Three of the key supply-side factors driving today’s global inflation<\/a> levels have already turned around, meaning relief could be on the horizon for shoppers worldwide. 集装箱的即期汇率,这告诉我们更多关于费用我们可以期待后面的管道在芝加哥服装,奢侈品在新加坡或在欧洲家居——2021年9月历史高点以来下降了26%。 三个关键推动当今的全球供应方面的因素通货膨胀水平已经转过身来,这意味着救援可以成为全球消费者在地平线上。
A bellwether semiconductor price -- a barometer of costs of finished electronics products as diverse as laptops, dishwashers, LED bulbs<\/a>, and medical devices delivered worldwide -- is now half its July 2018 peak and down 14% from the middle of last year.
The spot rate for shipping<\/a> containers -- which tells us more about expenses we can expect later in the pipeline for apparel in Chicago, luxury items in Singapore or home furnishings in Europe -- has declined 26% since its September 2021 all-time high.
![\"\"](\"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
North America<\/a>’s fertilizer<\/a> prices -- an indicator of where global food inflation is going, including bills for tomatoes in London or onions for sale in a Johannesburg market -- is 24% below its record high in March.
With inflation now exceeding 8% in the euro area, expected to stay above that level in the US when May data<\/a> comes out on Friday and on the march in Asia too, central bankers around the world are scrambling to contain it.
Hawkish Stance<\/strong>
Even as central bankers raise rates, more economists are coalescing around the idea that peak inflation is behind us -- though there will be a lag before the lower costs of raw materials filter through to the prices shoppers see.
Though few forecasters are predicting a return to pre-pandemic prices in the short run, global retail giants like Walmart Inc. are now struggling to unload bloated inventory to a less enthusiastic shopper. So a moderation in those supply-side pressures could eventually allow central bankers to slow their tightening cycles.
“While inflation in some parts of the world are yet to peak, there are at least some signs emerging that we may not be too far off in terms of a turning point at which we start to see the annual inflation rate start to head lower,” said Khoon Goh, Singapore-based head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.
China’s producer prices peaked in late 2021 and are beginning to moderate. Economists are forecasting a 6.5% rise in factory prices in May from a year earlier, down from 8% in April.
That’s a promising development for relief in imported-goods inflation worldwide, said Goh. In addition, lower container freight rates and improving supplier delivery times in purchasing managers indexes point to easing bottlenecks that should curb price pressures later this year, he said.
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闪烁在芯片迹象,航运和肥料,通胀可能已经见顶
领头羊半导体价格——的晴雨表的成本完成笔记本电脑等电子产品,洗碗机,LED灯泡全球医疗设备交付,现在2018年7月峰值的一半,从去年年中下降了14%。
的即期汇率航运容器——告诉我们更多关于费用我们可以期待后面的管道在芝加哥服装,奢侈品在新加坡或在欧洲家居——2021年9月历史高点以来下降了26%。
北美的肥料价格——全球食品价格通胀的一个指标,包括账单西红柿在伦敦或洋葱在约翰内斯堡的市场销售,3月份的纪录高位低24%。
欧元区的通货膨胀率超过8%,预计将在美国可能会高于这个水平数据周五出来3月在亚洲,世界各地的中央银行正在努力控制它。
强硬的立场
即使央行提高利率,越来越多的经济学家围绕认为通胀高峰已经过去,虽然之前会有一个延迟的低成本原料渗透到消费者看到价格。
尽管一些预测者预测回归大流行前价格在短期内,全球零售巨头沃尔玛公司正在努力卸载臃肿库存少一个狂热的购物者。所以适量的供应压力最终可能允许央行放缓紧缩周期。
“虽然通货膨胀在世界的一些地方还没有峰值,至少有一些新兴的迹象,我们可能不会太遥远的一个转折点,我们开始看到年度通胀率开始走低,“Khoon Goh说,新加坡的亚洲研究主管澳大利亚&新西兰银行集团。
中国的生产者价格在2021年达到顶峰,开始温和。经济学家预测6.5%的工厂价格上涨可能较上年同期,低于4月份的8%。
在进口商品的通货膨胀,是个很有前途的发展在世界范围内,Goh说。此外,降低集装箱运费和改善采购经理人指数中供应商配送时间点宽松政策瓶颈,今年晚些时候应该遏制价格压力,”他说。
Three of the key supply-side factors driving today’s global inflation<\/a> levels have already turned around, meaning relief could be on the horizon for shoppers worldwide.
A bellwether semiconductor price -- a barometer of costs of finished electronics products as diverse as laptops, dishwashers, LED bulbs<\/a>, and medical devices delivered worldwide -- is now half its July 2018 peak and down 14% from the middle of last year.
The spot rate for shipping<\/a> containers -- which tells us more about expenses we can expect later in the pipeline for apparel in Chicago, luxury items in Singapore or home furnishings in Europe -- has declined 26% since its September 2021 all-time high.
North America<\/a>’s fertilizer<\/a> prices -- an indicator of where global food inflation is going, including bills for tomatoes in London or onions for sale in a Johannesburg market -- is 24% below its record high in March.
With inflation now exceeding 8% in the euro area, expected to stay above that level in the US when May data<\/a> comes out on Friday and on the march in Asia too, central bankers around the world are scrambling to contain it.
Hawkish Stance<\/strong>
Even as central bankers raise rates, more economists are coalescing around the idea that peak inflation is behind us -- though there will be a lag before the lower costs of raw materials filter through to the prices shoppers see.
Though few forecasters are predicting a return to pre-pandemic prices in the short run, global retail giants like Walmart Inc. are now struggling to unload bloated inventory to a less enthusiastic shopper. So a moderation in those supply-side pressures could eventually allow central bankers to slow their tightening cycles.
“While inflation in some parts of the world are yet to peak, there are at least some signs emerging that we may not be too far off in terms of a turning point at which we start to see the annual inflation rate start to head lower,” said Khoon Goh, Singapore-based head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.
China’s producer prices peaked in late 2021 and are beginning to moderate. Economists are forecasting a 6.5% rise in factory prices in May from a year earlier, down from 8% in April.
That’s a promising development for relief in imported-goods inflation worldwide, said Goh. In addition, lower container freight rates and improving supplier delivery times in purchasing managers indexes point to easing bottlenecks that should curb price pressures later this year, he said.
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