Even better-than-expected earnings haven’t been enough to stem this year’s rout in software stocks, and now the sector is getting hit with another headwind: the stronger dollar. Salesforce公司,最后一个大科技公司公布第一季度业绩,令投资者感到意外本周乐观的预测。总体而言,标普500指数85%的软件公司公布的利润超过预期,只有79%的科技公司,据彭博社采集数据显示。 甚至好于预期的收益没有足以阻止今年的软件股的暴跌,现在这个行业越来越受到另一个不利因素:美元走强。
Salesforce Inc<\/a>., one of the last big tech companies to report first-quarter earnings, surprised investors with a bullish forecast this week. Overall, 85% of software companies in the S&P 500 reported profits that beat expectations, versus just 79% for all tech companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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“They’re more attractive than they were, but we won’t chase the quality names lower thinking they’re bargains yet,” Stephen Hoedt, managing director of equity research at Key Private Bank, said of software stocks. “Cheap can quickly become cheaper in a rising-rate environment.”
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down 24% in 2022, while a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of the priciest software names is down more than 40%. The overall S&P 500 information technology sector index has fallen about 18%.
The tech bear market in part reflects the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has risen to 2.9% from below 1.35% in December. Higher rates discount the present value of expected profits, and for highly valued software companies most of the earnings are far off in the future.
Microsoft trades near 26 times estimated earnings, down from a recent peak above 35 but still over its 10-year average of 21. The S&P 500 software and services index is at 25 times, also above its long-term average.
Even though Salesforce<\/a>’s outlook spurred a rally in the stock Wednesday, the company doubled the hit it expects to take to its revenue this year because of the dollar’s strength. The US Dollar<\/a> Index has risen more than 7% off a January low, and last month hit its highest since 2002.
According to KeyBanc Capital Markets, software stocks ended May with downside potential of as much as 27% to their pre-Covid averages, when measured on the basis of enterprise value to free cash flow. It sees particular risk for companies with low or negative free-cash-flow margins.
For now, analysts aren’t pricing in a deteriorating environment. Brokerages have raised their estimates for 2022 revenue growth for software and services companies: They expect growth of 14.1%, up from 13.9% in late January. Revenue for the overall tech sector is predicted to rise 12.3% this year.
“Even though rates and the potential for a recession have soured the backdrop, we are really enthusiastic about the multiyear backdrop for software,” said Denny Fish, who manages the $4.8 billion Janus Henderson Global Technology and Innovation Fund. “You might need to bide your time for prices to recover, but Microsoft and Salesforce show the demand environment continues to be strong.”
Tech Chart<\/a> of the Day
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强势美元是最头痛的昂贵的软件的股票
Salesforce公司,最后大科技公司公布第一季度业绩,令投资者感到意外本周乐观的预测。总体而言,标普500指数85%的软件公司公布的利润超过预期,只有79%的科技公司,据彭博社采集数据显示。
“他们比他们更有吸引力,但我们不会追逐低质量的名字思考他们讨价还价,”斯蒂芬•Hoedt股票研究部门董事总经理主要私人银行,表示软件的股票。“便宜可以快速上升速率环境中变得更便宜。”
iShares扩大技术软件部门ETF在2022年下降了24%,而高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group inc .)一篮子的最贵的软件名称是下跌逾40%。标准普尔500指数的整体信息技术行业指数已下跌约18%。
科技在一定程度上反映了熊市10年期美国国债的收益率,也低于去年12月的1.35%上升到2.9%。更高的利率折现的现值预期利润,并高度重视软件公司的大部分收益在未来遥远。
微软预计收益的交易接近26倍,从近期高点高于35但仍在21日的10年平均水平。标准普尔500指数软件和服务指数在25倍,也高于其长期平均水平。
尽管Salesforce的前景刺激股票周三反弹,公司增加了一倍的打击,预计其今年收入,因为美元的力量。的美元指数1月低点已上涨逾7%,上个月触及2002年以来最高水平。
根据KeyBanc资本市场,软件与下行的潜力股截至5月pre-Covid平均高达27%,当测量的基础上,对自由现金流量的企业价值。它看到特定的风险低或负自由现金流的公司利润。
目前,分析师不定价环境恶化。券商提出了对2022年的估计收入增长对软件和服务公司:他们预计增长14.1%,高于1月下旬的13.9%。整个科技行业的营收预计今年将上涨12.3%。
“即使利率和潜在的经济衰退恶化的背景下,我们真的热衷于软件多年的背景下,“丹尼鱼说,管理48亿美元Janus亨德森全球技术和创新基金。“你可能需要等待时间价格恢复,但微软和Salesforce显示环境的需求继续保持强劲。”
技术图表一天的
Even better-than-expected earnings haven’t been enough to stem this year’s rout in software stocks, and now the sector is getting hit with another headwind: the stronger dollar.
Salesforce Inc<\/a>., one of the last big tech companies to report first-quarter earnings, surprised investors with a bullish forecast this week. Overall, 85% of software companies in the S&P 500 reported profits that beat expectations, versus just 79% for all tech companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“They’re more attractive than they were, but we won’t chase the quality names lower thinking they’re bargains yet,” Stephen Hoedt, managing director of equity research at Key Private Bank, said of software stocks. “Cheap can quickly become cheaper in a rising-rate environment.”
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down 24% in 2022, while a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of the priciest software names is down more than 40%. The overall S&P 500 information technology sector index has fallen about 18%.
The tech bear market in part reflects the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has risen to 2.9% from below 1.35% in December. Higher rates discount the present value of expected profits, and for highly valued software companies most of the earnings are far off in the future.
Microsoft trades near 26 times estimated earnings, down from a recent peak above 35 but still over its 10-year average of 21. The S&P 500 software and services index is at 25 times, also above its long-term average.
Even though Salesforce<\/a>’s outlook spurred a rally in the stock Wednesday, the company doubled the hit it expects to take to its revenue this year because of the dollar’s strength. The US Dollar<\/a> Index has risen more than 7% off a January low, and last month hit its highest since 2002.
According to KeyBanc Capital Markets, software stocks ended May with downside potential of as much as 27% to their pre-Covid averages, when measured on the basis of enterprise value to free cash flow. It sees particular risk for companies with low or negative free-cash-flow margins.
For now, analysts aren’t pricing in a deteriorating environment. Brokerages have raised their estimates for 2022 revenue growth for software and services companies: They expect growth of 14.1%, up from 13.9% in late January. Revenue for the overall tech sector is predicted to rise 12.3% this year.
“Even though rates and the potential for a recession have soured the backdrop, we are really enthusiastic about the multiyear backdrop for software,” said Denny Fish, who manages the $4.8 billion Janus Henderson Global Technology and Innovation Fund. “You might need to bide your time for prices to recover, but Microsoft and Salesforce show the demand environment continues to be strong.”
Tech Chart<\/a> of the Day
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