch has not had any impact on the pace of active sub additions for the incumbents. The BVI (Bharti, Vodafone<\/a>, Idea) composite has added 28 million active subscribers since end-Aug 2016 or between September 2016 to February 2017), an increase from 14 million active sub additions over the previous six-month period (February 2016 to August 2016).
\n
\nKotak noted that despite being lured by Jio through free offerings since its commercial launch in September 2016, customers continue to stay active on incumbents’ networks. \"
\n
\nKotak said that a very few of these customers have ported out of incumbents’ networks to Jio. \"This observation is corroborated by Jio’s own press releases that continue to suggest port-ins (to Jio) only in ‘lakhs’ (one lakh = 0.1 mn), and most of these customers continue to maintain some (perhaps materially lower than earlier) spends on the incumbents’ networks,\" it added.
\n
\n\"We note here that incumbents have the most stringent churn norms in the industry as reflected in their active subs ratios – Feb 2017 active subs ratio was 97.2% for Bharti, 94.5% for Vodafone and 101.4% for Idea versus 86.8% for the industry and 73.6% for Reliance Jio,\" Kotak further noted.
\n
\nKotak said that customers who have taken a Jio sim continue to use the incumbent networks does indicate that there is some inherent or possibly legacy and coverage value that the customers continue to see in incumbent networks. \"Shift in usage (to Jio sims) was natural as incumbents (rightly) did not try to fight Jio’s free offerings (given that free is the only way to fight free). Now that Jio has moved to ‘charged’ offerings, however aggressive, incumbents have a chance to gain back some of the lost usage and spends,\" it said.
\n
\nIncumbent telecom operators continue to dominate the ‘natural’ net adds to the industry subscriber base. Kotak said that these first-time-wireless-users are typically low-end and are not addressable market for Jio’s 4G-only offering.
\n
\nKotak said that price cuts forced by Jio have made incumbents attractive, versus challengers, for low end customers. This is perhaps driving a higher share of ex-Jio net adds for the incumbents. We note that the BVI composite’s ex-Jio VLR market share stood at 70.1% at end-Feb 2017, an all-time high (up 400 bps since Feb 2016 and 300 bps since Jio launch),\" it added.<\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":58489513,"title":"Phone as a deemed export: Edit","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/phone-as-a-deemed-export-edit\/58489513","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":58489918,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Reliance Jio sees slowdown in net active user addition due to addressable market challenges: Kotak","synopsis":"Reliance Jio ended Feb 2017 with 76 million active subs, up 7.2 million month-over-month. It had added an average of 13.7 mn active subs per month since launch in Sep 2016. Kotak noted that the slowdown in net adds pace for Jio is happening on expected line","titleseo":"telecomnews\/reliance-jio-sees-slowdown-in-net-active-user-addition-due-to-addressable-market-challenges-kotak","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Danish Khan","author_link":"\/author\/479206691\/danish-khan","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479206691.cms?width=100&height=100&hostid=268","author_additional":{"thumbsize":true,"msid":479206691,"author_name":"Danish Khan","author_seo_name":"danish-khan","designation":"Senior Editor","agency":false}}],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ETTelecom","artdate":"2017-05-03 10:19:05","lastupd":"2017-05-03 10:25:53","breadcrumbTags":["Reliance Jio","Airtel","Vodafone","Kotak","Idea Cellular","subscribers","3G\/4G"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/reliance-jio-sees-slowdown-in-net-active-user-addition-due-to-addressable-market-challenges-kotak"}}" data-authors="[" danish khan"]" data-category-name="" data-category_id="" data-date="2017-05-03" data-index="article_1">
\"\"
\n
NEW DELHI: Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Jio<\/a> facing addressable market challenges when it comes to acquiring new users, leading to a slowdown in net active subscriber addition, Kotak<\/a> Institutional Securities said in a note.
\n
\n\"Even as Jio’s free offerings meant shift in usage from and decline in revenues for all operators, TRAI’s February 2017 subscriber report suggests that incumbents continue to see healthy net active sub adds, and challengers are losing ground even quicker... subscriber share, while an important metric to track, is not the most important variable however. Most important is how the industry revenue curve shapes up and that depends solely on Jio’s pricing approach; this remains aggressive for now,\" the agency said.
\n
\nThe 4G entrant ended Feb 2017 with 76 million active subs, up 7.2 million month-over-month. It had added an average of 13.7 mn active subs per month since launch in Sep 2016. Kotak noted that the slowdown in net adds pace for Jio is happening on expected line. \"We see this slowdown as natural noting 4G device base limitations that Jio has to contend with.\"
\n
As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's February subscriber report, India had 1.16 billion mobile subscribers<\/a> at end-Feb 2017 while the VLR (active) subscriber base stood at 1.01 billion. Reported and active subs base for the three incumbents combined stood at 671 million and 655 million, respectively.
\n
More importantly, Jio launch has not had any impact on the pace of active sub additions for the incumbents. The BVI (Bharti, Vodafone<\/a>, Idea) composite has added 28 million active subscribers since end-Aug 2016 or between September 2016 to February 2017), an increase from 14 million active sub additions over the previous six-month period (February 2016 to August 2016).
\n
\nKotak noted that despite being lured by Jio through free offerings since its commercial launch in September 2016, customers continue to stay active on incumbents’ networks. \"
\n
\nKotak said that a very few of these customers have ported out of incumbents’ networks to Jio. \"This observation is corroborated by Jio’s own press releases that continue to suggest port-ins (to Jio) only in ‘lakhs’ (one lakh = 0.1 mn), and most of these customers continue to maintain some (perhaps materially lower than earlier) spends on the incumbents’ networks,\" it added.
\n
\n\"We note here that incumbents have the most stringent churn norms in the industry as reflected in their active subs ratios – Feb 2017 active subs ratio was 97.2% for Bharti, 94.5% for Vodafone and 101.4% for Idea versus 86.8% for the industry and 73.6% for Reliance Jio,\" Kotak further noted.
\n
\nKotak said that customers who have taken a Jio sim continue to use the incumbent networks does indicate that there is some inherent or possibly legacy and coverage value that the customers continue to see in incumbent networks. \"Shift in usage (to Jio sims) was natural as incumbents (rightly) did not try to fight Jio’s free offerings (given that free is the only way to fight free). Now that Jio has moved to ‘charged’ offerings, however aggressive, incumbents have a chance to gain back some of the lost usage and spends,\" it said.
\n
\nIncumbent telecom operators continue to dominate the ‘natural’ net adds to the industry subscriber base. Kotak said that these first-time-wireless-users are typically low-end and are not addressable market for Jio’s 4G-only offering.
\n
\nKotak said that price cuts forced by Jio have made incumbents attractive, versus challengers, for low end customers. This is perhaps driving a higher share of ex-Jio net adds for the incumbents. We note that the BVI composite’s ex-Jio VLR market share stood at 70.1% at end-Feb 2017, an all-time high (up 400 bps since Feb 2016 and 300 bps since Jio launch),\" it added.<\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":58489513,"title":"Phone as a deemed export: Edit","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/phone-as-a-deemed-export-edit\/58489513","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"msid":58489918,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Reliance Jio sees slowdown in net active user addition due to addressable market challenges: Kotak","synopsis":"Reliance Jio ended Feb 2017 with 76 million active subs, up 7.2 million month-over-month. It had added an average of 13.7 mn active subs per month since launch in Sep 2016. Kotak noted that the slowdown in net adds pace for Jio is happening on expected line","titleseo":"telecomnews\/reliance-jio-sees-slowdown-in-net-active-user-addition-due-to-addressable-market-challenges-kotak","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Danish Khan","author_link":"\/author\/479206691\/danish-khan","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479206691.cms?width=100&height=100&hostid=268","author_additional":{"thumbsize":true,"msid":479206691,"author_name":"Danish Khan","author_seo_name":"danish-khan","designation":"Senior Editor","agency":false}}],"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ETTelecom","artdate":"2017-05-03 10:19:05","lastupd":"2017-05-03 10:25:53","breadcrumbTags":["Reliance Jio","Airtel","Vodafone","Kotak","Idea Cellular","subscribers","3G\/4G"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/reliance-jio-sees-slowdown-in-net-active-user-addition-due-to-addressable-market-challenges-kotak"}}" data-news_link="//www.iser-br.com/news/reliance-jio-sees-slowdown-in-net-active-user-addition-due-to-addressable-market-challenges-kotak/58489918">