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The United States on Thursday restricted exports to Russia<\/a> of a broad set of U.S.-made products as well as foreign-produced goods built with U.S. technology, following the invasion of Ukraine.
Here is how the rules are expected to affect U.S. tech companies, according to six experts on U.S. trade law.
What technology is newly restricted from export to Russia?
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U.S. companies must now obtain licenses to sell computers, sensors, lasers, navigation tools, and telecommunications, aerospace and marine equipment. The United States will deny almost all requests.
\"We expected something sweeping, and this was certainly sweeping,\" said Ama Adams, partner at law firm Ropes & Gray.
The new rules also force companies making tech products overseas with U.S. tools to seek a U.S. license before shipping to Russia.
A similar restriction was first applied in recent years to companies shipping to Chinese technology giant Huawei<\/a>, to great effect.
Which U.S. companies will be most impacted?
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Many companies may opt to suspend all sales to Russia out of caution, legal experts said.
U.S. exports to Russia were limited to about $6.4 billion last year, U.S. census data show, with machinery and vehicles among big categories in past years.
The most severe tech hits to Russia could come from curbs on foreign goods.
For example, the Semiconductor Industry Association<\/a> (SIA), which represents U.S. chipmakers, noted that \"Russia is not a significant direct consumer of semiconductors\" and that Russia's communications and tech spending \"totaled only about $25 billion out of the multi-trillion global market\" in 2019.
But many products made in Asia and destined for Russia include chips made with U.S. tooling. Over two dozen members of the European Union, as well as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, are imposing similar export restrictions to limit Russia's options.
How will Russia be affected?
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Emily Kilcrease, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former deputy assistant U.S. Trade Representative, said the restrictions will freeze Russia's technology where it is today.
\"You won't be able to get new tech into the country,\" she said.
William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International<\/a> Studies and a former Commerce Department<\/a> export official, expects a slow escalation of impact.
\"Eventually they will be hurting, but maybe not for months,\" he said. \"It's not an immediate body blow.\"
The curbs and sanctions are not as comprehensive as U.S. trade actions on Iran and North Korea, but they could have bigger consequences globally because Russia is more intertwined with the world economy, attorneys said.
What technology is not covered by new restrictions?
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The measures include carve-outs for consumer items such as household electronics, humanitarian goods, and technology necessary for flight safety. Cell phones are permitted as long as they are not sent to Russian government employees or certain affiliates.
Also not restricted are consumer encryption technologies, which one attorney described as a sign that the United States and its allies do not want to disrupt protesters and media.
Nothing precludes the U.S. from later extending sanctions to more items.
South Korea was not listed among countries partnering on the rules, and its assistance would be important for blocking Russia's access to chips from there, Kilcrease said.
A senior U.S. administration official said Thursday that more countries were expected to join.
The South Korean Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
South Korea said on Thursday it would join in unspecified multilateral economic sanctions on Russia in response to its military operations in Ukraine, but is not considering adopting unilateral measures.
Which companies could benefit from the new rules?
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Kilcrease and legal experts expect that Chinese technology companies may want to fill some voids created by restrictions on Western tech companies, though Kilcrease said the U.S. rules would discourage them. But the senior U.S. administration official said that China cannot supply Russian crucial military needs, especially for the most advanced chips.
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美国出口新规则旨在冻结俄罗斯科技
例如,美国半导体产业协会(SIA),代表美国芯片制造商表示,“俄罗斯不是一个重要的直接消费者的半导体”,俄罗斯的通信和科技支出“总计只有250亿美元至关重要的全球市场”在2019年。
周四美国限制出口俄罗斯一组广泛的美国制造的产品以及foreign-produced商品建立与美国技术,入侵后,乌克兰。
这是规则将如何影响美国的科技公司,根据六个美国贸易法专家。
新限制从出口到俄罗斯的技术是什么?
美国公司现在必须获得许可证销售电脑、传感器、激光、导航工具,和电信、航空航天和海洋设备。美国将拒绝几乎所有的请求。
“我们将全面的东西,当然这是彻底的,“Ama亚当斯说,Ropes & Gray律师事务所合伙人。
新规则也迫使企业海外生产科技产品与美国工具寻求美国许可之前船运到俄罗斯。
类似的限制是近年来应用于公司航运中国科技巨头华为,并取得了极佳的效果。
美国公司将影响最大?
许多公司可能会选择暂停所有销售到俄罗斯的谨慎,法律专家说。
美国对俄罗斯的出口限制在去年约64亿美元,美国人口普查数据显示,机械和车辆在过去几年大类别。
最严重的技术冲击对俄罗斯可能来自限制外国商品。
例如,半导体行业协会(SIA),代表美国芯片制造商表示,“俄罗斯不是一个重要的直接消费者的半导体”,俄罗斯的通信和科技支出“总计只有250亿美元至关重要的全球市场”在2019年。
但是很多产品在亚洲和运往俄罗斯包括芯片由美国工具。在24个欧盟成员国,以及英国、加拿大、日本、澳大利亚和新西兰,实施类似的出口限制限制俄罗斯的选项。
俄罗斯将如何影响?
艾米丽Kilcrease,新美国安全中心高级研究员、前副助理美国贸易代表表示,这些限制将冻结在今天俄罗斯的技术。
“你无法得到新的科技,”她说。
William Reinsch贸易中心的战略专家国际研究和前商务部出口官员预计缓慢升级的影响。
“最终,他们将伤害,但也许不是几个月,”他说。“这不是立即重击”。
限制和制裁不像美国贸易全面行动对伊朗和朝鲜,但他们可以有更大的影响在全球范围内,因为俄罗斯是更多的与世界经济交织在一起,律师说。
不受新限制是什么技术?
这些措施包括剥离等消费品的家用电器,人道主义物资和技术所必需的飞行安全。手机是允许的,只要它们不是发送到俄罗斯政府雇员或某些子公司。
也不限制消费者加密技术,一个律师描述为标志,美国及其盟友不希望扰乱抗议者和媒体。
从后来没有排除了美国制裁扩展到更多的物品。
韩国没有列入国家合作的规则,和援助将会阻止俄罗斯访问重要的芯片从那里,Kilcrease说。
美国政府一位高级官员周四表示,预计将有更多的国家加入。
韩国驻华盛顿大使馆没有立即回复记者的置评请求。
韩国周四表示将加入未指明的多边经济制裁俄罗斯乌克兰的军事行动,但不考虑采取单边措施。
哪些公司可以受益于新的规则?
Kilcrease和法律专家预计,中国技术公司可能希望填补一些孔隙由限制西方科技公司,尽管Kilcrease说,美国规则会阻止他们。但美国政府高级官员说,中国不能供应俄罗斯至关重要的军事需求,尤其是对最先进的芯片。
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