Even in an industry famous for its roller-coaster cycles, chipmakers are bracing for a particularly severe shift in coming months, when a record-setting sales surge is threatening to give way to the worst decline in a decade or more. 即使是在一个行业闻名过山车周期,芯片制造商将面临一个特别严重的改变在未来几个月,当一个创纪录的销量猛增威胁要给十年来最严重的衰退或更多。
The semiconductor<\/a> market enjoyed a massive run-up in orders during the pandemic, sending sales and stock prices to new highs and triggering a global scramble to find enough supplies. There was hope in some circles that the boom could be sustained for several more years without a painful pullback, but chipmakers are now facing a familiar problem: growing inventory and shrinking demand.
It’s a dilemma as old as the computing age. It takes years to build a chip plant, and they don’t always come online when they’re most needed. In the last few years, the problem was a lack of supply. As recently as this quarter, automakers and some other customers were complaining they still couldn’t get enough electronic components.
But fortunes have turned swiftly for the biggest chipmakers. Companies like Nvidia Corp.<\/a> are reporting more that 40% annual declines in their core businesses, while Micron Technology Inc.<\/a> warns that demand is evaporating fast in many areas.
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“It’s sort of darkly humorous,” said Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “The politicians are going to find out how quickly shortages can resolve themselves when the industry turns.”
Personal computer makers, some of the biggest buyers of chips, were the harbinger of darker times. Desktop processor shipments dropped to their lowest level in nearly three decades in the second quarter, according to Mercury Research<\/a>. Total processor shipments experienced their largest year-over-year falloff since about 1984.
It’s a painful hangover following pandemic lockdowns, when the work-from-home trend spurred demand for PCs<\/a> and other devices<\/a>. Chipmakers had been rushing to keep up with a flood of orders, and supply-chain snags made customers even more desperate. Manufacturers of electronic devices<\/a> were willing to buy chips at whatever price they could.
Now consumers are cutting down on big-ticket purchases, and chip buyers are following suit. That’s created what the industry calls an “inventory correction.” The last such downturn was in 2019, and they don’t usually last long.
But this one is expected to be especially pronounced due to a weakening global economy. If an inventory correction happens at the same time the economy slides into recession, the industry won’t get the speedy rebound it saw after the last slump.
“It’s going to be a bad downturn,” said Gus Richard, an analyst for Northland Securities.
Christopher Danely, a Citigroup Inc.<\/a> analyst, expects the industry’s drop to be the worst in at least a decade, and possibly two. Every company and every chip category is likely to suffer, he said.
One unusual factor this time is a broad push by governments to subsidize new factories and equipment, from the US and Europe to China and Japan. Companies like Intel<\/a> Corp. lobbied for passage of the Chips legislation, arguing the US needed to be more competitive with Asian manufacturers. Now they’re poised to start adding new capacity at a time of shaky demand.
There are 24 new construction projects of large-scale plants, known as fabs, getting underway in 2022, according to chip equipment industry association SEMI. That’s well above the average of 20 that’s been tracked by SEMI since 2014. Total spending on equipment will reach $117.5 billion in 2022, up 15% from the previous industry record, which was in in 2021. Next year that spending will increase to $120.8 billion, SEMI predicts.
“It used to be a competition between companies,” Richard said. “Now it’s a competition between countries because of the strategic importance. There’s a race between China and the US.”
The business of manufacturing chips has become increasingly precarious because of the massive upfront costs. Plants with a price tag of up to $20 billion need to be run flat-out 24 hours a day to bring a return in the few years before they become obsolete. The scale required to make that kind of investment has reduced the number of companies with leading-edge technology to fewer than five. And just three, Samsung Electronics Co., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel<\/a>, account for the majority of production.
But the push to build up chip production in the US and Europe, providing an alternative to Asian manufacturing, could disrupt that drive toward efficiency.
The industry is “effectively building duplicate supply chains in the US and Europe,” said Fitch Ratings analyst Jason Pompeii. “This transition will result in short recurring periods of heightened revenue and cash flow volatility, particularly compared with the increasing efficiency the industry has enjoyed over past decades.”
In the immediate term, the risk is “overinvesting in production capacity heading into an economic downturn,” he said.
Chipmakers remain bullish about demand in the long run. Executives still expect the industry to hit $1 trillion in total revenue by the end of the decade. That means their massive factory build-out may well be worth it.
And in the end, no one really knows what will happen, said Bernstein’s Rasgon. That’s the story of the chip industry.
“Everybody is really bad at forecasting demand,” he said. “They’re too bullish, then they’re too bearish.”
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的半导体市场享有巨大的前夕在流感大流行期间的订单,发送销售和股票价格的新高,引发了全球争相找到足够的供应。有希望在某些圈子里的繁荣可以持续好几年没有痛苦的回调,但芯片制造商目前正面临一个熟悉的问题:增加库存和减少需求。
但是财富迅速最大的芯片制造商。这样的公司Nvidia Corp .)报告,其核心业务年度下降40%,而美光科技有限公司警告说,在许多领域需求正在迅速蒸发。
说:“这有点黑色幽默的Sanford c . Bernstein分析师斯泰西·罗根。“政治家们要迅速找出短缺可以解决自己当这个行业。”
个人电脑制造商,一些芯片的最大买家,黑暗时代的先驱。桌面处理器的出货量下降到近三年来的最低水平在第二季度,据汞的研究。处理器总出货量经历了约1984以来最大同比下降。
这是一个痛苦的宿醉后流行的封锁,当在家工作的趋势促使需求个人电脑和其他设备。芯片制造商已经急于跟上大量订单,和供应链困难使客户更加绝望。电子制造商设备愿意在任何价格购买芯片。
现在消费者减少了大额购买计划,芯片买家跟进。这是创造了业界称之为“库存调整。“上一次经济衰退是在2019年,他们通常不会持续太久。
但是这个预计将因全球经济疲软的情况下更加明显。如果一个同时发生的库存调整经济滑向衰退,这个行业不会迅速反弹后看到过去的衰退。
“这将是一个糟糕的衰退,”理查德格斯说,北国的分析师证券。
克里斯托弗·戴恩花旗集团(Citigroup Inc .)分析师预计,该行业的下降是至少十年来最严重的,甚至两个。每个公司,每个芯片类别可能会受到影响,他说。
一个不寻常的因素这一次是一个宽泛的推动各国政府补贴新工厂和设备,从美国和欧洲向中国和日本。这样的公司英特尔公司为芯片通过立法游说,称美国需要与亚洲制造商的竞争力。现在他们准备开始添加新的能力在摇摇欲坠的需求。
有24个新的建设项目大型植物,称为晶圆厂,2022年开始,根据芯片设备工业协会半。这是远高于平均的20被半自2014年起跟踪。设备总投入将在2022年达到1175亿美元,增长15%以前的行业纪录,这是在2021年。明年支出将增加到1208亿美元,半预测。
“这曾经是一个企业之间的竞争,”理查德说。“现在这是一个国与国之间的竞争,因为战略重要性。中国和美国之间有一场比赛。”
制造芯片的业务变得越来越不稳定,因为巨大的前期成本。工厂的价格高达200亿美元需要运行一天24小时完全将返回在几年前就过时了。应这种投资规模减少了与前沿技术的公司数量少于五个。就三个,三星电子有限公司,台湾半导体制造公司和英特尔,占大多数的生产。
但是,推动建立芯片生产在美国和欧洲,亚洲制造业提供另一种选择,可能会扰乱驱动效率。
行业是“有效地建立重复的供应链在美国和欧洲,”惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)分析师Jason庞贝。“这种转变将导致短经常性收入和现金流波动加剧的时期,尤其是与提高效率相比行业享有过去几十年。”
在短期内,风险是“过度投资在生产能力进入经济衰退,”他说。
芯片制造商仍然看好长期需求。高管们仍然预计,行业的总收入达到1万亿美元的最后十年。这意味着大规模的工厂建设很可能是值得的。
最后,没有人真正知道会发生什么,伯恩斯坦的Rasgon说。这是芯片行业的故事。
“每个人都是非常糟糕的预测需求,”他说。“他们太乐观,然后他们太悲观。”
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Even in an industry famous for its roller-coaster cycles, chipmakers are bracing for a particularly severe shift in coming months, when a record-setting sales surge is threatening to give way to the worst decline in a decade or more.
The semiconductor<\/a> market enjoyed a massive run-up in orders during the pandemic, sending sales and stock prices to new highs and triggering a global scramble to find enough supplies. There was hope in some circles that the boom could be sustained for several more years without a painful pullback, but chipmakers are now facing a familiar problem: growing inventory and shrinking demand.
It’s a dilemma as old as the computing age. It takes years to build a chip plant, and they don’t always come online when they’re most needed. In the last few years, the problem was a lack of supply. As recently as this quarter, automakers and some other customers were complaining they still couldn’t get enough electronic components.
But fortunes have turned swiftly for the biggest chipmakers. Companies like Nvidia Corp.<\/a> are reporting more that 40% annual declines in their core businesses, while Micron Technology Inc.<\/a> warns that demand is evaporating fast in many areas.
“It’s sort of darkly humorous,” said Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “The politicians are going to find out how quickly shortages can resolve themselves when the industry turns.”
Personal computer makers, some of the biggest buyers of chips, were the harbinger of darker times. Desktop processor shipments dropped to their lowest level in nearly three decades in the second quarter, according to Mercury Research<\/a>. Total processor shipments experienced their largest year-over-year falloff since about 1984.
It’s a painful hangover following pandemic lockdowns, when the work-from-home trend spurred demand for PCs<\/a> and other devices<\/a>. Chipmakers had been rushing to keep up with a flood of orders, and supply-chain snags made customers even more desperate. Manufacturers of electronic devices<\/a> were willing to buy chips at whatever price they could.
Now consumers are cutting down on big-ticket purchases, and chip buyers are following suit. That’s created what the industry calls an “inventory correction.” The last such downturn was in 2019, and they don’t usually last long.
But this one is expected to be especially pronounced due to a weakening global economy. If an inventory correction happens at the same time the economy slides into recession, the industry won’t get the speedy rebound it saw after the last slump.
“It’s going to be a bad downturn,” said Gus Richard, an analyst for Northland Securities.
Christopher Danely, a Citigroup Inc.<\/a> analyst, expects the industry’s drop to be the worst in at least a decade, and possibly two. Every company and every chip category is likely to suffer, he said.
One unusual factor this time is a broad push by governments to subsidize new factories and equipment, from the US and Europe to China and Japan. Companies like Intel<\/a> Corp. lobbied for passage of the Chips legislation, arguing the US needed to be more competitive with Asian manufacturers. Now they’re poised to start adding new capacity at a time of shaky demand.
There are 24 new construction projects of large-scale plants, known as fabs, getting underway in 2022, according to chip equipment industry association SEMI. That’s well above the average of 20 that’s been tracked by SEMI since 2014. Total spending on equipment will reach $117.5 billion in 2022, up 15% from the previous industry record, which was in in 2021. Next year that spending will increase to $120.8 billion, SEMI predicts.
“It used to be a competition between companies,” Richard said. “Now it’s a competition between countries because of the strategic importance. There’s a race between China and the US.”
The business of manufacturing chips has become increasingly precarious because of the massive upfront costs. Plants with a price tag of up to $20 billion need to be run flat-out 24 hours a day to bring a return in the few years before they become obsolete. The scale required to make that kind of investment has reduced the number of companies with leading-edge technology to fewer than five. And just three, Samsung Electronics Co., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel<\/a>, account for the majority of production.
But the push to build up chip production in the US and Europe, providing an alternative to Asian manufacturing, could disrupt that drive toward efficiency.
The industry is “effectively building duplicate supply chains in the US and Europe,” said Fitch Ratings analyst Jason Pompeii. “This transition will result in short recurring periods of heightened revenue and cash flow volatility, particularly compared with the increasing efficiency the industry has enjoyed over past decades.”
In the immediate term, the risk is “overinvesting in production capacity heading into an economic downturn,” he said.
Chipmakers remain bullish about demand in the long run. Executives still expect the industry to hit $1 trillion in total revenue by the end of the decade. That means their massive factory build-out may well be worth it.
And in the end, no one really knows what will happen, said Bernstein’s Rasgon. That’s the story of the chip industry.
“Everybody is really bad at forecasting demand,” he said. “They’re too bullish, then they’re too bearish.”
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