Global investors are in for a treat. An extremely expensive game of one-upmanship is being played out in the semiconductor industry where the winners will look like heroes and the rest may not even survive.
All told, more than $700 billion has been pledged over the next decade to expand production capacity for the chips<\/a> that run smartphones, power data<\/a> centers, and one day will drive cars. Samsung Electronics Co.<\/a> is the latest show its hand, reporting third-quarter numbers that put it on track to post record spending for 2021 and setting it up for even more next year. In August the South Korean giant said it will bring forward plans to invest $150 billion on advanced chipmaking, joining Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.<\/a>, Intel Corp.<\/a>, Micron Technology Inc.<\/a> and SK Hynix Inc.<\/a> in a massive gamble that the world’s appetite for electronics will continue unabated. By comparison, those five companies shelled out just $70 billion in 2018.
This sudden hunger for capacity is being pinned on the recent component shortage that’s crimped automobile output and driven up prices. Yet the latest data on lead times between orders and delivery indicate this crisis has already peaked.
Beyond this short-term hiccup, executives are betting that a confluence of 5G mobile communications, artificial intelligence, and greater automation across industries including transport and manufacturing will create a sustained need for more chips.
They might be right, but that still doesn’t justify their ridiculous spending plans.
Instead, it seems nationalism and government interference are having an outsize influence on market forces, which will result in excessive expansion that won’t be matched by even the most bullish of demand scenarios.
Samsung said Thursday it plans to triple some capacity by 2026, which comes in the context of a bold blueprint outlined earlier this year by South Korean President Moon Jae-in aimed at keeping the nation’s place as a technology powerhouse. Between them, Samsung and SK Hynix expect to spend around $450 billion in the coming decade with more than 150 other companies as part of a coordinated effort to continue the development and production of semiconductors, which the government calls a “strategic weapon.”
Intel Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger<\/a> and Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra are determined not to let the U.S. fall behind either, and have spent much of this year lobbying Washington for handouts to fund their own expensive programs. Micron last week pledged $150 billion on factories and R&D over the next 10 years and made clear that it expects the government to give grants and tax breaks to help make that happen.
Gelsinger and his team have been less subtle about their demands. The 60-year-old, who returned to helm Intel after more than a decade away, is boosting spending by 30% this year to $19 billion and is likely to increase that figure three-fold over the next few years as he seeks to catch up with TSMC<\/a> and Samsung. But plans to develop a new factory on U.S. soil “would be very difficult” without the government doling out more than $50 billion of incentives outlined in the bipartisan CHIPS act that’s yet to pass the House, government relations chief Al Thompson told Bloomberg News last week.
Spending boom
<\/strong>
In the middle of this is global leader TSMC, which is being courted by governments around the world but would much rather keep its factories at home. Political pressure from Washington, coupled with generous enticements, left the Hsinchu-based company with little choice but to announce a new factory in Arizona, just down the road from one of Intel’s largest operations.
But company founder and former Chairman Morris Chang hasn’t minced words on U.S. hopes of revitalizing a sector that lends its name to Silicon Valley. Known as the Godfather of the local chip industry, Chang has repeatedly noted that high costs, a dearth of local suppliers, and comparative lack of talent puts the U.S. behind Taiwan and other nations. Gelsinger’s argument that the industry needs to be re-shored are driven by self-interest, Chang said this week in Taipei.
The problem for Intel and those in Washington is that Chang, himself a U.S. citizen, is not wrong. Intel fell behind in manufacturing technology, lost ground in computer processors to local rival Advanced Micro Devices<\/a> Inc. and was recently dumped by Apple Inc. Gelsinger is pinning his hopes of returning the company to relevance on a brash plan to expand capacity and enter the chip foundry business dominated by TSMC and Samsung. But to pay for it, as Thompson noted, the company needs American taxpayer help.
Seoul also doesn’t want to fall behind. While China is lagging in semiconductor technology, it may pose a threat in memory chips — the bread and butter of South Korea’s industry and a commodity product sold mostly on price. An onslaught of cheap components could strike a painful, though not fatal, blow to Samsung and SK Hynix. The natural response is to boost capacity and technology to stay ahead of the game, while also allowing it to move into new areas like telecommunications and AI.
But even with the looming adoption of more advanced semiconductors, there won’t be enough growth to cover the costs.
By my calculations, the top five semiconductor manufacturers — which between them account for half the market — will spend close to $150 billion on capex in 2023, almost double what they shelled out in 2019 and around 50% more than projections for this year. Yet, according to trade group WSTS, global semiconductor growth is likely to climb just 10% next year. Data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest even more sedate numbers with just 4% expansion next year and only 9% from 2021 to 2023.
We’re already seeing signs that supply is outpacing demand in memory, which this year will account for 29% of the chip market, resulting in falling prices.
If trade groups and analysts envision only modest growth in coming years, you can be sure industry executives do, too. That means their aggressive capacity expansion isn’t driven by a deep belief that the market is truly going to double in just four years, as their spending suggests, but that they’re in a desperate land grab hoping that size and capacity will be enough to muscle out rivals.
TSMC’s Chang is right that the lobbying efforts are driven by self-interest. But cheered on and funded by eager politicians, global semiconductor companies are accelerating toward a capex cliff. Let’s see who flinches first, and who plunges off the edge.
<\/body>","next_sibling":[{"msid":87325529,"title":"Hold Indus Towers, target price Rs 305: Emkay Global","entity_type":"ARTICLE","link":"\/news\/hold-indus-towers-target-price-rs-305-emkay-global\/87325529","category_name":null,"category_name_seo":"telecomnews"}],"related_content":[{"msid":"87325512","title":"iStock-500773792","entity_type":"IMAGES","seopath":"small-biz\/trade\/exports\/insights\/the-godfather-700-billion-and-a-crazy-game-of-chicken\/istock-500773792","category_name":"The godfather, $700 billion, and a crazy game of chicken","synopsis":"An onslaught of cheap components could strike a painful, though not fatal, blow to Samsung and SK Hynix. ","thumb":"https:\/\/etimg.etb2bimg.com\/thumb\/img-size-43802\/87325512.cms?width=150&height=112","link":"\/image\/small-biz\/trade\/exports\/insights\/the-godfather-700-billion-and-a-crazy-game-of-chicken\/istock-500773792\/87325512"}],"msid":87325544,"entity_type":"ARTICLE","title":"The godfather, $700 billion, and a crazy game of chicken","synopsis":"Beyond this short-term hiccup, executives are betting that a confluence of 5G mobile communications, artificial intelligence, and greater automation across industries including transport and manufacturing will create a sustained need for more chips.","titleseo":"telecomnews\/the-godfather-700-billion-and-a-crazy-game-of-chicken","status":"ACTIVE","authors":[],"analytics":{"comments":0,"views":184,"shares":0,"engagementtimems":763000},"Alttitle":{"minfo":""},"artag":"Bloomberg","artdate":"2021-10-28 09:29:38","lastupd":"2021-10-28 09:30:25","breadcrumbTags":["chips","tsmc","samsung electronics co.","intel corp.","taiwan semiconductor manufacturing co.","micron technology inc.","sk hynix inc.","Data","Devices","pat gelsinger"],"secinfo":{"seolocation":"telecomnews\/the-godfather-700-billion-and-a-crazy-game-of-chicken"}}" data-authors="[" "]" data-category-name="" data-category_id="" data-date="2021-10-28" data-index="article_1">
- Telecom乐动扑克News
- 5分钟读
教父,7000亿美元,和一个疯狂的老鹰捉小鸡的游戏
除此之外短期打嗝,高管们打赌5 g的融合移动通信、人工智能、自动化和更大的跨产业包括运输和制造将创建一个持续的需要更多的芯片。
读到
蒂姆•Culpan
全球投资者都在治疗。极其昂贵的要胜人一筹的游戏是在半导体行业的赢家将会看起来像英雄,其余甚至生存。
总计超过7000亿美元已经承诺在未来十年生产能力的扩张芯片智能手机,运行的权力数据中心,有一天会开车。三星电子有限公司是最新的摊牌,报告第三季度数据,把它放在跟踪发布创纪录的2021年支出和为明年更多的设置。韩国巨头表示,8月将提出计划投资1500亿美元在先进制造和加入台湾半导体制造有限公司,英特尔(intc . o:行情)。,美光科技有限公司和SK海力士公司。在一个巨大的赌博,世界对电子产品的需求将继续有增无减。相比之下,那些花了5家公司在2018年仅为700亿美元。
突然渴望能力被归咎于最近的组件短缺,卷曲的汽车产量和推高了价格。然而,最新数据之间的交货期的订单和交付表示这场危机已经见顶。
除此之外短期打嗝,高管们打赌5 g的融合移动通信、人工智能、自动化和更大的跨产业包括运输和制造将创建一个持续的需要更多的芯片。
他们也许是对的,但仍然没有证明他们可笑的支出计划。
相反,它似乎是民族主义和政府干预是对市场力量产生了巨大的影响,这将导致过度扩张,不会匹配需求,即使是最乐观的场景。
三星周四表示,计划到2026年三有些能力,哪个上下文中的一个大胆的蓝图概述了今年早些时候由韩国总统月球Jae-in旨在保持国家的地方成为一个技术强国。他们之间、三星和SK海力士希望在未来十年花费约4500亿美元与150多家其他公司的协调努力继续半导体的开发和生产,政府所谓的“战略武器。”
英特尔首席执行官Pat Gelsinger和微米首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra决心不让美国落后,和今年大部分时间都在游说华盛顿施舍来资助自己的昂贵的项目。微米上周承诺1500亿美元的工厂和研发未来10年,明确表示,它希望政府给补贴和税收减免来帮助实现它。
基辛格和他的团队对他们的要求就不那么微妙。60岁,十多年后回到执掌英特尔,今年支出增加30%到190亿美元,这一数字可能会增加3倍在接下来的几年里,他试图赶上台积电和三星。但计划开发一个新的工厂在美国土壤”很难“没有政府发放超过500亿美元的激励中两党芯片没有通过众议院的法案,政府关系主管Al汤普森上周告诉彭博新闻社。乐动扑克
消费热潮
在这是全球领先台积电,这是被世界各国政府追求但宁愿保持其国内工厂。来自华盛顿的政治压力,加上慷慨的诱惑,离开了Hsinchu-based公司别无选择,只能宣布一个新工厂在亚利桑那州,沿着这条路从一个英特尔最大的操作。
但公司创始人和前主席张忠谋没有碎词在美国一个行业振兴的希望把它的名字借给硅谷。称为当地芯片行业的教父,Chang一再指出,成本高,缺乏本地供应商,比较缺乏人才把美国在台湾和其他国家。基辛格的说法,这个行业需要re-shored由利益驱动,Chang在台北本周表示。
英特尔和那些在华盛顿的问题,自己是一个美国公民,不是错误的。英特尔在制造技术落后,失地当地竞争对手高级微计算机处理器设备Inc .)和最近被苹果(aapl . o:行情)倾倒。基辛格是寄托的希望返回公司相关的计划扩大产能,进入芯片代工业务由台积电和三星。但要付钱,汤普森指出,该公司需要美国纳税人的帮助。
首尔也不想落后。而中国是半导体技术落后,它可能在内存芯片构成威胁——韩国的产业的面包和黄油和商品产品销售主要依靠价格优势。便宜的组件可以罢工冲击的一个痛苦的,虽然不致命,打击三星和SK海力士。的自然反应是提高能力和技术领先的游戏,同时也允许它进入新电信和人工智能等领域。
但即使有迫在眉睫的采用更先进的半导体,将不会有足够的增长来弥补成本。
通过我的计算,它们之间的五大半导体制造商——占了一半的市场——将在2023年的资本支出将接近1500亿美元,他们花了近一倍,2019年超过预测今年50%左右。然而,根据贸易集团wst,全球半导体增长很可能爬明年仅为10%。彭博社采集数据显示,情报显示更稳重的数字只有明年增长4%,从2021年到2023年仅为9%。
我们已经看到有迹象显示,在内存中供给超过需求,今年将占29%的芯片市场,导致价格下降。
如果贸易组织和分析师设想只有温和的增长在未来几年,可以肯定的是业内高管也一样。这意味着他们不是积极扩充产能由深相信市场是真正在短短四年翻一番,作为他们的支出建议,但他们在绝望之地抓住希望的大小和能力足以肌肉的竞争对手。
台积电的常是正确的游说是由利益驱动的。但欢呼和由热切的政客,全球半导体公司正在加速走向资本支出悬崖。让我们看看谁先就会闪躲,暴跌的优势。
全球投资者都在治疗。极其昂贵的要胜人一筹的游戏是在半导体行业的赢家将会看起来像英雄,其余甚至生存。
总计超过7000亿美元已经承诺在未来十年生产能力的扩张芯片智能手机,运行的权力数据中心,有一天会开车。三星电子有限公司是最新的摊牌,报告第三季度数据,把它放在跟踪发布创纪录的2021年支出和为明年更多的设置。韩国巨头表示,8月将提出计划投资1500亿美元在先进制造和加入台湾半导体制造有限公司,英特尔(intc . o:行情)。,美光科技有限公司和SK海力士公司。在一个巨大的赌博,世界对电子产品的需求将继续有增无减。相比之下,那些花了5家公司在2018年仅为700亿美元。
突然渴望能力被归咎于最近的组件短缺,卷曲的汽车产量和推高了价格。然而,最新数据之间的交货期的订单和交付表示这场危机已经见顶。
除此之外短期打嗝,高管们打赌5 g的融合移动通信、人工智能、自动化和更大的跨产业包括运输和制造将创建一个持续的需要更多的芯片。
他们也许是对的,但仍然没有证明他们可笑的支出计划。
相反,它似乎是民族主义和政府干预是对市场力量产生了巨大的影响,这将导致过度扩张,不会匹配需求,即使是最乐观的场景。
三星周四表示,计划到2026年三有些能力,哪个上下文中的一个大胆的蓝图概述了今年早些时候由韩国总统月球Jae-in旨在保持国家的地方成为一个技术强国。他们之间、三星和SK海力士希望在未来十年花费约4500亿美元与150多家其他公司的协调努力继续半导体的开发和生产,政府所谓的“战略武器。”
英特尔首席执行官Pat Gelsinger和微米首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra决心不让美国落后,和今年大部分时间都在游说华盛顿施舍来资助自己的昂贵的项目。微米上周承诺1500亿美元的工厂和研发未来10年,明确表示,它希望政府给补贴和税收减免来帮助实现它。
基辛格和他的团队对他们的要求就不那么微妙。60岁,十多年后回到执掌英特尔,今年支出增加30%到190亿美元,这一数字可能会增加3倍在接下来的几年里,他试图赶上台积电和三星。但计划开发一个新的工厂在美国土壤”很难“没有政府发放超过500亿美元的激励中两党芯片没有通过众议院的法案,政府关系主管Al汤普森上周告诉彭博新闻社。乐动扑克
消费热潮
在这是全球领先台积电,这是被世界各国政府追求但宁愿保持其国内工厂。来自华盛顿的政治压力,加上慷慨的诱惑,离开了Hsinchu-based公司别无选择,只能宣布一个新工厂在亚利桑那州,沿着这条路从一个英特尔最大的操作。
但公司创始人和前主席张忠谋没有碎词在美国一个行业振兴的希望把它的名字借给硅谷。称为当地芯片行业的教父,Chang一再指出,成本高,缺乏本地供应商,比较缺乏人才把美国在台湾和其他国家。基辛格的说法,这个行业需要re-shored由利益驱动,Chang在台北本周表示。
英特尔和那些在华盛顿的问题,自己是一个美国公民,不是错误的。英特尔在制造技术落后,失地当地竞争对手高级微计算机处理器设备Inc .)和最近被苹果(aapl . o:行情)倾倒。基辛格是寄托的希望返回公司相关的计划扩大产能,进入芯片代工业务由台积电和三星。但要付钱,汤普森指出,该公司需要美国纳税人的帮助。
首尔也不想落后。而中国是半导体技术落后,它可能在内存芯片构成威胁——韩国的产业的面包和黄油和商品产品销售主要依靠价格优势。便宜的组件可以罢工冲击的一个痛苦的,虽然不致命,打击三星和SK海力士。的自然反应是提高能力和技术领先的游戏,同时也允许它进入新电信和人工智能等领域。
但即使有迫在眉睫的采用更先进的半导体,将不会有足够的增长来弥补成本。
通过我的计算,它们之间的五大半导体制造商——占了一半的市场——将在2023年的资本支出将接近1500亿美元,他们花了近一倍,2019年超过预测今年50%左右。然而,根据贸易集团wst,全球半导体增长很可能爬明年仅为10%。彭博社采集数据显示,情报显示更稳重的数字只有明年增长4%,从2021年到2023年仅为9%。
我们已经看到有迹象显示,在内存中供给超过需求,今年将占29%的芯片市场,导致价格下降。
如果贸易组织和分析师设想只有温和的增长在未来几年,可以肯定的是业内高管也一样。这意味着他们不是积极扩充产能由深相信市场是真正在短短四年翻一番,作为他们的支出建议,但他们在绝望之地抓住希望的大小和能力足以肌肉的竞争对手。
台积电的常是正确的游说是由利益驱动的。但欢呼和由热切的政客,全球半导体公司正在加速走向资本支出悬崖。让我们看看谁先就会闪躲,暴跌的优势。
评论
现在评论 阅读评论(1)所有评论
找到这个评论进攻?
下面选择你的理由并单击submit按钮。这将提醒我们的版主采取行动