It’s getting complicated for investors in semiconductor<\/a> stocks, with last year’s big chip shortage morphing into an inventory glut for some companies, and others getting caught up in geopolitics.
The Covid-19 pandemic spurred an unprecedented supply crunch, shutting down semiconductor factories while also fueling demand for consumer electronics. Now, some chipmakers are warning of cooling demand for parts used in PCs<\/a> and smartphones, while carmakers continue to wrestle with a shortfall of certain chips.
Another fly in the ointment is renewed tensions between the US and China over the Asian nation’s burgeoning semiconductor industry, with equipment giant ASML Holding NV<\/a> caught in the middle.
“Supply constraints are not being felt equally,” said Angelo Zino, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research<\/a>. “The biggest customers are getting priority (Apple<\/a>, data center players) while more fragmented industries that are not as relevant to the chip industry (industrials, autos) are being pushed to the backburner.”
The complicated supply situation, higher interest rates and possible recession have all contributed to a chip-stock slump this year. A 37% rout for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, has wiped out about $1.4 trillion in market value.
![\"\"](\"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
Smartphones, Tablets, Computers
<\/strong>Consumer electronics look most vulnerable to an oversupply issue, with Micron<\/a> Technology Inc. cautioning last week of slowing demand for memory chips used in computers and smartphones. The company will cut spending on new plants and equipment to slow output.
Still, Samsung<\/a> Electronics Co.’s better-than-expected jump in quarterly revenue is a good sign for consumer demand and sparked a rally for beaten-down Asian chipmakers. All eyes will be on computer processor giant Intel<\/a> Corp. when it reports later this month. Intel has slumped 28% this year, while Micron is down 38%.
Production of chips used in premium and mid-tier 5G devices<\/a> has also outstripped demand, according to Counterpoint Research. Most of these smartphone chipsets, like application processors, system-on-chip chipsets and basebands are made by Qualcomm Inc., Apple Inc., MediaTek<\/a> Inc. and Samsung. Qualcomm is down 31% this year and MediaTek has tumbled 47%.
Auto Chips<\/strong>
Chips used in autos are still recovering from Covid-driven shortages. General Motors Co. said it expects second-quarter results to take a hit due to issues with certain components. Things may be looking up, however, with chip delivery times falling by a day in June.
The bulk of chips used in car production come from NXP Semiconductors NV, Infineon Technologies AG, Renesas Electronics Corp., Texas Instruments Inc. and STMicroelectronics NV. These stocks as down between 16% and 45% this year.
“Cars are becoming data centers on wheels, and electric vehicles use four times as many chips as regular cars,” said John Barr, portfolio manager at Needham Investment Management. “The auto industry is still short parts, and I think that with growth in EVs, you’ll continue to see strong growth here.”
Data Centers, AI<\/strong>
Demand for high-powered processors used in data centers has been more resilient than smartphone and tablet chips so far, but is still fragile.
“We don’t know how stable enterprise demand is for data center, or what auto\/industrial chip demand looks like,” said Jordan Klein, a managing director and tech analyst at Mizuho Securities. “Those have been strong, and while they could be holding up better, there’s a risk we could see order cuts or demand soften.”
Nvidia<\/a> Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Micron and Intel all make data-center chips. Nvidia and AMD have both fallen nearly 50% this year, erasing a combined $409 billion off their market value.
Graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence may hold up better than other areas, according to Needham’s Barr. Meta Platforms Inc. will still require five times as many GPUs for its AI initiatives, despite broader headwinds faced by the company. “The general trend of more AI demand and usage is going to go unabated,” Barr said.
Chip Equipment Makers<\/strong>
Crucial for all chipmakers is the complex equipment they rely on. That area has gotten harder to navigate this week, after Bloomberg News reported that the US is pushing the Netherlands to ban ASML from selling some of its tools to China. Shares of the Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker have declined 39% this year.
While analysts generally agreed that a complete stop on ASML exporting all deep ultraviolet lithography systems to China is unlikely, geopolitics “can easily scare investors,” said Degroof analyst Michael Roeg.
Any ban or escalation of tensions could also hurt peers such as Applied Materials Inc., which derives 25-30% of its sales from China, Bloomberg Intelligence said, while a protracted battle between Washington and Beijing over equipment could further disrupt shaky supply chains.
The next catalyst for the industry is earnings season, where investors will be watching for clues on supply and demand challenges.
Tech Chart of the Day<\/strong>
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由Subrat Patnaik和瑞安Vlastelica
对投资者越来越复杂了半导体股票,与去年的大芯片短缺变成一些公司的库存过剩,和其他人卷入地缘政治。
Covid-19流行病引发前所未有的供应危机,关闭半导体工厂同时也加剧了对消费类电子产品的需求。现在,一些芯片制造商警告对部分用于冷却需求个人电脑和智能手机,而汽车制造商继续对付一个特定芯片的不足。
另一个美中不足的是美国和中国之间的紧张关系再度亚洲国家新兴的半导体产业,与设备巨头ASML Holding NV夹在中间。
“供应限制不是感受到同样的,”安吉洛Zino说,资深股票分析师CFRA研究。“最大的客户得到优先级(苹果,数据中心的球员),而更为分散的行业不相关的芯片产业(工业、汽车)被逼到了次要位置。”
复杂的供应情况下,更高的利率和可能的经济衰退都促成了今年chip-stock衰退。费城半导体指数重挫37%,或袜,消灭了大约1.4万亿美元的市场价值。
这里有一个细分行业的供应的难题:
智能手机、平板电脑、电脑
消费电子产品看起来最容易受到一个供过于求的问题,微米技术inc .)上周提醒需求放缓的内存芯片用于电脑和智能手机。新厂房和设备公司将削减支出放缓输出。
尽管如此,三星电子有限公司的季度收入增幅的预期是一个好迹象对消费者需求,引发了一场集会创亚洲芯片制造商。所有的注意力都将集中在计算机处理器巨头英特尔公司本月晚些时候的报告。英特尔今年已下跌28%,而微米下降了38%。
生产中使用的芯片溢价和中间层5 g设备也超过了需求,根据对比研究。大多数的智能手机芯片组,诸如应用程序处理器,soc芯片、基带是由高通(qcom . o:行情),苹果(aapl . o:行情)。联发科公司和三星。高通和联发科今年下降了31%已下跌47%。
汽车芯片
芯片用于汽车仍恢复Covid-driven短缺。通用汽车公司(General Motors co .)表示,预计第二季度业绩遭受损失由于问题与特定的组件。事情可能会好起来,然而,随着芯片交货时间在6月份下降了一天。
用于汽车生产的芯片的大部分来自NXP半导体公司,瑞萨电子公司,英飞凌科技公司(Infineon Technologies AG)股价德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments inc .)和意法半导体公司股价。这些股票今年下跌16%至45%。
“车轮上的汽车正在成为数据中心,电动汽车使用四倍芯片作为常规的汽车,”约翰·巴尔说,李约瑟投资管理公司投资组合经理。“汽车行业仍然是短的部分,我认为,在电动汽车的增长,你会继续强劲增长。”
数据中心,人工智能
对高性能处理器用于数据中心的需求比智能手机和平板电脑芯片更有弹性,到目前为止,但仍然很脆弱。
“我们不知道如何稳定企业需求为数据中心,或汽车/工业芯片需求是什么样子,”乔丹Klein说,瑞穗证券董事总经理和技术分析师。“那些一直很强劲,虽然他们可能要好,我们可以看到有一个风险订单削减或软化的需求。”
英伟达Corp .)高级微设备公司,微米和英特尔制造数据中心芯片。英伟达和AMD今年下跌近50%,消除总计4090亿美元的市场价值。
图形处理单元(gpu)人工智能可以举起比其他领域,根据李约瑟巴尔。元平台公司将仍然需要5倍gpu的AI举措,尽管广泛的公司面临的阻力。“人工智能需求的总体趋势和使用会有增无减,”巴尔说。
芯片设备制造商
所有芯片制造商的关键是他们依赖复杂的设备。本周该地区变得难以驾驭,彭博新闻报道后,美国正在推动荷兰禁止ASML向中国出售它的一些工具。乐动扑克荷兰半导体设备制造商的股价已经下跌39%。
尽管分析师普遍认为,一个完整的停在ASML向中国出口所有深紫外线光刻系统是不可能的,地缘政治”很容易吓到投资者,“Degroof分析师Michael Roeg说。
任何禁止或紧张升级也可以伤害同伴等应用材料公司,25 - 30%的销售额来自中国,彭博社的情报说,华盛顿和北京之间旷日持久的斗争在设备可能会进一步破坏不稳定的供应链。
第二催化剂行业的财报季,投资者将密切关注的线索在供给和需求的挑战。
技术图表
亚洲的晶片后股价周四有一个缓刑三星击败了希望,该行业的崩溃可能已经过度。彭博社规的集团股价上涨3.5%,最近四个月,三星和台湾半导体制造公司贡献最获得。美国同行也市场上涨。
对投资者越来越复杂了半导体股票,与去年的大芯片短缺变成一些公司的库存过剩,和其他人卷入地缘政治。
Covid-19流行病引发前所未有的供应危机,关闭半导体工厂同时也加剧了对消费类电子产品的需求。现在,一些芯片制造商警告对部分用于冷却需求个人电脑和智能手机,而汽车制造商继续对付一个特定芯片的不足。
另一个美中不足的是美国和中国之间的紧张关系再度亚洲国家新兴的半导体产业,与设备巨头ASML Holding NV夹在中间。
“供应限制不是感受到同样的,”安吉洛Zino说,资深股票分析师CFRA研究。“最大的客户得到优先级(苹果,数据中心的球员),而更为分散的行业不相关的芯片产业(工业、汽车)被逼到了次要位置。”
复杂的供应情况下,更高的利率和可能的经济衰退都促成了今年chip-stock衰退。费城半导体指数重挫37%,或袜,消灭了大约1.4万亿美元的市场价值。
智能手机、平板电脑、电脑
消费电子产品看起来最容易受到一个供过于求的问题,微米技术inc .)上周提醒需求放缓的内存芯片用于电脑和智能手机。新厂房和设备公司将削减支出放缓输出。
尽管如此,三星电子有限公司的季度收入增幅的预期是一个好迹象对消费者需求,引发了一场集会创亚洲芯片制造商。所有的注意力都将集中在计算机处理器巨头英特尔公司本月晚些时候的报告。英特尔今年已下跌28%,而微米下降了38%。
生产中使用的芯片溢价和中间层5 g设备也超过了需求,根据对比研究。大多数的智能手机芯片组,诸如应用程序处理器,soc芯片、基带是由高通(qcom . o:行情),苹果(aapl . o:行情)。联发科公司和三星。高通和联发科今年下降了31%已下跌47%。
汽车芯片
芯片用于汽车仍恢复Covid-driven短缺。通用汽车公司(General Motors co .)表示,预计第二季度业绩遭受损失由于问题与特定的组件。事情可能会好起来,然而,随着芯片交货时间在6月份下降了一天。
用于汽车生产的芯片的大部分来自NXP半导体公司,瑞萨电子公司,英飞凌科技公司(Infineon Technologies AG)股价德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments inc .)和意法半导体公司股价。这些股票今年下跌16%至45%。
“车轮上的汽车正在成为数据中心,电动汽车使用四倍芯片作为常规的汽车,”约翰·巴尔说,李约瑟投资管理公司投资组合经理。“汽车行业仍然是短的部分,我认为,在电动汽车的增长,你会继续强劲增长。”
数据中心,人工智能
对高性能处理器用于数据中心的需求比智能手机和平板电脑芯片更有弹性,到目前为止,但仍然很脆弱。
“我们不知道如何稳定企业需求为数据中心,或汽车/工业芯片需求是什么样子,”乔丹Klein说,瑞穗证券董事总经理和技术分析师。“那些一直很强劲,虽然他们可能要好,我们可以看到有一个风险订单削减或软化的需求。”
英伟达Corp .)高级微设备公司,微米和英特尔制造数据中心芯片。英伟达和AMD今年下跌近50%,消除总计4090亿美元的市场价值。
图形处理单元(gpu)人工智能可以举起比其他领域,根据李约瑟巴尔。元平台公司将仍然需要5倍gpu的AI举措,尽管广泛的公司面临的阻力。“人工智能需求的总体趋势和使用会有增无减,”巴尔说。
芯片设备制造商
所有芯片制造商的关键是他们依赖复杂的设备。本周该地区变得难以驾驭,彭博新闻报道后,美国正在推动荷兰禁止ASML向中国出售它的一些工具。乐动扑克荷兰半导体设备制造商的股价已经下跌39%。
尽管分析师普遍认为,一个完整的停在ASML向中国出口所有深紫外线光刻系统是不可能的,地缘政治”很容易吓到投资者,“Degroof分析师Michael Roeg说。
任何禁止或紧张升级也可以伤害同伴等应用材料公司,25 - 30%的销售额来自中国,彭博社的情报说,华盛顿和北京之间旷日持久的斗争在设备可能会进一步破坏不稳定的供应链。
第二催化剂行业的财报季,投资者将密切关注的线索在供给和需求的挑战。
技术图表
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