Technology stocks are treading on shaky ground despite this week’s rally, as chipmakers signal more trouble may be ahead in an industry notorious for its booms and busts.
Semiconductor<\/a> shares have been tumbling amid a series of corporate warnings about slowing demand for chips that are used in an array of electronic devices<\/a> like mobile phones. The Philadelphia semiconductor index is down 11% over the past four weeks, underperforming the 7% drop in the Nasdaq 100, with laggards such as Nvidia<\/a> Corp. hitting lows for 2022.
Investors are concerned slowing orders that are already plaguing makers of memory chips and other components used in personal computers could spread to the rest of the semiconductor industry. Nothwithstanding the Nasdaq 100 Index’s 4% rebound this week, technology stocks were already pressured from a Federal Reserve<\/a> bent on aggressive rate hikes to snuff out inflation.
“There’s a palpable fear that the semiconductor cycle has begun to turn negative and demand is slowing,” said Jason Benowitz, senior portfolio manager at Roosevelt Investment Group<\/a>. “If the downturn turns out to be deeper and longer and more broad, then we would expect technology to also underperform.”
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Semiconductor stocks are slumping again and underperforming broader tech.
The selloff since mid-August is a reversal from two months ago when tech stocks led a rebound in the S&P 500 amid optimism that inflation was waning, a scenario that traders believed would give the Fed flexibility to slow its campaign of interest rate increases. That optimism was squelched on Aug. 26 by central bank chief Jerome Powell, who pushed back against the idea that it would soon reverse course.
Samsung Electronics<\/a> Co. added to concerns this week after a senior executive at the world’s largest chipmaker said the outlook for the second half of the year is gloomy and it isn’t seeing momentum for a recovery in 2023. That followed weak sales forecasts from companies such as Micron Technology Inc. and Western Digital<\/a> Corp.
Semiconductors take months to go through a complicated manufacturing process and chip buyers are acutely concerned about a recurrence of supply chain shortages that arose after the Covid-19 pandemic caused demand to soar, making the industry’s orders an indicator of future demand for electronics and other goods.
Nvidia, which makes graphics processors used in personal computers and data centers, has lost more than half of its market value this year amid a rout in stocks with lofty valuations. The stock, however, remains a favorite for retail investors who have made more than $600 million in net purchases over the past two weeks, research firm Vanda said Wednesday.
Shrinking Estimates<\/strong>
Analysts have slashed profit estimates for semiconductor companies more than other parts of the tech sector. Earnings for chip-related companies in the S&P 500 are projected to be flat in 2023, down from expectations of 12% growth just three months ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence<\/a>. By contrast, profits for the broader information technology sector are projected to expand 6%, down from 11% over the same span.
Morgan Stanley<\/a> analyst Joseph Moore said this week he sees increasing challenges for chipmakers with inventories on the rise.
“We expect every sector to show some degree of inventory correction in the next 12-18 months,” he wrote in a research note, referring to the semiconductor industry.
Bullish investors argue that most of the bad news is already priced into the stocks, creating an opportunity to buy chipmakers at depressed valuations. The chip index is priced at 15 times earnings projected over the next 12 months, down from a high of 24 in January 2021 and below the average of 16 over the past decade.
However, the last time the Fed embarked on a similar rate-raising campaign in 2018, causing technology stocks to crater, the Philadelphia semiconductor index didn’t bottom out until the multiple hit 11.
Citigroup Inc.’s Christopher Danely sees parallels with a semiconductor slump about a decade ago.
“We remain cautious on semis and believe this downturn is similar to the 2011\/2012 downturn, due to multiple contraction, demand contraction and inventory correction,” he said.
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科技股涨势被明显的恐惧的芯片产业的弱点
投资者担心订单放缓已经困扰存储芯片制造商和其他组件中使用个人电脑可能会蔓延至其他半导体行业。Nothwithstanding纳斯达克100指数本周反弹4%,科技股
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由Jeran威腾斯坦
科技股踩在摇摇欲坠,尽管本周的反弹,随着芯片制造商信号更多的麻烦可能是在一个行业臭名昭著的繁荣和萧条。
半导体股价暴跌之际,一系列的企业对需求放缓的警告中使用一个数组的电子芯片设备像手机。费城半导体指数下降了11%在过去的四个星期,表现不佳的纳斯达克100年下降7%,落后等英伟达2022年公司触及低点。
投资者担心订单放缓已经困扰存储芯片制造商和其他组件中使用个人电脑可能会蔓延至其他半导体行业。Nothwithstanding纳斯达克100指数本周反弹4%,科技股已经从一个压力美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)倾向于激进的加息扼杀通货膨胀。
”有一个明显的担心,半导体周期已经开始把消极和需求正在放缓,”詹森·波诺维奇说,高级投资组合经理罗斯福投资集团。“如果经济低迷是更深层次的,更长、更广泛,那么我们希望技术也表现不佳。”
半导体股市再次暴跌和表现不佳的更广泛的技术。
抛售自8月中旬以来逆转从两个月前当领导的科技股反弹,标准普尔500指数在乐观地认为通货膨胀率下降,一个场景,交易员认为将赋予美联储的灵活性缓慢加息的运动。在8月26日,乐观了央行行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔,他推迟反对这个主意,将很快扭转。
三星电子co .)添加到关注本周在世界最大的芯片制造商的一位高管说,今年下半年的前景是令人沮丧的,这不是看到势头在2023年复苏。销售疲软后从公司如美光科技公司和预测西部数据公司集团。
半导体需要几个月经历一个复杂的制造过程和芯片买家敏锐地关注供应链短缺的复发后出现Covid-19大流行导致需求飙升,使得该行业的未来订单的指标对电子产品和其他商品的需求。
英伟达,使得图形处理器用于个人电脑和数据中心,已经失去了一半以上的市场价值在今年股市暴跌与崇高的估值。股票,但是,仍然是一个最喜欢的散户投资者取得了超过6亿美元的净买入在过去两周,研究公司万带兰周三说。
萎缩的估计
分析师下调获利预估半导体公司超过科技行业的其他部分。收入chip-related公司预计标普500指数在2023年持平,低于预期的12%的增长率仅仅三个月前,编制的数据显示彭博社的情报。相比之下,更广泛的信息技术行业的利润预计将增长6%,低于11%。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师约瑟夫·摩尔说本周他认为增加挑战芯片制造商与库存上升。
“我们预计所有部门显示一定程度的库存调整在未来12 - 18个月,”他在一份研究报告中写道,指的是半导体行业。
看涨的投资者认为,大部分的坏消息已经消化库存,创造一个机会购买芯片制造商在抑郁的估值。乐动扑克芯片指数目前的市盈率在15倍预计未来12个月,从2021年1月24日的高点低于过去十年的平均16。
然而,美联储开始最后一次类似rate-raising竞选2018年,导致科技股陨石坑,费城半导体指数才触底的多重打击11。
花旗集团(Citigroup Inc .)克里斯托弗·戴恩认为与半导体下滑大约十年前。
“我们半决赛仍持谨慎态度,认为这次经济衰退是类似于2011/2012低迷,由于多个收缩,收缩和库存调整的需求,”他说。
科技股踩在摇摇欲坠,尽管本周的反弹,随着芯片制造商信号更多的麻烦可能是在一个行业臭名昭著的繁荣和萧条。
半导体股价暴跌之际,一系列的企业对需求放缓的警告中使用一个数组的电子芯片设备像手机。费城半导体指数下降了11%在过去的四个星期,表现不佳的纳斯达克100年下降7%,落后等英伟达2022年公司触及低点。
投资者担心订单放缓已经困扰存储芯片制造商和其他组件中使用个人电脑可能会蔓延至其他半导体行业。Nothwithstanding纳斯达克100指数本周反弹4%,科技股已经从一个压力美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)倾向于激进的加息扼杀通货膨胀。
”有一个明显的担心,半导体周期已经开始把消极和需求正在放缓,”詹森·波诺维奇说,高级投资组合经理罗斯福投资集团。“如果经济低迷是更深层次的,更长、更广泛,那么我们希望技术也表现不佳。”
半导体股市再次暴跌和表现不佳的更广泛的技术。
抛售自8月中旬以来逆转从两个月前当领导的科技股反弹,标准普尔500指数在乐观地认为通货膨胀率下降,一个场景,交易员认为将赋予美联储的灵活性缓慢加息的运动。在8月26日,乐观了央行行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔,他推迟反对这个主意,将很快扭转。
三星电子co .)添加到关注本周在世界最大的芯片制造商的一位高管说,今年下半年的前景是令人沮丧的,这不是看到势头在2023年复苏。销售疲软后从公司如美光科技公司和预测西部数据公司集团。
半导体需要几个月经历一个复杂的制造过程和芯片买家敏锐地关注供应链短缺的复发后出现Covid-19大流行导致需求飙升,使得该行业的未来订单的指标对电子产品和其他商品的需求。
英伟达,使得图形处理器用于个人电脑和数据中心,已经失去了一半以上的市场价值在今年股市暴跌与崇高的估值。股票,但是,仍然是一个最喜欢的散户投资者取得了超过6亿美元的净买入在过去两周,研究公司万带兰周三说。
萎缩的估计
分析师下调获利预估半导体公司超过科技行业的其他部分。收入chip-related公司预计标普500指数在2023年持平,低于预期的12%的增长率仅仅三个月前,编制的数据显示彭博社的情报。相比之下,更广泛的信息技术行业的利润预计将增长6%,低于11%。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师约瑟夫·摩尔说本周他认为增加挑战芯片制造商与库存上升。
“我们预计所有部门显示一定程度的库存调整在未来12 - 18个月,”他在一份研究报告中写道,指的是半导体行业。
看涨的投资者认为,大部分的坏消息已经消化库存,创造一个机会购买芯片制造商在抑郁的估值。乐动扑克芯片指数目前的市盈率在15倍预计未来12个月,从2021年1月24日的高点低于过去十年的平均16。
然而,美联储开始最后一次类似rate-raising竞选2018年,导致科技股陨石坑,费城半导体指数才触底的多重打击11。
花旗集团(Citigroup Inc .)克里斯托弗·戴恩认为与半导体下滑大约十年前。
“我们半决赛仍持谨慎态度,认为这次经济衰退是类似于2011/2012低迷,由于多个收缩,收缩和库存调整的需求,”他说。
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