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New Delhi: Telecom<\/a> sector revenues are expected to grow steadily in the second quarter of financial year 2023 as the benefits of low spectrum usage charge start showing, according to industry<\/a> analysts.
Reliance Jio<\/a> is expected to have stronger customer additions, as compared to a modest estimate for Bharti Airtel<\/a>, while Vodafone Idea<\/a> will continue to lose users, say analysts.
However, the sequential revenue growth will likely be weaker compared to the previous two quarters as tariff hike benefits are largely behind and subscriber additions likely to be muted, they warned.
That said, market trackers also expect the margins to improve for the industry as the industry will benefit from 45-50 days of lower spectrum usage charge. SUC was 3-3.5% of average gross revenues (AGR), but was reduced to a negligible amount on the purchase of 5G<\/a> spectrum in July.
Analysts expect Bharti Airtel revenues to grow 3-3.6% on-quarter to reach Rs 336.6-339.8 billion in the financial quarter ended September 2022. Airtel is expected to show the highest addition in 4G customers, pushing its average revenue per person (ARPU<\/a>) up by 1.5-3% to reach in the range of Rs 186-190. Analysts also estimate the telco's EBITDA margin<\/a> to improve by 60-110 basis points to stand at 51.4% by the end of Q2 FY23.
Jio's revenues are expected to grow 3-4% on-quarter on account of strong customer growth, expected to be at 8-10 million by the end of the September quarter. Customer growth will happen on account of strong gross additions and lower churn after the company's subscriber cleanup in the previous financial year.
Analysts project a marginal 1-1.7% increase in ARPU for Jio to Rs 177 due to higher days in the quarter and better subscriber mix. The company's EBITDA margins are expected to expand by 110 bps to reach 51.2% in Q2 FY23.
Vodafone Idea's subscriber loss is expected to continue with the cash-strapped telco projected to lose 3.4-4 million customers in the September quarter, although the ARPU is expected to rise 2-3% to Rs 132 on account of premiumisation and additional days in the quarter.
Indus Towers<\/a>' fate will continue to be tied to Vodafone Idea's as the tower company's revenues are being projected to be flat on-year with net income declining 12% on-year. Both rental revenue and EBITDA of Indus Towers is expected to decline sequentially as the recent contract renewals were offered at a discounted rate and the exit penalty will taper off. That said, the tower and tenancy growth is expected to be higher than the first quarter of FY23.
\"In our Indus Towers quarterly forecast, we continue to assume that VIL will remain a going concern in the medium term and the dues will be collected, albeit with a delay. This can result in a divergence between the company reported operating profits with our forecasts,\" BNP Paribas said in a report.
Analysts also expect industry-wide voice minutes to rise 2.1% on-quarter, while data subscription addition is expected to be moderate on account of expensive smartphone prices. Data volumes, however, are expected to grow 3.9% sequentially in Q2FY23.
Market trackers are also projecting the upcoming tariff hikes to happen in FY23 due to a lack of near term catalysts for the industry due to a decline in smartphone shipments and subscriber base.
\"We expect operators to take one more tariff hike in FY23 as the industry prioritises profitability, especially after the large investments in the recently-concluded 5G spectrum auction,\" the BNP Paribas report said.
Focus during the upcoming earnings calls will be on the telcos' commentary on 5G launch and monetisation and capex outlook, while all eyes will be on Indus Towers commentary on the receivables situation.
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电信公司的分析师FY2Q受益于较低的往下:
依赖Jio预计将有更强的客户增加,相比适度估计Bharti Airtel,沃达丰的想法将继续失去用户,分析师说。
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新德里消息:电信部门收入预计将稳步增长在2023年第二季度的财政年度的福利低频谱使用收费开始出现,据行业分析师。
依赖Jio预计将有更强的客户增加,相比适度估计Bharti Airtel,而沃达丰的想法分析人士说,将继续失去用户。
然而,连续收入增长可能会弱相比前两个季度的关税上调背后的利益在很大程度上,新增用户数可能平淡,他们警告说。
说,市场追踪器还预计利润率提高行业的行业将受益于45 - 50天的低频谱使用。往下是3 - 3.5%的平均总收入(AGR),但降低了微不足道的购买5克7月份的频谱。
分析师预计Bharti Airtel。今年第一季度收入增长3 - 3.6%,达到336.6 Rs -.3398万亿金融季度结束2022年9月。Airtel料显示最高的另外4 g客户,推动其人均收入(ARPU)上升了-3%,达到1.5 Rs 186 - 190的范围。分析师也估计电信的EBITDA利润率提高60 - 110基点站在Q2 FY23年底的51.4%。
Jio的收入预计将增长3 - 4%客户一季度经济的强劲增长,预计将在9月季度8 - 10年底百万。客户增长将发生在帐户总值强劲的增加和降低生产,该公司在上一财政年度的订户的清理。
分析师项目边际增加1 - 1.7% ARPU Jio Rs 177由于更高的天本季度和更好的用户。公司的EBITDA利润率预计将增长110个基点在Q2 FY23达到51.2%。
沃达丰想法的用户损失预计将继续手头拮据的电信将失去-400万- 3.4客户在第三季度,尽管ARPU预计2 - 3%上升到132卢比的premiumisation和额外的天。
印度塔的命运将继续与沃达丰(Vodafone)想法的塔公司的收入将同比持平和净利润同比下降12%。租金收入和EBITDA印度河塔预计将下降顺序最近续约提供一个折现率和退出点球将逐渐减少。也就是说,塔和租赁增长预计将高于FY23第一季度。
“在我们印度塔的季度预测,我们继续认为维尔中期内仍将是一个持续经营和会费将收集,虽然延迟。这可能导致该公司公布营业利润之间的分歧与我们的预期,”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)在一份报告中说。
分析师也预计全行业的声音分钟上一季度上升2.1%,而数据订阅添加有望适度的价格昂贵的智能手机。然而,数据量,按顺序在Q2FY23预计将增长3.9%。
市场跟踪器也预测即将到来的关税上涨发生在FY23近期由于缺乏催化剂行业由于智能手机出货量下降和用户基础。
“我们预计运营商采取一个关税上调FY23行业盈利能力为重点,特别是在举行的大规模投资5 g频谱拍卖,”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的报告说。
在即将到来的财报会议将集中在电信公司的评论5 g发射和盈利和资本支出前景,而所有的注意力都将集中在印度河塔评论应收账款情况。
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