Analysts, who have come up with telecom sector previews, said Vodafone may report a significant loss for the March quarter but the figure could be lower on a sequential basis. Subscriber loss for the quarter may be higher while the revenue growth is likely in single digits, all, on a sequential basis, they said.
JM Financial estimates VIL net subscriber loss at 62 lakhs in the March quarter from 58 million net loss in December quarter. This would be on account of sim consolidation impact post November tariff hike and migration of subscribers to other telcos.
Revenue is expected to increase 7.2 per cent sequentially (8.4 per cent YoY) to Rs 10,416.50 crore due to November 2021 tariff hike. The brokerage sees average revenue per user rising 11 per cent sequentially to Rs 127 from Rs 115 in Q3FY22.
Loss is seen at Rs 5,846.20 crore compared with Rs 7,230.90 crore in December quarter and Rs 7,022.80 crore in the year-ago quarter.
For now, this brokerage has a 'sell' rating due to concerns around survivability and has a target of Rs 9 on the stock.
Kotak<\/a> Institutional Equities sees losses at Rs 7,000 crore and sees revenues rising 4.5 per cent QoQ (6 per cent YoY) to Rs 10,185 crore.
\"We expect revenues and Ebitda to increase 5 per cent QoQ driven by higher ARPUs, which will be partly offset by a decline in subscribers,\" it said.
It is expecting subscriber base to decline 35 lakh QoQ to 24.37 crore and ARPU to increase Rs 8 QoQ to Rs 122 per month, reflecting gains from tariff hikes taken in end-November.
About 74.99 per cent stake in VIL is held by promoters and out of the remaining 25 per cent stake, retail (26,18,486 shareholders as per BSE<\/a>) and HNI investors (34,009 shareholders) account for 16.93 per cent stake.
\"Although the telecom package and fund infusion from Vodafone PLC<\/a> to clear past dues has provided a temporary relief, VIL will require an immediate fund raise and further tariff hikes to alleviate its fundamental concerns,\" Emkay Global said.
This brokerage estimates sequential ARPU growth for Vodafone Idea of 12 per cent.
\"We expect subscriber decline to slow down to 20 lakh for the quarter, while data subscribers are expected to remain flat sequentially. Overall revenue growth is likely to be 9.2 per cent sequentially.
The telecom operator is yet to announce a date for disclosing March quarter numbers.
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