SAN RAMON: As the U.S. economy rebounds from its pandemic slump, a vital cog is in short supply: the computer chips that power a wide range of products that connect, transport and entertain us in a world increasingly dependent on technology. 圣拉蒙:随着美国经济复苏的流行下滑,一个至关重要的齿轮供应不足:电脑芯片功率范围广泛的产品连接,交通和娱乐我们的世界越来越依赖技术。
The shortage has already been rippling through various markets since last summer. It has made it difficult for schools to buy enough laptops for students forced to learn from home, delayed the release of popular products such as the iPhone 12 and created mad scrambles to find the latest video game consoles such as the PlayStation<\/a> 5.
But things have been getting even worse in recent weeks, particularly in the auto industry, where factories are shutting down because there aren't enough chips to finish building vehicles that are starting to look like computers on wheels. The problem was recently compounded by a grounded container ship that blocked the Suez Canal for nearly a week, choking off chips headed from Asia to Europe.
These snags are likely to frustrate consumers who can't find the vehicle they want and sometimes find themselves settling for lower-end models without as many fancy electronic features. And it threatens to leave a big dent in the auto industry, which by some estimates stands to lose $60 billion in sales during the first half of his year.
\"We have been hit by the perfect storm, and it's not going away any time soon,\" said Baird technology analyst Ted Mortonson, who said he has never seen such a serious shortage in nearly 30 years tracking the chip industry.
Is the pandemic to blame?<\/strong>
Sort of. The pandemic prompted chip factories to start shutting down early last year, particularly overseas, where the majority of the processors are made. By the time they started to reopen, they had a backlog of orders to fill.
That wouldn't have been as daunting if chipmakers weren't then swamped by unforeseen demand. For instance, no one entered 2020 expecting to see a spike in personal computer sales after nearly a decade of steady decline. But that's what happened after government lockdowns forced millions of office workers to do their jobs from home while students mostly attended their classes remotely.
Are other factors are at work?<\/strong>
Yes. Both Sony<\/a> and Microsoft<\/a> were preparing to release highly anticipated next-generation video game consoles for their PlayStation and Xbox brands, respectively, that required more sophisticated chips than ever. To add to the demand, wireless network providers are clamoring for chips to power ultrafast \"5G\" services being built around the world.
President Donald Trump's trade war with China probably didn't help either. Some analysts believe the Trump administration's blacklisting of Huawei Technologies prompted that major maker of smartphones to build a huge stockpile of chips as it braced for the crackdown.
Why is the auto industry being hit so hard?<\/strong>
Stay-at-home orders drove a surge in consumer electronics sales, squeezing auto parts suppliers who use chips for computers that control gas pedals, transmissions and touch screens. Chipmakers compounded the pressure by rejiggering factory lines to better serve the consumer-electronics market, which generates far more revenue for them than autos.
After eight weeks of pandemic-induced shutdown in the spring, automakers started reopening factories earlier than they had envisioned. But then they were hit with unexpected news: chip makers weren't able to flip a switch quickly and make the types of processors needed for cars.
How are automakers dealing with the shortage?<\/strong>
They've canceled shifts and temporarily closed factories. Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler (now Stellantis), Volkswagen and Honda<\/a> seem to have been hit the hardest. Others, most notably Toyota, aren't being affected as dramatically. That is probably because Toyota was better prepared after learning how sudden, unexpected shocks can disrupt supply chains from the massive earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan in 2011, said Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya.
The harder hit automakers have diverted chips from slower-selling models to those in high demand, such as pickup trucks and large SUVs. Ford, GM and Stellantis have started building vehicles without some computers, putting them in storage with plans to retrofit them later.
GM expects the chip shortage<\/a> to cost it up to $2 billion in pretax profits this year from lost production and sales. Ford is bracing for a similar blow. Chipmakers probably won't fully catch up with auto-industry demand until July at the earliest.
How will this affect people who want to buy a new car?<\/strong>
Expect to pay more. Supplies of many models were tight even before the chip shortage because automakers were having trouble making up for production lost to the pandemic.
IHS Markit estimates that from January through March, the chip shortage reduced North American auto production by about 100,000 vehicles. In January of last year, before the pandemic, the U.S. auto industry had enough vehicles to supply 77 days of demand. By February of 2021, it was down almost 30% to 55 days.
Will other popular products be affected this year?<\/strong>
Samsung<\/a> Electronics, one of the world's biggest chipmakers, recently warned that its vast line-up of consumer electronics could be affected by the shortage. Without specifying which products might be affected, Samsung co-CEO Koh Dong-jin told shareholders that a \"serious imbalance\" between the supply and demand for chips could hurt sales from April through June.
What's going to prevent this from happening again?<\/strong>
There are no quick fixes, but chipmakers appear to be gearing up to meet future challenges.
Intel<\/a>, which for decades has dominated the market for PC chips, recently made waves by announcing plans to invest $20 billion in two new factories in Arizona. Even more significant, Intel revealed said it is starting a new division that will enter into contracts to make chips tailored for other firms in addition to its own processors. That's a major departure for Intel, aligning it more closely with a model popularized by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, which already had been building a plant in Arizona, too.
Compelled by the current shortage, TSMC also has committed to spending $100 billion during the next three years to expand its worldwide chip manufacturing capacity. About $28 billion of that investment will come this year to boost production at factories that have been unable to keep up with the surge in demand since the pandemic began, according to TSMC Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei.
And President Joe Biden's $2 trillion plan to improve U.S. infrastructure includes an estimated $50 billion to help make the country less reliant on chips made overseas. The U.S. share of the worldwide chip manufacturing market has declined from 37% in 1990 to 12% today, according to Semiconductor Industry Association, a trade group.
But chips won't start coming out of any new factories built as part of the spending splurge for two to three years. And even as existing factories ramp up and expand to meet current demand, some analysts wonder if there might be a glut of processors a year from now.
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短缺已经通过各种市场自去年夏天荡漾。它使得学校很难购买足够的笔记本电脑在家学生被迫学习,推迟发布的流行产品,如iPhone 12和创建疯狂打乱找到最新的视频游戏控制台等游戏机5。
但事情已经在最近几周变得更糟的是,尤其在汽车行业,工厂关闭,因为没有足够的芯片来完成建筑车辆开始看起来像车轮上的电脑。问题是最近复杂化停飞集装箱船,封锁苏伊士运河了近一个星期,扼杀芯片从亚洲到欧洲。
“我们受到完美风暴,短时间内不会消失,”贝尔德技术分析师泰德·莫特森说他说他从未见过如此严重短缺近30年来追踪芯片行业。
流感大流行是罪魁祸首?
排序的。大流行促使芯片工厂去年年初开始关闭,尤其是海外,大多数的处理器。他们开始重新开放的时候,他们有积压的订单。
,不会有令人畏惧的如果芯片制造商没有淹没在不可预见的需求。例如,进入2020年没有人希望看到个人电脑销量飙升经过近十年的稳步下降。但那之后发生了什么政府封锁迫使数以百万计的上班族在家做他们的工作,而学生主要参加了远程类。
其他因素在起作用?
是的。这两个索尼和微软正准备发布备受期待的新一代视频游戏机PlayStation和Xbox品牌,分别需要比以往任何时候都更复杂的芯片。添加需求,无线网络提供商要求芯片功率超快的“5 g”服务世界各地正在建设。
主席唐纳德·特朗普与中国的贸易战争可能没有任何帮助。一些分析人士认为,特朗普的华为技术促使政府黑名单主要建立了一大批智能手机芯片制造商准备镇压。
为什么受到如此重创的汽车行业?
全职订单驱车消费电子产品销售激增,挤压汽车零部件供应商使用的电脑芯片控制油门踏板,变速器和触摸屏。芯片制造商加剧的压力调整工厂线来更好地服务消费电子市场,产生远比汽车给他们带来更多的收入。
春天pandemic-induced关闭8周后,汽车制造商开始重新开放工厂比他们预想的还要早。但他们遭遇了意想不到的新闻:芯片制造商无法快速开关,使汽车所需类型的处理器。乐动扑克
汽车制造商是如何应对短缺吗?
他们已经取消了转变和暂时关闭工厂。福特、通用、菲亚特克莱斯勒(现在Stellantis)、大众(Volkswagen)和本田似乎遭受了最大的打击。其他人,尤其是丰田、没有显著影响。后做了更好的准备,可能是因为丰田学习突然,意想不到的冲击可能破坏供应链的大地震和海啸袭击日本在2011年,美国银行证券分析师Vivek Arya说。
更大的冲击汽车制造商把芯片从slower-selling模型的高需求,如皮卡和suv。福特、通用和Stellantis已经开始建立车辆没有一些电脑,把它们存储在改造以后的计划。
通用汽车预计,芯片短缺花费了20亿美元的税前利润今年失去了生产和销售。福特是面临一个类似的打击。芯片制造商可能不会完全赶上最早在7月汽车行业的需求。
这将如何影响人想买一辆新车吗?
希望花更多的钱。之前供应的许多模型都紧芯片短缺,因为汽车制造商难以弥补生产大流行。
IHS Markit估计,从1月到3月,芯片短缺北美汽车生产减少了约100000辆。去年1月,在大流行之前,美国汽车业有足够的车辆供应77天的需求。2021年2月,是55天下跌近30%。
其他受欢迎的产品会影响今年吗?
三星电子、世界上最大的芯片制造商之一,最近警告说,其庞大的消费电子产品可能受到短缺的影响。不指定哪些产品可能受到影响,三星联合ceo Koh Dong-jin告诉股东,供给和需求之间的“严重失衡”芯片可能会损害销售从4月到6月。
要防止这种情况再次发生?
这里没有捷径,但芯片制造商似乎准备迎接未来的挑战。
英特尔,几十年来一直占据着个人电脑芯片市场,最近波宣布计划投资200亿美元在两个新工厂在亚利桑那州。更重要,英特尔透露说,开始一个新的部门将进入合同芯片为其他公司除了自己的处理器。英特尔的主要出发,使它更紧密地与一个模型推广台湾半导体制造有限公司、台积电已经建立一个工厂在亚利桑那州。
由当前的短缺,迫使台积电也承诺花费1000亿美元在未来三年内扩大其全球芯片制造能力。今年大约280亿美元的投资将会增加生产工厂,无法跟上需求激增的大流行以来,据台积电首席执行官贝。
总统拜登(Joe Biden) 2万亿美元的计划来提高美国基础设施包括一个约500亿美元来帮助使国家更少依赖海外芯片了。美国在全球芯片制造市场的份额已从1990年的37%下降到今天的12%,根据半导体行业协会,一个贸易组织。
但芯片不会开始的任何新工厂建立的一部分支出挥霍了两到三年。甚至现有工厂增加和扩大来满足当前需求,一些分析师怀疑可能有大量的处理器一年后。
读到
SAN RAMON: As the U.S. economy rebounds from its pandemic slump, a vital cog is in short supply: the computer chips that power a wide range of products that connect, transport and entertain us in a world increasingly dependent on technology.
The shortage has already been rippling through various markets since last summer. It has made it difficult for schools to buy enough laptops for students forced to learn from home, delayed the release of popular products such as the iPhone 12 and created mad scrambles to find the latest video game consoles such as the PlayStation<\/a> 5.
But things have been getting even worse in recent weeks, particularly in the auto industry, where factories are shutting down because there aren't enough chips to finish building vehicles that are starting to look like computers on wheels. The problem was recently compounded by a grounded container ship that blocked the Suez Canal for nearly a week, choking off chips headed from Asia to Europe.
These snags are likely to frustrate consumers who can't find the vehicle they want and sometimes find themselves settling for lower-end models without as many fancy electronic features. And it threatens to leave a big dent in the auto industry, which by some estimates stands to lose $60 billion in sales during the first half of his year.
\"We have been hit by the perfect storm, and it's not going away any time soon,\" said Baird technology analyst Ted Mortonson, who said he has never seen such a serious shortage in nearly 30 years tracking the chip industry.
Is the pandemic to blame?<\/strong>
Sort of. The pandemic prompted chip factories to start shutting down early last year, particularly overseas, where the majority of the processors are made. By the time they started to reopen, they had a backlog of orders to fill.
That wouldn't have been as daunting if chipmakers weren't then swamped by unforeseen demand. For instance, no one entered 2020 expecting to see a spike in personal computer sales after nearly a decade of steady decline. But that's what happened after government lockdowns forced millions of office workers to do their jobs from home while students mostly attended their classes remotely.
Are other factors are at work?<\/strong>
Yes. Both Sony<\/a> and Microsoft<\/a> were preparing to release highly anticipated next-generation video game consoles for their PlayStation and Xbox brands, respectively, that required more sophisticated chips than ever. To add to the demand, wireless network providers are clamoring for chips to power ultrafast \"5G\" services being built around the world.
President Donald Trump's trade war with China probably didn't help either. Some analysts believe the Trump administration's blacklisting of Huawei Technologies prompted that major maker of smartphones to build a huge stockpile of chips as it braced for the crackdown.
Why is the auto industry being hit so hard?<\/strong>
Stay-at-home orders drove a surge in consumer electronics sales, squeezing auto parts suppliers who use chips for computers that control gas pedals, transmissions and touch screens. Chipmakers compounded the pressure by rejiggering factory lines to better serve the consumer-electronics market, which generates far more revenue for them than autos.
After eight weeks of pandemic-induced shutdown in the spring, automakers started reopening factories earlier than they had envisioned. But then they were hit with unexpected news: chip makers weren't able to flip a switch quickly and make the types of processors needed for cars.
How are automakers dealing with the shortage?<\/strong>
They've canceled shifts and temporarily closed factories. Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler (now Stellantis), Volkswagen and Honda<\/a> seem to have been hit the hardest. Others, most notably Toyota, aren't being affected as dramatically. That is probably because Toyota was better prepared after learning how sudden, unexpected shocks can disrupt supply chains from the massive earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan in 2011, said Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya.
The harder hit automakers have diverted chips from slower-selling models to those in high demand, such as pickup trucks and large SUVs. Ford, GM and Stellantis have started building vehicles without some computers, putting them in storage with plans to retrofit them later.
GM expects the chip shortage<\/a> to cost it up to $2 billion in pretax profits this year from lost production and sales. Ford is bracing for a similar blow. Chipmakers probably won't fully catch up with auto-industry demand until July at the earliest.
How will this affect people who want to buy a new car?<\/strong>
Expect to pay more. Supplies of many models were tight even before the chip shortage because automakers were having trouble making up for production lost to the pandemic.
IHS Markit estimates that from January through March, the chip shortage reduced North American auto production by about 100,000 vehicles. In January of last year, before the pandemic, the U.S. auto industry had enough vehicles to supply 77 days of demand. By February of 2021, it was down almost 30% to 55 days.
Will other popular products be affected this year?<\/strong>
Samsung<\/a> Electronics, one of the world's biggest chipmakers, recently warned that its vast line-up of consumer electronics could be affected by the shortage. Without specifying which products might be affected, Samsung co-CEO Koh Dong-jin told shareholders that a \"serious imbalance\" between the supply and demand for chips could hurt sales from April through June.
What's going to prevent this from happening again?<\/strong>
There are no quick fixes, but chipmakers appear to be gearing up to meet future challenges.
Intel<\/a>, which for decades has dominated the market for PC chips, recently made waves by announcing plans to invest $20 billion in two new factories in Arizona. Even more significant, Intel revealed said it is starting a new division that will enter into contracts to make chips tailored for other firms in addition to its own processors. That's a major departure for Intel, aligning it more closely with a model popularized by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, which already had been building a plant in Arizona, too.
Compelled by the current shortage, TSMC also has committed to spending $100 billion during the next three years to expand its worldwide chip manufacturing capacity. About $28 billion of that investment will come this year to boost production at factories that have been unable to keep up with the surge in demand since the pandemic began, according to TSMC Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei.
And President Joe Biden's $2 trillion plan to improve U.S. infrastructure includes an estimated $50 billion to help make the country less reliant on chips made overseas. The U.S. share of the worldwide chip manufacturing market has declined from 37% in 1990 to 12% today, according to Semiconductor Industry Association, a trade group.
But chips won't start coming out of any new factories built as part of the spending splurge for two to three years. And even as existing factories ramp up and expand to meet current demand, some analysts wonder if there might be a glut of processors a year from now.
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