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The first noticeable increase in phone services tariffs in about five years helped Reliance achieve double-digit quarterly earnings growth, which was further undergirded by profitable expansion of the retail footprint that now touches 7,000 towns.
Earnings growth was 5% higher than consensus quarterly EPS estimates, and the average earnings beat in the past 19 quarters is 11.3%, according to Bloomberg.
The stock gained 38% in the past one year, and its 12-month rolling EPS has been upgraded 18% in the same period, with the telecom business at the vanguard of the rating upgrades. The next milestone for stock re-rating is deleveraging, with the company promising to be net debt positive by March 2021.
The capex cycle has already peaked, with Reliance incurring capital expenditure of ₹14,015 crore in the December quarter, about half of the past ten-quarter average of ₹25,342 crore. Cash profit exceeded capex.
Growth in the energy segment was more circumspect due to tapering demand for petroleum products and capacity addition. Gross refining margins (GRM) — or, earnings from turning every barrel of crude oil into fuel — are stable compared with the regional benchmark, Singapore GRM. The regional GRM dropped to $1.2 per barrel, a 69-quarter low, in the December quarter against $6.1 in the previous quarter due to a precipitate fall in the prices of fuel oil. As it has no exposure to fuel oil that suppressed the regional benchmark, RIL’s GRM stood at $9.2 per barrel, a drop of $0.2 per barrel sequentially. The premium of RIL’s GRM to the Singapore GRM expanded to $8 per barrel, a record high.
Historically, the RIL refinery maintained a premium of $4-4.5 to the regional benchmark due to its high complexity. However, the uptick in diesel margins has not materialised as anticipated due to implementation of new sulphur emission norms for ships.
The Street has pruned its GRM projection for FY21 and FY22 by $1-1.5 per barrel and is currently factoring in $11 and $10.5, respectively. GRM for RIL for the first nine months of FY20 stood at $8.8 per barrel, compared with $9.5 in the same period in FY19.
Moderation in global growth weighed on the petrochemical business. Consequently, prices of paraxylene, PTA and ethylene dropped 2-12% sequentially. This affected revenue and profitability of the petroleum segment. Operating profit of the petrochemical segment dropped 28% to ₹5,880 crore and margins reduced 209 basis points to 15.9%.
By contrast, operating profit in the telecom segment climbed 38% to ₹5,601 crore. It added 15 million subscribers and average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to ₹128.4, boosted by increase in tariffs and broader industry<\/a> measures on IUC<\/a> charges. With the Supreme Court ruling on adjusted gross revenue (AGR<\/a>) liabilities likely to reduce competition further, the telecom business is expected to turn in an even better performance.
According to Motilal Oswal, the adverse position of Vodafone Idea could result in market share gains for Reliance Jio<\/a> and Bharti Airtel, potentially boosting EBITDA by as much as ₹25,000 crore.
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第一个明显增加电话服务关税大约在五年之后帮助实现两位数的季度收益增长的依赖,这是进一步给零售的盈利扩张以支持足迹,现在触动7000个城镇。
收益增长率是5%高于季度每股收益的估计,平均收益超出了过去19个季度是11.3%,据彭博社。
股票上涨38%在过去的一年,和12个月滚动EPS同期提升18%,与电信业务的先锋等级升级。股票评级调整下一个里程碑是去杠杆化,该公司有望成为净债务正2021年3月。
资本支出周期已经见顶,依赖导致的资本支出₹12月当季14015卢比,大约一半的过去ten-quarter₹25342卢比的平均水平。现金利润超过资本支出。
能源领域的增长更加谨慎是因为逐渐减少对石油产品的需求和能力。炼油利润总值(GRM)——或者,收益将每一桶原油转化为燃料,是稳定与区域基准相比,新加坡克。区域GRM跌至每桶1.2美元,69年12月季度季度低,对6.1美元第一季度由于沉淀燃油价格下降。因为它没有接触抑制区域基准的燃油,瑞来斯克站在每桶9.2美元,下跌0.2美元,每桶顺序。保险费瑞来斯克的新加坡GRM扩展到8美元/桶,创历史新高。
从历史上看,瑞来斯炼油厂维持4 - 4.5美元的溢价区域指标由于其高的复杂性。然而,增加柴油利润率没有成为现实的预期将实现新的硫排放规范船舶。
街上已修剪GRM投影FY21和FY22 1 - 1.5美元每桶,目前正在考虑在11美元和10.5美元,分别。GRM FY20瑞来斯前九个月的每桶8.8美元,相比之下,在FY19同期的9.5美元。
全球经济增长放缓拖累石化业务。因此,对二甲苯的价格,PTA和乙烯顺序下降2 - 12%。这影响收入和利润的石油市场。营业利润的石化市场下跌28%,至5880卢比₹和利润减少209个基点,至15.9%。
相比之下,在电信领域营业利润上涨38%,₹5601卢比。增加了1500万个用户,每用户平均收入(ARPU)升至128.4₹,得益于增加关税和广泛行业措施IUC指控。最高法院的裁决在调整收入总额(AGR)负债可能会进一步减少竞争,电信业务预计将在一个甚至更好的性能。
根据Motilal Oswal,沃达丰的想法可能导致的不利地位的市场份额依赖JioBharti Airtel,可能促进EBITDA的₹25000卢比。
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