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Sunil Bharti Mittal, chairman of Bharti Airtel<\/a>, said that private equity player KKR was leading the race to buy a stake in tower unit, Bharti Infratel, though there were offers from a few other private equity players. Speaking in Barcelona<\/a>, Mittal said that the Vodafone-Idea merger talks had dragged the Infratel stock, which was a factor in the stake sale getting delayed but a final decision will be taken by Airtel’s next board meeting in April. Mittal said that while it’s good to finally see Reliance Jio<\/a> Infocomm start to charge for its services, the rates are still not sustainable but Airtel doesn’t have much choice but to respond. He added that the industry<\/a> is likely to stabilise by end of March 2018. Edited excerpts:\n
\nWhat is your view on consolidation?<\/strong>
\n
\nGovernments, regulators need to allow consolidation.
\nTelecom secretary said he sees five viable players. My own view is we would be down to three private players.
\n
\nWould that ensure enough competition in the market? Enough for consumers?<\/strong>
\n
\nHere, you are talking about giving 1GB a day, not 1GB a month. The paradigm has shifted. At Rs303 a month, plus some Rs99 for a year, India would have the lowest tarriffs in the world. And finally, regulators already have the powers to intervene. But you can’t have an impaired industry but also have the vision of a Digital India.
\n
\nWhat are the 2-3 policy prescriptions that you would want from the telecom department or the regulator?<\/strong>
\n
\nThere’s a new operator in town. Everyone is trying to hold onto their market share. At the moment, there are pressure on tarriffs. What can the regulator do? One, encourage consolidation. It appears from secretary telecom’s comments that they are clear that’s the right way to go. Clearances for the mergers should come out expeditiously.
\n
\nSecond part is spectrum pricing, which in India has gone out of control. Whatever has been paid in the last few auctions is not sustainable to give low value proposition to the customers.
\n
\nFinally, telecom has to be a means to an end, it can’t be an end in itself. If you want to pick up a lot of money upfront, then you will compromise on investments in networks.
\n
\nA report on spectrum pricing by GSMA shows that wherever in a country companies have paid more money for spectrum, has resulted in lower investments in networks.
\n
\nHow can government reduce spectrum pricing, given so much policing by CVC, etc?<\/strong>
\n
\nThey (government) will have to reduce it otherise every time they auction, spectrum will go unsold. When you have four operators plus BSNL, who’s going to buy expensive spectrum. There’s no capacity to buy expensive spectrum. So, forces in the government don’t allow them to take prices lower, but don’t forget, in the earlier auctions, the prices of 800 Mhz and 1800 Mhz were lowered when they went unsold. There is a precedence.
\n
\nWould you like to see spectrum auctions this year?<\/strong>
\n
\nIt won’t happen. There’s enough spectrum that has been tanked up by us atleast. Vodafone-Idea merger will yield a lot of spectrum for them. Jio has picked up the spectrum they wanted. They may want a little bit here or there, so who’s the buyer.
\nRight now, there’s no need for spectrum. We have moved to spectrum surplus for the moment, but eventually, when the data consumption goes up, we will again need more spectrum.
\nThere can’t be any auctions in 2017-18.
\n
\nJio has said it will start charging for its services from April 1. Your reading of what they have announced? How will it impact you? When will the industry competition ease?
\n
\nIt will ease once Reliance gets some scale. Firstly, the good news is that they will start charging from the 1st of April. But still, the pricing to our mind is unsustainable for the industry. It though is better than zero.
\n
\nAre you disappointed at the fact that nothing has been done to check the industry’s bleeding, and the regulator’s role in it?
\n
\nThis time, we went straight to the authorities – the Trai, who cleared the offers, and now we are at TDSAT. Can’t comment on TDSAT proceedings.
\n
\nI was happy to see that the Telecom Commission has also taken note that the revenue of the government is falling, because in the end, every Rs 100 that the industry gets on the topline, nearly Rs40 belongs to the government.
\n
\nIndustry is bleeding. What can be done?<\/strong>
\n
\nThe industry is consolidating, and that’s the first good sign. Finally people are throwing in the towel. Eventually, when sub-five opetaors have to serve the 1.2 billion people, I think we will start to get an economic case back.
\n
\nBy when do think industry will stabilise?<\/strong>
\n
\nI would say watch out for March 2018. It takes about a year for the dust to settle down. 25% of the market belongs to the small operators. When you have the share to be divided in 3 big players, and then BSNL and maybe one more combination, you will have 85%, if not 90%, between the three operators.
\n
\nIf the Indian market is going to grow from Rs2 lakh crores a year to Rs4 lakh crores, because data consumption is going up, IoT (Internet of Things) coming, Jio has hooked a lot of people into video, people will be willing to spend a lot more money. So, if you can take this to Rs4 lakh crore, and you are dividing the pool in a 3-4 player market, I think the economics will start to work well, despite the fact that tarriffs will remain low.
\n
\nIs there any case for a financial package for the industry?<\/strong>
\n
\nI don’t think so. In the end you have to take business decisions and take the associated risks. Some places you go right, some wrong. I don’t think the industry is at a point where any of the crisis industry packages are required.
\n
\nJio is starting to charge. Is it the end of the rate wars? How will you respond?<\/strong>
\n
\nNo no. The tarriffs that they have announced are very aggressive. We have got to respond. We have got to do more packages, you have to throw in more data.
\n
\nIdea has already posted it’s first ever net loss. Is Airtel looking at its first ever net loss in the fourth quarter?<\/strong>
\n
\nThere are large amounts of spectrum purchases, which have been paid for or will be paid over a period of time. There is an associated interest on it. And there’s a 5% depreciation on spectrum, given it’s a 20-year spectrum. These two line items are a new load on the industry. Idea was a victime of that also. The other is your capex. We put in 85,000 sites last year, this will (through Matrch), we will put in the same. That means a lot of depreciation gets accumulated.
\n
\nIf you look at these, you could be in the negative territory, but you have to see the free cash flow. I wouldn’t worry too much for Idea despite their net loss because you still had a positive free cash flow. Ebitda minus capex is the most important data.
\n
\nSo, even if Airtel posts a net loss in this quarter, you wouldn’t be too worried about it?<\/strong>
\n
\nI don’t think we will go into a loss, but you can never say never, but we have tanked up a lot of spectrum, we have to pay interest on that, we have close to $5 billion in Ebitda, we generate a billion dollars in free cash flow. While the Return on Capital (RoCE) has become dismal, in single digits, Airte’s balance sheet remains very healthy and strong.
\n
\nIs exiting Africa on the table? Given the pressures in India.<\/strong>
\n
\nNo. Africa is not a load on India at all. Africa has currently almost $3.4 billion in revenue and $800 million plus of Ebitda. It spends about $600 million in capex. So, in some sense it generates a free operating cash flow. Most of the debt in Africa are in bonds. Overall, Africa is taking care of itself.
\n
\nWould be want to see superior returns? Absolutely yes.
\n
\nAre you looking at consolidation in Africa?<\/strong>
\n
\nWe will look at a few countries where we feel that market restructuring is important where we may acquire or merge.
\n
\nWhich countries in Africa?<\/strong>
\n
\nWherever we are not in the top two. Not too many countries. What’s the point of being in say Rwanda as a third operator where the population is 12 million where you know you will never make it. Bangladesh is a great example.
\n
\nWhat will Airtel’s capex be in the coming year, given the market conditions in India?<\/strong>
\n
\nWe will have to accelerate capex spends. 4G deployments will accelerate. Possible that it could be more than this FY.
\n
\nAre the new tarriffs announced by Jio a new normal for the industry?<\/strong>
\n
\nIf people can pay Rs311 a month, and that becomes the norm, it’s twice the current ARPU.
\n
\nBut much more data at that price…
\n
\nThankfully the cost of data is not linear. You can add lots more data on the existing spectrum that you have, thanks to technology. So if I have 2000 terrabits of capacity and I have to move to 5000 terrabits, I have to double my investments? No, it’s probably 20% more.
\n
\nAre you disappointed by the way the telecom sector has moved in the last two years?<\/strong>
\n
\nGoing to 12 operators was a wrong decision. Countries across the world have gone wrong. But the good news is governments are realising this. They need to consolidate.
\n
\nReliance Jio is coming with huge content. Is that a direction you would want to move into?<\/strong>
\n
\nNo, our philosophy is a bit different. We would like to collaborate with content providers. We would like to be neutral in content. Won’t be interested in acquisitions in the media space.
\n
\nWhat are develeraging options on the table to bring down debt?<\/strong>
\n
\nWe are not overtly focussed on that. Whenever we can sell some tower stake, we’ll sell it but this is a company which has solid free cash flow. We would like the rate of interest (for the DoT payments) to be lower but there are no covenants. That’s about $6 billion. $5.75 billion are overseas bonds. Banks keep on coming to us to lend us more money but we don’t take it from them. Market is overtly focussed on it. We are not concerned about it.
\n
\nWe would like to be at 2.5 debt to Ebitda, which will give us some headroom. We are probably just under 3 now. But all other operators in India are at 5-6.
\n
\nWhat’s the progress on Bharti Infratel stake sale?<\/strong>
\n
\nWe had set up a committee. But after this Voda-Idea merger news, we have seen the stocks yo-yoing. Hopefully by the next board meeting (for the Q4 earnings in April) we will come out with some decision.
\n
\nWe have not taken any decision on a majority or a minority. All these decisions need aee still are up in the air.
\n
\nIs it just KKR which is in the running? Or are there more?<\/strong>
\n
\nWe have had interest from several parties. KKR has been in the lead. ATC isn’t one of the others. ATC is running a competing network. They can’t buy equity into our network. The others are all private equity types.
\n
\nOn your Telenor acquisition, you may need to return some spectrum in some circles as they breach spectrum holding limits.
\n
\nIt’s only in Bihar, by 2-3%. But by the time this merger goes through, we will be below the limits. As Jio starts to charge, in the first quarter itself, they will say for example take 10% share, everybody’s share will automatically fall a bit.
\n
\nDo you agree that once Jio starts charging, their subscriber base will come down?<\/strong>
\n
\nUsage will come down. Due to the dual SIMs, chances are you will have two of the leading operators’ SIMs in those two slots for most users. I don’t think the number of customers will drop that much but the shift of usage which went to their side as they were free, will start to get moderated.
\n
\nIs the Points of Interconnection (PoI) issue settled?<\/strong>
\n
\nPoIs are almost settled. I think the issue is nice and resting, but don’t know if its dead. One or two circles may still have issue, like Orissa. It’s being fixed.
\n
\nInterconnect cannot be a tool that anybody can use to thwart competition. The issue is with needing so much so fast.
\n
\nTrai has comes out with a new paper on interconnect, tarriffs, predatory pricing. Your first reactions.<\/strong>
\n
\nMy view is the regulator needs to have a long term vision for the industry. You cannot be doing things in fits and starts. Too much of activity is happening in a reactive manner. I am happy that Trai is calling the industry, experts to look at the long term roadmap for the industry, for example tarriffs, interconnect, predatory pricing, CECN (Closed user network.)
\n
\nIt’s the responsibility of the Trai that there is an amicable co-existance of operators, there is less noise and more work in the system. Trai is coming alive to some of these issues.
\n
\nMy only hope is that when these recommendations come, they don’t land us into further spots of litigation.
\n
\nWhat do you think will be India’s plans around 5G<\/a>?<\/strong>
\n
\nExperiments have started. Before you take a breather from a 3G or a 4G, 5G lands up. I thought 5G will knock in in 2020-2021, but it looks like 2019 now, where you will start seeing some network rollouts (globally), including handset availability. 2020 you will see a lot of action.
\n
\nIn India, my view is application of 5G is more in IoT. And the IoT part needs to develop much more in India. It is still slightly behind.\n\n<\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":57385635,"title":"How data brokers are selling all your personal info for less than a rupee to whoever wants it","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/how-data-brokers-are-selling-all-your-personal-info-for-less-than-a-rupee-to-whoever-wants-it\/57385635","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[],"seoschemas":false,"msid":57384900,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"Reliance Jio tariff still not sustainable for the industry: Sunil Mittal","synopsis":"Sunil Bharti Mittal, chairman of Bharti Airtel, said that private equity player KKR was leading the race to buy a stake in tower unit, Bharti Infratel","titleseo":"telecomnews\/reliance-jio-tariff-still-not-sustainable-for-the-industry-sunil-mittal","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[{"author_name":"Romit Guha","author_link":"\/author\/479232631\/romit-guha","author_image":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/authorthumb\/479232631.cms?width=250&height=250","author_additional":{"thumbsize":false,"msid":479232631,"author_name":"Romit Guha","author_seo_name":"romit-guha","designation":"Correspondent","agency":false}}],"analytics":{"comments":0,"views":133,"shares":0,"engagementtimems":495000},"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"ETTelecom","artdate":"2017-02-28 09:56:38","lastupd":"2017-02-28 09:56:38","breadcrumbTags":["Barcelona","Sunil Mittal","Airtel","industry","5G","Reliance Jio","MWC2017"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/reliance-jio-tariff-still-not-sustainable-for-the-industry-sunil-mittal"}}" data-authors="[" romit guha"]" data-category-name="" data-category_id="" data-date="2017-02-28" data-index="article_1">
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Bharti的主席Sunil Bharti米塔尔附近的旅馆表示,KKR私人股本球员领先比赛买股份塔单元,鼓吹,尽管有从其他一些私人股本机构提供。在巴塞罗那,米塔尔说,Vodafone-Idea合并谈判拖了鼓吹他的股票,这是一个因素在股权出售推迟但最终决定将由Airtel 4月份的下一个董事会会议。米塔尔说,虽然很高兴终于看到了依赖JioInfocomm开始收费服务,利率仍然是不可持续的,但Airtel没有多少选择,只能回应。他补充说,行业在2018年3月底可能会稳定。编辑摘录:你对整合的看法是什么?
政府,监管机构需要允许整合。
电信部长说,他看到5个可行的球员。我个人的观点是我们应该减少到3私人的球员。
确保足够的竞争市场?足够的消费者吗?
在这里,你正在谈论一天给1 gb,而不是每月1 gb。模式已经发生了变化。在Rs303一个月,再加上一些Rs99一年,印度将有世界上最低的费率。最后,监管机构已经有权力进行干预。但是你不能有一个受损的行业也有印度数字的愿景。
2 - 3是什么政策处方,你希望从电信部门或监管机构?
有一个新的操作符。每个人都试图保住自己的市场份额。目前,费率有压力。监管机构能做什么呢?1、鼓励整合。似乎从电信部长的言论,他们清楚,正确的路要走。合并许可应该迅速地出来。
第二部分是频谱定价,在印度已经失控。任何已在过去几个拍卖是不可持续的低价值客户。
最后,电信是达到目的的一种手段,它本身不能结束。如果你想提前拿很多钱,那么你会妥协的投资网络。
GSMA频谱定价的一份报告表明,无论一个国家的公司已经为光谱支付更多的钱,导致较低的投资网络。
政府如何减少频谱定价,那么多警察,CVC,等等?
他们(政府)将不得不减少otherise每次拍卖,光谱会卖不出去。当你有四个运营商+ BSNL,谁会买昂贵的光谱。没有能力购买昂贵的光谱。所以,军队,政府不允许他们采取价格低,但别忘了,在前面的拍卖,800 Mhz和1800 Mhz的价格降低时卖出。有一个优先级。
你希望看到今年频谱拍卖吗?
它不会发生。有足够的光谱,我们至少已经加满。Vodafone-Idea合并将产生大量的光谱。Jio了他们想要的频谱。他们可以在这里或那里一点,所以谁是买家。
现在,不需要频谱。我们已经搬到频谱盈余,但最终,当数据消费上升,我们将再次需要更多的频谱。
不可能有任何拍卖在2017 - 18。
Jio已表示,它将从4月1日开始收费的服务。他们宣布你的阅读?它将如何影响你?这行业竞争缓解?
它将缓解一旦得到了一些规模的依赖。首先,好消息是,他们将从4月1日开始乐动扑克收费。但是,我们的心灵的定价是不可持续的。它虽然比零。
你失望的事实没有做检查该行业的出血,和监管机构的作用吗?
这一次,我们直接去了当局的火车,扫清了报价,现在我们在TDSAT。不能TDSAT诉讼置评。
我很高兴看到电信委员会还注意到,政府的收入正在下降,因为在最后,每100卢比的行业会背线,近Rs40属于政府。
行业正在流血。可以做些什么?
行业整合,这是第一个好迹象。最后人认输了。最终,当乘以五opetaors必须为12亿人,我想我们会拿回一个经济案件。
由什么时候认为行业会稳定吗?
2018年3月我想说当心。需要大约一年的尘埃安定下来。25%的市场属于小型运营商。当你有份额划分为3大玩家,然后BSNL,也许一个组合,您将有85%,如果不是90%,三大运营商之间。
如果印度市场将增长从平日多数卢比一年卢比十万的卢比,因为数据消费上升,物联网(物联网),Jio连接很多人到视频,人们愿意花更多的钱。所以,如果你可以把这个卢比十万的卢比,你把池3 - 4播放器市场,我认为经济将开始工作,尽管费率将保持在较低水平。
有任何情况下的财务软件行业吗?
我不这么认为。最后你需要业务决策和采取相关的风险。有些地方你去对的,一些是错误的。我不认为这个行业正处于一个临界点的任何危机行业包是必需的。
Jio开始收费。汇率战争的结束吗?你将如何应对?
不不。他们已经宣布的费率是咄咄逼人。我们必须做出回应。我们必须做更多的包,你必须加入更多的数据。
想法已经发布了它的首次净亏损。Airtel看其首次在第四季度净亏损?
有大量的频谱购买,已支付或将在一段时间内支付。有一个相关的利息。还有频谱贬值了5%,因为这是一个20年的频谱。这两个项目是一个新的行业上的负载。想法是victime也。另一个是你的资本支出。我们把去年在85000个站点,这将(通过Matrch),我们将把同样的。这意味着大量的折旧会积累。
如果你看这些,你可能是负值,但你必须看到自由现金流。我不会太过担心的想法,尽管他们的净亏损,因为你仍然有一个积极的自由现金流。息税前利润-资本支出是最重要的数据。
所以,即使Airtel帖子在这个季度净亏损,你就不会太担心了吗?
我不认为我们将进入一个损失,但你永远不能说永远,但是我们已经加满大量的光谱,我们必须支付利息,我们有接近50亿美元的息税前利润,产生十亿美元的自由现金流。而资本回报率(RoCE)变得惨淡,在个位数,Airte资产负债表仍很健康和强壮。
退出非洲放在桌子上?考虑到在印度的压力。
不。非洲不是一个负载印度。非洲目前近34亿美元的收入和8亿美元再加上Ebitda。它花费约6亿美元的资本支出。所以,在某种意义上它生成一个免费的经营性现金流。在非洲的大部分债务债券。总的来说,非洲是照顾自己。
会希望看到更高的回报?绝对是的。
你在看整合在非洲吗?
我们将看一些国家,我们认为市场重组是非常重要的,我们可以收购或合并。
哪些国家在非洲?
无论我们没有排在前两位。没有太多的国家。有什么意义的说卢旺达作为第三运营商的人口是1200万,你知道你永远不会让它。孟加拉国是一个很好的例子。
Airtel的资本支出将在未来一年,考虑到市场状况在印度吗?
我们将不得不加快资本支出花费。4 g部署将加速。可能超过这个财政年度。
是新的费率Jio宣布一个新的行业正常吗?
如果人们可以支付每月Rs311成为常态,这是当前ARPU两倍。
但更多的数据在这个价格…
幸好不是线性的成本数据。您可以添加更多的数据现有的频谱,由于技术。如果我有2000 terrabits能力和我搬到5000 terrabits,我必须双我的投资吗?不,这是可能多出20%。
你失望的电信部门已经在过去的两年里?
将12个运营商是一个错误的决定。世界各国已经错了。但好消息是政府都意识到这一乐动扑克点。他们需要巩固。
依赖Jio是带着巨大的内容。是一个方向你想进入吗?
不,我们的哲学是有点不同。我们愿与内容提供商合作。我们希望是中性的内容。不会对收购感兴趣的媒体空间。
什么是develeraging选项表来降低债务?
我们不公开的关注。每当我们可以卖一些塔股份,我们将出售,但这是一个公司坚实的自由现金流。我们希望利率(点支付)更低但没有契约。这是约60亿美元。57.5亿美元的海外债券。银行继续向我们走来借钱给我们更多的钱但我们不把它。市场是公开的关注它。我们不关心它。
我们希望是Ebitda 2.5债务,这将给我们一些空间。现在我们可能不到3。但所有其他运营商在印度5 - 6。
有什么进展鼓吹股权出售吗?
我们已经成立了一个委员会。但是这Voda-Idea合并的消息之后,我们已经看到了37年的股乐动扑克票。希望在下次董事会会议(4月第四季度收益的)我们将推出一些决定。
我们没有采取任何决定在多数或少数。所有这些决定都需要爱意依然悬而未决。
只是KKR在跑步吗?或者有更多的吗?
我们有几个政党的兴趣。KKR一直领先。ATC不是一个人。ATC竞争网络运行。他们不能买股票进入我们的网络。其他的都是私人股本类型。
Telenor收购,你可能需要返回一些频谱在某些圈子里,因为他们违反频谱限制。
只有在比哈尔,2 - 3%。但此次合并经过的时候,我们将以下限制。随着Jio开始,第一季度本身,例如他们会说10%的份额,每个人的分享会自动下降。
你同意一旦Jio开始充电,它们的用户基础将会降下来吗?
使用会下来。由于双西姆斯,那么你将有两个主要的运营商的西姆斯在这两个时段对大多数用户。我不认为客户的数量将会下降,但使用的转移到他们的身边,他们是免费的,将会得到缓和。
是互连的点(PoI)问题解决了吗?
PoIs几乎解决了。我认为这个问题很好和休息,但是不知道它死了。一个或两个圆可能仍然有问题,像奥里萨邦。它是固定的。
互连不能一个工具,任何人都可以使用它来阻止竞争。需要这么多的问题是如此之快。
火车已经推出一个新的纸互连,费率,掠夺性定价。你的第一反应。
我的观点是,监管机构需要一个长期的愿景。你不能做事时断时续。太多的活动发生在一个被动的方式。我很高兴,火车是调用行业,专家看长期路线图,例如费率,互连,掠夺性定价,CECN(关闭用户网络。)
火车的责任,有一个友好的风中相依的运营商,有更少的噪音和系统中更多的工作。火车来了活着的这些问题。
我唯一的希望是,这些建议来的时候,他们没有土地我们进一步斑点的诉讼。
你认为将印度的计划5克吗?
实验已经开始。在你休息一下从3 g或4 g, 5 g的土地。我认为5克将在2020 - 2021年敲门,但它看起来像2019年现在,你将开始看到一些网络产品(全球),包括手机的可用性。2020年,你会看到大量的行动。
在印度,我的观点是5 g是在物联网中的应用。和物联网在印度需要发展更多的一部分。它仍然是身后。
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